Give Walker and/or Giddens some minutes

[BballTim]

I feel like of all the major leagues, the NBA Champ is most often the best team. certainly injury can rear its head, but momentum is less of a factor.

If you win an NBA TItle, you are almost certainly the better team.

  I think that experience counts more in basketball than in other sports. Teams generally progress through later rounds of the playoffs over a series of a few years as opposed to winning their first time out.

[BballTim]

How are they not in a perfect position for the playoffs if they add both a long, jump-shooting backup F/C and a dribble-penetration, playmaking, scoring PG?

I'm just curious. The team is on pace for 65 wins, which is a remarkable number. Their team defense is stout and their team offense is dramatically improved.

Winning the home court will be tough this year, but Cleveland is on pace for around a 20+ game improvement and its hard to argue fault in not expecting them to best a 65 win season.

How are they not in a solid position entering the playoffs if they have their health and have added quality depth at their two key need positions?

I have no idea what your logic is at this point...the team is playing very well - had two statistically improbable losses to LAL and SA, and is bolstering their lineup with more vets....unless you are making the veteran wing THE linchpin hole that will cause defeat, I just don't get it...

Not to speak for CoachBo, but he's probably looking at the fact that Cleveland came within minutes of beating us in last year's playoffs.  Since that time, they have upgraded their team significantly, and we have replaced Posey, Brown, and Cassell with Mikki Moore and two rookies that don't play. 

  The team grew/improved as the playoffs went on. We were a better team against Detroit than we were against Cleveland and a better team against LA than we were against Detroit. Atlanta took us to 7 games. If we'd replayed that series after the LA series we might have blown them out 7 times in a row. The team's more used to playing together than they were last year. They have the confidence and experience of nba champions. Rondo has improved significantly and is still improving. These are arguably as significant as any upgrades Cleveland or LA made.
 

That's hard to really say conclusively IMO regarding our improvement over the course of the playoffs.

to me, CLE was the second best team last year. did we really improve that much or were DET and LA inferior to CLE?

  They won 45 games last year, they had a negative scoring differential and they lost 2 games vs Washington in the playoffs when Arenas was only averaging 11 points a game. What besides their performance against us led you to believe that they were the 2nd best team in the league?

[Roy Hobbs]

Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

True.  However, it's also unlikely that Lebron comes out and shoots a combined 8-for-42 in the first two games of a playoff series this year, like he did last season.

We've gone pretty far afield here, though.  Right now, our playoff options to give Pierce and/or Ray rest are:  1) a banged up Scal, 2) a banged up and rusty Tony Allen, 3) a swingman we pluck off the garbage heap, or 4) Bill Walker.  I think the team needs to pick an option soon, and commit to it fully.  Since I don't see #3 happening, I'd go with #4.

[winsomme]

How are they not in a perfect position for the playoffs if they add both a long, jump-shooting backup F/C and a dribble-penetration, playmaking, scoring PG?

I'm just curious. The team is on pace for 65 wins, which is a remarkable number. Their team defense is stout and their team offense is dramatically improved.

Winning the home court will be tough this year, but Cleveland is on pace for around a 20+ game improvement and its hard to argue fault in not expecting them to best a 65 win season.

How are they not in a solid position entering the playoffs if they have their health and have added quality depth at their two key need positions?

I have no idea what your logic is at this point...the team is playing very well - had two statistically improbable losses to LAL and SA, and is bolstering their lineup with more vets....unless you are making the veteran wing THE linchpin hole that will cause defeat, I just don't get it...

Not to speak for CoachBo, but he's probably looking at the fact that Cleveland came within minutes of beating us in last year's playoffs.  Since that time, they have upgraded their team significantly, and we have replaced Posey, Brown, and Cassell with Mikki Moore and two rookies that don't play. 

  The team grew/improved as the playoffs went on. We were a better team against Detroit than we were against Cleveland and a better team against LA than we were against Detroit. Atlanta took us to 7 games. If we'd replayed that series after the LA series we might have blown them out 7 times in a row. The team's more used to playing together than they were last year. They have the confidence and experience of nba champions. Rondo has improved significantly and is still improving. These are arguably as significant as any upgrades Cleveland or LA made.
 

That's hard to really say conclusively IMO regarding our improvement over the course of the playoffs.

to me, CLE was the second best team last year. did we really improve that much or were DET and LA inferior to CLE?

  They won 45 games last year, they had a negative scoring differential and they lost 2 games vs Washington in the playoffs when Arenas was only averaging 11 points a game. What besides their performance against us led you to believe that they were the 2nd best team in the league?

they handled Wash pretty easily and their defense. DET and LA played no where near as tough defense as CLE did.

[Cman]

I am highly skeptical that retaining Posey or adding a Matt Barnes or Michael Finley would have off-set Cleveland's addition of Mo Williams.

Further, I think Moore is about as good a big man addition as there was available in the off-season. True, they could have paid Joe Smith nearly 4 million a year themselves over 2 years, but I don't think he's worth it - especially when Rasheed Wallace or another player of greater impact may have had to be bypassed in order to do so.

Finally, I think its extremely presumptuous to say with certainly that this team is "worse" than last year when their are so many factors playing into the perceived narrowing of the gap between LAL/CLE and BOS.

I don't think a couple of losses to those teams constitutes a definitive proof of anything for one. In the playoffs both Cleveland and LA had games against us where they were equally as good as the two recent regular season losses.

I also think its quite obvious that the Celtics starting unit is much better than last year - they are more diverse in their attack offensive and have seen substantial improvement from 3 out of 5 players.

Considering the record of the team is very similar if not identical, I think much of this "we're worse" stuff comes only from the losses to SA/LAL/CLE and has little to do with anything else.

Roy, as the stats guy, could you please find out what the average offensive and defensive production was from last year's bench relative to this years?

I don't think the team is producing fewer points or giving up many more in all actuality - i'm fairly certain that the bench has been nearly as productive as it was last year.

I'm going to throw it out there - I think that Boston is BETTER than last year right now...and will only continue to improve as they incorporate 2 new players to their rotation.

I believe that what we'e seen is a Laker team more dedicated to defense and a Cleveland team that added an All Star to their team. Boston was never going to get better in these two areas - unless you count Rondo's improvement as "adding an All Star."

So, I think we're a stronger team and that our chief competition is also stronger...what transpires in a series is anyone's guess, but I don't think there is any reason to doubt our ability to repeat as champions...we were a hairs-breath away from losing last year in the playoffs - that's usually how late-round series go.

Bill, some very interesting points. 
Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

Why do I bring this up?  Because it seems to me that a lot has to do with how the team is playing at any given time.  There are times when a team seems out-of synch, times when a team seems in-synch.  The GSW, entering the playoffs against Dallas a couple years ago, is a good example of a team "in-synch" at the right time.  If a team is deep enough, it can weather a slump from one of its main players.  It seems to me that this year, like last year, different players have been stepping up when a key player is in a slump or out with injury.  If the Cs can do this in the playoffs, then they have a shot.

Absolutely - the infamous "momentum" shall inevitably rear its head come June....health as always  will also play its part...

As for "who makes up those extra plays" I will stand up and state right now that Rondo, Ray, and Perk are going to make more plays than they did last year - I would put good money on those three making up for the big plays that Posey and PJ contributed.

The notion that its a one-for-one exchange with starter/bench is also a misnomer...the starters can and will be utilized differently with the bench group to factor in for the differences in roster...so its not like the "downgrades" to Posey and PJ will have to mirror the contributions of those two exactly to make up for their loss...sometimes it seems like people think like this...

Our best players are better and the bench may be getting a big time X-Factor to boot...this team is the only team in the NBA with 4 All Stars and certainly the only one with 4 first-option, team-leader types, (i'm counting Rondo in that group now.)

I just see a lot more emotion than logic in regards to this "we're worse" argument and I think a lot of the arguments are based on logic that assumes a great many things that are up for debate or opinion.

I feel like of all the major leagues, the NBA Champ is most often the best team. certainly injury can rear its head, but momentum is less of a factor.

If you win an NBA TItle, you are almost certainly the better team.

Absolutely.  I guess the question is, what probability do you assign to "almost certainly"?  Certainly not 100%, but certainly greater than 50%...

I don't want to get away from my bigger point, which was that one reason why we were a "hair's breadth" away from losing to Cleveland was because Ray Allen was in a slump.  No slump, and we don't even have this conversation....

BUT, perhaps even more importantly than that, at this point, I think Cleveland and LA are better teams than Boston.  It hurts me to say that, don't get me wrong.  Does the signing of Moore help? Yes, but it doesn't change the relative ranking -- it doesn't bump us above Cleveland and LA (nor would Smith, IMHO).  That said, do I think it is a slam dunk that the finals come down to Cleveland and LA?  No.  I think that Boston has a reasonable chance of beating both those teams.

[Cman]

Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

True.  However, it's also unlikely that Lebron comes out and shoots a combined 8-for-42 in the first two games of a playoff series this year, like he did last season.

We've gone pretty far afield here, though.  Right now, our playoff options to give Pierce and/or Ray rest are:  1) a banged up Scal, 2) a banged up and rusty Tony Allen, 3) a swingman we pluck off the garbage heap, or 4) Bill Walker.  I think the team needs to pick an option soon, and commit to it fully.  Since I don't see #3 happening, I'd go with #4.

Interesting point.  What series was that?

And I like your motion to get back on track with the OP.  Given the injury to Scal, I agree that getting a swingman has moved to priority #1 (I previously would have put a vet PG at priority #1).  Any suggestions for who gets picked off the garbage heap?  In another topic I floated the idea of Ruben Patterson.  He used to have solid D, but not so sure anymore.  The idea of Bonzi Wells is starting to sound interesting again...

[winsomme]

I am highly skeptical that retaining Posey or adding a Matt Barnes or Michael Finley would have off-set Cleveland's addition of Mo Williams.

Further, I think Moore is about as good a big man addition as there was available in the off-season. True, they could have paid Joe Smith nearly 4 million a year themselves over 2 years, but I don't think he's worth it - especially when Rasheed Wallace or another player of greater impact may have had to be bypassed in order to do so.

Finally, I think its extremely presumptuous to say with certainly that this team is "worse" than last year when their are so many factors playing into the perceived narrowing of the gap between LAL/CLE and BOS.

I don't think a couple of losses to those teams constitutes a definitive proof of anything for one. In the playoffs both Cleveland and LA had games against us where they were equally as good as the two recent regular season losses.

I also think its quite obvious that the Celtics starting unit is much better than last year - they are more diverse in their attack offensive and have seen substantial improvement from 3 out of 5 players.

Considering the record of the team is very similar if not identical, I think much of this "we're worse" stuff comes only from the losses to SA/LAL/CLE and has little to do with anything else.

Roy, as the stats guy, could you please find out what the average offensive and defensive production was from last year's bench relative to this years?

I don't think the team is producing fewer points or giving up many more in all actuality - i'm fairly certain that the bench has been nearly as productive as it was last year.

I'm going to throw it out there - I think that Boston is BETTER than last year right now...and will only continue to improve as they incorporate 2 new players to their rotation.

I believe that what we'e seen is a Laker team more dedicated to defense and a Cleveland team that added an All Star to their team. Boston was never going to get better in these two areas - unless you count Rondo's improvement as "adding an All Star."

So, I think we're a stronger team and that our chief competition is also stronger...what transpires in a series is anyone's guess, but I don't think there is any reason to doubt our ability to repeat as champions...we were a hairs-breath away from losing last year in the playoffs - that's usually how late-round series go.

Bill, some very interesting points. 
Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

Why do I bring this up?  Because it seems to me that a lot has to do with how the team is playing at any given time.  There are times when a team seems out-of synch, times when a team seems in-synch.  The GSW, entering the playoffs against Dallas a couple years ago, is a good example of a team "in-synch" at the right time.  If a team is deep enough, it can weather a slump from one of its main players.  It seems to me that this year, like last year, different players have been stepping up when a key player is in a slump or out with injury.  If the Cs can do this in the playoffs, then they have a shot.

Absolutely - the infamous "momentum" shall inevitably rear its head come June....health as always  will also play its part...

As for "who makes up those extra plays" I will stand up and state right now that Rondo, Ray, and Perk are going to make more plays than they did last year - I would put good money on those three making up for the big plays that Posey and PJ contributed.

The notion that its a one-for-one exchange with starter/bench is also a misnomer...the starters can and will be utilized differently with the bench group to factor in for the differences in roster...so its not like the "downgrades" to Posey and PJ will have to mirror the contributions of those two exactly to make up for their loss...sometimes it seems like people think like this...

Our best players are better and the bench may be getting a big time X-Factor to boot...this team is the only team in the NBA with 4 All Stars and certainly the only one with 4 first-option, team-leader types, (i'm counting Rondo in that group now.)

I just see a lot more emotion than logic in regards to this "we're worse" argument and I think a lot of the arguments are based on logic that assumes a great many things that are up for debate or opinion.

I feel like of all the major leagues, the NBA Champ is most often the best team. certainly injury can rear its head, but momentum is less of a factor.

If you win an NBA TItle, you are almost certainly the better team.

Absolutely.  I guess the question is, what probability do you assign to "almost certainly"?  Certainly not 100%, but certainly greater than 50%...

I don't want to get away from my bigger point, which was that one reason why we were a "hair's breadth" away from losing to Cleveland was because Ray Allen was in a slump.  No slump, and we don't even have this conversation....

BUT, perhaps even more importantly than that, at this point, I think Cleveland and LA are better teams than Boston.  It hurts me to say that, don't get me wrong.  Does the signing of Moore help? Yes, but it doesn't change the relative ranking -- it doesn't bump us above Cleveland and LA (nor would Smith, IMHO).  That said, do I think it is a slam dunk that the finals come down to Cleveland and LA?  No.  I think that Boston has a reasonable chance of beating both those teams.

i guess what i would say about Ray's shooting slump is that better teams compensate for a struggling player over the course of a 7 game series in basketball....that's just how i feel.

and that is what the Cs did last year. Ray struggled early and other players stepped up.

[Cman]

i guess what i would say about Ray's shooting slump is that better teams compensate for a struggling player over the course of a 7 game series in basketball....that's just how i feel.

and that is what the Cs did last year. Ray struggled early and other players stepped up.

I agree (and said as much in a post above). 

Coming back to the OP, I would love to see Giddens/ Walker get more minutes -- and chances are they will in the short term given Scal's injury -- but at this point I don't know how useful those two will be in the playoffs, and so it is probably time to look to sign a FA swingman...

[Roy Hobbs]

Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

True.  However, it's also unlikely that Lebron comes out and shoots a combined 8-for-42 in the first two games of a playoff series this year, like he did last season.

We've gone pretty far afield here, though.  Right now, our playoff options to give Pierce and/or Ray rest are:  1) a banged up Scal, 2) a banged up and rusty Tony Allen, 3) a swingman we pluck off the garbage heap, or 4) Bill Walker.  I think the team needs to pick an option soon, and commit to it fully.  Since I don't see #3 happening, I'd go with #4.

Interesting point.  What series was that?

And I like your motion to get back on track with the OP.  Given the injury to Scal, I agree that getting a swingman has moved to priority #1 (I previously would have put a vet PG at priority #1).  Any suggestions for who gets picked off the garbage heap?  In another topic I floated the idea of Ruben Patterson.  He used to have solid D, but not so sure anymore.  The idea of Bonzi Wells is starting to sound interesting again...

Lebron shot 8-for-42 in the first two games against us last year.  His slump may have off-set the Ray slump, which is why I don't put too much stock in it.

As for available options at the 3, there is Patterson (hasn't played in over a year, got cut by the Clippers, poor attitude and convicted of sexual assault) or Bonzi Wells (poor attitude, hasn't played at all this season. 

Kirk Snyder wouldn't be a terrible option as a stop gap.  He's  decent defender, and can play a role.  He's not really a great player (which is why he's currently out of the league), but he's dominating in China right now, and could contribute something.  Danny looked at him in the off-season, and there were rumors that he was going to be signed, so I'd add his name to the list.

[Cman]

Kirk Snyder wouldn't be a terrible option as a stop gap.  He's  decent defender, and can play a role.  He's not really a great player (which is why he's currently out of the league), but he's dominating in China right now, and could contribute something.  Danny looked at him in the off-season, and there were rumors that he was going to be signed, so I'd add his name to the list.

Thanks about the info for LeBron.  Well taken.

I share your worries about Patterson and Wells.  I had heard that Snyder was a possible FA option from an article that someone floated a few days back (Bonzi was mentioned in the same article), but isn't he still under contract with the team in China? 

[Roy Hobbs]

I had heard that Snyder was a possible FA option from an article that someone floated a few days back (Bonzi was mentioned in the same article), but isn't he still under contract with the team in China? 

He probably is, but I know that a lot of American agents work buyouts into contracts for NBA players, so it wouldn't shock me if Snyder had the ability to sign with an NBA team if the opportunity arose.

[Cman]

I had heard that Snyder was a possible FA option from an article that someone floated a few days back (Bonzi was mentioned in the same article), but isn't he still under contract with the team in China? 

He probably is, but I know that a lot of American agents work buyouts into contracts for NBA players, so it wouldn't shock me if Snyder had the ability to sign with an NBA team if the opportunity arose.

Snyder's stats: http://www.asia-basket.com/player.asp?Cntry=CHN&PlayerID=43951

In another article, it seems that Bonzi Wells' salary is in the neighborhood of $40K, so Snyder's is probably similar, so any contract buyout is probably cheap... http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-12/12/content_10497227.htm

I'm warming up to the idea of Snyder, and the fact that DA had a look at him in the offseason is encouraging.

[Mr October]

Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

True.  However, it's also unlikely that Lebron comes out and shoots a combined 8-for-42 in the first two games of a playoff series this year, like he did last season.

We've gone pretty far afield here, though.  Right now, our playoff options to give Pierce and/or Ray rest are:  1) a banged up Scal, 2) a banged up and rusty Tony Allen, 3) a swingman we pluck off the garbage heap, or 4) Bill Walker.  I think the team needs to pick an option soon, and commit to it fully.  Since I don't see #3 happening, I'd go with #4.

Yeah, I agree that Walker needs alot more burn maybe 6-8 minutes per half. We need him backing up the 3 while TA and Scal are on the mend.

As for Giddens. I've never actually seen him play, but it sounds like he just isn't ready for NBA basketball yet. Might as well give him a little time against teams like the Clips though. See what he has.

[CoachCowens]

I was looking for some video of Snyder in China and found this dunk against the lakers. Jumping over someone and dunking is twice as nice when it's against the lakers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYSqmfWLBUE&feature=related

[BudweiserCeltic]

Another angle to consider is that Ray's shots were just not falling for him in the Atlanta and Cleveland series, as I recall.  While the Cs were "a hair's breath away" from losing, one could argue that if Ray Allen was playing as Ray Allen, it wouldn't have been that close.

True.  However, it's also unlikely that Lebron comes out and shoots a combined 8-for-42 in the first two games of a playoff series this year, like he did last season.

We've gone pretty far afield here, though.  Right now, our playoff options to give Pierce and/or Ray rest are:  1) a banged up Scal, 2) a banged up and rusty Tony Allen, 3) a swingman we pluck off the garbage heap, or 4) Bill Walker.  I think the team needs to pick an option soon, and commit to it fully.  Since I don't see #3 happening, I'd go with #4.

Interesting point.  What series was that?

And I like your motion to get back on track with the OP.  Given the injury to Scal, I agree that getting a swingman has moved to priority #1 (I previously would have put a vet PG at priority #1).  Any suggestions for who gets picked off the garbage heap?  In another topic I floated the idea of Ruben Patterson.  He used to have solid D, but not so sure anymore.  The idea of Bonzi Wells is starting to sound interesting again...

Lebron shot 8-for-42 in the first two games against us last year.  His slump may have off-set the Ray slump, which is why I don't put too much stock in it.

As for available options at the 3, there is Patterson (hasn't played in over a year, got cut by the Clippers, poor attitude and convicted of sexual assault) or Bonzi Wells (poor attitude, hasn't played at all this season. 

Kirk Snyder wouldn't be a terrible option as a stop gap.  He's  decent defender, and can play a role.  He's not really a great player (which is why he's currently out of the league), but he's dominating in China right now, and could contribute something.  Danny looked at him in the off-season, and there were rumors that he was going to be signed, so I'd add his name to the list.

Pierce also had a poor start to the series. So while LeBron offsets Ray, Pierce gives the lead right back to us.