What the Scouts are Saying (About The Contending Teams)

[indeedproceed]

The Celtics missed the injured Tony Allen during the losing streak more than they missed Posey.

 

C's record in the seven games Tony Allen played pre-injury: 4 wins - 3 loses
C's record in the seven games after Tony Allen's injury: 4 wins - 3 loses

I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

Can you provide one example of that kind of evidence?

Actually no, I'm not good at making stats. I'm not even particularly good at reading them. But a lot of posters are completely convinced that Posey=more wins so far this season. as I said above, I don't think it would've mattered. I'd like someone to definitively try (which I understand is VERY hard to do with basketball) to settle the arguement.

[Rondo_is_better]

The Magic use 92.6 possessions per game. Boston uses 91. Is the difference really that big? The Lakers are more of an up-tempo team, they play 95 possessions per game. True run'n'gun teams, like the Warriors and the Knicks, use +97 poss per game.

Play-offs games are slower, but teams can be successful playing faster. But Orlando is more a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of pace. Even though up-tempo teams can have troubles executing half-court sets, I really don't think that's the case with Orlando. They're pretty comfortable playing a more grind-out game and they have a diversified game.

Manu missed around 15 games in the last 2 seasons. Parker has missed, I don't know... 3 or 4 games per year on average since joining the league? Duncan, I can't even remember the last time he missed a game because of an injury. 4 or 5 years ago? They're old, but they've been healthy; and their big 3 is younger than ours. Mason and Hill insulated some youth in their supporting cast.

YOu're right about Houston, their best players are very injury prone. But if they're healthy at the same time for a 2 months period - and it has happened before - they have a chance to compete for the title.

I personally have never seen the grind it out side of the Magic. Maybe its there, I don't know.

I'm not totally sure the numbers you reported about the Spurs are accurate. I would believe you if I saw the injury data from a primary source. TP if you can find that.

But still, assuming that your numbers are accurate, I don't think that data takes the whole scope of things into account. Manu was playing all throughout the playoffs, but his ankle was really messed up. He really struggled out on the court with his injury, and that hurt the spurs a lot. Just looking at the raw number of games missed isn't really enough, because players do play through injuries, and those injuries often make them much less effective.

Their big 3 is younger than ours, but their whole team is older on average. Also, Manu has a lot of miles on him due to the way he plays. Parker has also been in the league a long time, since he was drafted at age 18. He's what, 26 or 27 now? That's 8 or nine years pro.

[cordobes]

Players can't play through serious injuries. Every player in the league plays through minor injuries, not only the guys from San Antonio. And you do know for how long have KG/PP/RA been in the league and how much they played, right? Injuries can happen, but I don't see why should the Spurs be more worried than other teams (with the Rockets I can understand the concern). Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

Pace numbers are available in lots of sites. For example:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2009.html

They really don't run significantly more than Boston, I very much doubt anyone could notice by naked eye observation which team plays at a faster tempo.

[cordobes]

The Celtics missed the injured Tony Allen during the losing streak more than they missed Posey.

 

C's record in the seven games Tony Allen played pre-injury: 4 wins - 3 loses
C's record in the seven games after Tony Allen's injury: 4 wins - 3 loses

I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

Can you provide one example of that kind of evidence?

Actually no, I'm not good at making stats. I'm not even particularly good at reading them. But a lot of posters are completely convinced that Posey=more wins so far this season. as I said above, I don't think it would've mattered. I'd like someone to definitively try (which I understand is VERY hard to do with basketball) to settle the arguement.

It's not very hard, it's impossible. Can you prove we wouldn't be winless if Garnett wasn't on the team? Or that we wouldn't win every game by a 20 points margin? It's just a matter of common sense: better players generally win; Posey is much  better than everything we have on the bench by a fair margin; besides that, his skill-set fits plenty of this team needs; ergo there's a good chance our overall record would be better.

[Rondo_is_better]

Players can't play through serious injuries. Every player in the league plays through minor injuries, not only the guys from San Antonio. And you do know for how long have KG/PP/RA been in the league and how much they played, right? Injuries can happen, but I don't see why should the Spurs be more worried than other teams (with the Rockets I can understand the concern). Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

Pace numbers are available in lots of sites. For example:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ORL/2009.html

They really don't run significantly more than Boston, I very much doubt anyone could notice by naked eye observation which team plays at a faster tempo.

Players can't play through serious injuries, like broken bones, but there is a wide berth of injuries that you can play through, from a bruise to a pretty badly sprained ankle.

I trusted your numbers for the pace; it was the number of games that the Spurs players missed that I questioned. I recall Parker being out for a stretch last year, as well as Manu, and I also remember Duncan having injury problems more recently than 4-5 years ago. The TP offer still stands if you can prove yourself to be right on that issue.

You can't remember one of their players being injuried in the playoffs? You don't remember the interviews with Manu about his ankle, and the commentators harping on it? He was banged up pretty badly, and was just making a comeback for the playoffs.

[cordobes]

Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

I remember Manu's injury last season.

When have those injuries you're talking about happened?

[Rondo_is_better]

Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

I remember Manu's injury last season.

When have those injuries you're talking about happened?

I'm not totally, sure, and I don't really want to go look it up. If you look it up and prove to me that they didn't happen then TP for you.

[cordobes]

Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

I remember Manu's injury last season.

When have those injuries you're talking about happened?

I'm not totally, sure, and I don't really want to go look it up. If you look it up and prove to me that they didn't happen then TP for you.

LOL

Save the TP. You were the one making the claim that the Spurs players were injury-prone, right? I'd expect you to provide evidence for that and I really don't know how could one prove that Duncan has been relatively healthy throughout his career.

Anyway, if you don't have evidence for that and just made it up, that's fine with me.

[nickagneta]

cordobes is right again about Orlando having a chance to win it all and not being that effected by a slowed down pace. The reason the Celtics and Cavs are so dangerous in a slowed down tempo is not because of their pace but because of their offensive and defensive efficiency. Both are amongst the best in both. In a slowed up tempo where every single possession counts for somthing being efficient on both sides of the ball is paramount.

Orlando is fifth in Off. Eff. and third in Def. Eff.Boston is sixth and second and Cleveland second and first respectively. This means pace of the game will mean very little and that Orlando most definitely could win it all. Where I think the Magic will falter is that they aren't a great rebounding team. More possessions for Cleveland and Boston make them the favs in the east over Orlando.

[Rondo_is_better]

Because of Manu's injury last season? I can't even remember one of their players being injured during other playoffs.

I remember Manu's injury last season.

When have those injuries you're talking about happened?

I'm not totally, sure, and I don't really want to go look it up. If you look it up and prove to me that they didn't happen then TP for you.

LOL

Save the TP. You were the one making the claim that the Spurs players were injury-prone, right? I'd expect you to provide evidence for that and I really don't know how could one prove that Duncan has been relatively healthy throughout his career.

Anyway, if you don't have evidence for that and just made it up, that's fine with me.

Alright, wow. Way to be a Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.. So I don't have stats, and I don't want to look up things on the internet. That's no reason to just blatantly disrespect me. I don't know where to look for the stats and I don't feel like putting in a ton of effort to prove what I'm saying to you, because I have better things to do.

[kozlodoev]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

What is that schtick? That we miss Posey more than they expected? If that's what they are all saying, I really have to question it. At the halfway mark last year, we were 35-6. At the halfway mark this season, we were 32-9. Did they really value Posey's effect on Celtics so little that they're SURPRISED the team is -3 in the win column from last year with him gone? What kind of effect DID they expect the loss of Posey to have? 1 game? 2 games? NO games?

How anyone could perceive Posey's value as so marginal totally eludes me.

Maybe they expected the team would improve over last year's record? 

[Brickowski]

Posey made a great contribution to the Celtics last year.
This year, with the Hornets, his impact has been minimal.

A few regular season victories one way or the other mean little.  We won't know until playoff time if Posey would have been a difference maker for the Celtics this year.

My guess is that the Celtics will do just as well without him, but only time will tell.

BTW, the differences in record between this year and last have very little to do with Posey's absence, and everything to do with the fact that (1) teams like LA and Cleveland have improved, and (2) the Celtics' early season schedule did not permit them to get any rest.

[Scalablob990]

I think it's going to be a hell of a post season this year. Last
year IMO I thought we were going to win it easily after finishing 66-16 and beating most of the major competition during the season. The Lakers have improved, but we can still beat them. Cleveland poses the most threat, it would be an extremely close 7 games series again this year. Orlando will give us a run for our money, but we can beat them. Last but not least, the Hawks will probably make a guest appearance and they always go into another playing mode when they see us. I think the big three should realize we have even more to prove this year then last, and we're in for a tough ride down the road.

[indeedproceed]

Posey made a great contribution to the Celtics last year.
This year, with the Hornets, his impact has been minimal.

A few regular season victories one way or the other mean little.  We won't know until playoff time if Posey would have been a difference maker for the Celtics this year.

My guess is that the Celtics will do just as well without him, but only time will tell.

BTW, the differences in record between this year and last have very little to do with Posey's absence, and everything to do with the fact that (1) teams like LA and Cleveland have improved, and (2) the Celtics' early season schedule did not permit them to get any rest.

I don't do it often, but Brick I completely agree with you. TP

[EJPLAYA]

Posey made a great contribution to the Celtics last year.
This year, with the Hornets, his impact has been minimal.

A few regular season victories one way or the other mean little.  We won't know until playoff time if Posey would have been a difference maker for the Celtics this year.

My guess is that the Celtics will do just as well without him, but only time will tell.

BTW, the differences in record between this year and last have very little to do with Posey's absence, and everything to do with the fact that (1) teams like LA and Cleveland have improved, and (2) the Celtics' early season schedule did not permit them to get any rest.

I don't do it often, but Brick I completely agree with you. TP

There is no question that the W-L record this year haven't shown an improvement, but if you look at Posey's stats (10pts 5 boards on 48% fg%, 42% 3pt%, 83% FT%, ) all higher than last years numbers with us, the blame isn't on him. This was a team that overachieved last year and hasn't been completely healthy this year. To put that on Posey is absolute nonsense.

For the record I was against mortgaging the future to pay Posey that ridiculous amount of money. I just wished our replacement wasn't the horrid TA.