What the Scouts are Saying (About The Contending Teams)

[Rondo_is_better]

This was part of the weekend dime on ESPN.com. I read it, and found myself agreeing with some things and disagreeing with others. Here's the part about the contenders:

A handful of teams have already played 41 games. Everyone else isn't far off.

So ...

Just as we did after the first quarter of the season, we've reached out to four advance scouts (granting the condition of anonymity) to get their up-close views from courtside on some of the league's major developments halfway through the regular season.

West scout on how many teams are capable of winning it all:

"I've got five. Boston, Cleveland and L.A. are the obvious choices. And you still have to have San Antonio in that group. But I really think the best team in the league right now is Orlando.

"I absolutely think they're that good. They've got so much offensive firepower and they've improved so much defensively. Everybody on that team is a 3-point shooter spaced around the big monster [Dwight Howard] down low. How many teams have 6-9 guys [Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis] who can handle the ball in a pick-and-roll? Hedo's game has just gone to another level. He's making the game look easy.

"The East is going to hinge on who gets Orlando in the second round. And if it's Cleveland, I'm going to pick Orlando in that series. I might be crazy, but Cleveland likes to go small when they really want to score. But Orlando has Hedo at the 3, Rashard at the 4 and Howard at the 5. I'm going to have to pick the Magic just because of their size."

East scout on Orlando's secret weapon:

"Jameer Nelson is my favorite player on that team. He makes shots. He defends. And now he's making decisions. People look at his stats and only see 5.4 assists [per game] and think he can't really run a team. But you show me a point guard who plays with a big post-up threat [like Howard] who gets a lot of assists. He doesn't have the luxury that Chris Paul has, where his team is running 50 pick-and-rolls a game for him. No point guard wants to see Jameer Nelson right now."

East scout on the Lakers' secret weapon:

"They're very good. You can talk about their injuries and their [issues on] defense, but they're ridiculously good. [trevor] Ariza has really changed them. He's like a little version of Scottie Pippen now. Michael [Jordan] always had Scottie to chase guys around and now Ariza is filling that role for Kobe. The Lakers like to finish games with Ariza and he's making just enough jump shots for them to keep him out there. So now Kobe gets to guard the [lesser scorer] in the fourth quarter. He always used to have to take on the other team's big gun."

West scout on what happened to the Celtics after their 27-2 start:

"It's not a sprint. This is a marathon and you can't play at the level Boston likes to play at all year long. I think KG put his foot down a little too hard on the gas at the beginning and I think it caught up to them when they went out on the road and the schedule got a little tougher. They came out too hard out of the gate in the first 30 games. But they're going to be fine. They know how to win now, so they're going to be there. But I will say that the loss of [James] Posey does stick out a little more than I thought it would."

and here's the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-090117-18

Trevor Ariza as Scottie Pippen? Ehh, I don't know about that. Orlando as the best team in the league? When the game slows down in the playoffs, and they still find a way to win, call me. San Antonio, still a contender? I'll believe it when the enter the playoffs with their roster in reasonably good health, i.e. no ankle injury to Manu, no stress fracture for Duncan, etc.

Discuss!

Discuss.

[indeedproceed]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

The Orlando comment really bugs me though. And not that they don't deserve it, beating Denver, San An, LA (Lackers), and a back to back with Atlanta all in 12 days, thats impressive. But this whole "best team" thing is so transitory this season. First its LA, then its Cleveland, then its boston, then its cleveland, then its LA again..who cares?

Does Orlando beat Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series if everyone's centers are healthy? The answer as far as I can tell is still no.

[RebusRankin]

Ariza is nowhere near a mini Pippen. A better comparison would be Ron Harper.

[Rondo_is_better]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

What is that schtick? That we miss Posey more than they expected? If that's what they are all saying, I really have to question it. At the halfway mark last year, we were 35-6. At the halfway mark this season, we were 32-9. Did they really value Posey's effect on Celtics so little that they're SURPRISED the team is -3 in the win column from last year with him gone? What kind of effect DID they expect the loss of Posey to have? 1 game? 2 games? NO games?

How anyone could perceive Posey's value as so marginal totally eludes me.

[Brickowski]

I agree with the comments on Hedo.  He has become an all-star caliber player, whether or not he's selected. I wish the Celtics had him.

I think the Posey comment is just the conventional wisdom of guys who don't watch the team that much.  It's the sort of thing that Greg Anthony or one of the other basketball idiots on ESPN would say.  The Celtics missed the injured Tony Allen during the losing streak more than they missed Posey.

[indeedproceed]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

What is that schtick? That we miss Posey more than they expected? If that's what they are all saying, I really have to question it. At the halfway mark last year, we were 35-6. At the halfway mark this season, we were 32-9. Did they really value Posey's effect on Celtics so little that they're SURPRISED the team is -3 in the win column from last year with him gone? What kind of effect DID they expect the loss of Posey to have? 1 game? 2 games? NO games?

How anyone could perceive Posey's value as so marginal totally eludes me.

I didn't say anything about Posey. I was referencing the too fast a start but they'll be ok part. When I said schtick was more talking about how thats what just about everyone is saying. But now that you mention it...

The thought that James Posey being on the squad = three more wins up to this point completely eludes me. I don't think James Posey would've changed a thing so far this season. I also don't think we'll truly feel just how much we miss him until the playoffs, when the losses really count, and the steadying hand and defensive versatility will be missed most. I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

James Posey was a heck of a player for us. He is really a unique talent in the league and I think the only guy happier than me when we picked him up last summer was WD. But, that said I still think Danny made the right call by not giving him the huge contract.

But like I said, I wasn't even talking about Posey.

[Rondo_is_better]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

What is that schtick? That we miss Posey more than they expected? If that's what they are all saying, I really have to question it. At the halfway mark last year, we were 35-6. At the halfway mark this season, we were 32-9. Did they really value Posey's effect on Celtics so little that they're SURPRISED the team is -3 in the win column from last year with him gone? What kind of effect DID they expect the loss of Posey to have? 1 game? 2 games? NO games?

How anyone could perceive Posey's value as so marginal totally eludes me.

I didn't say anything about Posey. I was referencing the too fast a start but they'll be ok part. When I said schtick was more talking about how thats what just about everyone is saying. But now that you mention it...

The thought that James Posey being on the squad = three more wins up to this point completely eludes me. I don't think James Posey would've changed a thing so far this season. I also don't think we'll truly feel just how much we miss him until the playoffs, when the losses really count, and the steadying hand and defensive versatility will be missed most. I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

James Posey was a heck of a player for us. He is really a unique talent in the league and I think the only guy happier than me when we picked him up last summer was WD. But, that said I still think Danny made the right call by not giving him the huge contract.

But like I said, I wasn't even talking about Posey.

ok, ok sorry. I thought you were.

But now that you wrote about it, why don't you think Posey could've brought us three more wins? During our slide the Celtics bench often gave away leads that the starters had built. I think had Posey been playing with the second unit, those leads would've have stayed intact. I think that's gotta be worth three wins, if not more, right?

EDIT: Oh, also, when I said "anyone" I wasn't saying you. I wasn't trying to attribute an opinion to you or anything, I meant the "experts". Sorry if that came off like I was attacking you.

[indeedproceed]

I like what the scout said about Boston, but its the same schtick every other basketball guy with any creds is saying (shaking fist; HOLLLINGERRRR!)

What is that schtick? That we miss Posey more than they expected? If that's what they are all saying, I really have to question it. At the halfway mark last year, we were 35-6. At the halfway mark this season, we were 32-9. Did they really value Posey's effect on Celtics so little that they're SURPRISED the team is -3 in the win column from last year with him gone? What kind of effect DID they expect the loss of Posey to have? 1 game? 2 games? NO games?

How anyone could perceive Posey's value as so marginal totally eludes me.

I didn't say anything about Posey. I was referencing the too fast a start but they'll be ok part. When I said schtick was more talking about how thats what just about everyone is saying. But now that you mention it...

The thought that James Posey being on the squad = three more wins up to this point completely eludes me. I don't think James Posey would've changed a thing so far this season. I also don't think we'll truly feel just how much we miss him until the playoffs, when the losses really count, and the steadying hand and defensive versatility will be missed most. I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

James Posey was a heck of a player for us. He is really a unique talent in the league and I think the only guy happier than me when we picked him up last summer was WD. But, that said I still think Danny made the right call by not giving him the huge contract.

But like I said, I wasn't even talking about Posey.

ok, ok sorry. I thought you were.

But now that you wrote about it, why don't you think Posey could've brought us three more wins? During our slide the Celtics bench often gave away leads that the starters had built. I think had Posey been playing with the second unit, those leads would've have stayed intact. I think that's gotta be worth three wins, if not more, right?

EDIT: Oh, also, when I said "anyone" I wasn't saying you. I wasn't trying to attribute an opinion to you or anything, I meant the "experts". Sorry if that came off like I was attacking you.

I'm not disputing that the team would be better with Posey on it. I'm just saying that Posey wouldn't have impacted a lot of our loses. I think our "slide" was due more to fatigue than discontinuity. A lot of our wins involved good bench play, a lot of our loses involved stagnant offense and lackluster defense.

[cordobes]

The Celtics missed the injured Tony Allen during the losing streak more than they missed Posey.

 

C's record in the seven games Tony Allen played pre-injury: 4 wins - 3 loses
C's record in the seven games after Tony Allen's injury: 4 wins - 3 loses

I'd love to see some real evidence that James Posey would've turned three loses into wins. Love to.

Can you provide one example of that kind of evidence?

[cordobes]

Does Orlando beat Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series if everyone's centers are healthy? The answer as far as I can tell is still no.

Why? I'd attribute a slight favoritism to Boston or Cleveland, but I can't see a reason why Orlando can't beat them.

Orlando as the best team in the league? When the game slows down in the playoffs, and they still find a way to win, call me. San Antonio, still a contender? I'll believe it when the enter the playoffs with their roster in reasonably good health, i.e. no ankle injury to Manu, no stress fracture for Duncan, etc.

Why on earth would the Magic have a problem with a slower paced games?

I agree with the scouts, I think San Antonio is a contender (I also believe Houston can be one). What you say about injuries is true to any other team.

[Rondo_is_better]

Does Orlando beat Boston or Cleveland in a 7 game series if everyone's centers are healthy? The answer as far as I can tell is still no.

Why? I'd attribute a slight favoritism to Boston or Cleveland, but I can't see a reason why Orlando can't beat them.

Orlando as the best team in the league? When the game slows down in the playoffs, and they still find a way to win, call me. San Antonio, still a contender? I'll believe it when the enter the playoffs with their roster in reasonably good health, i.e. no ankle injury to Manu, no stress fracture for Duncan, etc.

Why on earth would the Magic have a problem with a slower paced games?

I agree with the scouts, I think San Antonio is a contender (I also believe Houston can be one). What you say about injuries is true to any other team.

The Magic would struggle with a slower paced game because their game up tempo. They like to get out and run, and if not necessarily "fast break" and get a layup, they like to get it down the floor quickly, swing it around before the D gets organized, and launch a wing or baseline three. The playoffs don't really allow for that.

What I said about injuries is true for any team, but its especially true for the Spurs (and the Rockets, too, since you brought them up). The Spurs are the oldest team in the league, and they have a documented history of injuries to their key players. Manu's ankle injury is probably what kept them out of the finals last year.

Houston's best two players are always injured. Always. That's why they can't get past the first round. If they actually managed to stay healthy for the majority of the year, then yes, they would be contenders, but they'll sputter out early in the playoffs because T-Mac will be out with a sore knee and Yao will have a sprained ankle or another broken foot.

[Brickowski]

Well Cordobes, here is what one of those same scouts said about Posey: "{New Orleans] is not quite good enough for Posey to be a big help. His braggadocio isn't as loud as it was in Miami and Boston."

He's also a year older.

[Toine43]

I agree with the comments on Hedo.  He has become an all-star caliber player, whether or not he's selected. I wish the Celtics had him.

I think the Posey comment is just the conventional wisdom of guys who don't watch the team that much.  It's the sort of thing that Greg Anthony or one of the other basketball idiots on ESPN would say.  The Celtics missed the injured Tony Allen during the losing streak more than they missed Posey.

I'd be very happy if Tony Allen was traded before he gets healthy enough to play again. The only thing the Celtics have missed without Tony Allen is his floor chemistry-killing, turnover-prone offense. The team defense isn't any worse.

I laughed out loud when I was watching Felger on Comcast talking about TA. In respnse to news that Allen was going to be out for a while longer, Felger said (I'm paraphrasing) "good, the guy is garbage, it's addition by subtraction...I hope I don't get fired for this but the guy stinks." That pretty much sums up the way I feel about Allen.

[cordobes]

The Magic use 92.6 possessions per game. Boston uses 91. Is the difference really that big? The Lakers are more of an up-tempo team, they play 95 possessions per game. True run'n'gun teams, like the Warriors and the Knicks, use +97 poss per game.

Play-offs games are slower, but teams can be successful playing faster. But Orlando is more a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of pace. Even though up-tempo teams can have troubles executing half-court sets, I really don't think that's the case with Orlando. They're pretty comfortable playing a more grind-out game and they have a diversified game.

Manu missed around 15 games in the last 2 seasons. Parker has missed, I don't know... 3 or 4 games per year on average since joining the league? Duncan, I can't even remember the last time he missed a game because of an injury. 4 or 5 years ago? They're old, but they've been healthy; and their big 3 is younger than ours. Mason and Hill insulated some youth in their supporting cast.

YOu're right about Houston, their best players are very injury prone. But if they're healthy at the same time for a 2 months period - and it has happened before - they have a chance to compete for the title.

[cordobes]

Well Cordobes, here is what one of those same scouts said about Posey: "{New Orleans] is not quite good enough for Posey to be a big help. His braggadocio isn't as loud as it was in Miami and Boston."

I agree. But we are good enough.