Who Will the Red Sox Target for 08/09 FA? Who Will They Trade?

[Mean Gerald Green]

Also guy bowden is a nice looking prospect but you got to be serious if you think he will be an ace in the majors. His fastball tops at 88-90 mph with slightly above avg secondary stuff. (tampa would eat this kid for dinner).

He is at best 4th or 5th rotation type pitcher and honestly you don't lose sleep over pitchers of that calibre (because there are abudant amount of those around in the majors and in the playoffs barely get to play)

I am going to file this post away and come find you next year.  Bowden is our best pitching prospect (with the understanding that Buch is no longer a prospect).  He was the Red Sox minor league pitcher of the year (and dont forget he is 22).

sample scouting quotes:

Bowden is a big righty starter with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling, presently projecting as a solid  third starter at the major league level.

He has an arsenal of three pitches that could be big-league caliber: a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball that tops out around 95 mph, a very good 12-6 hard breaking curve, and an excellent circle changeup with plus potential.  His main pitch - the four-seamer - has a late, heavy sinking movement, and he generally keeps it down in the zone.  Bowden can also work in a two-seamer that is a few mph off of his four-seamer, with a bit more movement.  His deceptive changeup sits in the low 80s, about 10 mph off of his fastball, with action moving away from lefties.  His mid-70s curve is pretty sharp and he keeps hitters at bay with it.

Did I mention he is only 22?


EDIT:  Baseball America ranked Bowden's changeup as the best in the Eastern League (no link because it is subscriber only).

At the halfway point in the year, Baseball America ranked him number 17 in terms of prospects.  He got better as the year progressed.  I dont know if top 5 is accurate, but he is certainly in the top group of prosepcts.

This is a fantastic post, Yall...great work.

Triboy, it's a good thing you're not running a major league team...stick to MLB2k9.

Glancing over this thread I've seen posts where you want to trade Lugo and Ellsbury for an all star pitcher (never going to happen, they can't give Lugo away) - one where you want to trade Buchholz, Crisp and Bowden for Brandon Webb (why on earth would the Dbacks do this?) - and one where you want to trade Buchholz, Bay and Bowden for Matt Holliday...(I don't need to say anything).

Bowden is something to cry about losing, you'll see soon enough.

[Tr1boy]

what do u guys think of the wakefield resign?>

i'am indifferent about the signing myself. This will be prob his last season but then again i said that 2 years ago.

It would be ideal if he is slotted 5th

behind the main three and bucholz. With this signing pretty much we can kiss goodbye any major FA pitching signings(not a big deal because a healthy beckett should have propelled us easily into the world series this past year)except for that jap pitcher who wants to come to the majors. If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

Cant wait to see what epstein does to improve our offense which is short one good hitter

[crownsy]

what do u guys think of the wakefield resign?>

i'am indifferent about the signing myself. This will be prob his last season but then again i said that 2 years ago.

It would be ideal if he is slotted 5th

behind the main three and bucholz. With this signing pretty much we can kiss goodbye any major FA pitching signings(not a big deal because a healthy beckett should have propelled us easily into the world series this past year)except for that jap pitcher who wants to come to the majors. If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

Cant wait to see what epstein does to improve our offense which is short one good hitter

he sucks up 200 innings year as a fifth starter and usually breaks .500 on the old W/L . they would have been fools not to pick up his potion, it only costs them 2 mill, which is ridiculously cheap for a 5th starter of wake's caliber.

[yall hate]

what do u guys think of the wakefield resign?>

i'am indifferent about the signing myself. This will be prob his last season but then again i said that 2 years ago.

It would be ideal if he is slotted 5th

behind the main three and bucholz. With this signing pretty much we can kiss goodbye any major FA pitching signings(not a big deal because a healthy beckett should have propelled us easily into the world series this past year)except for that jap pitcher who wants to come to the majors. If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

Cant wait to see what epstein does to improve our offense which is short one good hitter

no brainer.  at 4 million a year, he is one of the best bargains in baseball.  like him or not, that is very very cheap for a starting pitcher putting up his numbers. 

they have him slotted at the 4th starter with one of the kids at 5.

They probably werent going to be active for a vet FA pitcher since they are super expensive...

The japanese guy (asusming you are talking about junichi tazawa) would be in the minor's, not the majors.  he would probably be given a major league deal (like craig hanson was given) but put in the minors.  I dont think anyone expects him to be a major leaguer next year.


Also, Crownsy-  The option is 4 million, not 2.

[crownsy]

what do u guys think of the wakefield resign?>

i'am indifferent about the signing myself. This will be prob his last season but then again i said that 2 years ago.

It would be ideal if he is slotted 5th

behind the main three and bucholz. With this signing pretty much we can kiss goodbye any major FA pitching signings(not a big deal because a healthy beckett should have propelled us easily into the world series this past year)except for that jap pitcher who wants to come to the majors. If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

Cant wait to see what epstein does to improve our offense which is short one good hitter

no brainer.  at 4 million a year, he is one of the best bargains in baseball.  like him or not, that is very very cheap for a starting pitcher putting up his numbers. 

they have him slotted at the 4th starter with one of the kids at 5.

They probably werent going to be active for a vet FA pitcher since they are super expensive...

The japanese guy (asusming you are talking about junichi tazawa) would be in the minor's, not the majors.  he would probably be given a major league deal (like craig hanson was given) but put in the minors.  I dont think anyone expects him to be a major leaguer next year.


Also, Crownsy-  The option is 4 million, not 2.

my bad, still a bargain imo

[yall hate]

my bad, still a bargain imo

yea no doubt.  Carlos Silva for example, got a 48 million 4 year deal.  so 12 mill a year compared to wake's 4 mill. 

here were their stats last year:
Wake
10-11    181.0 Innings pitched  4.13 ERA   1.182 Whip

Silva
4-15  153.3 Innings Pitched  6.46 ERA  1.598 Whip

I'll take wake at even money, never mind 1/3 the price.

[Nerf DPOY]

Also, Crownsy-  The option is 4 million, not 2.

True, but if you read Crownsy's post he clearly refers to Wake's potion, which is in fact 2 million.

I don't think Wake's signing takes them out of the running for a top line starter, as

1 I'm not convinced that they have their sights set on paying Teixeira ~200 mil over 8-10 years.

2 They may be dealing one of their top pitching prospects to Texas.

3 It's only 4 mil. And yeah, it's a no-brainer no matter what happens.

On that note, which ends first; The Simpsons or Wake's career?

[Big_Matt34]

If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

You keep saying this but it just doesnt make much sense. Why on earth would the Red Sox trade Bay AND one of Bowden/Buchholz to get Holliday, he is NOT that much of an upgrade over Bay that you throw in one of your 2 best pitching prospects. Especially considering that Bay has proven he can be a very good player here.

As for Wakefield re-signing, great move. Thinking about this contract with the team option every year, Wakefield has given up SO much money so he could stay in Boston, he is the man.

[Tr1boy]

If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

You keep saying this but it just doesnt make much sense. Why on earth would the Red Sox trade Bay AND one of Bowden/Buchholz to get Holliday, he is NOT that much of an upgrade over Bay that you throw in one of your 2 best pitching prospects. Especially considering that Bay has proven he can be a very good player here.

As for Wakefield re-signing, great move. Thinking about this contract with the team option every year, Wakefield has given up SO much money so he could stay in Boston, he is the man.

dude u really don't know how much better holliday is compared to bay. He is up in all catergories years after year(vs bay) except for this season bay had more rbi's(but holliday avg 130 for the past three years before that). He can actually hit curveballs, offspeed and fastballs.(bay can't hit curveballs if his life depended on it). Also pitchers would fear a guy like holliday(3rd or 4th in batting lineup) more than bay who is a decent 6th or 7th guy. Having him bat 4th for example who make it harder for opposing teams to face ortiz and be exhausting to after face a guy like drew after

Rockies imo can have bay and bucholz or bowden if they offered holliday and we could sign him.

[Big_Matt34]

That much better huh?  Here are Hollidays 162 game averages with Bays below

.319/.386/.938 with 30 homeruns/112 RBI's/58 walks/117 K's

.282/.375./.891 with 31 homeruns/103 RBI's/83 walks/154 K's

Bay played half of his work in a pitchers park while Holliday did it at Coors, Bay hits more homeruns, walks more, and plays better defense while having proved he can play here and play very well.

Holliday hits for a higher average, strikes out less, and is nearly as bad as Manny in LF.Here are Hollidays career home/road splits, now i know Fenway is a pretty good place to hit but its not even close to how much so at Coors

359 home games/.357 AVG/.423 OBP/.1.068 OPS/84 HR's/307 RBI's
339 away games/.280 AVG/.348 OPB/.803 OPS/ 44 HR's/ 176 RBI's

Holliday may be a bit better, but you NEVER give up one of your 2 top prospects for a small upgrade.

[Tr1boy]

dude he is better. your stats even prove it. and those walking figures of holliday is deceptive cuz for the past three years he has walked avg 80. So he prob walks more than bay and strikes out less.

I never said give up both bucholz and bowden but for one of them and bay for holliday , i would do it

Also for the road record i think u got an average total compared to what he has done for the past three years. He is a good road hitter. BTW who is amazing on the road comapred to home games anyways??

[Big_Matt34]

I never said give up both bucholz and bowden but for one of them and bay for holliday , i would do it

Also for the road record i think u got an average total compared to what he has done for the past three years. He is a good road hitter. BTW who is amazing on the road comapred to home games anyways??

Most people are better at home, but there is a HUGE difference between home and road for Holliday. And actually, Bay has a higher career OPS on the road than at home over his career.

And i never said that you said to give up both Bowden and Buchholz. But why would you give up either one of those two for a SLIGHT upgrade And personally, i rather keep Bay who has shown how good he can be here. And what are you talking about with 80 walks a year, Hollidays total walks the last 3 years are 47,63,and 74 which is an average of 61. Bay has walked 80 or more times 3 times in the last 4 years.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=5940

Just sign TExiera, you know the guy you wont have to give up any players to get.

[yall hate]

We really need to put the Holliday talk to rest.  The fact is that everyone recognizes he is a much better hitter at Coors.  Take away his coors numbers and he becomes an average hitter.  thats it.  In Coors, sure he provides what you are looking for, but his numbers are inflated.  I wouldnt trade Bay straight up (knowing the financial situation) nevermind including a cheap, young pitcher who would enable us to go after a position that actually makes sense.

Also, Holliday is going to cost a lot of money.  probably in the 15-20 million range.  if you look at his road splits, he isnt worth it.

Factor in the prospects (and it would take more then one of the pitchers and bay...likely buch, ellsbury, and another prospect) and it just isnt worth it. 

If you are that sold that they need a new hitter, you pay the kings ransom, get texeira (who costs a grand total of 0 prospects) and you either trade or eat the loweel contract. 

[crownsy]

If the redsox bring him in,there is no doubt in my mind bucholz or bowden will be used as trade bait with either bay or lowell to get holliday or get texeira

You keep saying this but it just doesnt make much sense. Why on earth would the Red Sox trade Bay AND one of Bowden/Buchholz to get Holliday, he is NOT that much of an upgrade over Bay that you throw in one of your 2 best pitching prospects. Especially considering that Bay has proven he can be a very good player here.

As for Wakefield re-signing, great move. Thinking about this contract with the team option every year, Wakefield has given up SO much money so he could stay in Boston, he is the man.

dude u really don't know how much better holliday is compared to bay. He is up in all catergories years after year(vs bay) except for this season bay had more rbi's(but holliday avg 130 for the past three years before that). He can actually hit curveballs, offspeed and fastballs.(bay can't hit curveballs if his life depended on it). Also pitchers would fear a guy like holliday(3rd or 4th in batting lineup) more than bay who is a decent 6th or 7th guy. Having him bat 4th for example who make it harder for opposing teams to face ortiz and be exhausting to after face a guy like drew after

Rockies imo can have bay and bucholz or bowden if they offered holliday and we could sign him.

again, as we've said before, look at the road and home splits. matt holiday is a average power hitter at best away from coors.

unless we get to play home games in Colorado, he's not an upgrade.

[Nerf DPOY]

Home/road splits aside, unless I'm mistaken Holliday is an FA at the end of next  season. He is represented by Boras, so there will be nothing the Sox can do short of offereing him a mint that will prevent him from hitting the open market at the end of '09. So what we're talking about here is trading for a year rental, and after that he's fair game. What's that worth in my eyes? IDK, but definitely not Bowden or Buchholz, or even Josh Reddick.

Now, it seems from what I've read here and on SOSH/SoxProspects that most would prefer to spend a load on Teixeira than Sabathia. Is that because of health issues and durability, or team needs? If it's the latter, then I would argue that the team needs an Ace more than a premiere cleanup hitter.

My reasoning:

1 David Ortiz is not dead, he's just resting.

2 There's a pretty good chance that Lars Anderson starting sometime soon will be offering Tex like production at a fraction of the cost.

3 The fragility of starting pitchers like Sabathia are exactly why we need to sign him in the first place. What if one or two of Beckett/Lester/Dice-K/ Buch/Bowden/Wake goes down next year? What if the Yanks got fully healthy seasons from Wang and Joba? The Red Sox headed into the year with all of this starting pitching depth, and in the end they still had to go get Paul Byrd, and only recieved THREE quality starts in the ALCS, one of which was considered miraculous in hindsight( Beckett's game 6 ). Call it semantics, but the Rays didn't out hit us. They out pitched us. The Sox made Upton look like Reggie Jackson. I didn't even know who that Aybar guy was heading into the series.

A starting pitcher of Sabathia's caliber would never be redundant, on any team, ever.