Why the Celtics could conceivably be a better overall team this year

[Redz]

Looking at stats for Tony from last year is tough.  He went long stretches without playing significant, meaningful minutes. 

  This isn't really true. He averaged 18 minutes a game over 75 games. He played 10 or more minutes in about 65 games.

I guess I don't really consider those significant minutes compared to what will be expected of him this season, or what Posey played last season.  Look at his numbers for March. 

Maybe it's more of a sense on my part that Tony was just not a big, positive factor for this team last year, and I don't feel like a lot of his minutes were in decisive parts of games.  I don't have stats to back that part up.

[billysan]

The Tony Allen vs James Posey debate rages onward.

It really is apples and oranges in some respects.

1-James Posey is not the same player as Tony Allen offensively. He is primarily a Long range shooter vs primarily a slasher. Entirely different styles of play that will both result in points on the board. Tony shoots the higher percentage type of shot for the most part.

2-James Posey is 6-8 while Tony Allen is 6-4 with thick soled sneakers on. Posey is a natural SF who can play multiple positions due to his length and strength. Tony is a natural SG who plays multiple positions due to his speed and quickness.

3-James Posey is the more experienced player who knows when to foul and when to back off. His mental participation in the game is superior to Tony Allen's at this time and may be superior to our own big three in some respects. This is the primary benefit that Posey gave us last year and is the reason he commanded so much more money on the FA market IMO.

To expect Tony to replace Posey as a backup SF is like expecting him to play PG and likely will yield the same results. Expecting too much of Tony will just lead to disappointment. I think it is unfair to Tony Allen as well.

[Sweet17]

PER and opponent PER are a terrible way of evaluating defensive quality as well as on/off court points allowed, except for players in very similar situations. Posey took frequently the most difficult defensive assignment, played in crunch time, against the opponent starters, etc. Tony played a lot of garbage time

I hear what you are saying - but I think Bruce Bowen is a quite a bit overrated. And the PER stat shows this. Absolutely this difference in assignment has an effect on a guys numbers nonetheless guys who get tough assignments like Pierce can still do very well with these statistics.

It's not "terrible" it's just not a PERFECT indicator. Much like any other statistic - such as shooting percentage or assist ratio..and so on. Your Bruce Bowen example hardly invalidates it. Bruce Bowen is a craptastic offensive player - that's partly why his PER differential is so bad. Finley is still a decent scorer.

I mean HOLY CRAP Bowen's PER is 7.9 at SG. That's god awful - and that's the postion he plays most.

Pete

[wdleehi]

Yeah, it is a shame they don't have a compareson between a players opponent per that they have now vs. what that opponent average per is for the season.  (But that would be to hard to track because they would have to watch every game timing how long players guard certain players)


Anyways, I agree that it is unfair to expect TA to replace and be better then Posey.  That is a huge jump for TA (or any player). 



I would be happy if the Celtics could get a consistent 15 minutes out of him every game.  Where he plays he defense he is capable of.  Where he doesn't try to do to much on offense.  (meaning the ball should not be in his hand for long stretches or as a PG)  And that he is not just plugged into Posey's end of game spot. 


I really want the Celtics to improve their playoff bench.  I am not worried about this bench in the regular season. 


And I do think they will.

[BballTim]

PER and opponent PER are a terrible way of evaluating defensive quality as well as on/off court points allowed, except for players in very similar situations. Posey took frequently the most difficult defensive assignment, played in crunch time, against the opponent starters, etc. Tony played a lot of garbage time.


A classic example:

Bruce Bowen
Opp. PER  16.3
net PER  -8.2
On court/Off court -1.8

Michael Finley
Opp. PER  14.3
net PER  -1.1
On court/Off court 0

Who is the better defender?

  Bowen's Opponent's PER in 05-06 it was 12.1. In 06-07 it was 13.7. Last year it was 16.3. His defense is clearly slipping. Maybe the numbers aren't as off as you think. Clearly whether you guard starters or reserves must be taken into account, as well as whether you get the harder or easier assignment in terms of swing men. But I'd say that the Bowen number is a lot more accurate than you think.

[BCelts]

Just want to echo what has already been said here by others.

- there is no way that 2 rookies, Tony Allen, and Darius Miles, who has yet to even earn a guaranteed contract, are going to replicate the entire impact that James Posey had on this team. Best case scenario is let's hope Tony Allen can just give us this year what he gave the team last year and that the other three actually produce something, anything. I think the rooks will be spending most of their time playing NBDL ball or riding pine. 15 players on the roster, only 12 can dress. That spells N.B.D.L. to me.

- I completely disagree about the need for more transition offense and players that play above the rim. Over the last 10 years there have been exactly two players on the last ten championship teams that played their game above the rim and were contributors, Kobe and Dwayne Wade. That's it. And honestly, neither the Lakers nor the Heat utilized Kobe or DWade exclusively in that type of play. Outside shooting was as large a part of both of their games as their above the rim games.

NBA champions are no longer made in the likeness of the Jordan Bulls or the Magic Lakers with lots of fastbreak basketball and above the rim antics. Most NBA champions are veteran teams that have offenses and defenses that execute well in the half court sets. That is what the Celtics are. And....they should have gotten players that would assist in that regard this offseason instead of trying to bring in guys that will quicken the pace that have little to no experience.

- So in that regard I don't think the Celtics will be better than last year because the additions to the team are not the type of additions that enhance championship chances. Young and inexperienced is not what was needed. Now, because of the reasons listed above by TPD... another year of cohesiveness, development of Rondo, the better incorporation of Ray Allen into the offense...the Celtics will improve in some areas and take a step back in others. My belief is they will not be as good as last year but will be more than good enough to be back in the Finals and probably be repeating as World Champions again come June 2009.

The above answer is exactly correct. TP.

[nickagneta]

The Tony Allen vs James Posey debate rages onward.

It really is apples and oranges in some respects.

1-James Posey is not the same player as Tony Allen offensively. He is primarily a Long range shooter vs primarily a slasher. Entirely different styles of play that will both result in points on the board. Tony shoots the higher percentage type of shot for the most part.

2-James Posey is 6-8 while Tony Allen is 6-4 with thick soled sneakers on. Posey is a natural SF who can play multiple positions due to his length and strength. Tony is a natural SG who plays multiple positions due to his speed and quickness.

3-James Posey is the more experienced player who knows when to foul and when to back off. His mental participation in the game is superior to Tony Allen's at this time and may be superior to our own big three in some respects. This is the primary benefit that Posey gave us last year and is the reason he commanded so much more money on the FA market IMO.

To expect Tony to replace Posey as a backup SF is like expecting him to play PG and likely will yield the same results. Expecting too much of Tony will just lead to disappointment. I think it is unfair to Tony Allen as well.

TP4U, very well said all around and some great points.

I think you're 100% right about Tony Allen and his positioning. He's a SG and that's where he will be most effective and hence, really won't be making up for any loss of Posey. I really hope that Tony can give us what he gave us last year but only during more meaningful minutes and with more consistency. That is how he will help this club the most.

It's when Tony tries to do too much or things beyond his limitations that he gets in trouble. I hope he plays within himself and just becomes more of a constant and so much less of a variable.

[Birdbrain]

Of course Tony we'll add a few things that Posey couldn't do which could balance out the loss.   Things like actually being able dribble and drive. Which I assume most are thinking about when they say Allen can replace Posey.  I guess I could be reading this all wrong but, I think it's pretty clear that Allen and Posey are not similiar in playing styles or sizes or demeanor or...   We are talking about 7 ppg and 4 rbs per game.  Replacing Posey's production will be easy now can someone step up and make that critical 3 in game 4 of the finals?  I think C's have several options.  Let's not forget how bad Big Game James played during the Detroit series when we remember how good he played during the Finals.  I don't remember too many big shots in that Detroit series.

Big game James Posey should retire right now and risk coming down to Earth with more playing time.

I'm on record as saying this team will be better than the 2007/2008 Celtics and Big Game James will be but and afterthought.  Of course if the C's do stumble in the Finals I'm sure the reason will be because the C's didn't resign James Posey.  So those holding that card keep it stored away for the right time.

[Sweet17]

Let's not forget how bad Big Game James played during the Detroit series when we remember how good he played during the Finals.  I don't remember too many big shots in that Detroit series.

Big game James Posey should retire right now and risk coming down to Earth with more playing time

Posey with his three point shooting was of course amazingly hit or miss. He comes in - misses a few threes and he would basically give the team nothing for that night. It happened several times in the regular season.

Posey was great clutch player for us - and will always be remember. But the myth of his fantastic play is out of control. He isn't Manny Ramirez - he is Dave Roberts.

Pete

[BCelts]

The Tony Allen vs James Posey debate rages onward.

It really is apples and oranges in some respects.

1-James Posey is not the same player as Tony Allen offensively. He is primarily a Long range shooter vs primarily a slasher. Entirely different styles of play that will both result in points on the board. Tony shoots the higher percentage type of shot for the most part.

2-James Posey is 6-8 while Tony Allen is 6-4 with thick soled sneakers on. Posey is a natural SF who can play multiple positions due to his length and strength. Tony is a natural SG who plays multiple positions due to his speed and quickness.

3-James Posey is the more experienced player who knows when to foul and when to back off. His mental participation in the game is superior to Tony Allen's at this time and may be superior to our own big three in some respects. This is the primary benefit that Posey gave us last year and is the reason he commanded so much more money on the FA market IMO.

To expect Tony to replace Posey as a backup SF is like expecting him to play PG and likely will yield the same results. Expecting too much of Tony will just lead to disappointment. I think it is unfair to Tony Allen as well.

TP4U, very well said all around and some great points.

I think you're 100% right about Tony Allen and his positioning. He's a SG and that's where he will be most effective and hence, really won't be making up for any loss of Posey. I really hope that Tony can give us what he gave us last year but only during more meaningful minutes and with more consistency. That is how he will help this club the most.

It's when Tony tries to do too much or things beyond his limitations that he gets in trouble. I hope he plays within himself and just becomes more of a constant and so much less of a variable.

I do not disagree strongly with anything stated in the Tony Allen vs. James Posey debate.  But I think there are a few vital points missing here:

1.  The original question was whether the Celtics are better this year.
2.  Last year's team had both players.
3.  Even more importantly, last year's team played Posey far more in the playoffs than TA.
4.  Ergo, Posey must have been better FOR THIS TEAM than TA last year.
5.  Summing up the above, having TA take Posey's minutes next year is a weaker team.

First, you can logically disagree with this if you think TA will be much improved next year because his knee will continue to heal.  I do not take this position because it is too unproven, but it is logical.  Otherwise, I think that the Celtics last year, for this team, valued Tony Allen more therefore, giving TA Posey's old minutes cannot make for a better team.

[BballTim]

I do not disagree strongly with anything stated in the Tony Allen vs. James Posey debate.  But I think there are a few vital points missing here:

1.  The original question was whether the Celtics are better this year.
2.  Last year's team had both players.
3.  Even more importantly, last year's team played Posey far more in the playoffs than TA.
4.  Ergo, Posey must have been better FOR THIS TEAM than TA last year.
5.  Summing up the above, having TA take Posey's minutes next year is a weaker team.

First, you can logically disagree with this if you think TA will be much improved next year because his knee will continue to heal.  I do not take this position because it is too unproven, but it is logical.  Otherwise, I think that the Celtics last year, for this team, valued Tony Allen more therefore, giving TA Posey's old minutes cannot make for a better team.

  If the question was whether playing Posey over Allen last year made us better, the answer is probably yes. If the question is whether the 08-09 team with Posey would be better than the 80-09 team with Allen, the answer could still be yes. But the question is whether the 08-09 team (with more TA) is better than the 07-08 team with Posey. This could be true even if you think going from Posey to TA is a downgrade.

[Mr October]

- I completely disagree about the need for more transition offense and players that play above the rim. Over the last 10 years there have been exactly two players on the last ten championship teams that played their game above the rim and were contributors, Kobe and Dwayne Wade. That's it. And honestly, neither the Lakers nor the Heat utilized Kobe or DWade exclusively in that type of play. Outside shooting was as large a part of both of their games as their above the rim games.

NBA champions are no longer made in the likeness of the Jordan Bulls or the Magic Lakers with lots of fastbreak basketball and above the rim antics. Most NBA champions are veteran teams that have offenses and defenses that execute well in the half court sets. That is what the Celtics are. And....they should have gotten players that would assist in that regard this offseason instead of trying to bring in guys that will quicken the pace that have little to no experience.

The above answer is exactly correct. TP.

I need to chime in on the 'above the rim' observation. Length is critical. Other players on championship teams in the last 10 years with great length for their position and above the rim ability:

Shaq, Duncan, Rasheed, Prince, Ben Wallace, Horry, David Robinson

On a side note, in agreement: The C's transition offense is there and good. Defense, team chemistry and star power are much more important traits on a championship team.

Length and above the rim play can't be ignored though. KG was awesome in this regard. It couldn't hurt the C's to have one more big guy who can defend above the rim. I really hope POB or Miles pan out.

[Sweet17]

Length and above the rim play can't be ignored though. KG was awesome in this regard. It couldn't hurt the C's to have one more big guy who can defend above the rim. I really hope POB or Miles pan out.

Agreed. I think that flashy dunks aren't really needed - but that shouldn't be confused the length and athleticism. Those features are the keys for good defense in the NBA.

Honestly NBA players are from my perspective amazingly - just not that tall. What they are is long armed for the most part. This combined with better then average jumping ability makes for excellent players.

Hence guys like POB and Miles who perhaps aren't that fundamentally sound in all aspects of the game - can really help an NBA team...

Pete