Why the Celtics could conceivably be a better overall team this year

[KJ33]

I guess it really depends on how we define better.  Some have mentioned some areas, like regular season record, others more subjective criteria, but even those who think they won't be "better" have said they will still win the Championship.  If that is the criteria, then the Celtics cannot be better by definition, only as good.  Does it really matter to split hairs about the impact of Posey's departure, and if those vying to replace that production and role will be able to if the ultimate conclusion is that they will win it all again?  Everything else is pure speculation, I know the self-appointed experts here like to presume what absolutely will and will not happen, but I think any measured review of last year did not yield an overwhelmingly positive response that Pose and the bench were 100% solid, no question marks, the clear formula to win it all, at the beginning of the year.  We know now they did win, but it is something else to say it was widely assumed the mix off the bench last year was just right ahead of time.  

I understand the OPs point in terms of an injection of youth that is vital to an "older" team that the Celtics are called all the time now.  The experience factor has been somewhat lessened as a need off the bench specifically because of what happened last year, all the returnees have vital experience now, neutralizing the lack of that by some key bench pieces.  It is a long regular season, as Doug Collins often says, a deep bench is the most important in terms of getting the starters rested for the playoffs.  Pose and House stepped up big in some key spots in the playoffs for sure, but there were long stretches during the first 82, people only remember the last 6-26 it seems, where the 2nd unit was downright anemic in getting anything going on offense.  A bunch of guys standing around, spotting up, but with no creators to distribute to them, it forced Doc to keep at least one of the Big 3, often Ray or PP, out there all the time to counteract that, playing them more than he would have liked.  This year's bench has more potential in that area, not as proven, no, not as clutch, no, but as stated, we can get that from a host of places now and that is not as critical in terms of bench play until much later in the year, plenty of time for that to be sorted out.  In terms of being a viable, flexible unit that can defend and score, that can provide more rest this year than last to the Big 3 so that they are fresh for the playoffs, the bench is more capable this year in my opinion.

[johnnymost]

I think what really makes the Celtics is the "system" which gets built around these players during pre-season. TT's assessment of each player's strengths and weaknesses will determine whether this team is better or worse. I think that success will be determined by Ray's teaching that Irish guy to maximize his length, efficient rotations by Doc, and team defense by Tom. We learned last year that team play can beat individual play - it's just a matter of meshing those parts.

[cordobes]

TA alone could outproduce [Posey] him - quite easily. He already has production wise in the NBA.

Thank God New Orleans offered that 4 year contract to Posey. Otherwise, he may have signed that 3yr/full-MLE contract Ainge offered him and Tony Allen would walk for nothing. It would have been a mistake of epic proportions.

I wouldn't even get into the potential impact of Darius Miles - a guy who has already match or surpassed Posey in his prime. A guy who just oozes talent..

Are you serious? You may want to consider that the most valuable contributions of Posey on the offensive end do not translate to stats. He's a threat playing off the ball, by providing space, picking screens, etc.

(...)
- I completely disagree about the need for more transition offense and players that play above the rim. Over the last 10 years there have been exactly two players on the last ten championship teams that played their game above the rim and were contributors, Kobe and Dwayne Wade. That's it. And honestly, neither the Lakers nor the Heat utilized Kobe or DWade exclusively in that type of play. Outside shooting was as large a part of both of their games as their above the rim games.

NBA champions are no longer made in the likeness of the Jordan Bulls or the Magic Lakers with lots of fastbreak basketball and above the rim antics. Most NBA champions are veteran teams that have offenses and defenses that execute well in the half court sets. That is what the Celtics are. And....they should have gotten players that would assist in that regard this offseason instead of trying to bring in guys that will quicken the pace that have little to no experience.

Agreed. About the first point quoted, blame Stern. The NBA promotion machine created a generation of fans who prefer to watch dunks than good basketball. And, as a consequence, a generation of players who spend more time practicing dunks than learning to cut off screens properly. I have always been of the opinion that the reason why Tim Duncan was never heavily marketed by the NBA was because he doesn't dunk enough.

To add some substance, I share you opinion on the pace. And I'm pretty sure that the Celtics, one of the slowest teams of the league last season, won't change their philosophy because they added two rookies to the roster. They are the ones who will have to adapt (I don't think it's going to be hard, especially for Giddens, who, while in New Mexico, played on a offensive system that the C's use a lot).

The rookies were picked because they have talent (or, at least, the organization thinks they have talent), not to make the team faster and more athletic when facing the Atlantas of the world. Unless you believe they'll play major minutes during the playoffs as rookies. They won't. That's purely draft night talk.

[greg_kite]

If the big three and Perk can all stay the same and Rondo improves then it's realistic that the team can get better.  Only 5 guys at a time can play so if the best 5 are better then why couldn't they improve.  Rondo could really take his game to another level though.

House is a solid combo guard.  If Patty O'B can be a halfway decent shot blocker and TA looks like the TA before the last knee injury then the bench should be fine.  Powe and BBD are young enough that they can still improve significantly.  The only weak spot in my mind is the backup SF, which is behind Pierce, the youngest of the big three and the one who could probably handle more minutes.  It could even be good for him.

And if House or TA goes down, having Cassell or even Pruitt wouldn't be the end of the world.  I like what I've seen from Pruitt and would like to see more.

[zerophase]

keep in mind, the best team doesn't always win the championship. based on matchups in the playoffs a better then can be eliminated by a lesser team. aka dallas couple years ago.

[MVP]

I don't buy it. 

Last years team proved to be the best in the NBA with experience players off the bench. 



This years team is looking to live off potential off the bench this year. 

But on the other hand, last year Celtics had potential/inexperience in the starting line-up with Rondo and Perk. Now those two players are somewhat tested and proven with a good number of playoff games under their belt and a championship. Even some guys off the bench are more experienced...Powe played 269 minutes in the playoffs last year and Big Baby played 138 minutes. Those two guys should be more ready and reliable come playoff time this year. Lastly, last year we had only 2 guys on the roster with finals experience, right now we have 2/3 of the team with finals experience. So while we lost some experienced guys, the team as a whole will be more experienced heading into the playoffs this year rather then last year.

67 minutes. 


That's how much playoff experience there is off the bench at SG/SF from last year over 26 games.


TA had another 90 minutes his rookie season over 7 games.  But apparently that wasn't enough to earn more this time around. 

28 minutes.

That's how much playoff experience there was last year from our starting pg, center and backup pf. What's more worrisome, having inexperienced starters at the pg and center spots with House/Brown as backups or having inexperienced wings backing up Pierce/Allen?

I'm not really worried with expierence from our wing position with Pierce and Allen playing in front of them. The only thing that I'm concerned about is that none of them are reliable 3 point shooters.

[orrzor]

My opinion is that as long as we have someone who can shutdown or hinder the other team's best player, we will be fine. We need to make up for lost defense that Posey provided at positions 2-4. I'm not convinced by Miles or the rookies. I am holding up hope TA can defend the 2 position when needed and Pierce can handle the 3's. I think we still need another shutdown defender at those positions, then I'd be a bit less worried. Also a real backup to Perkins.

[greg683x]

My opinion is that as long as we have someone who can shutdown or hinder the other team's best player, we will be fine. We need to make up for lost defense that Posey provided at positions 2-4. I'm not convinced by Miles or the rookies. I am holding up hope TA can defend the 2 position when needed and Pierce can handle the 3's. I think we still need another shutdown defender at those positions, then I'd be a bit less worried. Also a real backup to Perkins.


finally FINALLY someone mentioned defense!  I think besides this person, only one other guy in this whole thread mentioned defense in regards to replacing Posey.  This is whats going to be missed the most by losing him in my opinion.  The leadership/experience with him was more a factor with him last year, but this team won a title last year and the key players know how its done now, Poseys championship experience becomes a little less valuable.

What worries me with Posey leaving is his presence on the defensive end of the court.  The players we have replacing Posey lack something Posey had that you cant teach.  Height and Versatility.  Tony Allen cant guard a PF and would have a hard time with a big SF.  Frankly, even though we play good TEAM defense, playing Lebron next year becomes more frustrating than it already is.  Yes Pierce can guard Lebron, but we also dont want Paul getting in foul trouble.  Last year we had Posey coming off the bench, which was refreshing on a guy like Lebron.  Next year, even though I think we can do it, when we have to take Paul off Lebron, hes going to be an even tougher cover than before.  I think our team defense can hold the fort down.

But this is going to become the general problem here.  Playing a balanced team is going to start to really hurt us.  Having a GREAT defender that can handle whatever you throw at him, at THREE different positions, really covers you when playing balanced teams.  Everyone doesnt have to stray as far from their man to help out, which leads to more effective defense.

I could go on about this for hours.  Losing the offense doesnt matter when it comes to Posey, theres so many talented players on this team, 7 points spread around is NOTHING.  The problems that losing a presence like Posey will cause will be seen on defense in my opinion.

...it would actually be nice to have the Walter McCarty that we had like 4 years ago back to play.  I think he'd work out great.

[TitleMaster]

matchups in the playoffs a better then can be eliminated by a lesser team. aka dallas couple years ago

Dallas is a uniquely mediocre team. They're led by a big man [ ala Raef LaFrentz's east German cousin ] who takes 3s, in place of defense, post plays, and clutch shooting. That's a recipe for a go nowhere playoff run.

The Celts are led by a combo player, Paul Pierce. And the Truth is a significantly greater contributor than Dirk Nowitzski in all situations where being 7 feet isn't the only criteria for getting one's shot off. Really, this man is the reason why we're where we are. And next year will be Pierce's greatest season [ think Oscar Robertson-like ]. And likewise, the components which surround him (Rondo, KG, Perkules, Ray Ray, House, TA, BBD/Powe, Sam, and the rookies) will also improve to make this '09 squad something really special. Yes, they won't expend all their energy to go 72-10 for some NBA league grammy award but instead, a normal 60-62 win season, as many championship teams before them. And this time, the playoffs won't go 7/7/6/6, more like 5/5/6/5 with everyone rested and on the same page.

[BballTim]

Best case scenario is let's hope Tony Allen can just give us this year what he gave the team last year and that the other three actually produce something, anything.

  How is this the best case scenario? Are you guaranteeing that Allen, even though he should be healthier, will be unable to do better than matching his productivity from last year? And I think it's a little early in the season to completely write off Giddens, Walker and Miles.

[BballTim]

Walker, Giddens, and a healthier and more confident Tony Allen will easily be able to replicate the production and impact Posey brought to the Celtics last year. You can even add Darius Miles to the equation.

I'm not buying it.  They *might* replicate the impact, but "will easily be able to"?  No.  I'm sure Posey's production can be filled (although probably not his efficiency), but I don't think the impact of his leadership, clutch play, toughness, and leadership is going to be easily replaced.

  I think that the impact of Posey's clutch play, toughness, and leadership would be less this year because he's no longer the only player on the roster who's won a title.

  This discussion about whether we'll be better than last year focuses mainly on the bench. The starters have played together for a year and they have the confidence and mental toughness that comes from winning the title. Rondo could be significantly better than he was last year. Any of these three things could be a bigger impact than Posey would make this year.

   Even in terms of the bench, there seems to be the sentiment that we need a clone of Posey in order to play. A player who gives us an offensive spark can't have as much of an effect on the bench as a good defender. A slasher can't be as valuable as a three point shooter. And, in my opinion, the fact that Tony Allen can't guard a pf is at least somewhat mitigated by the presence of Powe, Davis, and possibly even Scals or Miles on the roster.

[celticmaestro]

Walker, Giddens, and a healthier and more confident Tony Allen will easily be able to replicate the production and impact Posey brought to the Celtics last year. You can even add Darius Miles to the equation.

I'm not buying it.  They *might* replicate the impact, but "will easily be able to"?  No.  I'm sure Posey's production can be filled (although probably not his efficiency), but I don't think the impact of his leadership, clutch play, toughness, and leadership is going to be easily replaced.

In terms of the team, I don't think they'll win 66 games again, but I do think they'll be more cohesive going into the playoffs.  In terms of their ultimate success, a lot is going to depend on how the young guys play under pressure, and if they can't cut it, what is done about it.  This team could use some more vets akin to P.J. and Posey.  Either way, they'll be fine, but the number of projects and rookies on the roster concerns me a bit.

Completely agree here, my exact thoughts. Nothing left to add, TP for Roy.

[Frontierboy]

I like how we have a lot more athleticism on the team....... with a high flying group of J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker, Darius Miles, and a healthy T.A....... it'll add that much more excitement to the team that is already pretty exciting....

Also, a year under everyone's belt as champions will do wonders for everyone..... we don't need anyone (like Posey or Cassell) to show us how to be champions.  Improved chemistry between the Big 3 will help a lot with a year under their belts. 

All things point to a 70 win season!!!!

[footey]

Our major weakness last year was against young athleticism, which is why we struggled vs. ATL in the play-offs. One would think we are clearly going to be more athletic this season. So in that sense, I see an improvement.  I think the hardest thing to replace will be Posey's clutch 3 point shooting. The guy was just incredible when he counted.  Don't think we have been able to address that with our athleticism.

[JBcat]

Our major weakness last year was against young athleticism, which is why we struggled vs. ATL in the play-offs. One would think we are clearly going to be more athletic this season. So in that sense, I see an improvement.  I think the hardest thing to replace will be Posey's clutch 3 point shooting. The guy was just incredible when he counted.  Don't think we have been able to address that with our athleticism.

It wasn't just Atlanta in the playoffs that we struggled against young athletic teams.   We also had trouble in the regular season with  Charlotte (nearly 2 losses.  Took a buzzer beater to beat them one game), Orlando (2 losses), Washington (3 losses), and even Philly a little bit as well so Danny was right to address the issue. 

From a pure talent standpoint I think we have more but it's too early to say if that will correlate to a "better" team.