Queta signs 4 year contract extension

[Neurotic Guy]

Looks great to me. Q just seems to me to be on a solidly upward trajectory. I think he?ll take another step this year.  Might take a few fewer minutes but I believe his impact will be higher.  Love the energy, work ethic, size, hands.  He has shown an ability to pass and shoot and that will improve in time.

[satch]

Hard working and athletic. I see upside...I think he will eventually become a decent shooter.

[jambr380]

Claxton is probably his best comp. Queta gives you a lot of things you really want in your non-star center. Very good defense, toughness, screen setting, rim running, durability, and he's honestly not hopeless on offense.

I feel like Queta's ability to stay healthy is a really underrated quality since big men so often get injured. Hopefully that will continue since we really only have one year of data where Queta played high minutes.

While I don't think he's a 30M/yr guy, I think he easily could have eclipsed $20M/yr with another strong showing. He's just the kind of center you want to have on your team when your best players are wings and guards.

[Who]

Queta is already worth $20-25mil a season. With a good season, he would have been worth $25-30mil. At that level, he just signed a contract for 50% of his worth.

Is there another player in the NBA that signed a contract for above 20m a year for 10 points and 8 rebounds a game? I can't think of one. His contract is in line with other guys like Wendell Carter.

To carry on from my previous post ...

This is part of the issue with this type of comparison. There are only around 10 players that are comparable to Queta. A couple of them are on rookie deals and couple of them haven't gotten paid yet. That left 6 other players to compare him to.

There games are not exact matches. Queta is on the lower end on those comparisons.

Then you add in the difference in overall cap figures based on when a guy got paid and you have an even smaller group to make direct comparisons to. It is more about ranges. Ranges of talent / production. Ranges of pay. There is variability within those ranges.

That is why I used to 2 ranges above. The $20-25mil for Queta being in the lower end of that range. And the $25-30mil if Queta's playing time grows from 25mpg to 28-30mpg and he goes from a 10/8 guy to a 12/10 guy. That is where I see that potential rise coming from. But for now a $20-25mil guy.

------------

Even looking at Wendell Carter Jr. He signed for $18-21mil a year. He isn't as good as Queta. WCJ has more variety to his offense but WCJ can't defend like Queta can. Still, he is earning more money than Queta.

Queta signed for 4 years $56mil. That is less than the MLE. The MLE is $65mil 4 years. The MLE typically goes to average rotation players. Guys who are borderline starters / high end bench players. Guys who rank around 25th-35th at their positions.

Queta is a middle of the pack starting quality center. Somewhere in that 10-20 range. I'd have him near or at the bottom of that range. Still, the 20th best center in the league shouldn't be signing for less than the MLE. That is a terrible contract for a player of his stature to sign.

Queta is not even earning as much as Mitchell Robinson. M Robinson got 4 yrs $60mil. M Robinson can barely play 20mpg without falling down exhausted. And plays only 50% of available games over the last 4 years. There is no way Queta should be signing a contract that pays him less than M Robinson. Queta is a much more valuable player. Queta's health alone makes him much more valuable.

[Who]

High end - Hartenstein, Z Edey, Zubac, Duren, W Kessler
Lower end - J Allen, D Lively, N Claxton, Diabate, Queta

I am not including Mark Williams in this group because he is too injury prone. Too undependable. Zach Edey may join him on this list but I'll leave him in for now.

So those are the guys who I would compare to Queta.

Of those 10 players, 2 are still on rookie deals. Z Edey and D Lively. So their contracts are not useful for comparison.

Queta and Diabate were journeymen / 2nd round picks who have come good. Queta just got paid. Diabate hasn't yet. That is 4 of 10 players.

Leaving 6 others to look at.

* Duren = looking for max money, likely to get $35-40mil

* Zubac = signed a cheaper deal in 2024 (12ppg 9rpg) before his breakout year in 2025 (16ppg 12rpg, All-Defense). He is signed for $19-22mil a year for 4 years. He would get more money today if he was back on the market.

* J Allen = $20mil this year, $28-32mil next 3 years

* Hartenstein = gave up money to stay on a title winning team. Earning $25mil per year. I expect he would have gotten around $30mil if he left OKC.

* W Kessler = 4yrs $130mil. So $32.5mil per year.

* Nic Claxton = signed a declining contract that started at $27mil a year going down to $21mil a year at the end of his deal. He signed the deal after averaging 12ppg 10rpg in 30mpg.

Queta isn't on the level of most of those guys.

Regular season, he's a solid defender, good rebounder, and a limited scorer that is very effective at the rim.

In the playoffs he was a poor defender and couldn't stay on the floor.

He should continue to grow and outperform his contract, but he's not in the tier you're putting him in.  He's basically Sam Dalembert, or a healthier but solidly inferior Robert Williams.

Sam Dalembert is a good comparison. I on board with that. I would have Dalembert in that same middle of the pack starting center during his prime. I probably would have had Dalembert a little higher (in 10-20 range of starting centers, but high to middle of that range) than Queta (10-20 range but low part of range) but still a useful comp.

Sam Dalembert was earning around $10mil during his prime. He signed a 6yr $64mil deal. That was in 2005-06 when the NBA's cap was $50mil ($49.5mil). It is $165mil today. That Dalembert contract is over $30mil a year in today's money. $33mil a year.

[Who]

He's basically Sam Dalembert, or a healthier but solidly inferior Robert Williams.

Yeah, Timelord is a tough one for comparisons because of the injuries. He would be earning major bucks if he was healthy (both games played & longer minutes). I'd have him in that upper end of the $25-30mil range. Maybe even gets into that $30-35mil range.

Similar to Mark Williams. He is another guy who would be earning huge money if he could stay healthy and on the floor. $25-30mil. Maybe more. 15ppg 10rpg in 26mpg two years ago. Imagine if he got to 30-35mpg. He might get Jalen Duren money.

Even M Robinson, he would have gotten far more than the MLE if he could stay healthy and play more than 20mpg. M Robinson would probably be in that $20-25mil range that I think Queta should be in if M Robinson had good health.

[Who]

Even M Robinson, he would have gotten far more than the MLE if he could stay healthy and play more than 20mpg. M Robinson would probably be in that $20-25mil range that I think Queta should be in if M Robinson had good health.

Actually, M Robinson works better as a comparison if you take his previous contract rather than his current deal.

He signed a 4yr $60mil deal in 2022. The cap was $123.7mil for 2022-23 season. M Robinson signed a declining deal that started high and went low. I am just going to use the average number over the course of the deal of $15mil to make a comparison easier. That is $20mil in today's money ($165mil cap).

M Robinson was healthier in his first 4 years in the league. He had one injury hit season with 31 games played but the other 3 years he played 61, 66, 72 games. He played 27.5mpg and 25.7mpg his final two years. So highly comparable to Queta. 25.7mpg MR's last season before his new deal vs 25.3mpg for Queta last year. Almost identical.

M Robinson averaged 8.5ppg 8.6rpg 1.8bpg 0.8spg 0.5apg in those 25.7mpg on 76% FG 72% TS. Queta averaged 10.2ppg 8.4rpg 1.3bpg 0.8spg 1.7apg in 25.3mpg on 65% FG 67% TS.

Interesting to see Queta's advantage in points scored and particularly in assists. Turnovers were similar at 0.8 for MR to 1.0 for Queta. M Robinson with the advantage in blocks.

Anyway, highly comparable. And M Robinson checks in at that low end of the $20-25mil range at $20mil.

[snively]

I think Queta is being penalized for only having a single year of major exposure under his belt and the last bit being negative.
 

[radiohead]

I?d love to see Queta catch those lobs from JT. I think he?ll have a breakout year.

[ozgod]

Neemias Queta has agreed to a fully guaranteed four-year, $56 million contract extension with the Boston Celtics, running through the 2030-31 season

This is the start of the big (non-discretionary) spend that will hit the Cs payroll from next season. The others they have to decide on that will hit next season will be Garza, Walsh, and Banton, then the season after that will be PP and Baylor.

(click to enlarge)


The table looks like there's an error with Q's first season on the new contract, it should be $13.5m not $2.3m because he's no longer a UFA that season. So my numbers below reflect that.

Next season they wil be at $214m with Tatum, PG13, White, Hauser, Robinson, Harper Jr, PP, Gonzalez, Scheierman, Queta and Williams (11 players), with decisions to be made on Gaza, Walsh, Banton and Conley, who collectively will make $10.7m this season. The thresholds next season are:

Salary Cap: $173.3m
Tax line: $211m (est.)
First Apron: $219.5m
Second Apron: $233.1m

Do they have the following space before hitting each threshold, to sign 4 spots that this season cost us $10.7m in mins and rookie contracts):

Tax Line: Already over by $3m with 11 players
First Apron: $6.9m
Second Apron $19.1m

Technically we could ask PG0 to decline his $56m player option and extend him for a longer period for lower annual money (maybe 3y/25m or something that gives us more wiggle room under the aprons).

Then the year after the extensions for PP and Baylor would kick in (assuming we didn't let them walk or trade them beforehand).

So this is really the only year that they can realistically reset the luxury tax rate for these upcoming, high-spend seasons, when they will be over it. And when you're going over it anyway is probably the time you want to then spend big, and ideally have a 300% tax rate instead of a 575% one.

Of course, Chisolm could look at it as a fan and not the head of a private equity group and say to hell with the tax, who cares if we're not a contender this season, spend, spend, spend baby. But if I were a betting man I would probably bet against that