Jaylen Traded to PHI for PG, 2 First Round Picks & 2 Second Round Picks

[Neurotic Guy]

There would have been nothing preventing BOS from paying Brown less.  I doubt Brown would have accepted less.

He wouldn't have accepted it at this point, but I don't see what the hurry to deal him was.

The thing about the 2nd round picks is the likelihood of being early.  No one prefers seconds to firsts but two 31-35 picks isn?t far off from one 22-28 pick.    I?d take the 1 first, but the two seconds are decent value comparatively.  Draft is usually a crapshoot after 20. 

[Roy H.]

Sam Vecenie argues BOS got more for Jaylen than LAC got for Kawhi because the picks BOS got from PHI are more valuable than the picks LAC got from TOR.

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The picks

PHI picks = likely lotto pick 2028 + could be anything 2031 unprotected pick + two 2nd rounds which are likely early 2nd rounders.

TOR picks = unprotected 2031 & 2033 picks + pick swap in 2027 + two 2nd rounders in 2030 & 2033.

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I don't care much about 2nd rounders. They are not worthless but they are close to worthless. So I am just looking at the first round picks.

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So the argument was that Toronto should still be good in those years. I don't know about that argument. It is so far off in the future you have no idea what the team will look like. Teams generally have 3-4 different groups within a 10 year period. Those picks are 5 and 7 years forward from now.

We have no idea what those picks will be. I view them as could-be-anything picks the same way I view Philly's 2031 pick.

The 2027 pick swap doesn't seem to have any benefit. LAC should be much worse than TOR in 2027. So unlikely to net any value.

I can see the argument for the 2028 lotto pick being a higher likelihood of a lotto pick than any of distant could-be-anything picks giving BOS an advantage over LAC in the trade package they received.

But ... I don't see that difference being as great as Sam Vecenie was making it out to be. That BOS got much more valuable picks than LAC. A bit more value not much more value - I can go along with that.

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That also ignores the other part of the package which is a 28 going on 29 year old Brandon Ingram at $40mil + a decent young player in Gradey Dick who has talent but hasn't figured out to use it effectively yet ... versus ... a 36 year old Paul George on near $60mil.

Right.  Ingram + Dick have neutral to slightly positive value.  Paul George has deeply negative value.

And, while Kawhi is better than JB, he's less durable and is significantly older.  And, Kawhi limited his own value by only agreeing to go to two teams.

So, we *should* have gotten more for JB than the Clips got for Kawhi.  But, we didn't.

[Neurotic Guy]

This is the Sam Vincenie podcast. Excellent first hour re trade, Philly and then more Cs. 

https://www.youtube.com/live/ADUKNZmm9HM?is=Uh9NG4NAMdVYTTg6

[Roy H.]

There would have been nothing preventing BOS from paying Brown less.  I doubt Brown would have accepted less.

He wouldn't have accepted it at this point, but I don't see what the hurry to deal him was.

The thing about the 2nd round picks is the likelihood of being early.  No one prefers seconds to firsts but two 31-35 picks isn?t far off from one 22-28 pick.    I?d take the 1 first, but the two seconds are decent value comparatively.  Draft is usually a crapshoot after 20.

More likely Brad will trade the seconds to dump salary.