Jaylen Traded to PHI for PG, 2 First Round Picks & 2 Second Round Picks

[Neurotic Guy]

There would have been nothing preventing BOS from paying Brown less.  I doubt Brown would have accepted less.

He wouldn't have accepted it at this point, but I don't see what the hurry to deal him was.

The thing about the 2nd round picks is the likelihood of being early.  No one prefers seconds to firsts but two 31-35 picks isn?t far off from one 22-28 pick.    I?d take the 1 first, but the two seconds are decent value comparatively.  Draft is usually a crapshoot after 20. 

[Roy H.]

Sam Vecenie argues BOS got more for Jaylen than LAC got for Kawhi because the picks BOS got from PHI are more valuable than the picks LAC got from TOR.

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The picks

PHI picks = likely lotto pick 2028 + could be anything 2031 unprotected pick + two 2nd rounds which are likely early 2nd rounders.

TOR picks = unprotected 2031 & 2033 picks + pick swap in 2027 + two 2nd rounders in 2030 & 2033.

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I don't care much about 2nd rounders. They are not worthless but they are close to worthless. So I am just looking at the first round picks.

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So the argument was that Toronto should still be good in those years. I don't know about that argument. It is so far off in the future you have no idea what the team will look like. Teams generally have 3-4 different groups within a 10 year period. Those picks are 5 and 7 years forward from now.

We have no idea what those picks will be. I view them as could-be-anything picks the same way I view Philly's 2031 pick.

The 2027 pick swap doesn't seem to have any benefit. LAC should be much worse than TOR in 2027. So unlikely to net any value.

I can see the argument for the 2028 lotto pick being a higher likelihood of a lotto pick than any of distant could-be-anything picks giving BOS an advantage over LAC in the trade package they received.

But ... I don't see that difference being as great as Sam Vecenie was making it out to be. That BOS got much more valuable picks than LAC. A bit more value not much more value - I can go along with that.

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That also ignores the other part of the package which is a 28 going on 29 year old Brandon Ingram at $40mil + a decent young player in Gradey Dick who has talent but hasn't figured out to use it effectively yet ... versus ... a 36 year old Paul George on near $60mil.

Right.  Ingram + Dick have neutral to slightly positive value.  Paul George has deeply negative value.

And, while Kawhi is better than JB, he's less durable and is significantly older.  And, Kawhi limited his own value by only agreeing to go to two teams.

So, we *should* have gotten more for JB than the Clips got for Kawhi.  But, we didn't.

[Neurotic Guy]

This is the Sam Vincenie podcast. Excellent first hour re trade, Philly and then more Cs. 

https://www.youtube.com/live/ADUKNZmm9HM?is=Uh9NG4NAMdVYTTg6

[Roy H.]

There would have been nothing preventing BOS from paying Brown less.  I doubt Brown would have accepted less.

He wouldn't have accepted it at this point, but I don't see what the hurry to deal him was.

The thing about the 2nd round picks is the likelihood of being early.  No one prefers seconds to firsts but two 31-35 picks isn?t far off from one 22-28 pick.    I?d take the 1 first, but the two seconds are decent value comparatively.  Draft is usually a crapshoot after 20.

More likely Brad will trade the seconds to dump salary. 

[Kernewek]

I'm glad all the drama has come down a bit. I understand emotional reactions when a foundational player, who was here for 10 years, gets traded for a package that the majority finds to be inadequate.

But we still have a very talented team that won 56 games this season. And we basically have replaced Brown and Vucevic for a recovered Tatum, George and Robinson. In my book this means we'll be better. Even if the East may be stronger too. The Celtics are 4th with the bookmakers in Championship odds and that means we're a contender, although not a favorite.

Through the years we have experienced some cutthroat actons with team favorites and (former) All Stars. The last 13 years among others Pierce, Garnett, Rondo, Thomas, Smart, Williams, Porzingis and Holiday come to mind. Lots of criticism and truly felt pain almost every time.

Nonetheless, in hindsight almost every trade turned out to be the right call. The Celtics survived or made quick progress. In my opinion the Celtics management deserves the benefit of the doubt, in particular Brad Stevens.

Agreed, but we have a whole offseason to gnash our teeth about it, so might as well gnash away,

I think "In ________ we trust" is generally a pretty scary form of passivity and/or cognitive dissonance.  Putting your blind faith in anybody is pretty asinine.  It's particularly popular in politics, but there's plenty of it in sports.  The idea that management is always right should make anybody cringe.

I realised I never replied to this - obvious bait though it is - but, for the record, this is an incredible misreading of 'let the experts do their jobs, and we'll find out if they were right during the season'.

It's just sports, and we'll see what happens with the C's in time.

[Vermont Green]

I think "In ________ we trust" is generally a pretty scary form of passivity and/or cognitive dissonance.  Putting your blind faith in anybody is pretty asinine.  It's particularly popular in politics, but there's plenty of it in sports.  The idea that management is always right should make anybody cringe.

I realised I never replied to this - obvious bait though it is - but, for the record, this is an incredible misreading of 'let the experts do their jobs, and we'll find out if they were right during the season'.

It's just sports, and we'll see what happens with the C's in time.

This is getting into a much broader interpretation of this than just sports.  It is really not comparable to equate believing Trump when he says this is the greatest deal ever made or something like that (or I won the election) with giving Brad Stevens some level of benefit of the doubt on a basketball trade.

I don't like this trade.  I have said this over and over.  I don't think the team is better for the trade.  But over the last whatever years, Stevens has made a lot of good trades and other moves.  His proven track record is pretty good  This trade is probably more about the extension than anything, and concern about how Brown would act without an extension.  Stevens is privy to information/discussions we are not.

All the questions about the trade are fair, why now, why not wait for a better deal, and so on.  We'll see if we learn any more about this from the press conference today.  In particular, what lead to the urgency.  There have been weird trades in the NBA lately, driven by the new tax and apron penalties, most notably, Luka for Anthony Davis and now Brown for Paul George.

[SHAQATTACK]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

[Roy H.]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

From what it sounds like, JB didn't demand a trade, and wasn't involved in picking his destination.

[GreenEnvy]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

From what it sounds like, JB didn't demand a trade, and wasn't involved in picking his destination.

It?s been reported that the C?s did check with him on certain destinations, including Charlotte that he said he wasn?t interested in.

[Vermont Green]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

From what it sounds like, JB didn't demand a trade, and wasn't involved in picking his destination.

I am not sure if Brown wanted to be traded or not.  He has not come right out and said he wanted to be traded, but he gave signals by saying things like "I have always sacrificed", "I am the best 2-way player in the league".  He probably also made clear to the team that he expected a future max extension this off season.  Again, not a public demand for a trade but perhaps a signal that if he is not given a super max extension, there could be issues, less willing to "sacrifice", or whatever.  This is all conjecture on my part, I don't know any of this.

Brown is under contract for 3 years by his current supermax contract.  I am not sure if extending him now is good business or not.  Also, if Brown is a 1B with a 1A contact now, and this is diminishing his trade value, what happens to his trade value if they extend him?  This is kind of where DAL got with Luka.  You don't want to extend the player and if you don't, it is essentially a vote of non-support.  I don't know that this is the issue here, what led to the urgency, just trying to connect dots.

[ETNCeltics]

I'm not upset about trading Brown, and if the picks allow Brad to make another move, maybe he'll make the team better.

What makes no sense to me is taking on PG's albatross of a contract in the process. If he had only one yr left, I'd get it. I'll be interested to hear their explanation of that mess.

[rondohondo]

I'm not upset about trading Brown, and if the picks allow Brad to make another move, maybe he'll make the team better.

What makes no sense to me is taking on PG's albatross of a contract in the process. If he had only one yr left, I'd get it. I'll be interested to hear their explanation of that mess.

It's one year shorter than JB's contract, so it gives the C's a bunch of cap room a year sooner (since they weren't going to give JB the max anyway). Or he can be moved with draft picks next year as an expiring contract.

[Roy H.]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

From what it sounds like, JB didn't demand a trade, and wasn't involved in picking his destination.

I am not sure if Brown wanted to be traded or not.  He has not come right out and said he wanted to be traded, but he gave signals by saying things like "I have always sacrificed", "I am the best 2-way player in the league".  He probably also made clear to the team that he expected a future max extension this off season.  Again, not a public demand for a trade but perhaps a signal that if he is not given a super max extension, there could be issues, less willing to "sacrifice", or whatever.  This is all conjecture on my part, I don't know any of this.

Brown is under contract for 3 years by his current supermax contract.  I am not sure if extending him now is good business or not.  Also, if Brown is a 1B with a 1A contact now, and this is diminishing his trade value, what happens to his trade value if they extend him?  This is kind of where DAL got with Luka.  You don't want to extend the player and if you don't, it is essentially a vote of non-support.  I don't know that this is the issue here, what led to the urgency, just trying to connect dots.

It's impossible to know if he "wanted" a trade.  But, variious reports say he didn't ask for one.  I'm pretty confident that if JB had to pick his destination, Philadelphia would have been far down his list. Yes, they are a playoff team, but his role is going to be at best unclear. When MB is healthy, he is probably going to end up being a third option..

Watching his live stream was strange, in that he seemed legitimately hurt by the trade. Maybe it's ego, but I get the sense that he just wants to feel appreciated.  I don't like a lot of the things that he says or posts, but on a basic level, I can understand the desire and the need to be embraced.  For many of us, the giant compensation would have been enough, but I feel like for some people they need to feel both wanted and loved.

[Roy H.]

I?m playing checkers ,  Brad is playing three dimensional chess. Not a clue about his vision and moves for the future . 

Maybe off court with both parties there was too much hurt feelings for JB to remain on the team after the trade talks and Brad put him in a situation of his choosing.  Which I agree is a smack in the face of us loyal fans.  Costing the franchise and fans at JBs pleasure.

Time will tell .

From what it sounds like, JB didn't demand a trade, and wasn't involved in picking his destination.

It?s been reported that the C?s did check with him on certain destinations, including Charlotte that he said he wasn?t interested in.

I haven't read that.  Who reported that?  Link?

If Brad was hell bent on trading JB, the rumored Charlotte deal and potential follow up with Phoenix is the one that I wish we had taken. Beyond the Giannis deal, that is.

[LilRip]

I'm not upset about trading Brown, and if the picks allow Brad to make another move, maybe he'll make the team better.

What makes no sense to me is taking on PG's albatross of a contract in the process. If he had only one yr left, I'd get it. I'll be interested to hear their explanation of that mess.

It's one year shorter than JB's contract, so it gives the C's a bunch of cap room a year sooner (since they weren't going to give JB the max anyway). Or he can be moved with draft picks next year as an expiring contract.

Paul George is going to be like Theo Ratliff! The problem is, I do not know who will be the next KG