Jaylen Traded to PHI for PG, 2 First Round Picks & 2 Second Round Picks

[Larry for 3]

There has to be some explanation here that we are not aware of.
This trade is so far off what Brad has done historically when he has acquired productive talent that fit the team's needs and chemistry on very reasonable terms.

Maybe there are more moves now or down the road that will end up greatly improving the team in the long run.

A very bad possibility could be this move was forced by new ownership who are only in this for the money and did not want to deal with Brown's extension.

If the reason comes out that this was done because Jaylen had become very unhappy over being shopped, then ok, maybe. But if that was the case, Brad could surely have waited for a better offer. Also, Brown's reaction to the trade indicated he was taken by surprise and very disappointed to be leaving Boston, though his social media comments could have been only for effect and were not sincere.

As it stands now, this makes no sense.

Well, in terms of basketball (paraphrasing from another thread), if the Celtics FO believes that:

• This team is going to be better than last year's team, and the drop off from JB to PG won't be as extreme as it seems
• A team lead by JT and JB can't meaningfully compete for a championship
• Brown isn't worth the contract extension and he won't be happy if he isn't extended, which will impact his play

Then there's a strong argument that it's better to position the team for a deep playoff run in two years' time, where we will have enough space for another max contract, a fully reset repeater tax clock, and a very high pick from the Clippers in time for a very deep free agency pool - versus running it back with the Jays and not a ton of help (because the team is pretty limited in what they can build around both of them this offseason if they stay put).

And how does Tatum feel about that? You go ahead and tell him sit tight Jason we?ll make out move in 2 years. Any kind of competitor would be thinking maybe it?s time to move away from Boston. And if he doesn?t care that?s concerning too. But Why are people ok with throwing away seasons ?  I don?t get it.

[Who]

NY Times / The Athletic

Another team with widely reported interest, the Trail Blazers, similarly did not join the chase. A Blazers team source said the Blazers were never enamored with Brown, even before Boston made it known he was available on the trade market.

Two factors went into the Blazers? disinterest: Their analytics viewed him as a negative player and the Celtics? asking price was too high. ?We were never aggressively looking to trade for him,? a team source said. ?And particularly not at their price.?

If this was the case, I do not understand why they were linked so strongly to Jaylen both during the Giannis talks and after the Giannis talks ended. It looked like they had strong interest during both periods.

I believe the 2nd reason that they thought the asking price was too high. That is why they went with Morant who was cheaper. And they could maintain their core team & young talent & draft picks by picking Morant over Jaylen.

If your analytics really show Jaylen as a net negative player, why would you pursue him at all? Because you had no faith in your analytics department? So it doesn't matter one way or another whether the analytics liked him or not. They ignored the analytics department. At least that is what it looks like to me.

This (analytics explanation) feels more like an attempt to write off why they didn't get Jaylen rather than a real reason why they didn't want him.

[Who]

More from that NY Times / The Athletic article

The cool market suggested the existence of a significant gap between the general perception of Brown, who finished sixth in MVP voting this season, and the way he is seen within the NBA.

Though the idea of him being viewed as the seventh-best player on a given team was widely mocked, a recent report that one front-office member saw Brown in that way illuminated the reality that advanced analytics never shined too brightly on Brown?s game.

Even more pointedly, a current general manager, speaking anonymously to comment on internal team discussions, told The Athletic in the wake of the trade that he doesn?t view Brown as a top-50 player in the NBA.

This next quote is from a talk between Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon

You saw this trade and let's be honest the initial reaction was ?what the bleep?!?, and this other GM says ?this is a classic case of the credit goes to the guy who scores but they're not driving team success. There's guys like this all over the league.

The difference is he's not at 40 million and like a Brandon Ingram. He's at 60 million and then look, he's rounding up and and then he's going to be at 60 soon, right? And then it gets into it gets into the CBA and the cap rules and the apron.

[Kernewek]

There has to be some explanation here that we are not aware of.
This trade is so far off what Brad has done historically when he has acquired productive talent that fit the team's needs and chemistry on very reasonable terms.

Maybe there are more moves now or down the road that will end up greatly improving the team in the long run.

A very bad possibility could be this move was forced by new ownership who are only in this for the money and did not want to deal with Brown's extension.

If the reason comes out that this was done because Jaylen had become very unhappy over being shopped, then ok, maybe. But if that was the case, Brad could surely have waited for a better offer. Also, Brown's reaction to the trade indicated he was taken by surprise and very disappointed to be leaving Boston, though his social media comments could have been only for effect and were not sincere.

As it stands now, this makes no sense.

Well, in terms of basketball (paraphrasing from another thread), if the Celtics FO believes that:

• This team is going to be better than last year's team, and the drop off from JB to PG won't be as extreme as it seems
• A team lead by JT and JB can't meaningfully compete for a championship
• Brown isn't worth the contract extension and he won't be happy if he isn't extended, which will impact his play

Then there's a strong argument that it's better to position the team for a deep playoff run in two years' time, where we will have enough space for another max contract, a fully reset repeater tax clock, and a very high pick from the Clippers in time for a very deep free agency pool - versus running it back with the Jays and not a ton of help (because the team is pretty limited in what they can build around both of them this offseason if they stay put).

And how does Tatum feel about that? You go ahead and tell him sit tight Jason we?ll make out move in 2 years. Any kind of competitor would be thinking maybe it?s time to move away from Boston. And if he doesn?t care that?s concerning too. But Why are people ok with throwing away seasons ?  I don?t get it.

I get what you're saying - and I don't want to speak for the front office/have no idea of the conversations that are being had - but I presume you hammer home point one "the team is just as good, we are going to be able to get much better in the near future, let's make sure this season you really get back to 100% where you were before the injury" and so on and so on.

[Who]

ESPN

"The league is overrun with strategy," an Eastern Conference scout said. "Honestly, I'm not sure how many people who work in the league are actually watching the games." "Yes, there are more graduate degrees in front offices now, but that's only part of the picture," a Western Conference general manager said.

"The aprons force you to analyze all of your spending more and put more attention to detail on getting the most out of each salary slot. The owners put that into the rules, and the players accepted it. This is all a choice."

This Jaylen Brown stuff sure makes it feel that way.

[Who]

This is detailed post by Databallr on Jaylen's stats

I marked sections in blue bold to help breakup the text to make it easier to read. Also, here is the twitter link if it is easier for some to read there.

https://x.com/databallr/status/2072840519890391207

databallr
@databallr

Here's my explanation of why Jaylen Brown's offensive analytics are underwhelming:

Jaylen Brown is a great scorer.

But "great scorer" and "offensive engine" are not the same thing.

An offensive engine creates impact in 3 distinct ways:

1. Score efficiently on big volume
2. Reduce team turnovers while carrying huge usage
3. Create better shots for teammates

That is what people mean by offensive impact.

Not just: did you score points?
Not just: did you get assists?

Did the team score points more efficiently because you were on the floor?

Jaylen is interesting because he had a good scoring season. I estimate his scoring impact last year around +2, the best mark of his career.

But if we are asking whether he is an elite offensive engine, the bar is much higher.

Let's start with scoring efficiency.

Jaylen took around 36 shots per 100 possessions at 57.5% TS last season. ("shots" includes freethrow possessions).

At that volume, TS% (True Shooting Percentage) has enormous leverage. Every 1% of TS% is worth roughly +0.6 points per 100 possessions on the scoreboard.

So the gap between 57.5 TS% and 62 TS% is not cosmetic. It matters. That is roughly +2.5 points of offensive impact.   Scoring at 62% TS would move him from a top 50 per possession analytics season to a top 20 one last year. 

But right now, among high-usage offensive stars, the efficiency gap is clear.

Shai: 67.0 TS%
Giannis: 65.9%
Curry: 64.8%
Kawhi: 63.3%
Luka: 61.8%
Mitchell: 61.7%
Brunson: 59%

Jaylen: 57.5 TS%

Jaylen?s scoring still has value because the volume is massive, but he's not generating the impact that some of these other guys do from scoring.

The second path is turnover value.

This part is underrated. If you are using a huge number of your team's possessions, how often you turn the ball over before you shoot matters on the scoreboard.
 
Historically, a lot of high-volume creators give their teams a significant advantage in the turnover game.  Jordan, Kobe, Iverson, Lou Will, T-Mac, Melo, Shai, Kawhi, Brunson types.  All of these guys have generated significant impact from reducing team turnovers and it's clear as day in the impact analytics.

They shoot a ton, and they also help the team avoid turnovers because the possession ends in a shot instead of a mistake more often than the league does.

Jaylen does not provide that kind of impact.

His box-score profile estimates his offensive turnover impact around neutral, historically, and last year. The 5-year lineup data, and the eyes, agree.

That does not mean he is killing the offense with turnovers.

It means he is not creating the turnover advantage that many true engines create.

Let's look at a stat called "Scoring Turnover Rate". It is defined as non-passing turnovers divided by scoring attempts.  It's typically the ball handlers fault when he turns it over on something that isn't a pass.   

Here are some high usage scorers around the league in Scoring Turnover Rate (Lower is better)

Jaylen Brown: 10.3%
Giannis: 10.5%
Paolo: 9%
Ant: 6.6%
Shai: 4.4%.
Kawhi: 5.5%.
Brunson: 4.1%
Mitchell: 5.3%
Tatum: 6.5% (2025)

Lower is better, and when the scoring volume is massive this accumulates to a meaningful amount of turnover differences between players which translates to offensive impact.

You see Brunson scored at 59% TS, a down year for him, but he turned the ball on handling related mistakes, per scoring attempt, at 4.1% vs Jaylen's 10.3%. 

If you are on-ball enough to shoot over a third of your team?s shots, ball security gets magnified. The skill of getting to your shot without losing the possession is a big part of offensive value.

Top players can generate up to +2.5 points of offensive impact from reducing team turnovers.

Imagine if you could just imbue Jaylen Brown with Kawhi's handle.  How much better would you feel about him having the ball in his hands even if he was shooting the same shots at the same efficiency.  Instinctively, you know it matters, analytically it undeniably does.  Having Kawhi's turnover economy alone would move him from a top 50 analytics season to a top 20 one last year.

(Passing turnovers matter too and he's average there but it's less meaningful to discuss because he's not passing the ball that much.)

The third path is playmaking.

Jaylen took 36 shots per 100 possessions and generates only 13 potential assists per 100 (shots, if they were made, that would be an assist for JB).

He shoots almost 3x as much he directly creates a potential assist. He's much more of a scorer than he is a passer.

Shai is at 34 shots to 18 potential assists which is lower than 2:1 ratio.  So you see, even the best scorer in the league has a more balanced distribution of shots and potential assists. 

Jaylen averages only around 2 rim assists per 100, which is low compared to the best playmakers, so he's not creating obvious value via lobs and easy layups. 

[Back to Jaylen's offense vs offensive engine]

A scoring heavy profile can be great if the scoring efficiency and turnover efficiency are overwhelming like it is for Kawhi or Shai, but neither are for Jaylen.  That's the problem.  Just one of the two being elite, or both being good, can be enough to get him to engine status.  But he has neither.  Perhaps he can still improve.

But if the scoring efficiency is low for the top stars, and the turnover value is around neutral, and the playmaking is limited, the elite-engine case falls apart.  It just does.

You have other players like Cade and LaMelo who have similar scoring efficiency profiles to Jaylen, but those players are elite playmakers according to both the analytics and the public.  Not only are they passing the ball a lot more, but they are generating a ton of assists to players at the rim, which are markers of elite playmaking.

The point is not that Jaylen Brown is bad.

He is a positive player who plays a lot of minutes.

The point is that his team impact has been very weak for a supermax offensive centerpiece because he has not proven himself to be a real offensive engine.

[The Trade - Verdict]

The question is whether he can become one in Philly. I think the Boston system was a pretty awesome environment to thrive.  If Jaylen Brown was playing elsewhere and traded to Boston I would be bullish on his fit there.  I just don't really see Maxey and Embiid as being the type of players that fit particularly well with him and increase his impact.  Its certainly going to reduce his usage, which might be good.  I'm not sure JB is in his optimal role as a ultra high usage player with his current handling.

I think Jaylen becoming more impactful offensively is mostly about his own skill development as a handler/3P shooter, and an improvement in shot selection.  There's a lot of upside for him if he does that.  Most people can't create the shots that Jaylen does.  So that's the thing with Jaylen.

In any case, I'm excited to see how it plays out next year. 

As for who won the trade? 

I like it for Boston.  They are fixing a potential long term salary cap issue and bringing in PG who can provide 2 way impact Boston.  He's a much better 3 point shooter and defender.  His durability and decline is the main issue.

Really I think Philly is rolling the dice on whether Jaylen Brown can improve.  If he does it could turn out to be an excellent trade.  If he's the same player here as he was in Boston, I don't think it's a good trade.  The contract is massive and the synergy with Maxey/Embiid is questionable.

It is interesting that Jaylen is neutral on turnovers. I would have expected him to be negative. Not a huge negative but a negative all the same.

[kraidstar]

This trade will pay big dividends for Philly in the playoffs. That is also where Boston will be exposed as a fraud. Celtics will get knocked out in the second round. Maybe earlier.

Jaylen will also help Philly depth-wise in the regular season.

Everyone is coping touting this nonsense that Brown can't fit in with Philly's other stars. He doesn't even have to. They can spread out minutes so their big 4 are playing with bench players etc.  This makes them deeper.

[goCeltics]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

[Roy H.]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

[rondohondo]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

And then he realized it wasn't helping him and admitted as much. Didn't seem to hurt him in the playoffs where he put up pretty consistent numbers with great shooting....

Do you think Bill Walton ever used illicit drugs? 🤔

[Roy H.]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

And then he realized it wasn't helping him and admitted as much. Didn't seem to hurt him in the playoffs where he put up pretty consistent numbers with great shooting....

Do you think Bull Walton ever used illicit drugs? 🤔

Pretty sure he wasn't taking animal tranquilizers.  The dude is a mentally unstable loser.

[rondohondo]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

And then he realized it wasn't helping him and admitted as much. Didn't seem to hurt him in the playoffs where he put up pretty consistent numbers with great shooting....

Do you think Bull Walton ever used illicit drugs? 🤔

Pretty sure he wasn't taking animal tranquilizers.  The dude is a mentally unstable loser.

Pretty sure he might have used lsd.... Mr dead head himself....

[goCeltics]

I'm sure those mental health issues will resolve themselves as he enters a somewhat hostile environment, with a fan base that's already highly irritated because a player who spent 10 years with the team and won them a championship was controversially traded to make room for him. No doubt this is exactly the kind of supportive environment PG needs to succeed. I'm sure Brad and Zarren have already factored all of this into their spreadsheet.

[Roy H.]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

And then he realized it wasn't helping him and admitted as much. Didn't seem to hurt him in the playoffs where he put up pretty consistent numbers with great shooting....

Do you think Bull Walton ever used illicit drugs? 🤔

Pretty sure he wasn't taking animal tranquilizers.  The dude is a mentally unstable loser.

Pretty sure he might have used lsd.... Mr dead head himself....

He probably did. Remind me, how did Walton's age 36 and age 37 seasons play out?

[rondohondo]

Can't wait for PG to show how much more efficient he is as a scorer while his washed-up ass sits on the bench in a suit, which is where he's spent most of the last two years. The data nerds will be in awe of his efficiency as he racks up DNP after DNP.

In fairness, 25 of those missed games were because he was illicitly using ketamine to treat his unresolved mental health issues.

And then he realized it wasn't helping him and admitted as much. Didn't seem to hurt him in the playoffs where he put up pretty consistent numbers with great shooting....

Do you think Bull Walton ever used illicit drugs? 🤔

Pretty sure he wasn't taking animal tranquilizers.  The dude is a mentally unstable loser.

Pretty sure he might have used lsd.... Mr dead head himself....

He probably did. Remind me, how did Walton's age 36 and age 37 seasons play out?

He had severe foot problems as a 7ft center....

How was andre iguodala as an older player? That would be a better comparison....