Jaylen Traded to PHI for PG, 2 First Round Picks & 2 Second Round Picks

[goCeltics]

from @keithsmithnba on x

For full clarity, here are the various options for the 2028 swap/pick the Celtics got in the trade with the Sixers:

1. If LAC is 1-16 AND PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of LAC/PHI/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

2. If LAC is 1-16 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS gets the best of LAC/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

3. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of PHI/lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

4. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS keeps lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS and gets LAC's pick outright, no swap with PHI at all

Scenario 4 is the only one where the Celtics get an extra pick. In all other scenarios they get the best of LAC or PHI, and swap the worst of their own pick or SAS.

So, Boston either comes away with a decent pick (somewhere from 1-16) through a swap, or they pick up an extra pick. Basically, root against the Clippers, Sixers and Spurs in 2028 if you are a Celtics fan.

 

And, if we're the worst of those teams, we get nothing in the first three scenarios.

Well done, Brad.

But to be fair, the pick has to be swapped with SAS first, assuming SAS has a better record. It's a hedge against that SAS pick swap they did when they got DW.

[Celtics2021]

from @keithsmithnba on x

For full clarity, here are the various options for the 2028 swap/pick the Celtics got in the trade with the Sixers:

1. If LAC is 1-16 AND PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of LAC/PHI/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

2. If LAC is 1-16 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS gets the best of LAC/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

3. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of PHI/lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

4. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS keeps lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS and gets LAC's pick outright, no swap with PHI at all

Scenario 4 is the only one where the Celtics get an extra pick. In all other scenarios they get the best of LAC or PHI, and swap the worst of their own pick or SAS.

So, Boston either comes away with a decent pick (somewhere from 1-16) through a swap, or they pick up an extra pick. Basically, root against the Clippers, Sixers and Spurs in 2028 if you are a Celtics fan.

 

And, if we're the worst of those teams, we get nothing in the first three scenarios.

Well done, Brad.

Possible, although I am very willing to wager we will not be worse than the Clippers.  They are clearly betting that they are correct that Jaylen did not add much to the team, which is what most of the league seemed to feel based on the offers we heard, and initially laughed at.

[Celtics2021]

from @keithsmithnba on x

For full clarity, here are the various options for the 2028 swap/pick the Celtics got in the trade with the Sixers:

1. If LAC is 1-16 AND PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of LAC/PHI/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

2. If LAC is 1-16 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS gets the best of LAC/[lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

3. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 1-8, then BOS gets the best of PHI/lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS]

4. If LAC is 17-30 and PHI is 9-30, then BOS keeps lesser of BOS (top-1 protected)/SAS and gets LAC's pick outright, no swap with PHI at all

Scenario 4 is the only one where the Celtics get an extra pick. In all other scenarios they get the best of LAC or PHI, and swap the worst of their own pick or SAS.

So, Boston either comes away with a decent pick (somewhere from 1-16) through a swap, or they pick up an extra pick. Basically, root against the Clippers, Sixers and Spurs in 2028 if you are a Celtics fan.

 

And, if we're the worst of those teams, we get nothing in the first three scenarios.

Well done, Brad.

But to be fair, the pick has to be swapped with SAS first, assuming SAS has a better record. It's a hedge against that SAS pick swap they did when they got DW.

Yes, forgot about that part (although I remembered it at the time of the trade).  It is very likely to move up a good deal, which is why it is a swap and not an outright pick, unless the Philly/Clippers pick is outside the top 16.

[Jiri Welsch]

Seems like Brad felt, despite there being three years on his contract, that Brown?s value was only going to go down over time. And if they knew he wasn?t coming back this was the time to get anything back.

[tenn_smoothie]

I feel like after 2025 it was going to be a 2 year rebuild.

Summer of 2027 was always the goal. Boston was going to reset things financially and go from there.

These were my thoughts exactly.

If Brown had become so upset that he wanted out after he learned that he was being shopped around the league, then find a decent trade that brings back solid role players and maybe draft picks, players who will contribute to the very serious title contender we will have after acquiring a star center in the summer of 2027. It was not necessary to get an all-star back for Brown at this time. Maybe by the start of the 2027-28 season, we also have replaced Mazzulla with a competent head coach.

[tenn_smoothie]

PG is a two year experiment where they probably dump him after he opts in for his last year.

Yeah, that is how I see it. This is a 1 year period with PG13 and then he becomes an expiring contract. Then Brad will look to trade his expiring deal + the picks + BOS future picks to net a superstar back in return.

So next summer (12 months time) or the 2028 trade deadline (18 months time), Brad makes his move to put BOS back into title contention and sets BOS up to stay there for the remainder of Tatum's best years.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, that's interesting. What kind of return could Paul George bring back from a trade during his expiring year ?

Although, can't George make his final year a moot point by opting out and becoming a free agent, which would result in us losing him with zero return ?

[SparzWizard]

The anticipated drama and heated storyline. Jaylen Brown vs Jayson Tatum. I bet Brown has been licking his chops itching to face Tatum on the court as an opponent.

Celtics might be on the wrong side of the spotlight once the season begins.

Opening night could be the Celtics visiting New York to watch them raise their banner. Then the next game the Celtics may have their home opener against Brown and the 76ers. NBA likes drama man

[LilRip]

Wouldn?t surprise me if JB wanted to either ?extend or have a chance to lead his own team?. I don?t think Brad/Ownership was going to be willing to extend. So I think the plan from the start was to trade JB this summer or next, depending on the offers.

Getting an old PG? that?s like getting an old Ray Allen. I don?t think PG is washed (he was good against us in the playoffs) but he?s not a franchise player and nowhere near the Indiana version of PG.

He can help this team but to be a contender, someone has to step up and be a legit 3rd star. The league has flattened out, and that probably helps.

Also, I don?t think Philly will be as good as advertised. JB will be good but he isn?t going to put them over the top. Maybe I?m a ?hater? but that Philly team will still only go as far as Embiid?s health will take them. JB will win them a few more games in the regular season tho

[Damiano Brancopreto]

Can't believe it 
Not at the level of Luka for A.Davis, but not too far either

[Celtics4ever]

Horrible trade, by every metric.

[Neurotic Guy]

The anticipated drama and heated storyline. Jaylen Brown vs Jayson Tatum. I bet Brown has been licking his chops itching to face Tatum on the court as an opponent.

Celtics might be on the wrong side of the spotlight once the season begins.

Opening night could be the Celtics visiting New York to watch them raise their banner. Then the next game the Celtics may have their home opener against Brown and the 76ers. NBA likes drama man

The fact that JB may be licking his chops to face JT wouldn?t be proof of a terrible relationship. I would expect that of him regardless.  Honestly, the only reason I?m not sure if I expect the same of JT is because his personality doesn?t seem to have the same ego needs as JB. But maybe it?s there as well, just not as demonstrative about it.

[Neurotic Guy]

PG is a two year experiment where they probably dump him after he opts in for his last year.

Yeah, that is how I see it. This is a 1 year period with PG13 and then he becomes an expiring contract. Then Brad will look to trade his expiring deal + the picks + BOS future picks to net a superstar back in return.

So next summer (12 months time) or the 2028 trade deadline (18 months time), Brad makes his move to put BOS back into title contention and sets BOS up to stay there for the remainder of Tatum's best years.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, that's interesting. What kind of return could Paul George bring back from a trade during his expiring year ?

Although, can't George make his final year a moot point by opting out and becoming a free agent, which would result in us losing him with zero return ?

I?m curious about this as well. I know an expiring contract makes it tradable, but not sure that teams give up big talent for it. Interested to know what others think. As to opting out, it would be a miracle. That would be PG leaving 10s of millions of dollars (maybe 50) on the table as no chance he?d get anything close as a FA.

[boscel33]

So, I feel this morning the same way I felt on June 19, 1986.

I've been a fan of this team since the early 70's and am just gutted today.

I was a #JKJB from the beginning, cheered when they drafted him when others booed.  This year, I would have been OK with the Giannis deal, but felt Giannis and JB7 were closer to each other than others.

Other trades I suggested we only because it felt like the divorce was final and we were waiting on the decision of which parent to choose.  Man, I'd love to have seen the Jay's with Robinson!

It's going to take some time to get over this.  I won't be around here posting for a while.  Have a great summer.

[BitterJim]

@Celtics2021 - After this trade, and with the Robinson signing, can we still use the TPE?

Is it possible that Stevens will use the TPE to take on Murphy for the picks he just got?

How does the cap work for this? Is there a certain order?

Do any cap people know the answer to this? I think we would go over teh 1st apron, but is this possible?

If we end up with George, Murphy, and Robinson this off-season, we would be a better team.

Currently no.  We're about $2 million below the tax line.  Even if we spent up to our first apron cap, we'd only be able to use around $10 million of the MLE.

Right. Here's the spotrac of our cap - excluding JB we have $123.4m in active salaries, and incoming salaries of $74.1m, for a total of $197.5m. The tax line is $200m, the first apron is $209m, the second apron $221.m. So we are $2.5m under the tax line now.

(click to anlarge)


With all the extensions due next year we will almost certainly be over in, meaning the only chance to reset it is really being under it this year, which means we only have $2.5m to spend of that MLE, or we can only absorb the same amount into the $27m Simons TPE. If the first apron is the threshold they are working with then we could spend $10-12m of it. If they're willing to go just under the 2nd apron with a non-contending team, then they could spend up to $23m, either absorb that salary into our TPE or use a combination of that and the MLE.

And technically, by making the team worse, Brad is probably more likely to stay below the tax line to reset the repeater rate this season, since it will be nearly impossible to do so next season. So unless he gets a player that really makes us a serious contender, I'm guessing the tax line is the threshold.

A couple of corrections: we used the full MLE on Mitchell Robinson, so we don't have it available anymore and are hard capped at the first apron. So ~$10 million is the max we could increase our salary by.

That said, if Hauser were included in the deal we could use an additional ~10 million of the TPE, so there are ways to use more of it

[mef730]

Crap, I was really hoping I?d wake up and realize that it had all been a bad dream.