At This point, Any Chance JB can Return to Celtics?

[Celtics2021]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

[Phantom255x]

I think at this point he is staying

[lbgreen33]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

[Bobshot]

I am  a media skeptic, especially the NY types. Don't believe much I see about Celtics or Red Sox.

Was Brown part of a Giannis deal? He had to be. Apparently Stevens said no to adding more players.
Giannis fit the need, but he played 36 games last season with those soft knees of his. A bit of a risk.

All this talk about Brown being overrated and Stevens desperate to trade him (howl) came out of NY--ESPN or The Athletic.
Take it with a grain of salt.

Brown was never going to be dealt for lesser players. Stevens made his usual astute signings with Conley and Robinson.
He drafted a kid who could be the second coming of Dennis Rodman down the line.

I'm satisfied. Just cut down on the 3s, please.

[Celtics2021]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

It is not what I would do, but things are different now than they were then, and both teams have won a title with their respective pick.

[Vermont Green]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

The repeater tax inflicts some pain, that is for sure, but it inflicts a lot less pain if you are only $1M-$2M over vs. $20M or $50M over.  They have to stay under this season to reset and that will only buy them a few seasons of non-repeater status.  I don't see it as the end of the world if they are over the tax but under the first apron for this season.  They would remain a repeater but if they are only say $2M or $3M over, it shouldn't break the bank.  I know, easy for me to say, but it is what, a $6B franchise?

They are now hard capped at the first apron due to using the full MLE on Robinson.  There is about $9M between the tax line and the first apron.  If they went right up to the first apron, that would be about $30M in taxes as a repeater, about half that as a non-repeater, so max about a $15M cost for being a repeater vs. not, absolute worst case.  I think the franchise can handle that without a major impact on the bottom line.  The franchise probably appreciates in value 20X that every year, at least.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

It's always possible he returns, but it sounds like the Celtics have 8-10 offers for him. It seems like its just a matter of time right now.

[lbgreen33]

Shams, Today claiming the Celtics Now Strongly Shopping JB.  I really Miss Woj, but everyone in the league knows Shams is now the man at ESPN. So that can mean GMs use him sure, but is also pretty tapped in. I just want this over already

[trickybilly]

Wait, Neemias, Amari, Mitchel Rob. Feels like Jaylen is big trade bait. Or maybe this "need to strengthen inside" claptrap is mantra.

[Vermont Green]

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

It isn't Brown for Murray though.  It is Murray and Cam Johnson for Brown and Hauser that was proposed I believe.  This would add salary.  I would not be for this trade as I don't think Murray has sufficient durability.  I certainly would not do Brown for Murray straight up.

[lbgreen33]

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

It isn't Brown for Murray though.  It is Murray and Cam Johnson for Brown and Hauser that was proposed I believe.  This would add salary.  I would not be for this trade as I don't think Murray has sufficient durability.  I certainly would not do Brown for Murray straight up.

True, but Johnson is on an expiring, so who knows.

[Moranis]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

because Boston needs a playmaker more than it needs a player that is basically a worse version of Tatum.   Murray's skill set is what the team currently lacks.   And while Murray is more inconsistent than Brown, I do think Murray's absolute peak is higher than Brown's.  Murray's numbers as a 2nd option overall are better than Brown as well.  Brown is a better defender, but on a team with White, Tatum, and now Robinson that difference doesnt matter as much whereas a player with a high assist to turnover ratio that is an elite shooter and can put pressure on defenses from the point of attack has more value.  And for all the questions about Murray's durability, he played in more games than Brown last year AND the year before. 

[keevsnick]

Well the longer they wait the harder it gets to trade him. His 57-million-dollar salary means the c's will almost certainly have to take back at least 2-3 players in any deal to make the money work and the C's already have a full roster of 15 (14 if they cut Banton).  The C's are also now right around the tax, which makes taking back MORE money than Brown's salary difficult if their goal is avoiding the tax.

Meanwhile the rest of the league is filling out their rosters in free agency, which is only going to make absorbing a 57 million dollar contract more difficult.

None of this makes it impossible to trade Brown, just a little more difficult than a week ago.

Here's an example: One popular trade idea is Brown+Hauser for Murray+Johnson on the Nuggets. The problem now is that ADDS 5.2 million in salary to the C's. That's 5.2 million they can't easily jettison. So if their goal is "stay under tax" this construction is probably no longer viable.

While true, Johnson is a $23 million expiring contract.  Since his salary would not be long-term, it would be easy for the Celtics to remain below the tax next year if they made that deal, even after extending Queta and giving him a raise, and so they could reset the repeater tax then, while still having Jamal Murray to show for the deal.

If we believe getting out of the repeater is somewhat important, then the Celtics just need some of the salary that comes back be expiring.  Or a third team gets involved.  Or there is a salary stepdown trade at the deadline like last year with Simons for Vooch.  None of these things are that hard.  Now, if there is a decree that the tax must be avoided no matter what, and before the season starts, that is more difficult.  But Brad has successfully gotten under the tax mid season on two occasions now: 2022-2023, and 2025-2026.  I do not think this affects much.

We Choose Brown over Murray correctly in the Draft, why would we change that now??? I remember that draft well, everyone was like Simmons is a beast! It turned out pretty good for the Celtics.

because Boston needs a playmaker more than it needs a player that is basically a worse version of Tatum.   Murray's skill set is what the team currently lacks.   And while Murray is more inconsistent than Brown, I do think Murray's absolute peak is higher than Brown's.  Murray's numbers as a 2nd option overall are better than Brown as well.  Brown is a better defender, but on a team with White, Tatum, and now Robinson that difference doesnt matter as much whereas a player with a high assist to turnover ratio that is an elite shooter and can put pressure on defenses from the point of attack has more value.  And for all the questions about Murray's durability, he played in more games than Brown last year AND the year before.

I would put a Brown for Murray swap somewhere between a 0% chance an a slim chance. The primary driving force of a Jaylen deal imo is money. The Celtics have decided that two 35% maxes isn't sustainable, hence the need to move Brown and why they didn't go all in on Giannis. Murray does make a little less than Brown by 7 million, but my guess is they'd prefer to break up Brown's money more.

[snively]

I would take Murray over Brown, not in a vacuum but for the C's. His ball-handling and playmaking would be huge for this team. A much better complement to Tatum.

[ozgod]

I am reading all kinds of crazy talk about the Celtics shopping JB to basically every team in the NBA.  So my question is,
do you think there is any chance at all we see JB stay with the Celtics?  Or, is this now way to far gone?

I think if you looked at all scenarios as probabilities, the probability of him staying is probably the highest of them all. I think we're falling victim to the media frenzy that has now focused on Jaylen since Giannis is off the table. All the talking heads are speculating about it, mostly without evidence or facts. All they - we - have is innuendo, Jaylen posted this on Instagram, Jaylen liked this on Twitter, Brad didn't make it explicit he's not trading him, an "anonymous league source" says Jaylen is unhappy, Jaylen didn't attend Deuce's birthday party, Jaylen is selling his house. And so on and so on. It's called apophenia - the tendency for the human brain to try and perceive meaningful patterns and connections with unrelated or random things 

But think about it from Brad's point of view. Is he going to let a guy who is under control till 2028-29 - that's 3 more years - walk for anything less than a king's ransom in return? Just because the guy is "frustrated at the approach the Celtics took in 2025-26"? If he did that, without getting his money's worth and more, for an All-NBA, All-Star player, he would be hounded out of town for financial malpractice. Plus, whoever you get back needs to integrate into the team, which is always an "if". The Jays are a known commodity, we know they can play together. People will argue about the efficiency, but that works both ways - when people propose trades its always with the assumption that we are getting the best possible version of the incoming player, and that they will fit in to the locker room and the team seamlessly, which is always an if.

There's definitely a non-zero chance that Jaylen gets traded, but (to the disappointment of his many haters here) I think it's a lot lower than people think. Brad has to think, can I get a package that at least replaces the production: 29 points/7 rebounds/5 assists, ability to defend multiple positions, leadership, and synergy with the existing team? Then how many draft picks can I ask for? There's not that many players, or groups of players, around who can do that, which is why it's not easy to trade these types of players.

The reason it keeps dragging on is media and fans keep talking about it, because it's newsworthy in a time when everyone loves to speculate, propose trades, and team-build. I don't think Brad's doing anything to keep it going 

So I got the "Jaylen is staying put" wrong...but Brad is definitely getting hounded out of town for not getting his (our) money's worth for Jaylen