If Jrue is to be traded...ideas

[keevsnick]

Especially for a team like boston which has a couple of finite options and has terrible penalties under the cap.  Even if they get out of the 2nd apron, there are still repeater tax issues to account for (which will only get worse if they do push hard when Tatum comes back with roughly the same roster). 

Teams need to not only get out of the aprons, but out of the tax entirely or it just compounds until they have to blow it all up.  This is a rebuild type blow up, because you keep Tatum.  You use his injury to get out of the tax and rebuild.

The Warriors reset by taking a gap year, doing the minimum necessary to get out of the tax, but keeping their core of Steph-Klay-Green. That makes sense for the Cs.

So what is the minimum needed to get Boston below first the 2nd Apron and secondly the luxury tax threshold? In order to avoid repeater taxes and reset that moving forward. Who would the team need to move? Who would they be allowed to keep?

It sounds like we have to move one of Jrue or Zinger to get below the 2nd Apron. So I am guessing we have to move both guys to get below the luxury tax threshold. That this would be the minimum necessary to get out of the tax.

So we keep the core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White and get out of the luxury tax range. Is that possible?

Can we keep Pritchard and Hauser as well?
Can we re-sign Horford or is he gone?

-------------------------------

Google says salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to be $154.6mil with the luxury tax $187.9mil. So we would need to be below the $187.9mil figure, right?

Core = Tatum, Jaylen, D White = $135.37 million
Pritchard and Hauser = $17.28mil
Total = $152.55 million

Then you have Scheiermann and the minimum contracts. I don't know what that will work out as. Somewhere in the $15-20mil range? Let's say $20mil. That is $172.5mil. There is still a chance they could re-sign Horford at that number.

Porzingis = $30.73mil
Jrue = $32.4mil

Hard to see them being able to keep a 4th star and get below the luxury tax. Maybe if you dump Pritchard and Hauser you could just about make the numbers work. It would be tight.

The short answer is basically yes, they could TECHNICALLY get below the tax level by trading both KP and Holiday. But to do so they'd need to trade both guys and have almost no salary coming back in return (maybe they could bring back like one 10-15 million dollar player) and that's very hard to do. Only one team in the NBA (the nets) has the room to just absorb a 30 million dollar salary.

getting below the 2nd apron is easier, its about 20 million dollars higher, so you only need to drop one of KP or Jrue. I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

I think that it's easily attainable, I'm just not sure fans would like the results much.

Its easy enough to move both guys, anybody can be moved if you attach assets. But it's very much NOT easy to move both guys without also bringing back money. Its not really a matter of weather fans like it or not, it's a matter of just mathematically there aren't a lot of ways to do it. There is literally only one NBA team who you won't have to salary match with, every other trade requires you taking back an amount of money somewhat similar to what you send out. The C's would have to trim something like 45 million dollars to get below the luxury tax line, and that is very hard to do if it doesn't involve somebody just leaving in free agency.

If you combine KP, Jrue, and Hauser, you get around $73M. So if the Celtics need to cut $45M, they can still take back around $28M in contracts.

Assume they can find a team to send Hauser, then they only need to turn $63M into $28M. If you waive and stretch KP (last resort), then they they would only need to turn Jrue?s $32M into $18M or less.

If you do a deal with Dallas, you keep Gafford at $14M and send off PJ to another team into an exception and you?ve done it. You?re below the tax.

So while it is not ideal to carry $10M/yr of dead money on the books for the next 3 years and it is also not ideal to turn 3 very good players into Gafford (while also losing Horford and Kornet), it is quite possible. That?s what Roy meant about being easily attainable, but that fans wouldn?t like it.

Yeah.  I mean, here's a simple plan that gets us below the tax:

Step one:  Trade Jrue to LAC.  We keep Kris Dunn; we reroute Norman Powell to ATL into their TPE.  Send ATL the #28 pick if necessary.  This saves $26.97 million.

Step two:  Waive and stretch KP.  (It makes more sense to trade him for expirings, and then try to move those expiring contracts, but we're doing this quick and easy).  Savings:  $20.46 million.

Total savings:  $47.43 million

That puts us under the luxury tax.  Easy (and there are hundreds of ways you could do this), but not preferable for fans.

So all we need to do is hope the Clippers value Jrue more than Norman Powel who was a 20ppg scorer for them last year despite the fact that Jrue's contract is probably regarded as negative value. And also hope taht Norman Powell is a player Atlanta would want and even if they do want him are okay just adding 21 million to their team payroll. Then after that Waive a guy who will still count as 10 million on your books for three years in years where the C's will likely be deep in the tax again.

Could all that happen? Yes, it's all within the rules. I'd be shocked if the Clippers traded a 20ppg player on an expiring for Jrue Holiday and his contract. Powell is too important to their offense. I'd be even more shocked if the C's waived Porzingis. They don't want that money on the books for the next three years.

[Roy H.]

Especially for a team like boston which has a couple of finite options and has terrible penalties under the cap.  Even if they get out of the 2nd apron, there are still repeater tax issues to account for (which will only get worse if they do push hard when Tatum comes back with roughly the same roster). 

Teams need to not only get out of the aprons, but out of the tax entirely or it just compounds until they have to blow it all up.  This is a rebuild type blow up, because you keep Tatum.  You use his injury to get out of the tax and rebuild.

The Warriors reset by taking a gap year, doing the minimum necessary to get out of the tax, but keeping their core of Steph-Klay-Green. That makes sense for the Cs.

So what is the minimum needed to get Boston below first the 2nd Apron and secondly the luxury tax threshold? In order to avoid repeater taxes and reset that moving forward. Who would the team need to move? Who would they be allowed to keep?

It sounds like we have to move one of Jrue or Zinger to get below the 2nd Apron. So I am guessing we have to move both guys to get below the luxury tax threshold. That this would be the minimum necessary to get out of the tax.

So we keep the core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White and get out of the luxury tax range. Is that possible?

Can we keep Pritchard and Hauser as well?
Can we re-sign Horford or is he gone?

-------------------------------

Google says salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to be $154.6mil with the luxury tax $187.9mil. So we would need to be below the $187.9mil figure, right?

Core = Tatum, Jaylen, D White = $135.37 million
Pritchard and Hauser = $17.28mil
Total = $152.55 million

Then you have Scheiermann and the minimum contracts. I don't know what that will work out as. Somewhere in the $15-20mil range? Let's say $20mil. That is $172.5mil. There is still a chance they could re-sign Horford at that number.

Porzingis = $30.73mil
Jrue = $32.4mil

Hard to see them being able to keep a 4th star and get below the luxury tax. Maybe if you dump Pritchard and Hauser you could just about make the numbers work. It would be tight.

The short answer is basically yes, they could TECHNICALLY get below the tax level by trading both KP and Holiday. But to do so they'd need to trade both guys and have almost no salary coming back in return (maybe they could bring back like one 10-15 million dollar player) and that's very hard to do. Only one team in the NBA (the nets) has the room to just absorb a 30 million dollar salary.

getting below the 2nd apron is easier, its about 20 million dollars higher, so you only need to drop one of KP or Jrue. I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

I think that it's easily attainable, I'm just not sure fans would like the results much.

Its easy enough to move both guys, anybody can be moved if you attach assets. But it's very much NOT easy to move both guys without also bringing back money. Its not really a matter of weather fans like it or not, it's a matter of just mathematically there aren't a lot of ways to do it. There is literally only one NBA team who you won't have to salary match with, every other trade requires you taking back an amount of money somewhat similar to what you send out. The C's would have to trim something like 45 million dollars to get below the luxury tax line, and that is very hard to do if it doesn't involve somebody just leaving in free agency.

If you combine KP, Jrue, and Hauser, you get around $73M. So if the Celtics need to cut $45M, they can still take back around $28M in contracts.

Assume they can find a team to send Hauser, then they only need to turn $63M into $28M. If you waive and stretch KP (last resort), then they they would only need to turn Jrue?s $32M into $18M or less.

If you do a deal with Dallas, you keep Gafford at $14M and send off PJ to another team into an exception and you?ve done it. You?re below the tax.

So while it is not ideal to carry $10M/yr of dead money on the books for the next 3 years and it is also not ideal to turn 3 very good players into Gafford (while also losing Horford and Kornet), it is quite possible. That?s what Roy meant about being easily attainable, but that fans wouldn?t like it.

Yeah.  I mean, here's a simple plan that gets us below the tax:

Step one:  Trade Jrue to LAC.  We keep Kris Dunn; we reroute Norman Powell to ATL into their TPE.  Send ATL the #28 pick if necessary.  This saves $26.97 million.

Step two:  Waive and stretch KP.  (It makes more sense to trade him for expirings, and then try to move those expiring contracts, but we're doing this quick and easy).  Savings:  $20.46 million.

Total savings:  $47.43 million

That puts us under the luxury tax.  Easy (and there are hundreds of ways you could do this), but not preferable for fans.

So all we need to do is hope the Clippers value Jrue more than Norman Powel who was a 20ppg scorer for them last year despite the fact that Jrue's contract is probably regarded as negative value. And also hope taht Norman Powell is a player Atlanta would want and even if they do want him are okay just adding 21 million to their team payroll. Then after that Waive a guy who will still count as 10 million on your books for three years in years where the C's will likely be deep in the tax again.

Could all that happen? Yes. Its extremely unlikely.

Lol.  You just argued that Norman Powell is better than Jrue Holiday, but that Atlanta wouldn't want him for free.  Talk about having it both ways.

But as I said, this is a simple option, one of hundreds. 

[keevsnick]

Especially for a team like boston which has a couple of finite options and has terrible penalties under the cap.  Even if they get out of the 2nd apron, there are still repeater tax issues to account for (which will only get worse if they do push hard when Tatum comes back with roughly the same roster). 

Teams need to not only get out of the aprons, but out of the tax entirely or it just compounds until they have to blow it all up.  This is a rebuild type blow up, because you keep Tatum.  You use his injury to get out of the tax and rebuild.

The Warriors reset by taking a gap year, doing the minimum necessary to get out of the tax, but keeping their core of Steph-Klay-Green. That makes sense for the Cs.

So what is the minimum needed to get Boston below first the 2nd Apron and secondly the luxury tax threshold? In order to avoid repeater taxes and reset that moving forward. Who would the team need to move? Who would they be allowed to keep?

It sounds like we have to move one of Jrue or Zinger to get below the 2nd Apron. So I am guessing we have to move both guys to get below the luxury tax threshold. That this would be the minimum necessary to get out of the tax.

So we keep the core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White and get out of the luxury tax range. Is that possible?

Can we keep Pritchard and Hauser as well?
Can we re-sign Horford or is he gone?

-------------------------------

Google says salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to be $154.6mil with the luxury tax $187.9mil. So we would need to be below the $187.9mil figure, right?

Core = Tatum, Jaylen, D White = $135.37 million
Pritchard and Hauser = $17.28mil
Total = $152.55 million

Then you have Scheiermann and the minimum contracts. I don't know what that will work out as. Somewhere in the $15-20mil range? Let's say $20mil. That is $172.5mil. There is still a chance they could re-sign Horford at that number.

Porzingis = $30.73mil
Jrue = $32.4mil

Hard to see them being able to keep a 4th star and get below the luxury tax. Maybe if you dump Pritchard and Hauser you could just about make the numbers work. It would be tight.

The short answer is basically yes, they could TECHNICALLY get below the tax level by trading both KP and Holiday. But to do so they'd need to trade both guys and have almost no salary coming back in return (maybe they could bring back like one 10-15 million dollar player) and that's very hard to do. Only one team in the NBA (the nets) has the room to just absorb a 30 million dollar salary.

getting below the 2nd apron is easier, its about 20 million dollars higher, so you only need to drop one of KP or Jrue. I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

I think that it's easily attainable, I'm just not sure fans would like the results much.

Its easy enough to move both guys, anybody can be moved if you attach assets. But it's very much NOT easy to move both guys without also bringing back money. Its not really a matter of weather fans like it or not, it's a matter of just mathematically there aren't a lot of ways to do it. There is literally only one NBA team who you won't have to salary match with, every other trade requires you taking back an amount of money somewhat similar to what you send out. The C's would have to trim something like 45 million dollars to get below the luxury tax line, and that is very hard to do if it doesn't involve somebody just leaving in free agency.

If you combine KP, Jrue, and Hauser, you get around $73M. So if the Celtics need to cut $45M, they can still take back around $28M in contracts.

Assume they can find a team to send Hauser, then they only need to turn $63M into $28M. If you waive and stretch KP (last resort), then they they would only need to turn Jrue?s $32M into $18M or less.

If you do a deal with Dallas, you keep Gafford at $14M and send off PJ to another team into an exception and you?ve done it. You?re below the tax.

So while it is not ideal to carry $10M/yr of dead money on the books for the next 3 years and it is also not ideal to turn 3 very good players into Gafford (while also losing Horford and Kornet), it is quite possible. That?s what Roy meant about being easily attainable, but that fans wouldn?t like it.

Yeah.  I mean, here's a simple plan that gets us below the tax:

Step one:  Trade Jrue to LAC.  We keep Kris Dunn; we reroute Norman Powell to ATL into their TPE.  Send ATL the #28 pick if necessary.  This saves $26.97 million.

Step two:  Waive and stretch KP.  (It makes more sense to trade him for expirings, and then try to move those expiring contracts, but we're doing this quick and easy).  Savings:  $20.46 million.

Total savings:  $47.43 million

That puts us under the luxury tax.  Easy (and there are hundreds of ways you could do this), but not preferable for fans.

So all we need to do is hope the Clippers value Jrue more than Norman Powel who was a 20ppg scorer for them last year despite the fact that Jrue's contract is probably regarded as negative value. And also hope taht Norman Powell is a player Atlanta would want and even if they do want him are okay just adding 21 million to their team payroll. Then after that Waive a guy who will still count as 10 million on your books for three years in years where the C's will likely be deep in the tax again.

Could all that happen? Yes. Its extremely unlikely.

Lol.  You just argued that Norman Powell is better than Jrue Holiday, but that Atlanta wouldn't want him for free.  Talk about having it both ways.

But as I said, this is a simple option, one of hundreds.

I think if you tried to give Jrue Holiday to Atlanta they probably wouldn't just take him, Thye'd want draft picks to take on the contract. So its not really a stretch to say Norman is better than Holliday but Atlanta wouldn't take him.

But that aside, I do think Atlanta would take Norman Powell for free, he's an expiring so why not? I'm not certain but I' give you that more likely than not Atlanta would take him probably even without the pick involved. I just think there's something like a 0% Chance LAC does that deal.

I too can make hundreds of trades that have no chance of happening that would get the C's below the luxury tax. Its even possible the C's find one that they like, but saying it's easy to simply dump 45 million is just objectively not true.

[keevsnick]

Especially for a team like boston which has a couple of finite options and has terrible penalties under the cap.  Even if they get out of the 2nd apron, there are still repeater tax issues to account for (which will only get worse if they do push hard when Tatum comes back with roughly the same roster). 

Teams need to not only get out of the aprons, but out of the tax entirely or it just compounds until they have to blow it all up.  This is a rebuild type blow up, because you keep Tatum.  You use his injury to get out of the tax and rebuild.

The Warriors reset by taking a gap year, doing the minimum necessary to get out of the tax, but keeping their core of Steph-Klay-Green. That makes sense for the Cs.

So what is the minimum needed to get Boston below first the 2nd Apron and secondly the luxury tax threshold? In order to avoid repeater taxes and reset that moving forward. Who would the team need to move? Who would they be allowed to keep?

It sounds like we have to move one of Jrue or Zinger to get below the 2nd Apron. So I am guessing we have to move both guys to get below the luxury tax threshold. That this would be the minimum necessary to get out of the tax.

So we keep the core of Tatum, Jaylen, D White and get out of the luxury tax range. Is that possible?

Can we keep Pritchard and Hauser as well?
Can we re-sign Horford or is he gone?

-------------------------------

Google says salary cap in 2025-26 is expected to be $154.6mil with the luxury tax $187.9mil. So we would need to be below the $187.9mil figure, right?

Core = Tatum, Jaylen, D White = $135.37 million
Pritchard and Hauser = $17.28mil
Total = $152.55 million

Then you have Scheiermann and the minimum contracts. I don't know what that will work out as. Somewhere in the $15-20mil range? Let's say $20mil. That is $172.5mil. There is still a chance they could re-sign Horford at that number.

Porzingis = $30.73mil
Jrue = $32.4mil

Hard to see them being able to keep a 4th star and get below the luxury tax. Maybe if you dump Pritchard and Hauser you could just about make the numbers work. It would be tight.

The short answer is basically yes, they could TECHNICALLY get below the tax level by trading both KP and Holiday. But to do so they'd need to trade both guys and have almost no salary coming back in return (maybe they could bring back like one 10-15 million dollar player) and that's very hard to do. Only one team in the NBA (the nets) has the room to just absorb a 30 million dollar salary.

getting below the 2nd apron is easier, its about 20 million dollars higher, so you only need to drop one of KP or Jrue. I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

I think that it's easily attainable, I'm just not sure fans would like the results much.

Its easy enough to move both guys, anybody can be moved if you attach assets. But it's very much NOT easy to move both guys without also bringing back money. Its not really a matter of weather fans like it or not, it's a matter of just mathematically there aren't a lot of ways to do it. There is literally only one NBA team who you won't have to salary match with, every other trade requires you taking back an amount of money somewhat similar to what you send out. The C's would have to trim something like 45 million dollars to get below the luxury tax line, and that is very hard to do if it doesn't involve somebody just leaving in free agency.

If you combine KP, Jrue, and Hauser, you get around $73M. So if the Celtics need to cut $45M, they can still take back around $28M in contracts.

Assume they can find a team to send Hauser, then they only need to turn $63M into $28M. If you waive and stretch KP (last resort), then they they would only need to turn Jrue?s $32M into $18M or less.

If you do a deal with Dallas, you keep Gafford at $14M and send off PJ to another team into an exception and you?ve done it. You?re below the tax.

So while it is not ideal to carry $10M/yr of dead money on the books for the next 3 years and it is also not ideal to turn 3 very good players into Gafford (while also losing Horford and Kornet), it is quite possible. That?s what Roy meant about being easily attainable, but that fans wouldn?t like it.

Dumping Hauser would make it easier, but that wasn't the question, the question was can you do it by trading KP and Holiday. And moving 62 million for 17 million is just not easy.

Even in the example you provide where they trade Hauser, its still very unlikely to happen. I'd be very surprised if Dallas was willing to do Gafford and Washington both expiring to take on holiday. My guess if Holiday is viewed as negative value, while both Gafford and Washington are positive. And again, the premise of the question is can you do it TRADING both, because sure stretching KP makes it easier, but they aren't going to stretch KP, they'd have to be insane to just stick 10 million dollars on their books for the next three years.

The problem with all these deals is the same: If you assume Holiday is a positive contract then the C's can probably get back positive value smaller contracts that they can break up and dump. that makes things a lot easier. But I'd guess Holiday is not viewed as a positive asset league wide.

[Roy H.]

I too can make hundreds of trades that have no chance of happening that would get the C's below the luxury tax. Its even possible the C's find one that they like, but saying it's easy to simply dump 45 million is just objectively not true.

Here is what you claimed:

I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

Feel free to back that statement up.  I think it's silly. 

And, I think that ownership is going to demand it, and Brad is going to comply amid a bunch of fan complaining that the talent has been downgraded.

[Vermont Green]

I don't see BOS getting under the tax for the 2025-26 season.  I don't believe that will be the goal, even in a gap year, but I do agree that with draconian measures, they could get there.

GSW
In:  Holiday (from BOS)    Out:  Kuminga (S&T to WAS), Hield (to BOS)

BOS
In:  Hield (from GSW), Bey (from WAS)   Out: Holiday (to GSW)

WAS:
In:  Kuminga (S&T from GSW)   Out:  Bey (to BOS)

If you do this trade (which I think works and is somewhat realistic), and replace Horford, Hauser, and Kornet with minimum contracts, that is still about $20M over the tax level but very close to the 2nd apron threshold.

I think you could do all of the above, still be competitive in 2026-27, and be in position to be under the 2nd apron for 2026-27.  But to get under the tax, what you have to give up (Porzingis or Brown) will impact your core well beyond 2025-26.  And if you stretch a contract, you create dead cap on top of that.  We'll see I guess, but I don't see BOS getting under the Tax.

[keevsnick]

I too can make hundreds of trades that have no chance of happening that would get the C's below the luxury tax. Its even possible the C's find one that they like, but saying it's easy to simply dump 45 million is just objectively not true.

Here is what you claimed:

I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

Feel free to back that statement up.  I think it's silly. 

And, I think that ownership is going to demand it, and Brad is going to comply amid a bunch of fan complaining that the talent has been downgraded.

I stand by the statement, but i will admit I am operating on the theory that the front office doesn't want to destroy the Celtics future.  Its always possible to move money, if the C's call up Brk and offer their 26' and 31' firsts I bet Brooklyn would just take Holiday. C's could then wave Porzingis and bam, you're done. I think the front office / ownership is going to view that as unacceptable outlay of assets. Why cripple yourself to get under the tax when you can just significantly cut your spending this year by trading holiday, then let Kristaps expire and get under the tax next year? Paying a little more this year to be better in the long term seems like an easy choice to me.

Or too put it more simply: I just don't believe there's going to be a "get under the tax at ALL COSTS" directive" and since I expect the costs to do so would be high I don't think it will happen. I do expect them to cut costs significantly, under the 2nd apron, but unless a truly greta delas comes long where the swindle some team and somehow get better while also getting cheaper I expect they'll be a tax team.

[Roy H.]

I too can make hundreds of trades that have no chance of happening that would get the C's below the luxury tax. Its even possible the C's find one that they like, but saying it's easy to simply dump 45 million is just objectively not true.

Here is what you claimed:

I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

Feel free to back that statement up.  I think it's silly. 

And, I think that ownership is going to demand it, and Brad is going to comply amid a bunch of fan complaining that the talent has been downgraded.

I stand by the statement, but i will admit I am operating on the theory that the front office doesn't want to destroy the Celtics future.  Its always possible to move money, if the C's call up Brk and offer their 26' and 31' firsts I bet Brooklyn would just take Holiday. C's could then wave Porzingis and bam, you're done. I think the front office / ownership is going to view that as unacceptable outlay of assets. Why cripple yourself to get under the tax when you can just significantly cut your spending this year by trading holiday, then let Kristaps expire and get under the tax next year? Paying a little more this year to be better in the long term seems like an easy choice to me.

Or too put it more simply: I just don't believe there's going to be a "get under the tax at ALL COSTS" directive" and since I expect the costs to do so would be high I don't think it will happen. I do expect them to cut costs significantly, under the 2nd apron, but unless a truly greta delas comes long where the swindle some team and somehow get better while also getting cheaper I expect they'll be a tax team.

I'm not sure you're appreciating how valuable that getting out from under the repeater tax is for the team.

[keevsnick]

I too can make hundreds of trades that have no chance of happening that would get the C's below the luxury tax. Its even possible the C's find one that they like, but saying it's easy to simply dump 45 million is just objectively not true.

Here is what you claimed:

I think getting below the luxury tax is probably not attainable this offseason.

Feel free to back that statement up.  I think it's silly. 

And, I think that ownership is going to demand it, and Brad is going to comply amid a bunch of fan complaining that the talent has been downgraded.

I stand by the statement, but i will admit I am operating on the theory that the front office doesn't want to destroy the Celtics future.  Its always possible to move money, if the C's call up Brk and offer their 26' and 31' firsts I bet Brooklyn would just take Holiday. C's could then wave Porzingis and bam, you're done. I think the front office / ownership is going to view that as unacceptable outlay of assets. Why cripple yourself to get under the tax when you can just significantly cut your spending this year by trading holiday, then let Kristaps expire and get under the tax next year? Paying a little more this year to be better in the long term seems like an easy choice to me.

Or too put it more simply: I just don't believe there's going to be a "get under the tax at ALL COSTS" directive" and since I expect the costs to do so would be high I don't think it will happen. I do expect them to cut costs significantly, under the 2nd apron, but unless a truly greta delas comes long where the swindle some team and somehow get better while also getting cheaper I expect they'll be a tax team.

I'm not sure you're appreciating how valuable that getting out from under the repeater tax is for the team.

Maybe, but the difference between being a repeater tax vs a non-repeater tax team is a lot smaller if you're under the 2nd apron vs being 25 million over it.

Lets say you treat 15 million over the tax (just below the 2nd apron) as a defacto hard cap moving forward. A repeater tax team would pay about 30 million MORE in tax than a non repeater. Thats a lot, but its not crippling.

To get out of the repeater they'd have to get below next year and stay below in 26-27, thus essentially throwing away another year of Tatum and Browns prime. One year below just pushes it back a year. So the question you have to ask is it worth it handicapping yourself below the luxury tax line in 25-26 and 26-27 AND giving up picks/talent thus summer to do so all you can save 30 million in 27-28 and 28-29? And that's not to mention the fact that if you do trade off Jrue/KP for nothing you hollow yourself out of mid-sized contracts you can use for future trades.

To put it another way: Being a repeater tax team right up to the 2nd apron will cost about 70 million in tax going forward. The Celtics were willing to pay 52 million in tax this year. I think getting down below the 2nd apron makes the finances manageable enough going forward that you don't have to cripple the team's asset base going forward.

As a side note: The reason I think there's 0% chance they waive KP is because it locks money on your books. Sure, waving him might get you under the tax in 25-26, but it locks 10 million more on your books in 26-27 and 27-28, money that can't be moved. If your goal is to be reset the repeater tax having 10 million you can't move in 26-27 makes that a lot harder. If your goal is to be ramp back up your tax bill to compete then having 10 million dollars locked on your books as a repeater tax team is a killer. For a team that wants to good and will be expensive it just seems like a bad idea.

[jambr380]

Fwiw, I don't think they just waive KP either, I was just using it as an easy way to get under the tax in this exercise. More likely, they trade his contract for a combination of players making $24-25M, find a team to dump one or more of those contracts, and then perhaps waive and stretch one of those contracts.

No, I don't have any specific examples, but say they trade KP for Player A making $12M, Player B making $6M and Player C making $6M. They could likely re-route Player C to another team for no more than a 2nd round pick (like we did with Springer), keep player B, and then waive and stretch Player A.

Between Player B and Player A's waive and stretch, they would still be spending $10M next season, but they would have a tangible player (instead of just KP's money) and would only be on the hook for $4M - not $10M - in each of the two seasons after next.

[keevsnick]

Fwiw, I don't think they just waive KP either, I was just using it as an easy way to get under the tax in this exercise. More likely, they trade his contract for a combination of players making $24-25M, find a team to dump one or more of those contracts, and then perhaps waive and stretch one of those contracts.

No, I don't have any specific examples, but say they trade KP for Player A making $12M, Player B making $6M and Player C making $6M. They could likely re-route Player C to another team for no more than a 2nd round pick (like we did with Springer), keep player B, and then waive and stretch Player A.

Between Player B and Player A's waive and stretch, they would still be spending $10M next season, but they would have a tangible player (instead of just KP's money) and would only be on the hook for $4M - not $10M - in each of the two seasons after next.

My guess is they'll do a version of that, but without the stretch. Can't see them sticking immovable money on their roster.

For example: Trade Jrue to Clipper for Bogdanovic, Eubanks, Dunn. That saves 6.3 million right away. then you flip Dunn/Eubanks who are both expiring's to some team along with a second rounder to drop their money. That saves another 10.1 million. Thats 16.4 million saved. You then see how Bogdanovic plays next year, maybe he can give you some scoring, but if not he has a team option that they can either decline to get off the money or accept to make an expiring contract thats tardeable next summer.

Shaving 16.4 million gets you close enough to getting under the 2nd apron that you can either get there by trading Hauser into someone's MLE to replenish your draft stock or keep him and get there by trading KP for like 5-10 million in savings.

[Moranis]

The set of trades I proposed yielded the roster below.  The salary of that team is ~186.157 million which while above the cap, is below the projected luxury tax line. And it would be fairly easy to drop that down even further and actually get below the cap next year if desired.  Several of those contracts expire after next season, so cap room will be had by summer of 2027 regardless.  Trading someone like Vassell or Brooks during the season for an expiring lower salary (and a draft pick) could maybe even get the team under the cap for 2026, or would certainly could free up a max level spot for 2027.

PG - Sheppard, Pritchard
SG - Vassell, Podz, Fontecchio
SF - Brooks, Hield, Scheireman
PF - Smith, Eason
C - Stewart, Tillman
10 + 28 + Tatum on IR + 36 (Stash or 2way)
dump Walsh or trade 28 for a future pick

The team then tanks next year and adds its own lottery pick to Sheppard and 10, and infuses the team with young high-level talent (not to mention Podz, Smith).  Tatum then comes back and you still have some decent players around him, but have the young pieces needed to build a new championship core or trade for one (there were also other future 1st rounders allowing for a 1st heavy trade if one became available). 

Obviously different trade packages could yield a similar result, but I just don't see this current team ever competing again with the same core.  The age, health, and most importantly money just don't make it feasible in my view.  Had Tatum not gotten hurt, it is a different discussion, but I believe his injury has ended this run.

[Who]

The set of trades I proposed yielded the roster below.  The salary of that team is ~186.157 million which while above the cap, is below the projected luxury tax line. And it would be fairly easy to drop that down even further and actually get below the cap next year if desired.  Several of those contracts expire after next season, so cap room will be had by summer of 2027 regardless.  Trading someone like Vassell or Brooks during the season for an expiring lower salary (and a draft pick) could maybe even get the team under the cap for 2026, or would certainly could free up a max level spot for 2027.

PG - Sheppard, Pritchard
SG - Vassell, Podz, Fontecchio
SF - Brooks, Hield, Scheireman
PF - Smith, Eason
C - Stewart, Tillman
10 + 28 + Tatum on IR + 36 (Stash or 2way)
dump Walsh or trade 28 for a future pick

The team then tanks next year and adds its own lottery pick to Sheppard and 10, and infuses the team with young high-level talent (not to mention Podz, Smith).  Tatum then comes back and you still have some decent players around him, but have the young pieces needed to build a new championship core or trade for one (there were also other future 1st rounders allowing for a 1st heavy trade if one became available). 

Obviously different trade packages could yield a similar result, but I just don't see this current team ever competing again with the same core.  The age, health, and most importantly money just don't make it feasible in my view.  Had Tatum not gotten hurt, it is a different discussion, but I believe his injury has ended this run.

What are your expectations for Reed Sheppard? How good do you expect him to be?

[tazzmaniac]

Trade 3 with San Antonio
Holiday for Vassell

Jrue for Devin Vassell is a trade that interests me. Much younger player. Quality starting SG. Well rounded skill-set. Strengths are not high but weaknesses are few.

The question is why would the Spurs do that deal.  They're a young team who finished 13th in the West.  Jrue isn't going to move the needle for them.  Vassell is 10 years younger, on a better contract and as productive.   Going to have to give up at least a 1st assuming Spurs would even consider it. 

[tazzmaniac]

This one makes me cringe a bit, but ...

Celtics receive: Walker, McCain, 3rd overall pick
Sixers receive: Holiday, Whitehead, 28th overall pick
Nets receive: Drummond, Gordon, Oubre, Butler, 32nd overall pick from the Celtics

Why for the Celtics? Getting a prospect like McCain + 3rd overall pick would be a great reset for the team. Drummond, Oubre, and Gordon likely need to be diverted to a third team with the 32nd overall pick to save more cap space.

Why for the Nets? They use their space to absorb contracts and buyout the vets they don't want. They get a pick for their trouble (with as many picks as the Nets have this year, they may prefer a future pick instead, but the 32nd is a good stand-in for now).

Why for the Sixers? They are in win-now mode and need a fourth player that can help win games in the playoffs. Holiday is one of the best available right now. It's a lot to pay, but it gives you a guy that is a perfect compliment to Maxey-George-Embiid. It improves your chances to contend for the next 1-2 years with Embiid. They could resign Yabu and Grimes and still have a decent bench with Bona and Council.

I realize that this is the ceiling for a return for Holiday, and is unlikely for the Celtics. However, if you look at the Sixers roster, there just aren't many ways to improve it. George's contract is so big that he is unlikely to be traded and I doubt they would be willing to trade Maxey. A trade like the one above can only net the Sixers a salary in Holiday's range (other options include Jerami Grant, Tyler Herro, Jordan Poole, CJ McCullom, Andrew Wiggins, Michael Porter Jr.). I'd argue Holliday is probably the best available in that salary range for a team trying to win the championship.

The alternate version of this has McCain staying with the Sixers, Council going to the Celtics, and Edwards also going to the Nets. That may be more realistic.

Or, an alternate alternate version would have McCain still going to the Cs, the Nets getting the 3rd pick, the Cs getting the 8th, and the Sixers getting the 19th and 26th from the Nets.

Cringe because it is so ridiculous and so stilted to the Celtics which your alternatives clearly call out.  I do think Jrue would help the Sixers. But as Roy stated, no one is giving up the #3 pick for Jrue and then you add McCain onto it.  Before he got injured last season, McCain was performing as one of the top rookies.  Then you have the Nets absorbing nearly 20M in salary for just a 2nd round pick.  I understand it is just one year but that would require a future protected 1st.  The Nets already have 4 1sts and the #36 in this draft so they don't need another pick this year.