As I think about next season's roster, to me it is more about who stays and who goes. Trying to guess who goes and for what deal is really hard. There are only a few options in terms who might go, but there are a million options as to how they would go (and none of them good options from reading through these ideas).
Keep the Core, Trade Hauser or other lesser pieces: I would not be shocked if this is how it ended up. Hauser could be traded for a pick or something. Teams can use the MLE for trades now. There would likely be some possibilities. This does not get us under the second apron though, at least not for 2025-26.
Trade Holiday: I see this as the most likely. There are all kinds of ideas, none of them all that great in my view. Even with trading Holiday, I think it will still be tough to get under the 2nd apron for 2025-26. More likely trading Holiday will be about getting under for 2026-27 and beyond. And a Holiday trade may be more at the deadline than in the off season.
Trade Brown: I don't think this is likely, but also not entirely off the table. There are a few teams that could make this work so that we get young players and/or picks back and we get under the 2nd apron. If Brown is traded, I see that happening in the off season.
I believe it is true that even if we are over the 2nd apron in 2025-26, that it doesn't count as repeating. My understanding is that 2024-25 is kind of a grace period season and doesn't count towards repeating penalties. So if we are over for 2025-26, we pay a ton of tax, but the other penalties do not kick in. But then we would absolutely need to be under in 2026-27.
We could wait until 2026-27 (option 1 above), but then there may be fewer options to get under for 2026-27 if Holiday is still on the books (for example). Or we keep Holiday and just let Porzingis go (unless he resigns for the min). I think it is more strategic to trade Holiday now and be in a position to keep Porzingis in 2026-27.
Horford is another variable. In injury parlance, I would say he is questionable for 2025-26 doubtful for 2026-27. There are plenty of teams that could use Al Horford for one season.