The 3-Point Shot Epidemic

[Redz]

It's worse than ever, and the Celtics are at the forefront of pushing the envelope on it.  I know I'm getting old, but I just don't think it's good for the quality of the game.  I get it that the math works, and the Celtics proved that.  It's just silly when games are having 100+ 3's heaved up and teams are bricking them left and right. 

Without changing fundamental shots made values I don't think there are whole lot of ways to discourage teams from taking so many.

Some impractical ideas of mine.

- Set a cap on the number of 3 attempts a team can take per game (with acceptions for last set time amount of the game maybe?)

- Only count 3's when a team is losing

And more radical:

- let the home team designate an area for 3's for their team for a season (even disallowing them completely).  Center it around your team's strengths and add a potential home court uniqueness like in MLB

- experiment with outlawing the 3 completely for the NBA Cup or maybe start out with some preseason games and see how that works

[Roy H.]

I think one answer is simply to widen the court and move the line back.  At some point, shooting percentages become low enough that it no longer makes sense to take 60% of your shots from 3PT. 

[Goldstar88]

It's worse than ever, and the Celtics are at the forefront of pushing the envelope on it.  I know I'm getting old, but I just don't think it's good for the quality of the game.  I get it that the math works, and the Celtics proved that.  It's just silly when games are having 100+ 3's heaved up and teams are bricking them left and right. 

Without changing fundamental shots made values I don't think there are whole lot of ways to discourage teams from taking so many.

Some impractical ideas of mine.

- Set a cap on the number of 3 attempts a team can take per game (with acceptions for last set time amount of the game maybe?)

- Only count 3's when a team is losing

And more radical:

- let the home team designate an area for 3's for their team for a season (even disallowing them completely).  Center it around your team's strengths and add a potential home court uniqueness like in MLB

- experiment with outlawing the 3 completely for the NBA Cup or maybe start out with some preseason games and see how that works

Funny, I was just thinking about this the other day. I came to the above conclusion as well. The league should make a new rule, capping the 3pt attempts at either 45 or 50 per game. All this 3pt shooting is ruining the game.

[Phantom255x]

There's no way they'll cap the amount of 3s taken lol. Could you imagine being down 15+ in the postseason, in the 4th quarter, and you can't take any more 3s due to the rules 

Maybe I'm just in the minority but I'm confused why this wasn't an issue back when Golden State and even the D'Antoni + Harden Rockets were doing this and "revolutionizing" the game

If anything, maybe move back the 3 point line a little or eliminate corner 3s?

[Redz]

There's no way they'll cap the amount of 3s taken lol. Could you imagine being down 15+ in the postseason, in the 4th quarter, and you can't take any more 3s due to the rules 

Maybe I'm just in the minority but I'm confused why this wasn't an issue back when Golden State and even the D'Antoni + Harden Rockets were doing this and "revolutionizing" the game

If anything, maybe move back the 3 point line a little or eliminate corner 3s?

I think that was more of an anomaly then.  The whole league does it now, and more so.

[hwangjini_1]

There's no way they'll cap the amount of 3s taken lol. Could you imagine being down 15+ in the postseason, in the 4th quarter, and you can't take any more 3s due to the rules 

Maybe I'm just in the minority but I'm confused why this wasn't an issue back when Golden State and even the D'Antoni + Harden Rockets were doing this and "revolutionizing" the game

If anything, maybe move back the 3 point line a little or eliminate corner 3s?

pritchard double dares the league to do this. 

[Goldstar88]

I think caping the 3pt is less gimmicky than moving the 3pt line. It would force teams to use more strategy in terms of when to take 3?s. If we are going to move the 3pt line, might as well raise the hoop up to 12 feet at the same time. No more stand still dunks from Wemby. 

[Indocelts]

I like the idea of setting a cap but only for 3 quarters. Team can shoot at will in the 4th quarter.

I hate seeing players going 1 for 10 in a game. Efficient shooting is the beauty of this game.

[Neurotic Guy]

It will work its way out. Most teams aren?t built to win by the three.  Celtics also won?t win by the three unless they play defense.  I think (hope) come playoff time the Cs will return to their 23-24 three-point % and they?ll reduce their three volume some extent, and, will play championship level defense.  It?ll be the D more the 3 that gets them there, if they get there.

[jpotter33]

It will work its way out. Most teams aren?t built to win by the three.  Celtics also won?t win by the three unless they play defense.  I think (hope) come playoff time the Cs will return to their 23-24 three-point % and they?ll reduce their three volume some extent, and, will play championship level defense.  It?ll be the D more the 3 that gets them there, if they get there.

Agreed. As much as I hate our style of play sometimes, I think this is largely a fad that will work itself out eventually. I worry more about over-correcting/involvement by the league than the threes - e.g. the All-Star game constant changes fiasco. Two other things:

1) While a legitimate phenomenon/issue, I think the three point shot has become the scapegoat of the larger ratings/face of the NBA issues and made it a bigger deal than it is.

2) The narrative I think is a bit off. Three point volume itself is not the problem, but rather how those threes are being taken. For example, last year?s Celtics (but not necessarily this year?s team) and this year?s Cavs are both teams who utilize a ton of ball movement and high screens to get good quality threes, hence one of the reasons that both teams were still so efficient at taking a high volume of threes. The problem is more when teams are taking a ton of bad quality threes.

[mef730]

So I guess people don?t like the idea of keeping the 3 point line where it is and drawing a second arc and introducing 4-pointers? We could call it the ?Walker Line.?

[Vermont Green]

I think one answer is simply to widen the court and move the line back.  At some point, shooting percentages become low enough that it no longer makes sense to take 60% of your shots from 3PT.

Agree completely.  No need to overthink this.  Widening the court would not only allow the 3-point line to be extended in the corners, but would also generally allow more player and ball movement, which I think the game would benefit from.  Make the defense cover more real estate.  Allow for more cutting and passing lanes out of the corners.  It would pull defenders out further because they would have to cover the extended corner area, opening up things for cutting, dribble penetration, post ups, and so on.

You could test this in the all star game to start.  They have been looking for ways to make the all star game more interesting for years.  I wouldn't mind seeing a 4-point line in the all star game, but definitely not in regular games.

[Kernewek]

It will work its way out. Most teams aren?t built to win by the three.  Celtics also won?t win by the three unless they play defense.  I think (hope) come playoff time the Cs will return to their 23-24 three-point % and they?ll reduce their three volume some extent, and, will play championship level defense.  It?ll be the D more the 3 that gets them there, if they get there.

Agreed. As much as I hate our style of play sometimes, I think this is largely a fad that will work itself out eventually. I worry more about over-correcting/involvement by the league than the threes - e.g. the All-Star game constant changes fiasco. Two other things:

1) While a legitimate phenomenon/issue, I think the three point shot has become the scapegoat of the larger ratings/face of the NBA issues and made it a bigger deal than it is.

2) The narrative I think is a bit off. Three point volume itself is not the problem, but rather how those threes are being taken. For example, last year?s Celtics (but not necessarily this year?s team) and this year?s Cavs are both teams who utilize a ton of ball movement and high screens to get good quality threes, hence one of the reasons that both teams were still so efficient at taking a high volume of threes. The problem is more when teams are taking a ton of bad quality threes.

Correct on both fronts - I would also add that what the average person thinks of as a low-quality three-point-attempt and what the various coaching staffs around the league think of as a low-quality three-point-attempt are not the same.

[Roy H.]

It's interesting that there seems to be no strong correlation between 3PAs and ORtg.

Top 10 teams in 3PAs/100 possessions.  League ranks for ORtg in parentheses. 

1. Celtics (3)
2. Hornets (28)
3. Bulls (17)
4. Warriors (19)
5.  Twolves (21)
6. Nets (22)
7. Cavaliers (1)
8. Spurs (16)
9. Heat (11)
10. Thunder (7)

Bottom 10 teams in 3PAs/100 possessions.  League ranks for ORtg in parentheses. 

1.  Nuggets (4th)
2. Raptors (24)
3. Lakers (12)
4. Pacers (10)
5. Pelicans (28)
6. Clippers (23)
7. Hawks (14)
8. Kings (8 )
9. Mavericks (5)
10. Rockets (15)

[Kernewek]

It's interesting that there seems to be no strong correlation between 3PAs and ORtg.

Top 10 teams in 3PAs/100 possessions.  League ranks for ORtg in parentheses. 

1. Celtics (3)
2. Hornets (28)
3. Bulls (17)
4. Warriors (19)
5.  Twolves (21)
6. Nets (22)
7. Cavaliers (1)
8. Spurs (16)
9. Heat (11)
10. Thunder (7)

Bottom 10 teams in 3PAs/100 possessions.  League ranks for ORtg in parentheses. 

1.  Nuggets (4th)
2. Raptors (24)
3. Lakers (12)
4. Pacers (10)
5. Pelicans (28)
6. Clippers (23)
7. Hawks (14)
8. Kings (8 )
9. Mavericks (5)
10. Rockets (15)

I think this makes sense to me - all else being equal, you're going to shoot more threes, but if your best players aren't best served by this plan (Denver is the obvious example here), you'd be foolish to go for it to the same degree.

It might be more instructive to look at the season-on-season changes in 3PA and overall record. Bad teams are going to try to emulate what works for the best teams (see Charlotte, Chicago), but that doesn't mean their strategy around three-pointers is the reason they're losing games.

1. Celtics   +7.9,  Rank 2 EC
2. Hornets   +8.1,  Rank 14 EC
3. Bulls   +12, Rank 10  EC
4. Warriors +2.4, Rank 10 WC
5.  Twolves +7.3, Rank 8 WC
6. Nets   +2.6, Rank 12 EC
7. Cavaliers +3.5,  Rank 1 EC
8. Spurs   +3.1,  Rank 9 WC
9. Heat   +4.6, Rank 6 EC
10. Thunder +4.8, Rank 1 WC
   
1.  Nuggets  -0.4, Rank 4 WC
2. Raptors   +0.3, Rank 13 EC
3. Lakers   +2, Rank 7 WC
4. Pacers   -1.3, Rank 8 WC
5. Pelicans +1.1, Rank 15 WC
6. Clippers +1.1, Rank 6 WC
7. Hawks   -1.1, Rank 7 WC
8. Kings   -4.4, Rank 12 WC
9. Mavericks -4.1, Rank 5 WC
10. Rockets +0.1, Rank 3 WC

So, what stands out to me here? Not much that's interesting yet/isn't statistical noise:
 
The top two teams in both conferences are in the top 10 of 3PA attempted per season (they're not on your original list, but Memphis is currently the no. 10 in 3PA as of today [shooting about one more per game than last season], and they are currently the second seed in the West);

Most of the teams that aren't shooting many threes didn't shoot many threes last year, save Sactown and Dallas. We see an average of -0.67 in terms of season-on-season per game changes in the bottom 10 list;

For the top 10 teams it's an average increase of about 5-and-a-half threes per game, so the teams that are shooting more are shooting way more;

Charlotte and Chicago are clearly bad teams trying to shoot more threes to solve their issues (and failing), OKC is seeing success with their uptick in threes, as is Miami;

Of all the teams, only Dallas appears to have made the right call in shooting fewer shots from deep, in terms of their success on the floor so far through the season.