Tatum's shot.

[W8ting2McHale]

Tatum needs to watch film of younger Tatum to figure out what he's doing wrong now.

Another dismal shooting performance from Tatum. 1-5 today.Maybe he just needs time off? Looking at waves and not hoops.

[SparzWizard]

I remember he would sink those dangerous 3's back in 2021-2022, but now he's missing left and right. Is it his shooting form? Is it Jaylen Brown taking the spotlight? Is having three other All-Stars/All-NBA 2nd-team defense in the starting lineup affecting him?

[ozgod]

Before we overreact and start slitting wrists let's look at the actual data in eFG (I could do the same for 3FG% and FG% but picked eFG as a better all round metric). 10 game rolling average to smooth out peaks and troughs. This obviously excludes Team USA data but it gives us an insight into his performance over a long period of time:

Stats from https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/4268/trends

2023



2022



2021



He's been around the 55% eFG for a long time, at least 3 years. It deviates up and down here and there but there's not really evidence that his eFG is trending downwards over the long term.

[ozgod]

Here's the same rolling data for his 3FG:

2023



2022



2021



2020



2019 (shortened season)



2018



2017



OVERALL



So the 3FG tells a slightly different story - his 3FG has gone from mid 40% in his rookie season, where he was in the top 4$ in the league, to the 35%-37% mark the past 3 seasons, where last season he was in the 59th percentile in his position. His eFG has remained fairly constant around the mid-50% mark, so as his 3FG% has gone down and his FT% has remained constant his 2FG% has gone up, from below 50% to early 55%. So it suggests as he has gotten older and bulked up, he has lost a bit of his outside shooting touch but, as @celticinorlando said, he is more able to drive the ball and score inside. That's my totally unscientific assumption based on the little bit of data that we have. I don't think it's anything to slit wrists about however 

[scaryjerry]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

[Kernewek]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

[gift]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

[green_bballers13]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

It is wild to see how good the Celtics are. They destroyed their competition in the playoffs without playing their best. Imagine if there's another gear....

[trickybilly]

Here's the same rolling data for his 3FG:

2023



2022



2021



2020



2019 (shortened season)



2018



2017



OVERALL



So the 3FG tells a slightly different story - his 3FG has gone from mid 40% in his rookie season, where he was in the top 4$ in the league, to the 35%-37% mark the past 3 seasons, where last season he was in the 59th percentile in his position. His eFG has remained fairly constant around the mid-50% mark, so as his 3FG% has gone down and his FT% has remained constant his 2FG% has gone up, from below 50% to early 55%. So it suggests as he has gotten older and bulked up, he has lost a bit of his outside shooting touch but, as @celticinorlando said, he is more able to drive the ball and score inside. That's my totally unscientific assumption based on the little bit of data that we have. I don't think it's anything to slit wrists about however 

TP for this.

Also, a few other points.

1) He is being guarded MUCH more closely around the 3 pt line since his rookie year.

2) His assist numbers have been steadily increasing each year, with a new high average peak in this year's playoffs.

3) Over 90% of his 3 pts made in rookie year were assisted. This year? Less than 50%

So, in conclusion, Tatum just may not be a super gifted pull up 3 pt shooter, but he is smart enough to realize he needs to drive hard and dish.

The real test will be if he can increase his assist numbers, and now with Jaylen going supernova and everyone else being elite shooters, maybe he will have more catch and shoot opportunities next year.

[Vermont Green]

Great graphs above.  But the bottom line is that last season (2023/24) he shot 37.6% from 3, right (229 for 609)?  About average for his position (forward)?  It was less than this in the playoffs and that is what everyone is remembering.

I am going to make a bold prediction that Tatum will shoot better than this next season, maybe say 39% (it would require him to make only 9 more through the course of the season, 238 vs 229 made).  It is interesting that Booker only shot 36.4% last season on PHX.

[scaryjerry]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

It is wild to see how good the Celtics are. They destroyed their competition in the playoffs without playing their best. Imagine if there's another gear....

Listen I love that the Celtics won and I give them credit for playing awesome all year and beating the teams they had in front of them but everything broke their way, every team they played in the east was missing there best player for most of the series and then they miraculously drew the best possible matchup in the finals. Awesome!
But I feel like now we are just going to ignore and think we can just waltz through everyone again with Tatum playing poorly and porzingis injured. Maybe that?s true, maybe every last thing will go our way again.

[Goldstar88]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

It is wild to see how good the Celtics are. They destroyed their competition in the playoffs without playing their best. Imagine if there's another gear....

Listen I love that the Celtics won and I give them credit for playing awesome all year and beating the teams they had in front of them but everything broke their way, every team they played in the east was missing there best player for most of the series and then they miraculously drew the best possible matchup in the finals. Awesome!
But I feel like now we are just going to ignore and think we can just waltz through everyone again with Tatum playing poorly and porzingis injured. Maybe that?s true, maybe every last thing will go our way again.

The Mavs were the best team to come out of the West. They beat the thunder who was the top seed in their conference and then a gentleman sweep of the T-Wolves. Dallas had all of their players in the Finals and the C?s mopped the floor with them. Pretty funny that you are giving Boston credit for winning it all and then proceed to immediately discount the way that they won. Guess the C?s didn?t win good enough for some folks. 

[W8ting2McHale]

I like seeing Tatum taking some time off. Hopefully his shot gets a reset from whatever was happening in the playoffs and Olympics.

One of his travels took him to China with some other NBA players with shoe endorsements. Paolo Banchero is listed as 6? 10? and Tatum looks to be the same height in the photos. Now that he?s not 19 anymore, can they update his listed height of 6?8??

[tonydelk]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

It is wild to see how good the Celtics are. They destroyed their competition in the playoffs without playing their best. Imagine if there's another gear....

Listen I love that the Celtics won and I give them credit for playing awesome all year and beating the teams they had in front of them but everything broke their way, every team they played in the east was missing there best player for most of the series and then they miraculously drew the best possible matchup in the finals. Awesome!
But I feel like now we are just going to ignore and think we can just waltz through everyone again with Tatum playing poorly and porzingis injured. Maybe that?s true, maybe every last thing will go our way again.

The Mavs were the best team to come out of the West. They beat the thunder who was the top seed in their conference and then a gentleman sweep of the T-Wolves. Dallas had all of their players in the Finals and the C?s mopped the floor with them. Pretty funny that you are giving Boston credit for winning it all and then proceed to immediately discount the way that they won. Guess the C?s didn?t win good enough for some folks. 

Only a celtics fan will complain about winning a championship,  who flipping cares who was hurt.  It's not like the cs were fully healthy against any of their playoff opponents. 

[blink]

People that are saying there is no issue are just blind homers  that potentially aren?t even watching.
He?s been a dismal shooter since the playoffs started and there?s a clear ugly hitch to his jump shot that borderline looks like the hitch in Charles Barkley golf swing. It?s bad. But yeah nothing to see here I guess.

On a practical level, it doesn't matter because we just won a championship - and no one 'wins better' if they have a jump shot that looks more like Ray Allen than Shawn Marion.

If we win a ring with Tatum shooting poorly, we should be more than fine with Tatum shooting well. There is fundamentally no reason to get in a twist about it.

one of the reasons i'm bullish on another title. if we could somehow get a hot Tatum and/or a healthy KP in May and June...

It is wild to see how good the Celtics are. They destroyed their competition in the playoffs without playing their best. Imagine if there's another gear....

Listen I love that the Celtics won and I give them credit for playing awesome all year and beating the teams they had in front of them but everything broke their way, every team they played in the east was missing there best player for most of the series and then they miraculously drew the best possible matchup in the finals. Awesome!
But I feel like now we are just going to ignore and think we can just waltz through everyone again with Tatum playing poorly and porzingis injured. Maybe that?s true, maybe every last thing will go our way again.

The Mavs were the best team to come out of the West. They beat the thunder who was the top seed in their conference and then a gentleman sweep of the T-Wolves. Dallas had all of their players in the Finals and the C?s mopped the floor with them. Pretty funny that you are giving Boston credit for winning it all and then proceed to immediately discount the way that they won. Guess the C?s didn?t win good enough for some folks. 

Only a celtics fan will complain about winning a championship,  who flipping cares who was hurt.  It's not like the cs were fully healthy against any of their playoff opponents.

bold = BINGO!