NFL 2023-24 Off-Season

[Goldstar88]

Brady just ran a faster 40 at the age of 46 than he did at the 2000 combine.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1763208114092880164

He looks ready for his return… Again.

[Donoghus]

Rumor that the Bears are trading Fields to ATL and swapping 1st rounders with the Bears also picking up ATL's 2nd rounder.

We'll see if there's any substance or just another Twitter rumor that goes nowhere.

[Roy H.]

Rumor that the Bears are trading Fields to ATL and swapping 1st rounders with the Falcons also picking up ATL's 2nd rounder.

We'll see if there's any substance or just another Twitter rumor that goes nowhere.

I'd be down with that.

[Donoghus]

Rumor that the Bears are trading Fields to ATL and swapping 1st rounders with the Falcons also picking up ATL's 2nd rounder.

We'll see if there's any substance or just another Twitter rumor that goes nowhere.

I'd be down with that.

Yeah, seems fair.  I edited.  The Bears would be getting ATL's 2nd rounder.

[Vermont Green]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd? 

[Roy H.]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

[Vermont Green]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

[Roy H.]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

[Vermont Green]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

There is so much uncertainty in drafting that there is a chance you get a better player with the fourth round pick than with the 8th pick. I get that teams fall in love with players and want to move up but the percentages are against that, just ask the 49ers. 

[Roy H.]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

There is so much uncertainty in drafting that there is a chance you get a better player with the fourth round pick than with the 8th pick. I get that teams fall in love with players and want to move up but the percentages are against that, just ask the 49ers.

I think you've been overstating the randomness of the draft.   

[Moranis]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

There is so much uncertainty in drafting that there is a chance you get a better player with the fourth round pick than with the 8th pick. I get that teams fall in love with players and want to move up but the percentages are against that, just ask the 49ers.

I think you've been overstating the randomness of the draft.   

Yep, especially in the top 10 picks when a qb is not being drafted as a reach (and everyone knows who the reaches are, they do sometimes work out, but often do not which then clouds opinion on all picks). 

[Vermont Green]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

There is so much uncertainty in drafting that there is a chance you get a better player with the fourth round pick than with the 8th pick. I get that teams fall in love with players and want to move up but the percentages are against that, just ask the 49ers.

I think you've been overstating the randomness of the draft.   

Yep, especially in the top 10 picks when a qb is not being drafted as a reach (and everyone knows who the reaches are, they do sometimes work out, but often do not which then clouds opinion on all picks).

I was responding to post about the rumor that CHI was going to "move up" from 9 to 8.  There is no way to know that there is going to be any difference.  I would rather have an extra 4th round pick and the 9th pick than the 8th pick.  No one knows how any of the picks will turn out, especially trying to decide between 8 and 9.

As to the variability in the draft, I have been mostly focusing on QBs.  That is indisputable that QBs picked high end up being busts as often as stars.  Even last season's draft, Carolina traded a bunch to move up and get their guy who turned out to be worse than the guy taken #2.  There is a high level of risk with taking a QB with an ultra high pick, even for the team that gets Caleb Williams.

The 3rd point I have been making that many disagree with is that I feel the #3 pick is too high to use on a WR, in this case when it is likely that some team will trade foolishly to have a chance to draft a QB.  I would rather trade back.  If the "trade back" market wasn't expected to be as hot, maybe you take the best player available and move on.  But that is not the case this year.  If they don't want one of the QBs, they can probably trade back for a bunch.

Harrison is probably a pretty safe pick, but even he could bust.  As I have said, I would rather trade back and get a couple of first round tackles and/or a couple of second round WRs over taking one WR.

[Moranis]

They swap picks 8 and 9?   So basically the trade is Fields for a 2nd?

The value of swapping that pick is around a future 4th rounder, as we saw last season (Bears traded the 9th pick for the 10th and a 2024 4th).  So, if true, that would be a current 2nd and a future 4th, which is about what most people have been saying.

I think I would rather have the 4th round pick.

You wouldn't if your target went at #8.

There is so much uncertainty in drafting that there is a chance you get a better player with the fourth round pick than with the 8th pick. I get that teams fall in love with players and want to move up but the percentages are against that, just ask the 49ers.

I think you've been overstating the randomness of the draft.   

Yep, especially in the top 10 picks when a qb is not being drafted as a reach (and everyone knows who the reaches are, they do sometimes work out, but often do not which then clouds opinion on all picks).

I was responding to post about the rumor that CHI was going to "move up" from 9 to 8.  There is no way to know that there is going to be any difference.  I would rather have an extra 4th round pick and the 9th pick than the 8th pick.  No one knows how any of the picks will turn out, especially trying to decide between 8 and 9.

As to the variability in the draft, I have been mostly focusing on QBs.  That is indisputable that QBs picked high end up being busts as often as stars.  Even last season's draft, Carolina traded a bunch to move up and get their guy who turned out to be worse than the guy taken #2.  There is a high level of risk with taking a QB with an ultra high pick, even for the team that gets Caleb Williams.

The 3rd point I have been making that many disagree with is that I feel the #3 pick is too high to use on a WR, in this case when it is likely that some team will trade foolishly to have a chance to draft a QB.  I would rather trade back.  If the "trade back" market wasn't expected to be as hot, maybe you take the best player available and move on.  But that is not the case this year.  If they don't want one of the QBs, they can probably trade back for a bunch.

Harrison is probably a pretty safe pick, but even he could bust.  As I have said, I would rather trade back and get a couple of first round tackles and/or a couple of second round WRs over taking one WR.

there isn't, but in that scenario it does likely make sense to jump Atlanta who would seemingly have similar needs i.e. and OT or DL. So if you are the Bears, I think it is worthwhile to move ahead of the Falcons to make sure they don't take your target. 

[Vermont Green]

there isn't, but in that scenario it does likely make sense to jump Atlanta who would seemingly have similar needs i.e. and OT or DL. So if you are the Bears, I think it is worthwhile to move ahead of the Falcons to make sure they don't take your target.

I get it, but I think GMs over think this often.  I would stay at 9, take the additional 4th round pick, and plan that ATL will botch the pick at 8 anyway and expect to get who I want in any case.  The Bears, like the Pats, have plenty of needs.  If the tackle they like is taken at 8 or 7 or whatever, take a defensive guy and pick up your tackle later.

Trades to move up one pick tend to happen on the spot during the draft, when you know for sure who is already taken.  I wonder if CHI is going to wait that long to trade Fields.  I would be surprised if they do.  It seems silly to me trade up 1 spot now.  It may be that ATL isn't offering a 4th.  Swapping picks is better for CHI than not swapping picks, but if a 4th is also a choice, I take the 4th today and maybe trade up to 7 with that pick on draft day if you really feel you need to jump over ATL.

[SparzWizard]

Draft MHJ and trade for Kirk Cousins and I would be somewhat satisfied too.