2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[Vermont Green]

Setting aside whether you think Brown is a guard or a forward, if you were building a team, who would you rather have as your shooting guard:

Lillard
Mitchell
Brown
Maxey
Lavine

(just trying to capture all the top East Conference non-PG guards).

The fact that Brown has the size and defensive ability to play at SF also, does not take away from how effective he is or can be as a SG.  It actually just adds to his overall value to a team.

Up until last season, the Celtics have played with 2 bigs, Tatum at SF, and Brown at SG,  throughout Brown's career.  It is true that he is being played as a forward this season (if you adhere to the 2 guards, 2 forwards, 1 center convention vs. just saying that we are playing 3 guards), but he has played more as a guard in his career and in my opinion, is at his more natural position when playing guard.

[G-Bones]

TP to you Vermont Green for your post.

Where does Derrick White rank with all those other guards. Maybe I am biased, but I would take him (as wellasBrown) over all those other guys, too.

[Neurotic Guy]

Jaylen is clearly a guard, but he also has worse stats than Lillard so he wouldn't start over him anyway.  Brunson should be starting with Haliburton.

Jaylen shooting 49% from field, 36% from 3. 23, 5 and 4 with above average defense. Lilliard 25, 4, 7 with 43% from field 35% from 3 with league worse defense for a team with a worse record. Lillard +204, brown +298. What stats are you referring
To? Or was this blind negativity towards Celtics hoping nobody had internet access?

Lillard has superior overall scoring efficiency at 60.3% TS% over Jaylen's 57.8% (average mark). Lillard gets to the FT line a lot more than Jaylen so even though Lillard hasn't shot the ball as well, he gets a lot of easy points at the line. He gets to the FT line at almost twice the rate of Jaylen. Jaylen gets 4.4 FTA. Lillard 8.1 FTA.

Add in Lillard's superior playmaking with 6.8apg to Jaylen's 3.4apg and Lillard is clearly having a much larger impact on the game offensively than Jaylen is. Offensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard at a +3.8 to Jaylen's +0.7.

Jaylen is much better defensively. An above average defender vs Lillard's poor defense. Defensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard as a -1.5 (bad) and Jaylen at +0.2.

I don't know how I'd rank them overall. I do think it is clear that Lillard has been far better offensively than Jaylen and that Jaylen has been far better than Lillard defensively.

Yes of course lillard is gonna have more assists… they have very similar stats overall when you take into account defensive stats. Saying lillard has better stats is highly debatable. When you add in Jaylen is on the better team there isn’t much of an argument for Lilliard starting over him.

Lillard scores over 2 more ppg on 0.5 less fga.  Lillard has nearly double the assists and turns it over less. Lillard commits 1 less foul and gets an equal amount of steals.  Brown gets about 1 more rebound and about a half a block more per game.  Lillard has a better PER on a lower usage.  Lillard has more total WS, better WS per 48, a better bpm, a better vorp, and just about any other advanced metric you want to look at.  The stats are not close and while Brown is obviously a better defensive player there is a larger gap offensively, which is why the stats aren't close.  Lillard has better stats than Brown because Lillard is a better player than Brown, even as he adjusts to a new team and new role.

I can’t do the eye test on Lilliard v. Jaylen because I’ve seen very little of Lilliard. At this level of play I don’t put a lot of stock in statistics, and by this I mean using statistics to state definitively who is the better player.  It might be Lilliard.  But what I’ve seen with my eyes over the last two months is an all-star in Jaylen Brown.  You must have stopped watching games in December once it became clear that JB stepped up defensively, has increasingly looked to feed teammates, has become a more effective playmaker and rebounder - all while gradually increasing ppg.  You can’t possibly be watching the Celtics and still believe that JB isn’t a fit with this team and isn’t a star.  He is incredibly valuable to the Cs. And as much as we all love DW, take JB out of the mix and Derrick suddenly gets more attention and fewer open looks. On a given night, DW, KP or JH may have more value depending on matchups and how one or the other might be playing/producing, but overall I’ll pick JB #2 in a Celtics draft. Very deserving of another all-star selection.

[Celtics2021]

I know KP probably has the best claim outside of the Jays to be the third Celtic, but I kind of hope Derrick gets it for 2 reasons: 1) KP's been recognized as an All Star before already and I don't want him getting hurt in some meaningless game and 2) I feel like it would be great recognition for Derrick's impact on our team. According to advanced stats he's the player that contributes most to winning in our team and he does it not just by scoring. And I like the fact that our Top 6 players would be all All-Stars (current and past) 

With Dame making the starter spot and the coaches - who usually favor winning (White) over individual stats (Trae) - he has a shot.

I do think it's a 50/50 shot that we get a third All-Star at this point. With us distinguishing ourselves as the clear favorite at this point with a significant record lead, I think that'll show up favorably for the coaches. I just hope they don't compete against each other for a wildcard spot as the third Celtic and take votes away from each other.

I think we’re a lock for a 3rd All-Star, but with the new DNP-rest rules, do we want one?  Holiday was already an All-Star last year, so if either KP or White get the nod, then we’re up to four players to whole that rule applies.  If both get it (and it’s not impossible) then it’s the entire starting 5.  I’d like the Celtics to be allowed some load management if we’re still up 4-5 games in the standings when our schedule finally gets soft in mid-March.

[Moranis]

Jaylen is clearly a guard, but he also has worse stats than Lillard so he wouldn't start over him anyway.  Brunson should be starting with Haliburton.

Jaylen shooting 49% from field, 36% from 3. 23, 5 and 4 with above average defense. Lilliard 25, 4, 7 with 43% from field 35% from 3 with league worse defense for a team with a worse record. Lillard +204, brown +298. What stats are you referring
To? Or was this blind negativity towards Celtics hoping nobody had internet access?

Lillard has superior overall scoring efficiency at 60.3% TS% over Jaylen's 57.8% (average mark). Lillard gets to the FT line a lot more than Jaylen so even though Lillard hasn't shot the ball as well, he gets a lot of easy points at the line. He gets to the FT line at almost twice the rate of Jaylen. Jaylen gets 4.4 FTA. Lillard 8.1 FTA.

Add in Lillard's superior playmaking with 6.8apg to Jaylen's 3.4apg and Lillard is clearly having a much larger impact on the game offensively than Jaylen is. Offensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard at a +3.8 to Jaylen's +0.7.

Jaylen is much better defensively. An above average defender vs Lillard's poor defense. Defensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard as a -1.5 (bad) and Jaylen at +0.2.

I don't know how I'd rank them overall. I do think it is clear that Lillard has been far better offensively than Jaylen and that Jaylen has been far better than Lillard defensively.

Yes of course lillard is gonna have more assists… they have very similar stats overall when you take into account defensive stats. Saying lillard has better stats is highly debatable. When you add in Jaylen is on the better team there isn’t much of an argument for Lilliard starting over him.

Lillard scores over 2 more ppg on 0.5 less fga.  Lillard has nearly double the assists and turns it over less. Lillard commits 1 less foul and gets an equal amount of steals.  Brown gets about 1 more rebound and about a half a block more per game.  Lillard has a better PER on a lower usage.  Lillard has more total WS, better WS per 48, a better bpm, a better vorp, and just about any other advanced metric you want to look at.  The stats are not close and while Brown is obviously a better defensive player there is a larger gap offensively, which is why the stats aren't close.  Lillard has better stats than Brown because Lillard is a better player than Brown, even as he adjusts to a new team and new role.

I can’t do the eye test on Lilliard v. Jaylen because I’ve seen very little of Lilliard. At this level of play I don’t put a lot of stock in statistics, and by this I mean using statistics to state definitively who is the better player.  It might be Lilliard.  But what I’ve seen with my eyes over the last two months is an all-star in Jaylen Brown.  You must have stopped watching games in December once it became clear that JB stepped up defensively, has increasingly looked to feed teammates, has become a more effective playmaker and rebounder - all while gradually increasing ppg.  You can’t possibly be watching the Celtics and still believe that JB isn’t a fit with this team and isn’t a star.  He is incredibly valuable to the Cs. And as much as we all love DW, take JB out of the mix and Derrick suddenly gets more attention and fewer open looks. On a given night, DW, KP or JH may have more value depending on matchups and how one or the other might be playing/producing, but overall I’ll pick JB #2 in a Celtics draft. Very deserving of another all-star selection.

lots of projecting happening.  Again, all I said was Lillard should start over Brown because Lillard has better stats.  And Lillard does have better stats.  That is a fact, as I outlined.  The all star game has always been much more about stats and star power than the post season awards have been.  It will likely remain that way forever.

[liam]

Classic NBA showing Lakers vs Warriors instead of the much better Celtics vs Clippers.

[bdm860]

LeBron on making his 20th All-Star game: “I’ve exceeded anything … that I ever dreamed about that I would be in the NBA”

Pretty PC, low hanging fruit, easy vanilla answer, but still it makes a lot of sense, and hits home too.


I definitely had wild dreams of making the NBA as a kid.  Playing on the nerf hoop in my room, I concocted all sorts of elaborate, in-depth, detailed fantasies about my future NBA career.

It involved outlandish stuff too (winning like 7-8 championships/MVPs, 7 dunk contests, 5 3-point contests, averaging a 50 point triple double, having the first 82-0 season, breaking Wilt's 100 point game record, etc.).

Even with all those crazy accomplishments, I never dreamed about making 20 All-Star games (and counting), that would have just been too out there.

[Vermont Green]

TP to you Vermont Green for your post.

Where does Derrick White rank with all those other guards. Maybe I am biased, but I would take him (as wellasBrown) over all those other guys, too.

Derrick White had a great start to the season.  He played at what I would consider an all star level for a couple of months, maybe more.  I feel the has come back down to earth some in the last month or so.

But even in what for White is a career year, he is scoring 15.9 pts and Brown is scoring 23.0 pts.  As Moranis is saying, points and other primary box score stats matter more in all star voting, understandably.  White brings all-NBA level defense as well, of course, but scoring is still probably the most important stat when trying to designate the top guards in the league.

I would have White in the next tier of guards, not this top tier.  If he was on a team where he was being asked to be a primary scorer every night, like these other top guards are, I think you would start to see some limitations with White.

[RMO]

Classic NBA showing Lakers vs Warriors instead of the much better Celtics vs Clippers.

I think they're pushing some kind of rivals week though some are a bit of a stretch.

[keevsnick]

Jaylen is clearly a guard, but he also has worse stats than Lillard so he wouldn't start over him anyway.  Brunson should be starting with Haliburton.

Jaylen shooting 49% from field, 36% from 3. 23, 5 and 4 with above average defense. Lilliard 25, 4, 7 with 43% from field 35% from 3 with league worse defense for a team with a worse record. Lillard +204, brown +298. What stats are you referring
To? Or was this blind negativity towards Celtics hoping nobody had internet access?

Lillard has superior overall scoring efficiency at 60.3% TS% over Jaylen's 57.8% (average mark). Lillard gets to the FT line a lot more than Jaylen so even though Lillard hasn't shot the ball as well, he gets a lot of easy points at the line. He gets to the FT line at almost twice the rate of Jaylen. Jaylen gets 4.4 FTA. Lillard 8.1 FTA.

Add in Lillard's superior playmaking with 6.8apg to Jaylen's 3.4apg and Lillard is clearly having a much larger impact on the game offensively than Jaylen is. Offensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard at a +3.8 to Jaylen's +0.7.

Jaylen is much better defensively. An above average defender vs Lillard's poor defense. Defensive box plus/minus on Bball-ref has Lillard as a -1.5 (bad) and Jaylen at +0.2.

I don't know how I'd rank them overall. I do think it is clear that Lillard has been far better offensively than Jaylen and that Jaylen has been far better than Lillard defensively.

Yes of course lillard is gonna have more assists… they have very similar stats overall when you take into account defensive stats. Saying lillard has better stats is highly debatable. When you add in Jaylen is on the better team there isn’t much of an argument for Lilliard starting over him.

Lillard scores over 2 more ppg on 0.5 less fga.  Lillard has nearly double the assists and turns it over less. Lillard commits 1 less foul and gets an equal amount of steals.  Brown gets about 1 more rebound and about a half a block more per game.  Lillard has a better PER on a lower usage.  Lillard has more total WS, better WS per 48, a better bpm, a better vorp, and just about any other advanced metric you want to look at.  The stats are not close and while Brown is obviously a better defensive player there is a larger gap offensively, which is why the stats aren't close.  Lillard has better stats than Brown because Lillard is a better player than Brown, even as he adjusts to a new team and new role.

I can’t do the eye test on Lilliard v. Jaylen because I’ve seen very little of Lilliard. At this level of play I don’t put a lot of stock in statistics, and by this I mean using statistics to state definitively who is the better player.  It might be Lilliard.  But what I’ve seen with my eyes over the last two months is an all-star in Jaylen Brown.  You must have stopped watching games in December once it became clear that JB stepped up defensively, has increasingly looked to feed teammates, has become a more effective playmaker and rebounder - all while gradually increasing ppg.  You can’t possibly be watching the Celtics and still believe that JB isn’t a fit with this team and isn’t a star.  He is incredibly valuable to the Cs. And as much as we all love DW, take JB out of the mix and Derrick suddenly gets more attention and fewer open looks. On a given night, DW, KP or JH may have more value depending on matchups and how one or the other might be playing/producing, but overall I’ll pick JB #2 in a Celtics draft. Very deserving of another all-star selection.

lots of projecting happening.  Again, all I said was Lillard should start over Brown because Lillard has better stats.  And Lillard does have better stats.  That is a fact, as I outlined.  The all star game has always been much more about stats and star power than the post season awards have been.  It will likely remain that way forever.

Also guys, Lillard is a guard and Brown is a forward. So this argument is about a hypothetical that doesn't exist.

[Moranis]

I think there is very little shot for White. I mean we already know Lillard and Haliburton are on team. Brunson and Mitchell are no brainers at guard. And frankly Maxey is also. Jaylen is making the team as well though perhaps he makes it as a front court player. So if Jaylen doesnt get that it will likely go to Trae.

There is no room for White and if Jaylen makes it in the front court, I'm not sure there is room for KP either.  I mean you have Embiid, Giannis, and Tatum.  Jaylen makes 4.  Then you have the 2 Miami guys (Bam and Jimmy), you've got Barnes, Siakam, Randle, Bridges, Banchero all in the mix.

As I said in the 3 all star thread, Boston is getting just 2.  The numbers do not support 3.  Just too many good players this year.

[Phantom255x]

Kuminga is getting an increased role and he actually has looked like a star. Averaging around 26/7 over the last 5 games

Interested to see if Golden State trades him. But they really should have let him play more earlier this season. Klay looks really washed. Curry is doing his best but it’s not translating to results

[Celtics2021]

Classic NBA showing Lakers vs Warriors instead of the much better Celtics vs Clippers.

I, for one, am glad to not have an 8:30 start time for a home game.  Maybe it would have been 8 instead of 8:30, but it was never going to be 7 for an ABC Saturday night game.

[celticsclay]

I think there is very little shot for White. I mean we already know Lillard and Haliburton are on team. Brunson and Mitchell are no brainers at guard. And frankly Maxey is also. Jaylen is making the team as well though perhaps he makes it as a front court player. So if Jaylen doesnt get that it will likely go to Trae.

There is no room for White and if Jaylen makes it in the front court, I'm not sure there is room for KP either.  I mean you have Embiid, Giannis, and Tatum.  Jaylen makes 4.  Then you have the 2 Miami guys (Bam and Jimmy), you've got Barnes, Siakam, Randle, Bridges, Banchero all in the mix.

As I said in the 3 all star thread, Boston is getting just 2.  The numbers do not support 3.  Just too many good players this year.

Barring a rash of injuries there is probably a very low chance of butler making it. He is averaging 20, 5 and 4, has only played 30 games (out of 45) and the heat are barely above .500

[Phantom255x]

I really don't understand the argument to have Jimmy Butler in the game. People talk about Porzingis missing games but Butler has played fewer games than him. And statistically he really isn't putting up "special" numbers either.

I agree there's no spots for Porzingis and White. The Celtics will only have the Jays representing. But there are absolutely others more deserving than Butler to make the game like Banchero, Barnes, etc.