2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[SparzWizard]

This is why I find it hard to really take Milwaukee seriously. Their record looks good, but they're barely winning games against low-level competition. And that's with having one of the easiest schedules thus far. For example, they're down 10 in the middle of the fourth in Chicago tonight, who doesn't have Lavine OR Derozan tonight. Yet we beat Chicago with both of them by 27 the other night, even not having KP.

Perhaps they figure it out, but it just seems like a mediocre team.

So that begs the question, come playoff time, is Philly the bigger threat in the East?

I'd say Orlando is and then Philly.

[blink]

This is why I find it hard to really take Milwaukee seriously. Their record looks good, but they're barely winning games against low-level competition. And that's with having one of the easiest schedules thus far. For example, they're down 10 in the middle of the fourth in Chicago tonight, who doesn't have Lavine OR Derozan tonight. Yet we beat Chicago with both of them by 27 the other night, even not having KP.

Perhaps they figure it out, but it just seems like a mediocre team.

So that begs the question, come playoff time, is Philly the bigger threat in the East?

I think it depends on who is more healthy.  Embiid seems like he runs out of gas in the playoffs, or maybe that is just what it appears like.
Is an aging Dame going to get to the post season injury free?   

I think there are 4 teams that are threats to us - 76ers, Bucks, Magic, Heat.   We struggle against the Magic and the Heat so they are thorns in our side as well.  We typically play well against the Bucks and 76ers.   I think if we play at or near our best, we are better than all 4. 

[cman88]

This is why I find it hard to really take Milwaukee seriously. Their record looks good, but they're barely winning games against low-level competition. And that's with having one of the easiest schedules thus far. For example, they're down 10 in the middle of the fourth in Chicago tonight, who doesn't have Lavine OR Derozan tonight. Yet we beat Chicago with both of them by 27 the other night, even not having KP.

Perhaps they figure it out, but it just seems like a mediocre team.

Almost lost to the heat minus herro and Jimmy.

Every game is a battle to the end for them even though they've been winning.

Eventually you get burned when every game is close.

[Moranis]

This is why I find it hard to really take Milwaukee seriously. Their record looks good, but they're barely winning games against low-level competition. And that's with having one of the easiest schedules thus far. For example, they're down 10 in the middle of the fourth in Chicago tonight, who doesn't have Lavine OR Derozan tonight. Yet we beat Chicago with both of them by 27 the other night, even not having KP.

Perhaps they figure it out, but it just seems like a mediocre team.

So that begs the question, come playoff time, is Philly the bigger threat in the East?

I'd say Orlando is and then Philly.

Orlando doesn't have tier 1 talent. They are a regular season team, not a post season one.  In a couple of years when Banchero and Wagner are in their prime, they will be a post season team, just not yet.

[tazzmaniac]

This is why I find it hard to really take Milwaukee seriously. Their record looks good, but they're barely winning games against low-level competition. And that's with having one of the easiest schedules thus far. For example, they're down 10 in the middle of the fourth in Chicago tonight, who doesn't have Lavine OR Derozan tonight. Yet we beat Chicago with both of them by 27 the other night, even not having KP.

Perhaps they figure it out, but it just seems like a mediocre team.

So that begs the question, come playoff time, is Philly the bigger threat in the East?

I think it depends on who is more healthy.  Embiid seems like he runs out of gas in the playoffs, or maybe that is just what it appears like.
Is an aging Dame going to get to the post season injury free?   

I think there are 4 teams that are threats to us - 76ers, Bucks, Magic, Heat.   We struggle against the Magic and the Heat so they are thorns in our side as well.  We typically play well against the Bucks and 76ers.   I think if we play at or near our best, we are better than all 4.

One factor to consider is coaching.  I would assume most everyone would give the Heat and Sixers, to a lesser degree, a significant coaching advantage over the Celts, Magic and especially the Bucks.  The Bucks defense has been substantially worse that the other 3 top teams.  For example, the Bucks and Sixers PPGs are 120.5 and 120.2 but their OPPGs are 117.9 and 112.4.  Seems highly unlikely that a 1st year newbie head coach will be able to improve their defense to be a solid playoff defense.

[Kernewek]

On the other hand, basketball players spend every possession trying to score points, and the presence of the tournament shouldn't make a meaningful difference.

To bring back the old discussions about hacking - if you don't want to get fouled every time down the stretch, it's incumbent on you to hit your free throws.

Well so far the IST seems like....a great idea? It's made people care about random Tuesday night games in late November.

Yeah, the tension tonight really justified the thing for me honestly.  I still hate the courts but if these guys are taking this seriously - and tonight demonstrated that they are - then I'm in.

If you guys are actually excited about it I am happy for you. I honestly have just felt like a gimmick has been jammed down my throat the last few weeks and it hasn’t made me
Care anymore. Like it is kind of cool if the end of bench guys on the Celtics get 500k or whatever but they should really add something tangible to make this matter like winner of it all gets the thirty first pick In the draft.

First pick in the draft is absolutely a nonstarter, though. There's no way to make that work.

he said 31st pick

Ah my mistake - however, many of the same problems. What happens when a team trades their only second-rounder and then wins the in-season tournament? Does the team they traded it to get that pick (as normal)? What's the incentive?

It’s actually not that hard and happens in lots of other sports. For example in baseball teams are awarded compensatory picks all the time for having free agents leave. They are also awarded in the NFL and NHL. You just would have language it is not eligible for pick swaps or whatever. When they were discussing this tournament this was brought up and I wouldn’t be surprised if it actually happens in the future.

So this would be a separate pick in addition to the team's normal 2nd rounder? That could work, although 31 might be too valuable if they aren't giving up anything (like they would be if swapping their 2nd). It would be easy to move that pick around, though, there's no reason they couldn't put it at like 41 or something (or give the option between getting another pick (say #41) or swapping your second rounder for #31)

As one of the people who brought up the problems with playing for draft picks or draft position in the earlier threads, it's important to highlight one crucial difference between the situations that Clay has highlighted with compensatory picks and the like: players are not usually competing for the right for their team to have more opportunities to draft their replacements, nor will they (and they shouldn't, really). This is the inverse of the major failings with 'The Process', in some ways - if the reward for winning is draft picks, players are incentivised not to win the tournament, because winning the tournament (for picks) only benefits management.

The overall goal is good basketball that people care about early in the season - which means you need to have player buy-in and engagement. If that is the goal, why on earth would anyone in the league play harder for the team to have more picks vs a payout?

It's not just about player buy in, it's about everybody buying in (players, coaches, ownership/management, fans).

$500k award to motivate the players
Extra pick to motivate ownership/management/diehard fans

Doesn't have to be either/or.

I understand what you're saying, but I would say that the current system has enough buy-in enough from coaches, ownership, and management already, save perhaps the point differential (that extra game is an extra game's worth of gate receipts, which ownership loves).

Let me put my concern another way: If you're an end-of-the-bench guy, maybe on an expiring contract or a two-way deal, is $500k enough motivation to help your team draft your replacement?

Does the motivation of an end of bench guy matter?  Which end of bench guys have played impactful minutes in one of these tournament games?  If JD Davison or Jordan Walsh or Lamar Stevens are less motivated now would you notice?

Or do you think the rotation guys will play less hard because one of their end of bench teammates might lose his spot in a year?  I do not think that is the case.  These are athletes that compete hard, and the stars always want more help (maybe not from a rookie, but for an asset that can be traded).

An extra pick wouldn't motivate players, but I don't think it would demotivate them either (at least not in Nov/Dec for a non lottery pick).  Any player that is so insecure about their spot a year out, that they don't want to win games now in fear of their spot being taken a year from now, is not a player I'm worried about.

Give money to help motivate the players.
Give a pick to help motivate fans like clay (and any other coaches/ownership that hasn't yet bought in).

To specifically answer your question.  Let's say I'm JD Davison (do two-way players qualify for the $500k?), I have no idea if I'm going to be still with this team or even in the league next year regardless of if my team gets an extra pick or not, so give me the $500k now.

That would be my mentality.

I think what you're saying makes sense. But I would point out that you're highlighting why most NBA players are 'insecure' about their position in the league - it's the same with nearly all professional athletes. There's a limited number of spots, they're all hypercompetitive, and most of them know this is their one big shot to secure as much as they can before their career is effectively over.

You don't need to be JD Davidson for this to apply, you hear it from nearly every level of NBA player save, perhaps, the absolute megastars.

[Kernewek]

I understand what you're saying, but I would say that the current system has enough buy-in enough from coaches, ownership, and management already, save perhaps the point differential (that extra game is an extra game's worth of gate receipts, which ownership loves).

That's something that I was thinking about, actually.

The Celtics had 40 home games and 40 away games before the in-season tournament.  Now, they've got 40 homes games and 41 away games.  If they advance in the tournament, they'll have 40 home games, 41 away games, and 1 neutral game (and another neutral site game if they advance to the IST Finals)

The Celtics have lost a home game, and the revenue associated with that.  Is that made up via the neutral site games?

I would assume this would have been factored into the revenue-sharing agreements prior to kickoff but afaik no one has asked the league about it and I haven't been able to find any reference to the relevant documentation anywhere.

[Donoghus]

I understand what you're saying, but I would say that the current system has enough buy-in enough from coaches, ownership, and management already, save perhaps the point differential (that extra game is an extra game's worth of gate receipts, which ownership loves).

That's something that I was thinking about, actually.

The Celtics had 40 home games and 40 away games before the in-season tournament.  Now, they've got 40 homes games and 41 away games.  If they advance in the tournament, they'll have 40 home games, 41 away games, and 1 neutral game (and another neutral site game if they advance to the IST Finals)

The Celtics have lost a home game, and the revenue associated with that.  Is that made up via the neutral site games?

I would assume this would have been factored into the revenue-sharing agreements prior to kickoff but afaik no one has asked the league about it and I haven't been able to find any reference to the relevant documentation anywhere.

STMs received an email the other day about tickets to a possible extra game (post QF lose).  Long story short, we've already paid for those tickets.  If they game is played, the ticket will remain active in our account manager.  If the game is not played, our payment will be credited towards any remaining '23-24 balance due.  Otherwise, it'll be credited towards "future ticket purchases" so presumably '24-25.  So the Celtics have our money upfront for this game and its just a matter of book keeping down the road.

[Kernewek]

I understand what you're saying, but I would say that the current system has enough buy-in enough from coaches, ownership, and management already, save perhaps the point differential (that extra game is an extra game's worth of gate receipts, which ownership loves).

That's something that I was thinking about, actually.

The Celtics had 40 home games and 40 away games before the in-season tournament.  Now, they've got 40 homes games and 41 away games.  If they advance in the tournament, they'll have 40 home games, 41 away games, and 1 neutral game (and another neutral site game if they advance to the IST Finals)

The Celtics have lost a home game, and the revenue associated with that.  Is that made up via the neutral site games?

I would assume this would have been factored into the revenue-sharing agreements prior to kickoff but afaik no one has asked the league about it and I haven't been able to find any reference to the relevant documentation anywhere.

STMs received an email the other day about tickets to a possible extra game (post QF lose).  Long story short, we've already paid for those tickets.  If they game is played, the ticket will remain active in our account manager.  If the game is not played, our payment will be credited towards any remaining '23-24 balance due.  Otherwise, it'll be credited towards "future ticket purchases" so presumably '24-25.  So the Celtics have our money upfront for this game and its just a matter of book keeping down the road.

Makes sense - thanks for that.

[Goldstar88]

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Still playing well, averaging 21ppg on 45/36/81 shooting splits.

DeMar DeRozan very likely to be traded

After all these months (years?) of chatter about the Bulls and Raptors becoming sellers, they remain at the forefront of nearly every trade deadline season conversation I have with scouts and executives these days. You know the usual suspects by now — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as the headliners in Toronto, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in Chicago and high-level role players from both teams possibly hitting the market as well. DeRozan, perhaps more than any of the aforementioned players, is considered very likely to be on the move before the deadline passes. – via Sam Amick @ The Athletic

[Birdman]

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Still playing well, averaging 21ppg on 45/36/81 shooting splits.

DeMar DeRozan very likely to be traded

After all these months (years?) of chatter about the Bulls and Raptors becoming sellers, they remain at the forefront of nearly every trade deadline season conversation I have with scouts and executives these days. You know the usual suspects by now — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as the headliners in Toronto, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in Chicago and high-level role players from both teams possibly hitting the market as well. DeRozan, perhaps more than any of the aforementioned players, is considered very likely to be on the move before the deadline passes. – via Sam Amick @ The Athletic

I say Miami will get one of those 4

[hpantazo]

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Still playing well, averaging 21ppg on 45/36/81 shooting splits.

DeMar DeRozan very likely to be traded

After all these months (years?) of chatter about the Bulls and Raptors becoming sellers, they remain at the forefront of nearly every trade deadline season conversation I have with scouts and executives these days. You know the usual suspects by now — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as the headliners in Toronto, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in Chicago and high-level role players from both teams possibly hitting the market as well. DeRozan, perhaps more than any of the aforementioned players, is considered very likely to be on the move before the deadline passes. – via Sam Amick @ The Athletic

I say Miami will get one of those 4

Miami needs to go younger and add to Adebayo and Herro. Siakam would be a good target for them, and so would Anunoby to a lesser extent. They should refrain from adding more highly paid older vets like Derozan and Lavine. Butler's time has run out and Lowry has been a disaster for them.

[Goldstar88]

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Still playing well, averaging 21ppg on 45/36/81 shooting splits.

DeMar DeRozan very likely to be traded

After all these months (years?) of chatter about the Bulls and Raptors becoming sellers, they remain at the forefront of nearly every trade deadline season conversation I have with scouts and executives these days. You know the usual suspects by now — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as the headliners in Toronto, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in Chicago and high-level role players from both teams possibly hitting the market as well. DeRozan, perhaps more than any of the aforementioned players, is considered very likely to be on the move before the deadline passes. – via Sam Amick @ The Athletic

I say Miami will get one of those 4

Miami needs to go younger and add to Adebayo and Herro. Siakam would be a good target for them, and so would Anunoby to a lesser extent. They should refrain from adding more highly paid older vets like Derozan and Lavine. Butler's time has run out and Lowry has been a disaster for them.

When it comes to possible destinations, the Heat and Knicks are known to be preferable to DeMar DeRozan if he winds up getting moved.
Source: Sam Amick @ The Athletic

[ChillyWilly]

Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Still playing well, averaging 21ppg on 45/36/81 shooting splits.

DeMar DeRozan very likely to be traded

After all these months (years?) of chatter about the Bulls and Raptors becoming sellers, they remain at the forefront of nearly every trade deadline season conversation I have with scouts and executives these days. You know the usual suspects by now — OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam as the headliners in Toronto, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in Chicago and high-level role players from both teams possibly hitting the market as well. DeRozan, perhaps more than any of the aforementioned players, is considered very likely to be on the move before the deadline passes. – via Sam Amick @ The Athletic

I say Miami will get one of those 4

Miami needs to go younger and add to Adebayo and Herro. Siakam would be a good target for them, and so would Anunoby to a lesser extent. They should refrain from adding more highly paid older vets like Derozan and Lavine. Butler's time has run out and Lowry has been a disaster for them.

When it comes to possible destinations, the Heat and Knicks are known to be preferable to DeMar DeRozan if he winds up getting moved.
Source: Sam Amick @ The Athletic

Arent Butler and Derozan the same player?

[Moranis]

I'd like Siakam here a lot. No way to get him this season though.