2024 NBA Season and Playoffs

[keevsnick]

And the tank to avoid Philly/Miami is already starting for Milwaukee! For Friday’s game against OKC:

Out - Giannis, Green, Beauchamp

Doubtful - Lillard

Questionable - Lopez, Middleton

They have a game cushion where as long as they win one of the two remaining games they can stay in 2nd, so it seems like they may tank the OKC game and then decide who to play on Sunday based on how the seedlings are looking - e.g. if Philly beats Orlando tonight they’ll likely be out of the play-in and it makes sense to try and win Sunday.

This strategy worked out so well for them last time, hope it backfires on them again!

I don’t think anyone is tanking to avoid anyone given that nobody is locked into their seeding. Philly could very well end up in 6 still right? I think teams are just trying to get healthy for most part and whole league plays Sunday

I mean, Milwaukee has a clear history of doing this, and they’re highly incentivized to get as easy of a first round opponent as possible given their recent struggles and the Giannis injury, let alone the looming threat of Philly or Miami in the first round.

And as I said above, they can control their own destiny even by just winning one of the last two games, and they’ll have a much better understanding of who will be in the play-in by Sunday. So I do think there’s absolutely some strategic testing going on here.

I think you can do it with the 4-5 seed or 6-3 if they are locked up. But how will they know if Philly is 7 or 8 before Sunday? The teams have to close together records this year to really manipulate the standings

If Philly beats Orlando tonight, then Milwaukee can control their own destiny with avoiding Philly in the first round by beating Orlando Sunday, which would push them in the play-in instead of Philly (or if Philly also beats Nets on Sunday, which is likely). If Philly loses to Orlando, then they’re almost certainly in the play-in alongside Miami, which would allow Milwaukee to lose on Sunday and avoid both of them in the first round and get a better matchup of likely Orlando, Cleveland, or Philly.

The way the schedule is setu and the competing teams playing each other, they absolutely can manipulate the standings even with no seedings set yet. It might come at a cost of HCA in the second round, but with the Giannis injury + a healthy Embiid, I think that’s a gamble that might make sense to Milwaukee to avoid them in the first round, especially given their history of doing just this.

It would be pretty hilarious is the Bucks try to avoid Phili in round one but end up losing their final two games, fall to third, and still face Phili in the first round. If Phili wins tonight they'd be tied with Orlando, and they own the head to head tiebreaker and own the head to head tiebreaker. So if Indiana sweeps its last two avoiding a three way tie then Phili would end up 6th. Meanwhile if the Bucks lose there last two and NYK wins there last two Milwaukee would end up 3rd.

there are too many scenarios to try and game out. I think the Bucks probably just want to avoid nay more last minutes injuries like just happened with Giannis

[jpotter33]

And the tank to avoid Philly/Miami is already starting for Milwaukee! For Friday’s game against OKC:

Out - Giannis, Green, Beauchamp

Doubtful - Lillard

Questionable - Lopez, Middleton

They have a game cushion where as long as they win one of the two remaining games they can stay in 2nd, so it seems like they may tank the OKC game and then decide who to play on Sunday based on how the seedlings are looking - e.g. if Philly beats Orlando tonight they’ll likely be out of the play-in and it makes sense to try and win Sunday.

This strategy worked out so well for them last time, hope it backfires on them again!

I don’t think anyone is tanking to avoid anyone given that nobody is locked into their seeding. Philly could very well end up in 6 still right? I think teams are just trying to get healthy for most part and whole league plays Sunday

I mean, Milwaukee has a clear history of doing this, and they’re highly incentivized to get as easy of a first round opponent as possible given their recent struggles and the Giannis injury, let alone the looming threat of Philly or Miami in the first round.

And as I said above, they can control their own destiny even by just winning one of the last two games, and they’ll have a much better understanding of who will be in the play-in by Sunday. So I do think there’s absolutely some strategic testing going on here.

I think you can do it with the 4-5 seed or 6-3 if they are locked up. But how will they know if Philly is 7 or 8 before Sunday? The teams have to close together records this year to really manipulate the standings

If Philly beats Orlando tonight, then Milwaukee can control their own destiny with avoiding Philly in the first round by beating Orlando Sunday, which would push them in the play-in instead of Philly (or if Philly also beats Nets on Sunday, which is likely). If Philly loses to Orlando, then they’re almost certainly in the play-in alongside Miami, which would allow Milwaukee to lose on Sunday and avoid both of them in the first round and get a better matchup of likely Orlando, Cleveland, or Philly.

The way the schedule is setu and the competing teams playing each other, they absolutely can manipulate the standings even with no seedings set yet. It might come at a cost of HCA in the second round, but with the Giannis injury + a healthy Embiid, I think that’s a gamble that might make sense to Milwaukee to avoid them in the first round, especially given their history of doing just this.

What you are saying still doesn't make any sense in my opinion. The bucks have already announced they are throwing their game (according to your comment) before Orlando plays Philly. If Orlando wins this could increase their chances of playing Philly in first round and could cost them home court in second round. How does that make sense? They are just absolutely positive Orlando can't beat Philly tonight?

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying.

They’re tanking TONIGHT’s game against OKC, because it doesn’t impact anything regarding seeding for them. They only need one more win to lock up the second seed, which they can get on Sunday versus Magic if they want to stay in the second seed.

If the assumption is that they’re tanking to avoid Philly (which I’m making), I’m not sure I follow how Orlando winning tonight makes them more likely to face Philly. If Orlando wins, Philly is almost certainly in the play-in with Miami, and all Milwaukee would have to do is lose to Orlando on Sunday to avoid having to play the play-in winner of Philly or Miami. This would then allow them to drop to third (or fourth, depending upon how the Cavs/Indy game goes tonight, which is another benefit they have that makes tanking tonight a benefit) and play one of Orlando, Cleveland, or Indy in the first round.m instead of Philly or Miami.

In order to avoid Philly and a tougher matchup, yes, it would be a potential trade-off of home court in the second round if the Knicks pass them for 2nd and win the first round. But if you’re worried about playing Philly and there’s concerns about Giannis’ health in the first round, that’s not an unreasonable gamble, as I bet they think they could beat NYK in the second round even without home court advantage.

[Vermont Green]

There is so little decided at this point.  I believe that our first round opponent could be MIA, PHI, IND, ATL, CHI or ORL still at this point.  And maybe CLE too, I don't know.  I prefer to see NYK or MIL get PHI in the first round, but beyond that, I don't care who matches up otherwise.  I am not going to risk my head exploding trying to understand all the permutations and decide who is a better or worse match up.  A tough first round series may not be a bad thing anyway.

[celticsclay]

And the tank to avoid Philly/Miami is already starting for Milwaukee! For Friday’s game against OKC:

Out - Giannis, Green, Beauchamp

Doubtful - Lillard

Questionable - Lopez, Middleton

They have a game cushion where as long as they win one of the two remaining games they can stay in 2nd, so it seems like they may tank the OKC game and then decide who to play on Sunday based on how the seedlings are looking - e.g. if Philly beats Orlando tonight they’ll likely be out of the play-in and it makes sense to try and win Sunday.

This strategy worked out so well for them last time, hope it backfires on them again!

I don’t think anyone is tanking to avoid anyone given that nobody is locked into their seeding. Philly could very well end up in 6 still right? I think teams are just trying to get healthy for most part and whole league plays Sunday

I mean, Milwaukee has a clear history of doing this, and they’re highly incentivized to get as easy of a first round opponent as possible given their recent struggles and the Giannis injury, let alone the looming threat of Philly or Miami in the first round.

And as I said above, they can control their own destiny even by just winning one of the last two games, and they’ll have a much better understanding of who will be in the play-in by Sunday. So I do think there’s absolutely some strategic testing going on here.

I think you can do it with the 4-5 seed or 6-3 if they are locked up. But how will they know if Philly is 7 or 8 before Sunday? The teams have to close together records this year to really manipulate the standings

If Philly beats Orlando tonight, then Milwaukee can control their own destiny with avoiding Philly in the first round by beating Orlando Sunday, which would push them in the play-in instead of Philly (or if Philly also beats Nets on Sunday, which is likely). If Philly loses to Orlando, then they’re almost certainly in the play-in alongside Miami, which would allow Milwaukee to lose on Sunday and avoid both of them in the first round and get a better matchup of likely Orlando, Cleveland, or Philly.

The way the schedule is setu and the competing teams playing each other, they absolutely can manipulate the standings even with no seedings set yet. It might come at a cost of HCA in the second round, but with the Giannis injury + a healthy Embiid, I think that’s a gamble that might make sense to Milwaukee to avoid them in the first round, especially given their history of doing just this.

What you are saying still doesn't make any sense in my opinion. The bucks have already announced they are throwing their game (according to your comment) before Orlando plays Philly. If Orlando wins this could increase their chances of playing Philly in first round and could cost them home court in second round. How does that make sense? They are just absolutely positive Orlando can't beat Philly tonight?

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying.

They’re tanking TONIGHT’s game against OKC, because it doesn’t impact anything regarding seeding for them. They only need one more win to lock up the second seed, which they can get on Sunday versus Magic if they want to stay in the second seed.

If the assumption is that they’re tanking to avoid Philly (which I’m making), I’m not sure I follow how Orlando winning tonight makes them more likely to face Philly. If Orlando wins, Philly is almost certainly in the play-in with Miami, and all Milwaukee would have to do is lose to Orlando on Sunday to avoid having to play the play-in winner of Philly or Miami. This would then allow them to drop to third (or fourth, depending upon how the Cavs/Indy game goes tonight, which is another benefit they have that makes tanking tonight a benefit) and play one of Orlando, Cleveland, or Indy in the first round.m instead of Philly or Miami.

In order to avoid Philly and a tougher matchup, yes, it would be a potential trade-off of home court in the second round if the Knicks pass them for 2nd and win the first round. But if you’re worried about playing Philly and there’s concerns about Giannis’ health in the first round, that’s not an unreasonable gamble, as I bet they think they could beat NYK in the second round even without home court advantage.

How can they "just beat Orlando Sunday if they want" without Giannis? If Orlando has incentive to win at home they would be favored in that matchup without Giannis.

There are cases where teams try to manipulate the standings in certain years if their some certainty in matchups and a star player is injured. The playin tournament has made this a lot harder because at most 2 first round series can be set entering the playoffs. Now you add in a year like this where all the teams are jumbled and literally only one playoff series is locked for the entire league and it is kind of ridiculous to try and start messing with the standings. Teams are absolutely more worried about getting their banged up guys some rest than hoping and praying three games go as projected and they avoid one specific team in the first round.

[jpotter33]

And the tank to avoid Philly/Miami is already starting for Milwaukee! For Friday’s game against OKC:

Out - Giannis, Green, Beauchamp

Doubtful - Lillard

Questionable - Lopez, Middleton

They have a game cushion where as long as they win one of the two remaining games they can stay in 2nd, so it seems like they may tank the OKC game and then decide who to play on Sunday based on how the seedlings are looking - e.g. if Philly beats Orlando tonight they’ll likely be out of the play-in and it makes sense to try and win Sunday.

This strategy worked out so well for them last time, hope it backfires on them again!

I don’t think anyone is tanking to avoid anyone given that nobody is locked into their seeding. Philly could very well end up in 6 still right? I think teams are just trying to get healthy for most part and whole league plays Sunday

I mean, Milwaukee has a clear history of doing this, and they’re highly incentivized to get as easy of a first round opponent as possible given their recent struggles and the Giannis injury, let alone the looming threat of Philly or Miami in the first round.

And as I said above, they can control their own destiny even by just winning one of the last two games, and they’ll have a much better understanding of who will be in the play-in by Sunday. So I do think there’s absolutely some strategic testing going on here.

I think you can do it with the 4-5 seed or 6-3 if they are locked up. But how will they know if Philly is 7 or 8 before Sunday? The teams have to close together records this year to really manipulate the standings

If Philly beats Orlando tonight, then Milwaukee can control their own destiny with avoiding Philly in the first round by beating Orlando Sunday, which would push them in the play-in instead of Philly (or if Philly also beats Nets on Sunday, which is likely). If Philly loses to Orlando, then they’re almost certainly in the play-in alongside Miami, which would allow Milwaukee to lose on Sunday and avoid both of them in the first round and get a better matchup of likely Orlando, Cleveland, or Philly.

The way the schedule is setu and the competing teams playing each other, they absolutely can manipulate the standings even with no seedings set yet. It might come at a cost of HCA in the second round, but with the Giannis injury + a healthy Embiid, I think that’s a gamble that might make sense to Milwaukee to avoid them in the first round, especially given their history of doing just this.

What you are saying still doesn't make any sense in my opinion. The bucks have already announced they are throwing their game (according to your comment) before Orlando plays Philly. If Orlando wins this could increase their chances of playing Philly in first round and could cost them home court in second round. How does that make sense? They are just absolutely positive Orlando can't beat Philly tonight?

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying.

They’re tanking TONIGHT’s game against OKC, because it doesn’t impact anything regarding seeding for them. They only need one more win to lock up the second seed, which they can get on Sunday versus Magic if they want to stay in the second seed.

If the assumption is that they’re tanking to avoid Philly (which I’m making), I’m not sure I follow how Orlando winning tonight makes them more likely to face Philly. If Orlando wins, Philly is almost certainly in the play-in with Miami, and all Milwaukee would have to do is lose to Orlando on Sunday to avoid having to play the play-in winner of Philly or Miami. This would then allow them to drop to third (or fourth, depending upon how the Cavs/Indy game goes tonight, which is another benefit they have that makes tanking tonight a benefit) and play one of Orlando, Cleveland, or Indy in the first round.m instead of Philly or Miami.

In order to avoid Philly and a tougher matchup, yes, it would be a potential trade-off of home court in the second round if the Knicks pass them for 2nd and win the first round. But if you’re worried about playing Philly and there’s concerns about Giannis’ health in the first round, that’s not an unreasonable gamble, as I bet they think they could beat NYK in the second round even without home court advantage.

How can they "just beat Orlando Sunday if they want" without Giannis?

I mean, they literally did just that two days ago. Granted, it was in Milwaukee, but it’s still not unreasonable to expect that they can beat them.

The situation is the same regardless if they’re purposefully tanking tonight to give them flexibility or purely doing it for rest. They're very unlikely to beat a motivated OKC team at home anyways, so they’re either (a) purposefully tanking tonight to give them flexibility to decide what to do on Sunday, or (b) calling this game an expected loss anyways and giving their guys rest and hoping they can win if needed on Sunday.

Like most things in life, it’s probably a little bit of (a) and a little bit of (b), but I have a hard time believing this isn’t at least part of their strategic motivations given their history and the context of the injury situation.

[Neurotic Guy]

There is so little decided at this point.  I believe that our first round opponent could be MIA, PHI, IND, ATL, CHI or ORL still at this point.  And maybe CLE too, I don't know.  I prefer to see NYK or MIL get PHI in the first round, but beyond that, I don't care who matches up otherwise.  I am not going to risk my head exploding trying to understand all the permutations and decide who is a better or worse match up.  A tough first round series may not be a bad thing anyway.

Despite the negativity that will ensue here, I prefer a tough first round. A hard fought series will help them be well-seasoned for later rounds.

[celticsclay]

And the tank to avoid Philly/Miami is already starting for Milwaukee! For Friday’s game against OKC:

Out - Giannis, Green, Beauchamp

Doubtful - Lillard

Questionable - Lopez, Middleton

They have a game cushion where as long as they win one of the two remaining games they can stay in 2nd, so it seems like they may tank the OKC game and then decide who to play on Sunday based on how the seedlings are looking - e.g. if Philly beats Orlando tonight they’ll likely be out of the play-in and it makes sense to try and win Sunday.

This strategy worked out so well for them last time, hope it backfires on them again!

I don’t think anyone is tanking to avoid anyone given that nobody is locked into their seeding. Philly could very well end up in 6 still right? I think teams are just trying to get healthy for most part and whole league plays Sunday

I mean, Milwaukee has a clear history of doing this, and they’re highly incentivized to get as easy of a first round opponent as possible given their recent struggles and the Giannis injury, let alone the looming threat of Philly or Miami in the first round.

And as I said above, they can control their own destiny even by just winning one of the last two games, and they’ll have a much better understanding of who will be in the play-in by Sunday. So I do think there’s absolutely some strategic testing going on here.

I think you can do it with the 4-5 seed or 6-3 if they are locked up. But how will they know if Philly is 7 or 8 before Sunday? The teams have to close together records this year to really manipulate the standings

If Philly beats Orlando tonight, then Milwaukee can control their own destiny with avoiding Philly in the first round by beating Orlando Sunday, which would push them in the play-in instead of Philly (or if Philly also beats Nets on Sunday, which is likely). If Philly loses to Orlando, then they’re almost certainly in the play-in alongside Miami, which would allow Milwaukee to lose on Sunday and avoid both of them in the first round and get a better matchup of likely Orlando, Cleveland, or Philly.

The way the schedule is setu and the competing teams playing each other, they absolutely can manipulate the standings even with no seedings set yet. It might come at a cost of HCA in the second round, but with the Giannis injury + a healthy Embiid, I think that’s a gamble that might make sense to Milwaukee to avoid them in the first round, especially given their history of doing just this.

What you are saying still doesn't make any sense in my opinion. The bucks have already announced they are throwing their game (according to your comment) before Orlando plays Philly. If Orlando wins this could increase their chances of playing Philly in first round and could cost them home court in second round. How does that make sense? They are just absolutely positive Orlando can't beat Philly tonight?

I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying.

They’re tanking TONIGHT’s game against OKC, because it doesn’t impact anything regarding seeding for them. They only need one more win to lock up the second seed, which they can get on Sunday versus Magic if they want to stay in the second seed.

If the assumption is that they’re tanking to avoid Philly (which I’m making), I’m not sure I follow how Orlando winning tonight makes them more likely to face Philly. If Orlando wins, Philly is almost certainly in the play-in with Miami, and all Milwaukee would have to do is lose to Orlando on Sunday to avoid having to play the play-in winner of Philly or Miami. This would then allow them to drop to third (or fourth, depending upon how the Cavs/Indy game goes tonight, which is another benefit they have that makes tanking tonight a benefit) and play one of Orlando, Cleveland, or Indy in the first round.m instead of Philly or Miami.

In order to avoid Philly and a tougher matchup, yes, it would be a potential trade-off of home court in the second round if the Knicks pass them for 2nd and win the first round. But if you’re worried about playing Philly and there’s concerns about Giannis’ health in the first round, that’s not an unreasonable gamble, as I bet they think they could beat NYK in the second round even without home court advantage.

How can they "just beat Orlando Sunday if they want" without Giannis?

I mean, they literally did just that two days ago. Granted, it was in Milwaukee, but it’s still not unreasonable to expect that they can beat them.

The situation is the same regardless if they’re purposefully tanking tonight to give them flexibility or purely doing it for rest. They're very unlikely to beat a motivated OKC team at home anyways, so they’re either (a) purposefully tanking tonight to give them flexibility to decide what to do on Sunday, or (b) calling this game an expected loss anyways and giving their guys rest and hoping they can win if needed on Sunday.

Like most things in life, it’s probably a little bit of (a) and a little bit of (b), but I have a hard time believing this isn’t at least part of their strategic motivations given their history and the context of the injury situation.

Yeah you will see at least 5 times in the playoffs where a team blows a team out at home and then goes and loses on the road. It will probably happen at least once in the playoffs for our beloved Celtics. I am glad you can acknowledge it as least partially motivated by rest even if we disagree how likely/smart it would be for them to try and manipulate the standings. TP for the discussion friend.

[Phantom255x]

I'm watching some other games because honestly at this point who cares about the Celtics one (just fast forward to playoffs healthy please). And yeah, got to say the Sixers just look good. Really not a team I want to face before the ECF. If we play them ECF, so be it.

[radiohead]

Man JT is getting a lot of hate, specially from Knicks fans, since he’s predicted to get first team honors over Brunson.

[celticinorlando]

Sixers might get to the 6 seed. Pacers in some trouble in Cleveland.

[CelticSooner]

Man JT is getting a lot of hate, specially from Knicks fans, since he’s predicted to get first team honors over Brunson.

Same Knick fans that didn’t bother to vote Brunson as an All-star starter???

[celticsclay]

Probably have to slow the Philly hype train. Embid left game and went straight to locker room. Called a timeout to get him off court. Not sure if serious but a concerning sight

[celticinorlando]

Probably have to slow the Philly hype train. Embid left game and went straight to locker room. Called a timeout to get him off court. Not sure if serious but a concerning sight

He’s not near 100 percent.

[tazzmaniac]

Probably have to slow the Philly hype train. Embid left game and went straight to locker room. Called a timeout to get him off court. Not sure if serious but a concerning sight

He’s not near 100 percent.

3 minutes into the 2nd half and he's at 26pts, 10reb, 7ast.  Pretty good for not near 100 percent.   

[celticinorlando]

Probably have to slow the Philly hype train. Embid left game and went straight to locker room. Called a timeout to get him off court. Not sure if serious but a concerning sight

He’s not near 100 percent.

3 minutes into the 2nd half and he's at 26pts, 10reb, 7ast.  Pretty good for not near 100 percent.   

We’re going to find out over next few weeks. Playoffs a different animal.

Still think the knee is going to be an issue at some point.

Bucks just might miss the sixers in round one