Patriots 2023 Season

[Donoghus]

I agree with Moranis on this one. I don’t think you need to have the best receiver to be a top team. A QB, yes. But if not a QB, and you can get value by trading down, trade down and build depth. Second round receivers are fine.

You don't need anything. There are multiple ways to build a team.

MHJ is going #4 to AZ at the latest. If the Patriots like the player, they need to trade up to 2 or take him at 3. Now, you can say that you don't think he's worth it, or you don't like him. I'm commenting on Mo's take that anything else is dumb.

I think Moranis' take is logical, but that's because most of the recent scouting I've seen is lowering the gap between MHJ and Odunze/Nabers.  But, if a team feels MHJ is the next Megatron, I agree that it's a rational choice to take him.

But, if MHJ is Justin Jefferson and Odunze is A.J. Brown and Atlanta offers you an extra #1 and #2, I'd prefer the picks.

How much did Detroit win with Megatron?

About the same as Joey Harrington.

That organization was historically inept for a long time.  The Lions hit on the Johnson pick.  They drafted a hall of famer.  By no fault of Johnson's, the team couldn't do squat around him.

If you have a crap front office, having a franchise guy isn't going to matter that much if you can't build a team around him.

Cardinals drafted Larry Fitzgerald at #3 and were a toe tap away from being Super Bowl champs a few seasons later.

There's more than one way to skin a cat when building a team. 

 

[Goldstar88]

No issues with taking MHJ at #3.

Is it it making the most of the pick?  Probably not. But if they take a player at a position of need who, IMO, has the least bust potential in the draft, so be it.

so you agree that if it isn't making the most of the pick, then it is dumb

This isn't a mid 1st round or later pick. It is a top 3 pick. You have to maximize the value and impact there because teams don't end up with those very often.  I mean the reason Chicago has 1 this year was them maximizing their pick last year when they weren't sold on Young or Stroud. They now get Williams or another haul for Williams because of it.

Moranis, some of us are trying to agree with you preferring not to take Harrison with the #3 pick.  That is different than saying it would be dumb to take Harrison.  Harrison is a solid, safe pick.  Taking a QB is a risk.  Passing on a QB is a risk.  I see the differing opinions as more about risk than anything.

My point of view, which is often the minority view, is that a single player at the WR position does not impact the game enough to warrant using a top pick.  I see a better path to success to get a QB, but if you can't do that, go for depth.  Depth at WR, depth at OL, depth on Defense.  If you can trade #3 for say a first round tackle, a second round WR, and a couple more top 50 picks next year, you are better off.  The only exception is QB, that is the only position where an individual player can make that much impact.

It is a unique position for the Pats.  Because there will be a big name QB prospect available at #3, some team may be willing to overpay for that pick.  If we trade the pick and Maye or Daniels turns out to be a star or even a solid starter, those tackles and second round WRs we get will not look so great in comparison.  But if the QB turns out to be a bust, it will be the Pats fleeced the other team.  I don't think any team would trade up in a big way to take a WR.  ARI may be happy to get Harrison at #4, still a high pick for a WR in my view, but I don't expect them to trade up for him.  Nor do I expect any other team will offer them a bunch to move up to #4 to take him.

Now if a QB falls to #4, there will be plenty of interest.

Do the Chiefs make it to the SB without Kelce or the Niners without CMC? I doubt it. You need elite skill position players to win in the NFL today. Shanahan has made it to the SB with Jimmy G and Purdy. McVay made it to the SB with Goff and won with Stafford. Good, not great QB’s, but they all had elite weapons.

the Chiefs literally had a top 5 WR and traded him for draft picks and then promptly won back to back Superbowls without the top 5 WR.  While the team that acquired said WR hasn't won a playoff game.

While CMC wasn't winning anything in Carolina, the Niners were in a Superbowl with Jimmy G at QB.

They still had Kelce, no? Pretty good at catching the football.. Some believe he is the greatest TE of all time. Like I said, you need elite skill position players to win.

[Phantom255x]

Free Agency is before the Draft, so in theory if the Pats actually got a #1 receiver via FA (Ridley, Evans, Higgins or Pittman) then I think that means there's zero chance they get MHJ at #3 and it's more likely they take a QB that pick. Or if they happen to get a QB via trade (Russell Wilson-type) or maybe even a bridge guy, it might point to them taking MHJ at #3 or trading down for a tackle + more picks

I'm still curious to see how they handle free agency first. They have a ton of cap space, no excuses not to add talent at certain areas even before you make your picks including with the #3 overall.

[green_bballers13]

I agree with Moranis on this one. I don’t think you need to have the best receiver to be a top team. A QB, yes. But if not a QB, and you can get value by trading down, trade down and build depth. Second round receivers are fine.

You don't need anything. There are multiple ways to build a team.

MHJ is going #4 to AZ at the latest. If the Patriots like the player, they need to trade up to 2 or take him at 3. Now, you can say that you don't think he's worth it, or you don't like him. I'm commenting on Mo's take that anything else is dumb.

I think Moranis' take is logical, but that's because most of the recent scouting I've seen is lowering the gap between MHJ and Odunze/Nabers.  But, if a team feels MHJ is the next Megatron, I agree that it's a rational choice to take him.

But, if MHJ is Justin Jefferson and Odunze is A.J. Brown and Atlanta offers you an extra #1 and #2, I'd prefer the picks.

How much did Detroit win with Megatron?

Yikes. Megatron was a first ballot hall of famer. His 5,137 receiving yards from 2011 to 2013 are the most by any player over a three year stretch in NFL history.

That Detroit team made many bad draft decisions, but Megatron was not one of them.

They also selected Matthew Stafford #1, and had many bad years.

You are cherry picking a dominant receiver and saying he was the wrong pick to prove that quarterbacks are the most important position? I agree that quarterbacks are important. I watched Brady play for two decades. This Megatron example is bonkers.

[Moranis]

No issues with taking MHJ at #3.

Is it it making the most of the pick?  Probably not. But if they take a player at a position of need who, IMO, has the least bust potential in the draft, so be it.

so you agree that if it isn't making the most of the pick, then it is dumb

This isn't a mid 1st round or later pick. It is a top 3 pick. You have to maximize the value and impact there because teams don't end up with those very often.  I mean the reason Chicago has 1 this year was them maximizing their pick last year when they weren't sold on Young or Stroud. They now get Williams or another haul for Williams because of it.

Moranis, some of us are trying to agree with you preferring not to take Harrison with the #3 pick.  That is different than saying it would be dumb to take Harrison.  Harrison is a solid, safe pick.  Taking a QB is a risk.  Passing on a QB is a risk.  I see the differing opinions as more about risk than anything.

My point of view, which is often the minority view, is that a single player at the WR position does not impact the game enough to warrant using a top pick.  I see a better path to success to get a QB, but if you can't do that, go for depth.  Depth at WR, depth at OL, depth on Defense.  If you can trade #3 for say a first round tackle, a second round WR, and a couple more top 50 picks next year, you are better off.  The only exception is QB, that is the only position where an individual player can make that much impact.

It is a unique position for the Pats.  Because there will be a big name QB prospect available at #3, some team may be willing to overpay for that pick.  If we trade the pick and Maye or Daniels turns out to be a star or even a solid starter, those tackles and second round WRs we get will not look so great in comparison.  But if the QB turns out to be a bust, it will be the Pats fleeced the other team.  I don't think any team would trade up in a big way to take a WR.  ARI may be happy to get Harrison at #4, still a high pick for a WR in my view, but I don't expect them to trade up for him.  Nor do I expect any other team will offer them a bunch to move up to #4 to take him.

Now if a QB falls to #4, there will be plenty of interest.

Do the Chiefs make it to the SB without Kelce or the Niners without CMC? I doubt it. You need elite skill position players to win in the NFL today. Shanahan has made it to the SB with Jimmy G and Purdy. McVay made it to the SB with Goff and won with Stafford. Good, not great QB’s, but they all had elite weapons.

the Chiefs literally had a top 5 WR and traded him for draft picks and then promptly won back to back Superbowls without the top 5 WR.  While the team that acquired said WR hasn't won a playoff game.

While CMC wasn't winning anything in Carolina, the Niners were in a Superbowl with Jimmy G at QB.

They still had Kelce, no? Pretty good at catching the football.. Some believe he is the greatest TE of all time. Like I said, you need elite skill position players to win.

Sure and he was a 3rd round pick while their top WR was a rookie 2nd round pick.  Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Kadaris Toney, who they didn't even play in the Superbowl were the only 1st round pick from the skill positions, aside of course from Mahomes who was the only top 10 pick from the skill groups.  They spent their late 1st rounders mostly on defensive players.

[Moranis]

I agree with Moranis on this one. I don’t think you need to have the best receiver to be a top team. A QB, yes. But if not a QB, and you can get value by trading down, trade down and build depth. Second round receivers are fine.

You don't need anything. There are multiple ways to build a team.

MHJ is going #4 to AZ at the latest. If the Patriots like the player, they need to trade up to 2 or take him at 3. Now, you can say that you don't think he's worth it, or you don't like him. I'm commenting on Mo's take that anything else is dumb.

I think Moranis' take is logical, but that's because most of the recent scouting I've seen is lowering the gap between MHJ and Odunze/Nabers.  But, if a team feels MHJ is the next Megatron, I agree that it's a rational choice to take him.

But, if MHJ is Justin Jefferson and Odunze is A.J. Brown and Atlanta offers you an extra #1 and #2, I'd prefer the picks.

How much did Detroit win with Megatron?

About the same as Joey Harrington.

That organization was historically inept for a long time.  The Lions hit on the Johnson pick.  They drafted a hall of famer.  By no fault of Johnson's, the team couldn't do squat around him.

If you have a crap front office, having a franchise guy isn't going to matter that much if you can't build a team around him.

Cardinals drafted Larry Fitzgerald at #3 and were a toe tap away from being Super Bowl champs a few seasons later.

There's more than one way to skin a cat when building a team.

Megatron was a great player, but for as great as he was they went 0-16 his 2nd year after he only started about 2/3 of the games as a rookie (on a 7-9 team).  The Lions never could capitalize on his talent and I do wonder if they had taken Joe Thomas instead of Megatron, might they have won more with Stafford.  WR's really don't do all that much when it comes to winning.  And because they are so expensive, they are perhaps the position with the least amount of value.  It is also a position where you can get franchise level players much later much more often.  If you look at the top WR's in the game.  AJ Brown 51st pick, Tyreke Hill 165th, Justin Jefferson 22nd, CeeDee Lamb 17th, Kenan Allen 76th.  Really the only true top level guy that was even a top 15 pick was Ja'Marr Chase who went 5th.   

[green_bballers13]

I agree with Moranis on this one. I don’t think you need to have the best receiver to be a top team. A QB, yes. But if not a QB, and you can get value by trading down, trade down and build depth. Second round receivers are fine.

You don't need anything. There are multiple ways to build a team.

MHJ is going #4 to AZ at the latest. If the Patriots like the player, they need to trade up to 2 or take him at 3. Now, you can say that you don't think he's worth it, or you don't like him. I'm commenting on Mo's take that anything else is dumb.

I think Moranis' take is logical, but that's because most of the recent scouting I've seen is lowering the gap between MHJ and Odunze/Nabers.  But, if a team feels MHJ is the next Megatron, I agree that it's a rational choice to take him.

But, if MHJ is Justin Jefferson and Odunze is A.J. Brown and Atlanta offers you an extra #1 and #2, I'd prefer the picks.

How much did Detroit win with Megatron?

About the same as Joey Harrington.

That organization was historically inept for a long time.  The Lions hit on the Johnson pick.  They drafted a hall of famer.  By no fault of Johnson's, the team couldn't do squat around him.

If you have a crap front office, having a franchise guy isn't going to matter that much if you can't build a team around him.

Cardinals drafted Larry Fitzgerald at #3 and were a toe tap away from being Super Bowl champs a few seasons later.

There's more than one way to skin a cat when building a team.

Megatron was a great player, but for as great as he was they went 0-16 his 2nd year after he only started about 2/3 of the games as a rookie (on a 7-9 team).  The Lions never could capitalize on his talent and I do wonder if they had taken Joe Thomas instead of Megatron, might they have won more with Stafford.  WR's really don't do all that much when it comes to winning.  And because they are so expensive, they are perhaps the position with the least amount of value.  It is also a position where you can get franchise level players much later much more often.  If you look at the top WR's in the game.  AJ Brown 51st pick, Tyreke Hill 165th, Justin Jefferson 22nd, CeeDee Lamb 17th, Kenan Allen 76th.  Really the only true top level guy that was even a top 15 pick was Ja'Marr Chase who went 5th.   

Jamarcus Russell was the first pick. People agree with you, and you're still making points that are easy to refute.

Oakland picked the wrong QB and it continued to set them back. They would have been better off with either Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson.

I'm not saying Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels will become Jamarcus Russell. I'm saying that they aren't as much as a sure thing as MHJ. Lamar Jackson would love MHJ. And yes, I favor a trade back.

[Roy H.]

There's no surefire way to rebuild, but if the Patriots are going to draft a QB, they need to have weapons and protection around him.

It's rational to take Daniels or Maye at #3.  It's rational to trade back, and draft a WR or OT.  But, it's also rational to draft a building block WR or OT at #3, and not risk missing a guy you see as a sure thing.

If the Pats come out of the draft with MHJ in the first and Penix or Nix in the second, who's to say that that's a bad decision?  Again, I'd try to trade back with Atlanta and get another premium pick or two, but the simple fact is that some players will be better than others, and the higher you pick the best chance you have of getting the guy you want.

[Vermont Green]

Jamarcus Russell was the first pick. People agree with you, and you're still making points that are easy to refute.

Oakland picked the wrong QB and it continued to set them back. They would have been better off with either Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson.

I'm not saying Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels will become Jamarcus Russell. I'm saying that they aren't as much as a sure thing as MHJ. Lamar Jackson would love MHJ. And yes, I favor a trade back.

This is a good example of how risky it is to take a QB with a high pick.  Teams take that risk because the potential reward is so high.  It is absolutely true that if the Pats take a QB at #3 and he turns out to be a bust, it will set them back

The difference between that Calvin Johnson draft and this draft is that there will still be QBs available at #2 and #3.  Teams may be willing to trade up aggressively for the pick because they can get a top QB prospect.  Teams will not likely trade up as aggressively for a WR at #2 or #3 and there were probably not teams trying to trade up for Calvin Johnson.  Based on the players available in the Johnson draft, taking him at #2 was a reasonable pick.  There probably was not much opportunity to trade back and get a haul of picks.

In the case of this draft, because there are QBs in play, the Pats may be able to trade back and get a haul.  I think that will lead to more value than taking Harrison.  Take a QB or trade back.  Everyone has a different opinion on the value of a top receiver but I just don't see it.  In the 20 years of domination, the Pats had 1 top receiver for 1 season.  But they always had good receiver depth, a good OL and of course Tom Brady.

We can probably get 2 firsts and 2 seconds for #3 or something like that.  I like 2 first round tackles and 2 second round WRs over 1 WR, no matter how good.

[Goldstar88]

There's no surefire way to rebuild, but if the Patriots are going to draft a QB, they need to have weapons and protection around him.

It's rational to take Daniels or Maye at #3.  It's rational to trade back, and draft a WR or OT.  But, it's also rational to draft a building block WR or OT at #3, and not risk missing a guy you see as a sure thing.

If the Pats come out of the draft with MHJ in the first and Penix or Nix in the second, who's to say that that's a bad decision?  Again, I'd try to trade back with Atlanta and get another premium pick or two, but the simple fact is that some players will be better than others, and the higher you pick the best chance you have of getting the guy you want.

Good post, Roy. I think it’s also important to keep in mind that this is more than likely a multi year rebuild. So next years draft and possibly the year after will also be important. I doubt the Pats are able to turn things around in one season.

[Vermont Green]

It is interesting.  I went back to see exactly what the 49ers gave up to move up to #3 in 2021 to take Trey Lance.  It was 3 firsts and a third.  The actual players turned out to be:

2021  #12  Micah Parsons LB
2022  #22  Cole Strange G
2022 #101 Channing Tindall LB
2023  #29  Bryan Bresee DT

Yes, Cole Strange came by the 49ers pick that eventually made it to the Pats.  So would you rather have that or would you rather have 1 top WR prospect?  Maybe a team that is already set with plenty of depth would rather have that one cherry on top WR but the Pats need depth.

If Trey Lance had turned out to be Mahomes, the 49ers would be happy with the trade.  But there is no WR ever, not Randy Moss, not anyone, who would have been worth that trade.  The 49ers would never have given up that for a WR but they did for a QB.

[Goldstar88]

It is interesting.  I went back to see exactly what the 49ers gave up to move up to #3 in 2021 to take Trey Lance.  It was 3 firsts and a third.  The actual players turned out to be:

2021  #12  Micah Parsons LB
2022  #22  Cole Strange G
2022 #101 Channing Tindall LB
2023  #29  Bryan Bresee DT

Yes, Cole Strange came by the 49ers pick that eventually made it to the Pats.  So would you rather have that or would you rather have 1 top WR prospect?  Maybe a team that is already set with plenty of depth would rather have that one cherry on top WR but the Pats need depth.

If Trey Lance had turned out to be Mahomes, the 49ers would be happy with the trade.  But there is no WR ever, not Randy Moss, not anyone, who would have been worth that trade.  The 49ers would never have given up that for a WR but they did for a QB.

That also might go down as the worst trade of all time considering the capital that was given up for a guy that was a long shot to begin with and a complete bust so far in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect other teams to make a similar trade after seeing how foolish that move made SF look.

[Vermont Green]

It is interesting.  I went back to see exactly what the 49ers gave up to move up to #3 in 2021 to take Trey Lance.  It was 3 firsts and a third.  The actual players turned out to be:

2021  #12  Micah Parsons LB
2022  #22  Cole Strange G
2022 #101 Channing Tindall LB
2023  #29  Bryan Bresee DT

Yes, Cole Strange came by the 49ers pick that eventually made it to the Pats.  So would you rather have that or would you rather have 1 top WR prospect?  Maybe a team that is already set with plenty of depth would rather have that one cherry on top WR but the Pats need depth.

If Trey Lance had turned out to be Mahomes, the 49ers would be happy with the trade.  But there is no WR ever, not Randy Moss, not anyone, who would have been worth that trade.  The 49ers would never have given up that for a WR but they did for a QB.

That also might go down as the worst trade of all time considering the capital that was given up for a guy that was a long shot to begin with and a complete bust so far in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect other teams to make a similar trade after seeing how foolish that move made SF look.

The Panthers gave up 2023 first-round (No. 9) and second-round (61) picks, their 2024 first-round pick (currently No. 1) and receiver DJ Moore (their 2018 first-rounder).  This was for the #1 pick, not #3 but the point is that it was also for a QB.  They gave up a #1 receiver and a bunch of picks for a QB.  So about the same at least as 3-firsts and a second.

If there were no high end QB prospects expected at #3, the Pats would have way less opportunity to trade down and in that case, would understandably be looking more seriously at drafting Harrison.  Teams may be gun shy based on the recent big QB trade-up trades, but I think the Pats will likely be offered some pretty good value for this pick.  If they don't like the QBs (and maybe they do like one or more of them), they should trade the pick to someone that does, not take Harrison or a tackle.

[Moranis]

It is interesting.  I went back to see exactly what the 49ers gave up to move up to #3 in 2021 to take Trey Lance.  It was 3 firsts and a third.  The actual players turned out to be:

2021  #12  Micah Parsons LB
2022  #22  Cole Strange G
2022 #101 Channing Tindall LB
2023  #29  Bryan Bresee DT

Yes, Cole Strange came by the 49ers pick that eventually made it to the Pats.  So would you rather have that or would you rather have 1 top WR prospect?  Maybe a team that is already set with plenty of depth would rather have that one cherry on top WR but the Pats need depth.

If Trey Lance had turned out to be Mahomes, the 49ers would be happy with the trade.  But there is no WR ever, not Randy Moss, not anyone, who would have been worth that trade.  The 49ers would never have given up that for a WR but they did for a QB.

That also might go down as the worst trade of all time considering the capital that was given up for a guy that was a long shot to begin with and a complete bust so far in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect other teams to make a similar trade after seeing how foolish that move made SF look.

The Panthers gave up 2023 first-round (No. 9) and second-round (61) picks, their 2024 first-round pick (currently No. 1) and receiver DJ Moore (their 2018 first-rounder).  This was for the #1 pick, not #3 but the point is that it was also for a QB.  They gave up a #1 receiver and a bunch of picks for a QB.  So about the same at least as 3-firsts and a second.

If there were no high end QB prospects expected at #3, the Pats would have way less opportunity to trade down and in that case, would understandably be looking more seriously at drafting Harrison.  Teams may be gun shy based on the recent big QB trade-up trades, but I think the Pats will likely be offered some pretty good value for this pick.  If they don't like the QBs (and maybe they do like one or more of them), they should trade the pick to someone that does, not take Harrison or a tackle.

and depending on where they end up, they may get the tackle they like the best anyway

[Roy H.]

It is interesting.  I went back to see exactly what the 49ers gave up to move up to #3 in 2021 to take Trey Lance.  It was 3 firsts and a third.  The actual players turned out to be:

2021  #12  Micah Parsons LB
2022  #22  Cole Strange G
2022 #101 Channing Tindall LB
2023  #29  Bryan Bresee DT

Yes, Cole Strange came by the 49ers pick that eventually made it to the Pats.  So would you rather have that or would you rather have 1 top WR prospect?  Maybe a team that is already set with plenty of depth would rather have that one cherry on top WR but the Pats need depth.

If Trey Lance had turned out to be Mahomes, the 49ers would be happy with the trade.  But there is no WR ever, not Randy Moss, not anyone, who would have been worth that trade.  The 49ers would never have given up that for a WR but they did for a QB.

That also might go down as the worst trade of all time considering the capital that was given up for a guy that was a long shot to begin with and a complete bust so far in the NFL. I wouldn’t expect other teams to make a similar trade after seeing how foolish that move made SF look.

The Panthers gave up 2023 first-round (No. 9) and second-round (61) picks, their 2024 first-round pick (currently No. 1) and receiver DJ Moore (their 2018 first-rounder).  This was for the #1 pick, not #3 but the point is that it was also for a QB.  They gave up a #1 receiver and a bunch of picks for a QB.  So about the same at least as 3-firsts and a second.

If there were no high end QB prospects expected at #3, the Pats would have way less opportunity to trade down and in that case, would understandably be looking more seriously at drafting Harrison.  Teams may be gun shy based on the recent big QB trade-up trades, but I think the Pats will likely be offered some pretty good value for this pick.  If they don't like the QBs (and maybe they do like one or more of them), they should trade the pick to someone that does, not take Harrison or a tackle.

Carolina also gave up a 2025 second in that deal.  Carolina also allegedly preferred including a 2025 #1 into of Moore, who the Bears insisted on.

The Pats won't do that well, but they might be able to slide down 5 or 6 slots and end up with a future first and a second, or even better. 

I've got to think that one of Odunze / Nabers / Alt + #1 + #2 > MHJ