Woj: Horford Agrees to Extension

[tonydelk]

Great to have AL for a few more years.  It was expected and I think someone in the media posted 10 to 12 per year over 2 years with AL.  Teams with cap space are bad and this salary is higher the the MLE. 

Now on to Grant.  You typically fill his spot with a draft pick.    With the cs trading their last 3 this has not happened.  Normally you let a role player like Grant go because he will make more then the team can afford.  Grant is a good player but I just don't see his role on this team garnering a 12+m per year contract.  He may get it.  Just not from the cs.  I am still in the minority who think he's gone after this year and may get moved in the right deal.

[#1P4P]

Al has 5 all star games and just 1 3rd Team All NBA and 1 2nd Team All Defense.  Not good enough for HOF even if Boston wins a title, as he will be at best the 5th best player on the team.

The basketball Hall of Fame, unlike baseball and football, includes non-professional accomplishments as well.  Accordingly his being a centerpiece of two NCAA championships will be given weight, and I think will get him in.

It might’ve been better for him if the basketball HOF were like baseball’s because his advanced metrics would hold more weight. In baseball, WAR is valued to the point that when a player passes a certain WAR threshold, he’s automatically in the running for the HOF (barring major scandal).

Al’s 68th and climbing in VORP (Top 45 seems close to a lock and is within reach for him); 85th and climbing in Win Shares (Top 60 seems close to a lock and within reach); and the 2 NCAA Championships.

His HOF candidacy will be a test for HOF voters. What Al lacks in individual accolades and total counting stats, he makes up for in advanced stats and overall team value and performance. Al, in his 15th season, should’ve gotten an All Defense nod.

He needs to be a contributor to a Championship team to have real momentum on this and with this team being historically great, it is certainly within reach.

[celticsclay]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

[sgrogan]

Brian Robb pointed this out:

2023-24 Celtics under contract

Jayson Tatum: $32.6 million
Jaylen Brown: $30.7 million
Malcolm Brogdon: $22.5 million
Marcus Smart: $18.5 million
Derrick White: $18.1 million
Robert Williams: $11.8 million
Al Horford: $10 million
Danilo Gallinari: $6.8 million (player option)
Payton Pritchard: $4 million
Luke Kornet: $2.4 million (non-guaranteed)
Sam Hauser: $1.9 million (non-guaranteed)

That's a nice spot to be in.  We've only got four free agents, and I've got to think that two of them will be gone soon:

Free agents:

Grant Williams (restricted)
Justin Jackson
Blake Griffin
Noah Vonleh

Total committed salary (assuming Gallo opts in):  $159,216,302

Theoretically, if we let all the free agents go, we could get under the luxury tax.  More realistically, if Grant gets around $13 million, we'll be right around this year's $175,627,204 allocated salary.

But the cap, and luxury tax threshold, are projected to rise from $150M to $162M
So we could
Sign Grant for $14M
Use the TP-MLE $7M
Sign our 1st pick $2.5
Sign a vet-min $2M
Total would be $185M. That would be $13M against the tax vs. $25M this year.

Maybe some tax guru can figure if the total is lower?

23M?

185 vs 162 = 23
175 vs 150 = 25
Thanks

So
175 + 60(tax) = 235
185 + 55(tax) = 240?

more saving for us -- I don't believe we have our first rounder this year

So subtract the rookie and add another Vet min
184 + 53(tax) = 237?

And I don't see a contract that's not movable. I don't think we would have to pay a 2nd to dump anyone.

[SHAQATTACK]

Quality people’s are important too,   youth do the most rowing and others steady the ship . 

Celtics are so lucky to have him around .

[Roy H.]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

Who would you start in front of him?

Would you go small, with Timelord / Tatum?  Or are you thinking Grant?

I really learned to love the two-big lineup last year.  That's still my preferred way to go, but we can outmatch most teams either way.

[#1P4P]

Great having Al on here for 2 more seasons. I was adamant on him extending at a discount and retiring as a Celtic. Those two seasons on the Sixers and Thunder reminded him how much better it was here; and it was telling that reacquiring him was Brad’s first move as a GM that the feeling is mutual.

As far as Grant, him being a young, strong, versatile defender, elite offensive efficiency, and overall durability make him a valuable member of this team. His low usage (team play) and lack of production will keep his salary affordable. I see Brad doing as much as he can to keep him and this team go as high as $16M AAV.

[tonydelk]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

Who would you start in front of him?

Would you go small, with Timelord / Tatum?  Or are you thinking Grant?

I really learned to love the two-big lineup last year.  That's still my preferred way to go, but we can outmatch most teams either way.

Orlando seems like a logical trade partner.  They have bol bol, Wendell Carter, Jonathan isaac,, banchero , bamba and wager. 

Any one of isaac, Bamba or Carter would be great fits on this team.  Isaac makes 17.4m and hasn't played in 2 years so he'd be the hardest to move but when healthy he was an ascending player. 

[celticsclay]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

Who would you start in front of him?

Would you go small, with Timelord / Tatum?  Or are you thinking Grant?

I really learned to love the two-big lineup last year.  That's still my preferred way to go, but we can outmatch most teams either way.

Possibly grant, or possibly a free agent. I just don’t like the idea of starting him at that age when we really need him in the playoffs. I get he can be a starter that plays less minutes, but I still think it ends up in at least a few more minutes. Plus if you are making him like an honorary starter that only plays the first 4 minutes it can just mess up the flow and matchups.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

Who would you start in front of him?

Would you go small, with Timelord / Tatum?  Or are you thinking Grant?

I really learned to love the two-big lineup last year.  That's still my preferred way to go, but we can outmatch most teams either way.

Possibly grant, or possibly a free agent. I just don’t like the idea of starting him at that age when we really need him in the playoffs. I get he can be a starter that plays less minutes, but I still think it ends up in at least a few more minutes. Plus if you are making him like an honorary starter that only plays the first 4 minutes it can just mess up the flow and matchups.

I agree to this. He could. There are a lot of teams that would love to have the luxury of starting Al Horford.

But I do think it is preferable to have a different guy in that role sooner rather than later. I don't think Grant is that guy either, but maybe I'm wrong.

[Celtics2021]

Chris Forsberg
@ChrisForsberg_
·
3m
Celtics now have their starting frontcourt of Al Horford and Robert Williams signed for a total of $21 million next season.

Combined they would be the 62nd most expensive contract currently on the books next season.

Thrilled with signing but don’t think al should really start next year.

Who would you start in front of him?

Would you go small, with Timelord / Tatum?  Or are you thinking Grant?

I really learned to love the two-big lineup last year.  That's still my preferred way to go, but we can outmatch most teams either way.

I hope we get a good look at a Smart/White/Brown/Tatum/Rob lineup for a bit this season once Rob is back.  Al's deal is reserve-level -- I think the plan is for him to come off the bench at some point, be it later this season or next year, and the double-big lineup used sparingly.  Tatum has been the starting 4 and closing 4 for the majority of the season to date.  That has worked very well with Al, and I'd like to see it with Rob.  This would let Rob and Al tandem for the center, limiting both of their minutes, with Grant at the 4, sometimes pairing with Tatum, sometimes backing him up.

The double-big lineup could make occasional appearances depending on match-ups, but I don't think Rob nor aging Al are durable enough for them to both be in the primary starting lineup.

[Neurotic Guy]

I am surprised Horford took so little money. I would have valued him at around $20mil per season. Even with a discount maybe two years $30mil. He left a lotta money on the table.

Fair dues to him.

It's funny though isn't it?  A discount at 20M over 2 years.

Of course, it's all relative.  Glad to have him here over the final years of his career.  I wonder if there is a tacit or maybe explicit agreement that he not be traded. 

[dannyboy35]

  It’s crazy how Al was that much of a poor fit in Philly. Still looking back it SHOULD have worked out better.

[Neurotic Guy]

Great to have AL for a few more years.  It was expected and I think someone in the media posted 10 to 12 per year over 2 years with AL.  Teams with cap space are bad and this salary is higher the the MLE. 

Now on to Grant.  You typically fill his spot with a draft pick.    With the cs trading their last 3 this has not happened.  Normally you let a role player like Grant go because he will make more then the team can afford.  Grant is a good player but I just don't see his role on this team garnering a 12+m per year contract.  He may get it.  Just not from the cs.  I am still in the minority who think he's gone after this year and may get moved in the right deal.

Despite clearly feeling free to complain this year which he does now incessantly, I still like the guy. I perceive him to be a personality that helps make the team what it is.  That said, I believed more in his value early in the year but am less concerned now about losing him/ trading him.

[dannyboy35]

   I don’t even know who to HOPE for at replacing Al/ Rob insurance.
 Do you guys have some names you daydream about that you also think are maybe possible?