Poll on Brown and Durant

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

[keevsnick]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right. Checking it now BB reference has him at 28.5 million in his last year, a 120% raise of that is 34.2 million.

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right.

Probably the difference between incentives and not then.  Jaylen’s incentives in his current deal all have to be included in the next deal, with commensurate increases.  And again, he’s earned a good chunk of those incentives to date, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

[keevsnick]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right.

Probably the difference between incentives and not then.  Jaylen’s incentives in his current deal all have to be included in the next deal, with commensurate increases.  And again, he’s earned a good chunk of those incentives to date, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

Sure, but incentives aren't guaranteed money and that more or less what matters. It doesn't really matter whether the difference in year 1 is 6 or 4 or 2 million or whatever, because if he makes all NBA next year the total difference in guaranteed money is 150+ million. And he isn't passing that up that opportunity to sign a below market deal a year early. It just doesn't make much sense to take less than your worth AND forgo a chance at the supermax.  Especially when you already signed what ended up being a team friendly deal the first time around.

Not that there's literally no chance, but there's a reason every report about his extension this summer ends with "he's unlikely to accept." Because max players very rarely take less than their max earlier than they have to.

[Vermont Green]

I tried to do a pretty careful calculation of an extensions vs. a max contract with the Celtics vs. a max contract with a new team.  It is hard to get to apples to apples because one contract would be 3 years, one 5 years, and one 4 years but I normalized by looking at only the first 3 years:

Extension:          $119,687,814
Celtics Max:        $129,856,000
New Team Max:  $126,100,000

The extension assume the "likely" incentives and starts at about $36.7M, which is 120% over his last year of the current contract.  The extension could be a little higher if he achieves his unlikely incentives (MVP, All NBA).  The two Max contracts start at $40M which is based on something I read as the expected Max number by then (but this is just a guess).  The extension and the Celtics Max increase by 8% per year and the Regular Max increases by 5%.  The bottom line is that after 3 years, he would be about $10M in the hole taking an extension over a Celtics Max deal and would be about $6M in the hole over a regular max deal.  This is not exact as there are assumptions but I feel this is a pretty fair estimate.

With the extension, he would be a UFA in 2027/28 and probably could sign for more than what even a Celtics max would be so he would start to make up the difference.  At that point he could sign up to whatever the max is for a player with his tenure.  This would be (or at least is expected to be) more than the 4th year of either of the other contract options.  I was under the impression that the extension would be a lot less but after looking at the numbers, it is closer than I realized after the 3 years and he may well make that amount back up over the course of his next contract.

He may still chose to take this to UFA but he can get a pretty good deal in any case.

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right.

Probably the difference between incentives and not then.  Jaylen’s incentives in his current deal all have to be included in the next deal, with commensurate increases.  And again, he’s earned a good chunk of those incentives to date, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

Sure, but incentives aren't guaranteed money and that more or less what matters. It doesn't really matter whether the difference in year 1 is 6 or 4 or 2 million or whatever, because if he makes all NBA next year the total difference in guaranteed money is 150+ million. And he isn't passing that up that opportunity to sign a below market deal a year early. It just doesn't make much sense to take less than your worth AND forgo a chance at the supermax.  Especially when you already signed what ended up being a team friendly deal the first time around.

Not that there's literally no chance, but there's a reason every report about his extension this summer ends with "he's unlikely to accept." Because max players very rarely take less than their max earlier than they have to.

Incentives absolutely do matter.  They are not guaranteed, true.  But they are money that Brown is capable of earning and is, in fact, likely to mostly earn based on past precedent.  They would be (by rule) present in any offer the Celtics present this year or next, and Brown’s team would evaluate the likelihood that he would earn them in a future deal.

The supermax is a different thing, and I put that in my original post.    I don’t know how likely Jaylen and his advisers think it is that he’ll become supermax eligible.  Is it 50%?  80%?  20%?  What are the odds he suffers a significant injury that reduces the likelihood of a max deal?  How much does Jaylen value security over maximum dollar value?  Would Jaylen rather re-enter free agency when he’s 30 or 32?  There are a lot of variables none of us know, and presumably these and others are things that he and his team are working through and will continue to do so if an extension offer is presented.  But the difference isn’t as vast as Marks makes it seem.

I didn’t say it was likely that Jaylen would sign an extension, but again, the numbers can come out a lot close than they might appear on the surface, and while it might not be likely he sign an extension, we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility out of hand.

From a long-term cap and tax perspective, I actually think the best thing for both sides is that Jaylen becomes supermax eligible and signs a 5-year 35% max deal that starts the year before the new media deal goes in place, so that he can feel like he’s fairly compensated but as far as the Celtics are concerned, his 35% number would be against a pre-spiked cap so they aren’t burdened by a player making 35%+ of the cap while providing a little under that in value.  But I think the next-best thing for both sides is an extension this summer with a player option in the last year.  This lets Jaylen enter free agency eligible for the 35% max in a new CBA after the cap spike, which is good for him, and gives the Celtics Jaylen at below max salary through his 20s, which is good for them as they manage their tax bill and/or enhance his trade value.  Because the supermax is an unknown, it’s possible that negotiations wind up there instead.  If Jaylen were traded today, I absolutely think he’d sign such an extension with the Nets (he’d be supermax ineligible), as opposed to waiting for free agency.

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right.

Probably the difference between incentives and not then.  Jaylen’s incentives in his current deal all have to be included in the next deal, with commensurate increases.  And again, he’s earned a good chunk of those incentives to date, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

Sure, but incentives aren't guaranteed money and that more or less what matters. It doesn't really matter whether the difference in year 1 is 6 or 4 or 2 million or whatever, because if he makes all NBA next year the total difference in guaranteed money is 150+ million. And he isn't passing that up that opportunity to sign a below market deal a year early. It just doesn't make much sense to take less than your worth AND forgo a chance at the supermax.  Especially when you already signed what ended up being a team friendly deal the first time around.

Not that there's literally no chance, but there's a reason every report about his extension this summer ends with "he's unlikely to accept." Because max players very rarely take less than their max earlier than they have to.

Incentives absolutely do matter.  They are not guaranteed, true.  But they are money that Brown is capable of earning and is, in fact, likely to mostly earn based on past precedent.  They would be (by rule) present in any offer the Celtics present this year or next, and Brown’s team would evaluate the likelihood that he would earn them in a future deal.

The supermax is a different thing, and I put that in my original post.    I don’t know how likely Jaylen and his advisers think it is that he’ll become supermax eligible.  Is it 50%?  80%?  20%?  What are the odds he suffers a significant injury that reduces the likelihood of a max deal?  How much does Jaylen value security over maximum dollar value?  Would Jaylen rather re-enter free agency when he’s 30 or 32?  There are a lot of variables none of us know, and presumably these and others are things that he and his team are working through and will continue to do so if an extension offer is presented.  But the difference isn’t as vast as Marks makes it seem.

I didn’t say it was likely that Jaylen would sign an extension, but again, the numbers can come out a lot close than they might appear on the surface, and while it might not be likely he sign an extension, we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility out of hand.

From a long-term cap and tax perspective, I actually think the best thing for both sides is that Jaylen becomes supermax eligible and signs a 5-year 35% max deal that starts the year before the new media deal goes in place, so that he can feel like he’s fairly compensated but as far as the Celtics are concerned, his 35% number would be against a pre-spiked cap so they aren’t burdened by a player making 35%+ of the cap while providing a little under that in value.  But I think the next-best thing for both sides is an extension this summer with a player option in the last year.  This lets Jaylen enter free agency eligible for the 35% max in a new CBA after the cap spike, which is good for him, and gives the Celtics Jaylen at below max salary through his 20s, which is good for them as they manage their tax bill and/or enhance his trade value.  Because the supermax is an unknown, it’s possible that negotiations wind up there instead.  If Jaylen were traded today, I absolutely think he’d sign such an extension with the Nets (he’d be supermax ineligible), as opposed to waiting for free agency.

To clarify the math, here are some options for Brown.  We'll assume a salary cap of $135 million in 2024, because that gets to $40.5 million in year one of a 30% max deal, which is near Marks' estimate of $40 million per posters above.  We're comparing against a base case of a 5-year, 30% max deal with the Celtics, so all possibilities will be 5 years in length.  We'll also assume a $171 million cap in 2025, after the new media deal takes into effect.  That assumption comes from here. 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2021/09/19/with-new-tv-deal-looming-nba-teams-could-spend-big-on-extensions/?sh=77a8e6ea3e85
I don't think it's a crazy assumption, especially considering it's based off of lower cap estimates for this season and next season.

Sign a 30% max deal in 2024 - $234.9 million

Qualify for and sign the supermax -- $274.1 million

Sign a 2+1 extension, opt out after year 2, sign a 35% max deal not with Celtics (eligible because of 10 years of service) -- $259.7-$268 million (lower number is no incentives reached, upper number is all incentives reached)

Sign a 2+1 extension, opt out after year 2, sign a 35% max with Celtics -- $265.1-$273.3 million (depending on incentives)

If he bets on himself this year and earns the supermax, he makes between $1 million and 9 million more over 5 years than he does if he signs an extension and opts out when he's eligible for a 35% max to resign with the Celtics.  That's not a huge amount.  If he misses the supermax and just goes for free agency at the 30% max, he gets substantially less than in the other scenarios.  The option gives him some injury insurance, as well as the ability to wait for a new CBA if he thinks it would be better to sign a contract under new rules rather than old ones (as someone high up in the player's association, he will have a better idea than most if that makes sense).

[keevsnick]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I think your numbers are wrong.  An extension now would cap him at $38.2 million in 2024.  Less than the 30% max, yes, but not substantially so.  I guess there’s a difference with incentives, but Brown has earned the majority of his incentives in his contract so far, so it’s still not as large a difference as you make it out to be.  And yes, the total value is less because the contract is shorter, but with a pending cap spike that will occur in the middle of Brown’s next deal due to new media rights, he’s likely to prefer something shorter anyway.  Average annual value is definitely a more fair comparison.

Its not my number's Bobby marks tweeted it. I assume he's right.

Probably the difference between incentives and not then.  Jaylen’s incentives in his current deal all have to be included in the next deal, with commensurate increases.  And again, he’s earned a good chunk of those incentives to date, so we shouldn’t ignore them.

Sure, but incentives aren't guaranteed money and that more or less what matters. It doesn't really matter whether the difference in year 1 is 6 or 4 or 2 million or whatever, because if he makes all NBA next year the total difference in guaranteed money is 150+ million. And he isn't passing that up that opportunity to sign a below market deal a year early. It just doesn't make much sense to take less than your worth AND forgo a chance at the supermax.  Especially when you already signed what ended up being a team friendly deal the first time around.

Not that there's literally no chance, but there's a reason every report about his extension this summer ends with "he's unlikely to accept." Because max players very rarely take less than their max earlier than they have to.

Incentives absolutely do matter.  They are not guaranteed, true.  But they are money that Brown is capable of earning and is, in fact, likely to mostly earn based on past precedent.  They would be (by rule) present in any offer the Celtics present this year or next, and Brown’s team would evaluate the likelihood that he would earn them in a future deal.

The supermax is a different thing, and I put that in my original post.    I don’t know how likely Jaylen and his advisers think it is that he’ll become supermax eligible.  Is it 50%?  80%?  20%?  What are the odds he suffers a significant injury that reduces the likelihood of a max deal?  How much does Jaylen value security over maximum dollar value?  Would Jaylen rather re-enter free agency when he’s 30 or 32?  There are a lot of variables none of us know, and presumably these and others are things that he and his team are working through and will continue to do so if an extension offer is presented.  But the difference isn’t as vast as Marks makes it seem.

I didn’t say it was likely that Jaylen would sign an extension, but again, the numbers can come out a lot close than they might appear on the surface, and while it might not be likely he sign an extension, we shouldn’t dismiss the possibility out of hand.

From a long-term cap and tax perspective, I actually think the best thing for both sides is that Jaylen becomes supermax eligible and signs a 5-year 35% max deal that starts the year before the new media deal goes in place, so that he can feel like he’s fairly compensated but as far as the Celtics are concerned, his 35% number would be against a pre-spiked cap so they aren’t burdened by a player making 35%+ of the cap while providing a little under that in value.  But I think the next-best thing for both sides is an extension this summer with a player option in the last year.  This lets Jaylen enter free agency eligible for the 35% max in a new CBA after the cap spike, which is good for him, and gives the Celtics Jaylen at below max salary through his 20s, which is good for them as they manage their tax bill and/or enhance his trade value.  Because the supermax is an unknown, it’s possible that negotiations wind up there instead.  If Jaylen were traded today, I absolutely think he’d sign such an extension with the Nets (he’d be supermax ineligible), as opposed to waiting for free agency.

To clarify the math, here are some options for Brown.  We'll assume a salary cap of $135 million in 2024, because that gets to $40.5 million in year one of a 30% max deal, which is near Marks' estimate of $40 million per posters above.  We're comparing against a base case of a 5-year, 30% max deal with the Celtics, so all possibilities will be 5 years in length.  We'll also assume a $171 million cap in 2025, after the new media deal takes into effect.  That assumption comes from here. 
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2021/09/19/with-new-tv-deal-looming-nba-teams-could-spend-big-on-extensions/?sh=77a8e6ea3e85
I don't think it's a crazy assumption, especially considering it's based off of lower cap estimates for this season and next season.

Sign a 30% max deal in 2024 - $234.9 million
Qualify for and sign the supermax -- $274.1 million
Sign a 2+1 extension, opt out after year 2, sign a 35% max deal not with Celtics (eligible because of 10 years of service) -- $259.7-$268 million (lower number is no incentives reached, upper number is all incentives reached)
Sign a 2+1 extension, opt out after year 2, sign a 35% max with Celtics -- $265.1-$273.3 million (depending on incentives)

If he bets on himself this year and earns the supermax, he makes between $1 million and 9 million more over 5 years than he does if he signs an extension and opts out when he's eligible for a 35% max to resign with the Celtics.  That's not a huge amount.  If he misses the supermax and just goes for free agency at the 30% max, he gets substantially less than in the other scenarios.  The option gives him some injury insurance, as well as the ability to wait for a new CBA if he thinks it would be better to sign a contract under new rules rather than old ones (as someone high up in the player's association, he will have a better idea than most if that makes sense).

So what you're saying is the 2+1 would pay him slightly less in the first three years than the supermax would, while also having none of the security of a 4th and 5th year. So basically he'd have to be so worried about a career ending injury NEXT YEAR that he was willing to give up a guarantee of almost 100 million extra guaranteed dollars in year 4 and 5. Do you see why that's unlikely?

[gouki88]

I voted B) and D). The former, because I think Durant on this team with a lesser package than some of the more extreme ones (JB + Smart/White + several picks + PP + Grant) would make us almost unbeatable.

The latter, just a feeling. Nothing concrete there, it's just how I feel.

[Sophomore]

The current team wants to run it back - a year more experienced this time, and with quality reinforcements. I would love to see them go for it.

I know that on some level we root for the laundry, but watching KD just wouldn’t be the same.

[pokeKingCurtis]

I voted B) and D). The former, because I think Durant on this team with a lesser package than some of the more extreme ones (JB + Smart/White + several picks + PP + Grant) would make us almost unbeatable.

The latter, just a feeling. Nothing concrete there, it's just how I feel.

So option 2 out of 3, and then option 2 out of 2 right

That's me too...Brown White and 1 pick? That has me thinking...

[Sophomore]

This came up on the Athletic and put it well about Durant:

“He’s only played in 106 games (including playoffs) since signing with the Nets in 2019. He missed an entire season with the Achilles tendon rupture, and he missed a lot of games to help prevent serious injury in the past two seasons after he got healthy.”

And that contract, which is massive, will have to be paid out when he’s 35, 36, 37. Not to mention: you’ll be sending out picks and swaps to get him. That’s a lot of pain for a brief shot at glory.

Run it back.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

This came up on the Athletic and put it well about Durant:

“He’s only played in 106 games (including playoffs) since signing with the Nets in 2019. He missed an entire season with the Achilles tendon rupture, and he missed a lot of games to help prevent serious injury in the past two seasons after he got healthy.”

And that contract, which is massive, will have to be paid out when he’s 35, 36, 37. Not to mention: you’ll be sending out picks and swaps to get him. That’s a lot of pain for a brief shot at glory.

Run it back.

It’s not even a close decision for me. KD is going to be closer to Reggie Miller than Lebron James at 37. Reggie was still a good player at the end, but he wasn’t attacking the basket. Tatum already has these tendencies. Suddenly some fans want a passive brand of basketball?

[Vermont Green]

So what you're saying is the 2+1 would pay him slightly less in the first three years than the supermax would, while also having none of the security of a 4th and 5th year. So basically he'd have to be so worried about a career ending injury NEXT YEAR that he was willing to give up a guarantee of almost 100 million extra guaranteed dollars in year 4 and 5. Do you see why that's unlikely?

There are two ways to look at security.  As of today, he only has the security of a 2-year contract.  In those 2 years, he could get injured and never see the Max contract.  If he extends for the 2+1, he would as of that moment have 5 years of contract security and actually have the flexibility at the end of it to time when he hit free agency because of the final option year.  At that point he can sign an even larger 5-year contract.

No matter what he does, he is going to have periods where he is approaching the end of a guaranteed contract and needing to stay healthy to get the next contract.  In one scheme, he can delay that risk point out to 5 years from now starting right away.  The other scheme, he carries the risk now for 2 years but then pushes the risk out 5 years.  At that point though (7 years from now) he could either be in the middle of an even bigger contract or he could be at the end of a contract looking for a new one.  Is one of those options more or less risky?

The point is that this is not as black and white as it first seemed.  Taking the extension now is the lowest immediate risk.  He locks in 5 years (the 2 remaining plus the added 2+1).  Or he accepts 2 years of security and takes his deep dive at that point.  I don't see that there is an obvious right answer here.  It is impossible to figure which path results in the most career money or the lowest risk, there are too many assumptions needed.

[Vermont Green]

Poll update, 87 total votes, 85 voted one of the first 3 options and only 54 voted on the second part.

About 53% don't want to trade Brown for Durant at all.  The vast majority of the remaining are open to trading for Durant but only for something less than Brown, Smart, Grant, and picks.  It does not appear likely that BKN will trade Durant for something less than that.

As to the where is Brown's head at part of the poll, 32 of 54 (59%) think he likes Boston and is open to resigning.  That number started lower and trended up as the poll went on.