Poll on Brown and Durant

[LilRip]

Opportunities to win a ring come rarely. This is why I don’t mind going all-in to get KD for Brown. It vaults us to the top of the East, and this is even if Bucks have a healthy lineup. 2-years of being the East’s favorite is better than 4-years of being a possible contender.

I know we were just in the finals but the current lineup feels closer to being the Suns or the Heat than it is to being the Warriors or even the Bucks. The former 2 are dangerous teams who are always a tough out but it wouldn’t surprise you either if they get eliminated. The latter two are generally seen as favorites once the playoffs start and eliminating them feels like a huge victory.

If we could do the trade without gutting too much of our team (keeping Tatum, TL and Smart), I’d be over the moon.

[Kernewek]

Second point:

This is clearly from the Nets side. The last two years no trade Boston has done has leaked. Horford for Kemba? No. White? Shocking. Brogdon. Out of nowhere. And Boston has every reason not to want it out there if there offering Brown for Durant. Which tells you pretty clearly this is the nets leaking a trade proposal to try to drum up support for a guy who just hasn't generated the interest they were hoping for.

I don't know about that. Woj didn't get his reputation by going with a single source, and certainly he would have asked for comment from the C's. This does not feel like the way Stevens would operate, but it is hard to imagine Woj getting played too.

Woj all the times puts out info from a single side.  Doesn’t mean it wasn’t a real discussion, but it also doesn’t mean that his source didn’t put the spin on it that’s most favorable to their purposes.  For instance, was this an offer made in the last two days, or something made four weeks ago when Durant first became available?  Were there other components to the offer that may have involved the now-expired TPE, but are not being reported?  We don’t know, and Woj doesn’t need to know because his job is to drive traffic to ESPN, and this rumor does just that.  He just needs what he’s being told to be true, even if there is undisclosed context that would be important.

Shams is more specific in his reporting.  You're correct that we don't know if some information is being held back, but if Shams is accurate (he usually is) we know that Boston initiated the talks, and made a specific offer that included JB, White and a #1.

Maybe the Nets threw that out there because they're communicating that that is the new floor in communications.  But, I do think that communicating through the media is a little overblown, at least regarding getting that information out to other front offices.  If Brooklyn wants Toronto to know that JB is on the table, they'll tell Toronto outright.

You're half-correct, but we don't know the bolded. From Ozgod's post in the other thread:

The Celtics offered Brown, guard Derrick White and a draft pick to the Nets for Durant, sources said. The proposal was rejected, and Brooklyn has asked Boston — in any proposal — to include Brown, Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, draft picks and potentially one more rotation player, those sources added. Currently, the Celtics are less inclined to include Smart along with multiple other player or pick assets, but the franchise is mulling over next steps on how to approach discussions.

We don't know that the Celtics initiated the talks, we just know that their first offer was Brown White and a pick.

Shams then went on to whip up a word salad, as he is wont to do, to say that the Celtics might be a landing spot for Durant but they might not want to pay the price for him while Brooklyn might want to trade him but was perfectly happy going into the regular season with Durant, Simmons, and Irving. There's a shocking lack of specificity in that piece, actually, that suggests a slow news cycle and that someone dropped a weeks-old trade in his lap to get some information out for people to talk about when there's not much else going on.

[Vermont Green]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

And as to the trade, 18 of 32 (56%) don't want to trade him at all.  Only 4 of 32 (12%) would do the reported BKN counter offer of Brown, Smart, Grant (the rotation player) and picks.

If we really did offer Brown and White plus 1 pick, I wonder what is equivalent:

Bam + Herro
Ingram + McCollum
Ayton + Bridges

[liam]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

And as to the trade, 18 of 32 (56%) don't want to trade him at all.  Only 4 of 32 (12%) would do the reported BKN counter offer of Brown, Smart, Grant (the rotation player) and picks.

If we really did offer Brown and White plus 1 pick, I wonder what is equivalent:

Bam + Herro
Ingram + McCollum
Ayton + Bridges

I don't think Ayton can be traded now and I don't think Bam can go to the Nets due to his contract... I can't see a good trade for Durant except maybe the Pels...

[RJ87]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

[SHAQATTACK]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

And as to the trade, 18 of 32 (56%) don't want to trade him at all.  Only 4 of 32 (12%) would do the reported BKN counter offer of Brown, Smart, Grant (the rotation player) and picks.

If we really did offer Brown and White plus 1 pick, I wonder what is equivalent:

Bam + Herro
Ingram + McCollum
Ayton + Bridges

I don't think Ayton can be traded now and I don't think Bam can go to the Nets due to his contract... I can't see a good trade for Durant except maybe the Pels...

Pel should DO it ,  it maybe a rare chance for a perennial bad team to get a chance at a title ,  they could be the next Kawhi  Raptors to sneak in. 

Suns should do a Warriors ,  embrace the Luxury Tax and throW everything they got at winning a title.   

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

[keevsnick]

There's no real reason to believe that Jaylen wants out. The hole situation has devloped a real "feedback loop" feel to it.

Fans worry about a guy not liking his role-->fans as a result start thinking he may want out-->So many fans start worrying that it makes the feeling seem more real--> Reporters sense the tension, write stories about how he only has two years left on his deal---> More fans worry--> So much smoke there must be fire-->Trade proposals because he only has two years left and might leave--> cryptic tweet--->OMG he's gone.

So far to my knowledge all he's ever said is he loves Boston and wants to win here. The counter evidence is he must want him own team (with no sourcing for that), and he liked a tweet once.

Maybe Jaylen does want out, but we don't have any reason to believe that right now. 

[RJ87]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

[Bobshot]

It isn't really about Brown--it's about the overall package.
Any trade for KD must not weaken the Celtics overall.
Then the trade defeats its purpose--which is to improve the team.
I do not think Brown + Smart for Durant improves the team.

You have to suspect Brown wants out eventually. Maybe he wants to be The Man.
Well, he could be that with the Nets.

[Celtics2021]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

[Who]

I was worried last summer and early last season about the possibility of one of the Jays wanting out but that was only if the team continued to be a 41-50 win team with declining to no real postseason hopes.

After making the Finals last year and as well as the team played in the 2nd half to final 2/3rds of last season + given how strong this team is heading into next season ... I am no longer concerned about one of the Jays wanting out. The possibilities of winning here are too strong. The situation too good.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Unless there's assurance that Jaylen Brown is not resigning, why trade assets and good players to get Kevin Durant?

Sure, he's KD, but we beat him and reached the Finals without him. I'd rather have the depth and Jaylen.

[keevsnick]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now. 

[RJ87]

Poll update, based on this, about half the people still think that Jaylen wants out.  Murphy said he loves it here.  I have not heard anyone report that he wants out.

The "he told management he's not resigning in 2 years" is an invention of the fans. This all stems from a liked tweet and the fact he took a photo with Kyrie. It took next to nothing to send some folks into a panic. It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Yeah, at most he’d say he’s not signing an extension this summer.  And it’s not even clear to me that the Celtics can offer him said extension until October (three years after his extension was signed), so they might not have even had such a conversation yet.

And he won't because he'll make more money as free agent than by extending.

But overall, the idea that Jaylen has decided he won't resign 2 years ahead of schedule sounds like a decision based on emotions and not logic. Who knows what the free agent market will look like in 2 years? Jaylen doesn't come across as an emotional person. He seems very logical and thoughtful.

He's talked about being committed to the Boston community. He talked about wanting to hang a banner with Tatum. He's talked about how much he likes being coached by Ime. But sure, let's throw all of that out to panic over a couple of tweets.

I don't think it's foregone conclusion that he won't sign an extension because of money.  A 3-year extension that takes effect after his current deal (the longest he could sign for) would be worth up to $123.76 million over those three years.  If Jaylen were to be a free agent next summer (he's not) and were to sign a 3-year deal with some other team, it could be worth up to $125.69 million.  Yes, he can ultimately get more from the Celtics if he waits it out to hit free agency, and/or tries for supermax eligibility, but the Celtics can make a very competitive extension offer this summer that approaches that of max contracts.  It's not like when Rondo was a pending free agent and his max deal would have been 50% more annually than what the C's could offer for an extension (not that this worked out well for Rondo at all.)

A Brown extension right now would pay him 120 million less than the extension he could sign with the c's if he waited until his contract expires and signs for five years and 60 million less than he could get by signing with a new team for four years. Its about 150 million less total than he could make if he makes all-nba one of the next two years.

Signing an extension now would cap him at about 34 in 2024, about 6 million less than his max of roughly 40 million that year. i would argue 85% of your max, when you are probably worth more than max, actually is not that close of an offer. i would argue that leaving potentially 150 million of guaranteed money just to sign one year earlier is also not a great strategy

It makes very little financial sense for him to sign an extension right now.

I agree. Especially considering he missed out on a max money by signing an extension before. If he opted to go to restricted free agency then, he would've gotten a max offer sheet after the season he had. I just don't see him doing the same thing unless he has injury concerns. Otherwise, he'll play out his current deal and head to free agency.

I do expect the team to offer the extension, even if it's just a formality.