I guess if we were getting seconds for them and we thought we could trade them at the deadline for those same or lesser seconds, it might make sense, because then we've gotten four months of backup production at effectively no cost, and presumably we'd get new trade exceptions at the deadline. Aside from that unlikely scenario, it is very confusing.
Right, so those guys aren't worth paying 11.67 million this year with the tax implications but would they be worth it if it costs basically nothing. There just doesnt seem to be any decent free agents left at the moment but someone will get cut in Jan/Feb and will be looking to jump on board as a ring chaser.
The current free agent market isn't great, but I think it's likely much better than what we'll see in buyout season. It varies from year to year, but the buyout market didn't really materialize last season. There were a few guys -- Dragic, Carter, Bembry -- but overall there wasn't much to choose from. Compare that to the current crop of free agents: Whiteside, Cousins, Zeller, Howard, Aldridge, Bledsoe, Schroder, Carmelo, Harrell (unlikely to take the minimum, but I guess we don't know that for sure), Griffin, Jackson, Paschall, Lamb, Kemba. Those guys aren't great, but they may be better than what's available for buyouts.
The one potential buyout guy I'm interested in is Derrick Favors. Maybe San Antonio buys out Josh Richardson at some point. I'm not seeing a lot of expiring guys on non-contenders right now, but time will tell. To the extent that there may be others, I'm fine carrying an open roster spot or a non-guaranteed guy like Kornet.
I think there might be a few more buyouts this year than last year. Here are reserve-level vets who make more than $5 million with no money owed to them next year on likely tanking teams:
Noel (Detroit)
Burks (Detroid)
Walker (Detroit -- supposedly he agreed to a buyout but he hasn't been released as of yet)
Richardson (San Antonio)
Nwaba (Houston)
Favors (Thunder)
Ross (Orlando)
Gay (Utah -- has a smallish player option which he'd have to waive)
None of these guys are likely to fetch anything in a trade, either because they're not good enough to warrant a pick (e.g. Nwaba, Ross) or because they make too much money (e.g. Richardson, Burks). There will probably be some other names to add, either because they play for a team who will enter tanking mode in February (hi Washington and Portland, enjoy those Beal and Lillard contracts!) or because they will be traded to a tanker to match salary (Utah might wind up with a lot of these players in trades involving Mitchell and Bogdonovich, amongst others).
Last year there were very few potential buyout options of any quality that didn't shake loose (the top two were probably Gary Harris and Dennis Schroder). I think this year the buyout market will be hotter, because of teams tanking for Wembanyama, and also due to how tight so many teams are to the tax (15 of 30 teams are over the tax or within $2 million of it) which will suppress the market for reserve-level players.
I know the buyout market isn't a great place for talent, but when you're talking about finding third stringers that can step up if there's an injury, it's more appropriate. Most of the vet free agents you listed aren't going to want to sign onto a place for a full season if they know they'll be out of the rotation, but those same types of players are much more amenable to it if it's for 7 weeks of the regular season before a potential title run.