Author Topic: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.  (Read 17053 times)

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Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #75 on: July 14, 2022, 08:52:19 PM »

Offline liam

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Was that the best summer league game Celtic has played in the last 5 years?

Any Celtic?  It's hard to remember since the games are pretty meaningless, but Pritchard was excellent last year, right?

And Nesmith had a 33 point game.

Pritchard was pretty good last year. I don't remember Nesmith's 33 point game. But almost 30 points with 10 assists and playmaking on defense was pretty special.

I don't think these games are meaningless. I think its pretty meaningful when a late second round pick can have a game like that. in his first summer league as one of the younger players on the court.

How much meaning do you put into his first three games?

I mean, there's a long history of summer league telling us almost nothing (if not nothing) about a player's potential.

And that's not just one game.  We've seen guys like Glen Rice Jr., Brandon Clarke, Josh Selby and Jerryd Bayless win Summer League MVP.

I'm glad you're excited, but I don't think any projections are possible based upon summer league performances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpHB9mE_e8A

I liked what I saw from Davinson in all of the summer league games. I like the way he moves and his motor. His court vision also seems really good. Summer League isn't a good judge of NBA success because the Summer League isn't really the same game. It's a lot more like pickup games. You can still things in players. I enjoyed the Summer League this year. On to the NBA season!

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #76 on: July 14, 2022, 08:57:04 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Was that the best summer league game Celtic has played in the last 5 years?

There's a lot to like and be hopeful about with Davison.

I'm going to come out early here with a bold prediction. He reminds me of a young Eric Bledsoe. I think he might have a similar trajectory if he puts in the work.
PP had that near triple double against Denver (21/12/8) in 25 minutes.
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C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #77 on: July 14, 2022, 09:06:43 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Was that the best summer league game Celtic has played in the last 5 years?

Any Celtic?  It's hard to remember since the games are pretty meaningless, but Pritchard was excellent last year, right?

And Nesmith had a 33 point game.

Pritchard was pretty good last year. I don't remember Nesmith's 33 point game. But almost 30 points with 10 assists and playmaking on defense was pretty special.

I don't think these games are meaningless. I think its pretty meaningful when a late second round pick can have a game like that. in his first summer league as one of the younger players on the court.

How much meaning do you put into his first three games?

I mean, there's a long history of summer league telling us almost nothing (if not nothing) about a player's potential.

And that's not just one game.  We've seen guys like Glen Rice Jr., Brandon Clarke, Josh Selby and Jerryd Bayless win Summer League MVP.

I'm glad you're excited, but I don't think any projections are possible based upon summer league performances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpHB9mE_e8A

A lot of those guys were older when they had their good performances. Guys like Bayless and Rice both leveraged those summer league games into multiple years of being on NBA rosters.

You can definitely overvalue summer league.. However, I really like what I'm seeing.

- He demonstrated the ability to run the pick-and-roll and find open teammates in all three games. His assist numbers were good and the other Cs missed a lot of open shots that he set up in the first two games.
- I thought he looked like one of the most athletic players on the court in each game.
- I thought he handled pressure (especially against Miami) really well and still was able to conduct an NBA offense in each game. I thought he'd look more like a Terry Rozier scoring guard/tweener guard, but he actually looked like a point guard out there and very comfortable running the offense.
- I like his shooting form a lot. Other than the fact that he leans back sometimes, his form looks compact and consistent. I think that means he is likely to become a reliable spot-up shooter.
- He made effort to be extremely disruptive defensively. He had blocks and steals in each game - the type that show he is already comfortable with the speed of the players in the summer league. He made the types of defensive players that you would hope solid prospects would make.

The item I was least impressed by was his driving. He looked like he could not reliably and comfortably get to his spots on the court to shoot shots he wanted, until today. I think that may be the area he needs most work on (also he has to work on not getting stuck on the screener when he is defending a ball handler in the pick-and-roll).

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #78 on: July 14, 2022, 09:16:35 PM »

Offline colincb

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Tom Westerholm:

Quote
[Davison] is second in Las Vegas in assists per game at 7.8, just 0.2 assists/game behind Thunder guard Josh Giddey (who has a year of NBA experience and a much more highly touted target in Chet Holmgren!).

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #79 on: July 14, 2022, 09:22:11 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Tom Westerholm:

Quote
[Davison] is second in Las Vegas in assists per game at 7.8, just 0.2 assists/game behind Thunder guard Josh Giddey (who has a year of NBA experience and a much more highly touted target in Chet Holmgren!).

He's passing surprisingly well, just from the couple quarters I was able to watch from game 2.

Edit: though of course as John Karalis noted, could be because Kaban...gele kept getting freed up due to bad defense.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2022, 09:28:07 PM by pokeKingCurtis »

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #80 on: July 14, 2022, 09:28:13 PM »

Offline liam

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Was that the best summer league game Celtic has played in the last 5 years?

Any Celtic?  It's hard to remember since the games are pretty meaningless, but Pritchard was excellent last year, right?

And Nesmith had a 33 point game.

Pritchard was pretty good last year. I don't remember Nesmith's 33 point game. But almost 30 points with 10 assists and playmaking on defense was pretty special.

I don't think these games are meaningless. I think its pretty meaningful when a late second round pick can have a game like that. in his first summer league as one of the younger players on the court.

How much meaning do you put into his first three games?

I mean, there's a long history of summer league telling us almost nothing (if not nothing) about a player's potential.

And that's not just one game.  We've seen guys like Glen Rice Jr., Brandon Clarke, Josh Selby and Jerryd Bayless win Summer League MVP.

I'm glad you're excited, but I don't think any projections are possible based upon summer league performances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpHB9mE_e8A

A lot of those guys were older when they had their good performances. Guys like Bayless and Rice both leveraged those summer league games into multiple years of being on NBA rosters.

You can definitely overvalue summer league.. However, I really like what I'm seeing.

- He demonstrated the ability to run the pick-and-roll and find open teammates in all three games. His assist numbers were good and the other Cs missed a lot of open shots that he set up in the first two games.
- I thought he looked like one of the most athletic players on the court in each game.
- I thought he handled pressure (especially against Miami) really well and still was able to conduct an NBA offense in each game. I thought he'd look more like a Terry Rozier scoring guard/tweener guard, but he actually looked like a point guard out there and very comfortable running the offense.
- I like his shooting form a lot. Other than the fact that he leans back sometimes, his form looks compact and consistent. I think that means he is likely to become a reliable spot-up shooter.
- He made effort to be extremely disruptive defensively. He had blocks and steals in each game - the type that show he is already comfortable with the speed of the players in the summer league. He made the types of defensive players that you would hope solid prospects would make.

The item I was least impressed by was his driving. He looked like he could not reliably and comfortably get to his spots on the court to shoot shots he wanted, until today. I think that may be the area he needs most work on (also he has to work on not getting stuck on the screener when he is defending a ball handler in the pick-and-roll).

I agree that JD is more of a pure point than a combo guard. That's a good thing. The way he contests shots at his size is very special also. He has a lot of work to do but he has loads of talent. Talent doesn't guarantee anything but it's a good start.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #81 on: July 14, 2022, 10:23:36 PM »

Offline gouki88

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Tom Westerholm:

Quote
[Davison] is second in Las Vegas in assists per game at 7.8, just 0.2 assists/game behind Thunder guard Josh Giddey (who has a year of NBA experience and a much more highly touted target in Chet Holmgren!).

He's passing surprisingly well, just from the couple quarters I was able to watch from game 2.

Edit: though of course as John Karalis noted, could be because Kaban...gele kept getting freed up due to bad defense.
Kabengele is also a very efficient finisher at the rim this summer. But Davison has been 10x better at keeping the ball than I was expecting from his college play.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #82 on: July 14, 2022, 10:41:57 PM »

Offline liam

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Tom Westerholm:

Quote
[Davison] is second in Las Vegas in assists per game at 7.8, just 0.2 assists/game behind Thunder guard Josh Giddey (who has a year of NBA experience and a much more highly touted target in Chet Holmgren!).

He's passing surprisingly well, just from the couple quarters I was able to watch from game 2.

Edit: though of course as John Karalis noted, could be because Kaban...gele kept getting freed up due to bad defense.
Kabengele is also a very efficient finisher at the rim this summer. But Davison has been 10x better at keeping the ball than I was expecting from his college play.

Kabengele and JD both have very high motors. I enjoyed them both in Summer League.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #83 on: July 14, 2022, 11:26:57 PM »

Offline Goldstar88

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I knows it’s only 4  SL games, but… JD Davison is averaging 12pts, 7.8ast, 3.3rebs, 1.5stl, 1.5blk while shooting 40% from the field, 46% from 3pt and 85% from the line. Kid has upside…  :)
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At some point you have to blame the performance on the court on the players on the court. Every loss is not the coach's fault and every win isn't because of the players.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #84 on: July 15, 2022, 01:28:31 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Finally getting around to tonights highlights. Those passes are something. Felt his dominance just through those highlights.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #85 on: July 15, 2022, 01:31:17 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Box Plus Minus is the stat used to compare people now.  wow.

I guess you don’t understand what “strong caveats” are?
Oh I understand fully the meaning of that phrase, and it is still asinine.  I mean among regulars Davison was 3rd on his team in BPM last year.  I guess he must have been playing with the next Lebron James and Kevin Durant if he is Ja Morant.  The simple reality is there are no caveats of any kind that make that comparison worthwhile in any way at all.  It is just crazy town.

I mean, OP provided his analysis. Morant blew up in college, JD didn't.

I just skimmed, didn't read properly and didn't do OP's research justice.
to claim that box plus minus has anything to do with potential is just crazy.  That is what I was commenting on.  There is absolutely ZERO correlation between BPM and potential.  NONE.  NADA.  ZILCH.

I guess OP should have said had similar production, except Morant blew up.

And that JD & Morant were similar in their athletic traits.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #86 on: July 15, 2022, 02:48:49 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Box Plus Minus is the stat used to compare people now.  wow.

I guess you don’t understand what “strong caveats” are?
Oh I understand fully the meaning of that phrase, and it is still asinine.  I mean among regulars Davison was 3rd on his team in BPM last year.  I guess he must have been playing with the next Lebron James and Kevin Durant if he is Ja Morant.  The simple reality is there are no caveats of any kind that make that comparison worthwhile in any way at all.  It is just crazy town.

I mean, OP provided his analysis. Morant blew up in college, JD didn't.

I just skimmed, didn't read properly and didn't do OP's research justice.
to claim that box plus minus has anything to do with potential is just crazy.  That is what I was commenting on.  There is absolutely ZERO correlation between BPM and potential.  NONE.  NADA.  ZILCH.
You're responding to a statement that was never made.

Quote
Strong caveats of college catch-all stats aside, Davison and Morant produced identical BPMs of 5.2 in their freshmen seasons, with Davison’s coming against much stronger competition in the SEC compared to the OVC.  Morant blew up in his sophomore year.

Not saying Davison will be Morant, at all, but they showed similar potential after their freshman seasons.  Difference is of course Morant blew up in college while we hope Davison takes off in the G League.

Nowhere is Celtics2021 saying that BPM correlates with potential. Simply noting that Ja and JD had the same BPM as freshmen, and as freshmen they were viewed similarly.
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #87 on: July 15, 2022, 09:06:55 AM »

Offline ozgod

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Amazing the difference a game makes in people's impressions  :police: He was shooting 25% before last night. When you make shots you always look good.

Certainly shows potential, but is unpolished. A year in Maine will do him good.
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Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #88 on: July 15, 2022, 11:12:06 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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He has physical talent.   He seems to be humble.    I think he will improve over time.

Re: JD Davison will not be rookie of the year.
« Reply #89 on: July 15, 2022, 11:23:25 AM »

Online Moranis

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Box Plus Minus is the stat used to compare people now.  wow.

I guess you don’t understand what “strong caveats” are?
Oh I understand fully the meaning of that phrase, and it is still asinine.  I mean among regulars Davison was 3rd on his team in BPM last year.  I guess he must have been playing with the next Lebron James and Kevin Durant if he is Ja Morant.  The simple reality is there are no caveats of any kind that make that comparison worthwhile in any way at all.  It is just crazy town.

I mean, OP provided his analysis. Morant blew up in college, JD didn't.

I just skimmed, didn't read properly and didn't do OP's research justice.
to claim that box plus minus has anything to do with potential is just crazy.  That is what I was commenting on.  There is absolutely ZERO correlation between BPM and potential.  NONE.  NADA.  ZILCH.
You're responding to a statement that was never made.

Quote
Strong caveats of college catch-all stats aside, Davison and Morant produced identical BPMs of 5.2 in their freshmen seasons, with Davison’s coming against much stronger competition in the SEC compared to the OVC.  Morant blew up in his sophomore year.

Not saying Davison will be Morant, at all, but they showed similar potential after their freshman seasons.  Difference is of course Morant blew up in college while we hope Davison takes off in the G League.

Nowhere is Celtics2021 saying that BPM correlates with potential. Simply noting that Ja and JD had the same BPM as freshmen, and as freshmen they were viewed similarly.
That was absolutely the implication of the post.  Why include the BPM discussion at all, if you aren't correlating to the 2nd part related to potential?  Put it this way, reading that post, how did Morant and Davison show similar potential after their freshman seasons?
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