Grant Williams Extension

[Roy H.]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

I mean, Williams has been great, but if any team sees him as a lead player and wants to pay him as such, they can have him.

[Sophomore]

He is basically Brandon Bass, who shoots 3's. I wouldn't tie up a lot of money in him, unless it is a s+t

Grant got switched from KD onto Kyrie and stayed in front of them both. He’s done a solid job defending Giannis without needing a double-team. Could Bass do that? I don’t remember. But for this team what Grant does is really valuable. He’s also a really good team defender: times his stunts and rotations well, recovers well.

And I wouldn’t knock the threes either. He ended the season above 40% on decent volume. Again, that’s a big deal for this team, which wants to open driving lanes for Tatum and Brown. If you can replace that for less, ok. But I doubt that’s going to be easy.

[nickagneta]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

That’s more than Rob will be making. Over the next few years, Timelord is due $10.7M, $11.5M, $12.4M, $13M. Grant is giving them 7.8pts and 3.6rebs in 24mins off the bench. I’d let him walk for that kind of money.

Rob was given his contract based on a year before the extension of 8 points, 7 rebounds and a complete inability over three years of staying healthy and available to play.

Grant getting a similar contact on 7.6 points and 3.6 rebounds the year before his extension, but being completely healthy and available for three years, while making himself one of the best three point shooters in the league, seems to be fair.

[Celtics2021]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

I mean, Williams has been great, but if any team sees him as a lead player and wants to pay him as such, they can have him.

Right, the Celtics would say that too, and wouldn’t match an offer.  But they’d still miss him, and have no way of replacing him.  The point is I think it would make sense for the C’s to give in at $13 million a year during an extension, rather than toeing the line at $11-12 million a year.  Grant’s contractual downside is probably going to be the MLE, and his upside could be pretty high, albeit with lower probability.  An extra million or two isn’t going to break the bank, and he’s an important rotation player who could even be a starter by the time the extension kicks in.  The luxury tax line is going to be about $150 million in year one — paying a guy who’s in the 5-7 range of your rotation 8-10% of that isn’t going to break the bank.

Also, it should be noted that there could be some significant cap spikes maybe as early as year 2 of Grant’s new deal, and almost certainly by year 4.  A new media deal will kick in before year 3, and it’s expected to more than double the current deal.  That may lead to some early spikes through cap smoothing in year 2 of Grant’s contract, or a big spike in year 3, followed by an additional spike in year 4 with a new CBA.  The salary cap could be as much 50% higher in year 3 of Grant’s deal compared to today.  Estimates are at $170 million for the cap, not the tax, for the 2025-2026 season if there’s no smoothing.  $13 million a year for Grant would be a bargain in those circumstances.

[nickagneta]

For those worrying about the tax situation, remember that Grant's extension and Brown's future max extension will be mitigated by Al Horford's $27 million contract( yes, it will be $27 million) coming off the books the same year those two extension kick in.

[Celtics2021]

For those worrying about the tax situation, remember that Grant's extension and Brown's future max extension will be mitigated by Al Horford's $27 million contract( yes, it will be $27 million) coming off the books the same year those two extension kick in.

This is true for Grant, as I said above, but it is not true for Jaylen's, which will kick in a year later.  Also, Brown won't be eligible for a max extension unless he makes All-NBA next season.  Otherwise he can get at most a 20% raise, which would fall below the max, albeit near it.  I'm not sure he'd sign that deal, personally.

[BringToughnessBack]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

I mean, Williams has been great, but if any team sees him as a lead player and wants to pay him as such, they can have him.

You know, I had a weird thought when you said that and it made me think back to the days of OKC and Westbrook, Durant and Harden. They clearly made a big mistake in letting Harden go. Not saying Williams is Harden but not saying he wont be a star either.

[Vermont Green]

If I understand correctly, Grant can be extended after this season or he becomes a RFA in 2023 with a $6.2M QO.  I am not so sure that the big offers will be there for him as an RFA.  Look at Markkanen.  He struggled to get his deal at $16.8M average and he would seem to have more market value.

Grant has been a useful, versatile player for us.  He dramatically improved his 3pt shooting that has helped is value significantly.  But his ceiling is still likely a bench player or maybe fringe starter.  He is an undersized player whose best season is 8 pts, 4 rebs.  Markkanen is a near 7-footer who as a starter, flirted with 20 pts/10 rebs.  I am not sure what all this means in terms of actual contract value.  Players always get more than I think they will get, always.  But maybe 4 years/$50M?  That is already more than RWill, he got 4/$48M.   So maybe actually 4/$45M?

Maybe the best thing for him is to play out his final year and become a RFA.  If he keeps improving, who knows.  I just don't see a lot of teams opening up either check books for him.   

[Goldstar88]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

You are seriously comparing Grant Williams to Jerami Grant…I will have what you’re having.

[RJ87]

If I understand correctly, Grant can be extended after this season or he becomes a RFA in 2023 with a $6.2M QO.  I am not so sure that the big offers will be there for him as an RFA.  Look at Markkanen.  He struggled to get his deal at $16.8M average and he would seem to have more market value.

Grant has been a useful, versatile player for us.  He dramatically improved his 3pt shooting that has helped is value significantly.  But his ceiling is still likely a bench player or maybe fringe starter.  He is an undersized player whose best season is 8 pts, 4 rebs.  Markkanen is a near 7-footer who as a starter, flirted with 20 pts/10 rebs.  I am not sure what all this means in terms of actual contract value.  Players always get more than I think they will get, always.  But maybe 4 years/$50M?  That is already more than RWill, he got 4/$48M.   So maybe actually 4/$45M?

Maybe the best thing for him is to play out his final year and become a RFA. If he keeps improving, who knows.  I just don't see a lot of teams opening up either check books for him.

Both Markkanen and RWill both had significant injury questions going into their negotiations. I think both would've commanded more if they could've stay on the court more - especially Markkanen.

Grant is at least an full-MLE player. He's a 3 and D guy who can guard bigger players and play on the perimeter. That has value in today's NBA.

[Goldstar88]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

That’s more than Rob will be making. Over the next few years, Timelord is due $10.7M, $11.5M, $12.4M, $13M. Grant is giving them 7.8pts and 3.6rebs in 24mins off the bench. I’d let him walk for that kind of money.

Rob was given his contract based on a year before the extension of 8 points, 7 rebounds and a complete inability over three years of staying healthy and available to play.

Grant getting a similar contact on 7.6 points and 3.6 rebounds the year before his extension, but being completely healthy and available for three years, while making himself one of the best three point shooters in the league, seems to be fair.

Come on, Nick. Rob’s per 36 numbers were off the charts before he signed that extension. Grant never had that sort of upside. The talent discrepancy is immense.

Rob’s per 36 the season before he signed the extension: 15.2pts, 13.1rebs, 3.4ast, 3.3blks, 1.6stls,

[nickagneta]

For those worrying about the tax situation, remember that Grant's extension and Brown's future max extension will be mitigated by Al Horford's $27 million contract( yes, it will be $27 million) coming off the books the same year those two extension kick in.

This is true for Grant, as I said above, but it is not true for Jaylen's, which will kick in a year later.  Also, Brown won't be eligible for a max extension unless he makes All-NBA next season.  Otherwise he can get at most a 20% raise, which would fall below the max, albeit near it.  I'm not sure he'd sign that deal, personally.

First, thanks for the correction on when Brown's future deal would kick in. That makes worrying about the tax implications of Grants extension less necessary as it means even less salary that year.

Also, I am aware of what Jaylen has to do to get that max extension, I just think he will ascend to All-NBA level, especially when the Celtics win the title this year and Jaylen is a massive reason why. 😁💚

[Celtics2021]

If I understand correctly, Grant can be extended after this season or he becomes a RFA in 2023 with a $6.2M QO.  I am not so sure that the big offers will be there for him as an RFA.  Look at Markkanen.  He struggled to get his deal at $16.8M average and he would seem to have more market value.

Grant has been a useful, versatile player for us.  He dramatically improved his 3pt shooting that has helped is value significantly.  But his ceiling is still likely a bench player or maybe fringe starter.  He is an undersized player whose best season is 8 pts, 4 rebs.  Markkanen is a near 7-footer who as a starter, flirted with 20 pts/10 rebs.  I am not sure what all this means in terms of actual contract value.  Players always get more than I think they will get, always.  But maybe 4 years/$50M?  That is already more than RWill, he got 4/$48M.   So maybe actually 4/$45M?

Maybe the best thing for him is to play out his final year and become a RFA.  If he keeps improving, who knows.  I just don't see a lot of teams opening up either check books for him.

You can't look at how a single player like Markkanen (whom I continue to think you overrate, as I would take Grant over him, but that's mostly beside the point), did in free agency without considering the context of the free agent markets at the same time.  Firstly, the salary cap will be roughly 15% higher when Grant reaches free agency (barring the extension I think the Celtics should pursue).  Secondly, and more importantly, very few teams had real cap space last year.  Only 8 teams had $16.8 million in cap space entering free agency last year; Markkanen had few teams who might be willing to come in for his price range without having to work out a trade with Chicago, and only four teams (Knicks, Mavs, Spurs, and Thunder) had $30 million or more in cap space as of August 1st (meaning they could sign Markkanen and other players).  The Knicks had the most space at $52.6 million.

In the summer of 2023, there are currently 16 teams that are currently slated to have $55 million or more in space.  In other words, half the league is on pace to have more cap space than the league-leading Knicks did last summer.  That's going to come down a bit as there will be some free agent signings, extensions, and draft picks between now and then, but it won't come down nearly as much as some years due to the pretty limited free agency class this summer.  Probably about half the league will have the cap space to target Williams, and he fits a role that most every team is looking for.  The market for his services is going to be substantially larger than Markkanen's, and with more interested teams, his contract will likely rise relative to Markkanen's.  Meanwhile, despite a lot of teams having cap space, the unrestricted free agent list is a bit underwhelming, so I expect some teams will make large offers, perhaps frontloaded ones, to RFAs.  This is especially likely to be true given the cap spike I mentioned above.  If a team has a ton of space in 2023, spending above market for a player that you nonetheless like, and putting him on a declining deal will make him a bargain contract once the cap spike hits mid-deal.

I do think a deal will get done this summer, because Stevens has shown a willingness to sign players to extensions, but I also think it will come in higher than a contingent here thinks is reasonable.

[Celtics2021]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

You are seriously comparing Grant Williams to Jerami Grant…I will have what you’re having.

Jerami Grant at 23 -- 8.4/3.9/0.7 on .535/.291/.675 shooting (eFG and TS .570 and .607).

Grant Williams at 23 -- 7.8/3.6/1.0 on .475/.411/.905 (eFG and TS of .597 and .635).

Yes, I will seriously compare them.

[Goldstar88]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

You are seriously comparing Grant Williams to Jerami Grant…I will have what you’re having.

Jerami Grant at 23 -- 8.4/3.9/0.7 on .535/.291/.675 shooting (eFG and TS .570 and .607).

Grant Williams at 23 -- 7.8/3.6/1.0 on .475/.411/.905 (eFG and TS of .597 and .635).

Yes, I will seriously compare them.

Just because they were both once 23 years old, doesn’t mean they are comparable players. Before Jerami signed the contract with Detroit, he averaged 12pts, 3.5rebs, while shooting 39% from 3pt and 48% from the field for Denver. The year before that in OKC he averaged 13.6pts, 5.2rebs, shot 39% from 3pt and 50% from the field. Jerami is a 6’8” athletic wing, which is the most important position in the NBA. Grant Williams is a PF listed at a generous 6’6”, who lacks athleticism and is averaging 7.8pts and only 3.5rebs in 24mins of play. They are not comparable talents.