Grant Williams Extension

[pokeKingCurtis]

I feel Grant would go to market if he gets offered anything less than 13 million per year.

Yeah, that’s about right in my opinion.  A full MLE when Grant hits free agency will be around 4 years, $47 million, so that probably the floor of what he would accept.

I think the MLE is about right for Williams, maybe a small premium.  But, if I were him I'd probably accept a little bit less now.  I'm fairly risk averse, and if there's an injury or a regression, he's looking at losing a healthy chunk of money.  If we're talking about the difference between, say, $44 million now versus a reasonable maximum around $50 million for his current level of play, I'd take that.  He's not the type of player who could reasonably "bet on himself" and double his salary from his current value.

Grant is only 23, turning 24 about a quarter of the way into next season.  Additional ascension is much more likely than regression in his case.  Also, risk aversion cuts both ways.  A lot of teams have been targeting 2023 as a free agency year, and someone is going to have a lot of money to spend that doesn’t hit on a big time free agent.  Look at what Jerami Grant got from Detroit for production not that different from what Williams has done so far in his career — $60 million over 3 years.  Someone is going to have cash — do the Celtics want to risk Grant is the guy a team has pegged to break out into a lead player, giving him a contract the C’s don’t want to match?  That might be worth paying a small premium during extension negotiations to eliminate that possibility.  With Horford’s deal ending and almost certainly heading for a pay cut if he remains in Boston, the Celtics should be able to afford Williams if they aren’t too stingy.

You are seriously comparing Grant Williams to Jerami Grant…I will have what you’re having.

Jerami Grant at 23 -- 8.4/3.9/0.7 on .535/.291/.675 shooting (eFG and TS .570 and .607).

Grant Williams at 23 -- 7.8/3.6/1.0 on .475/.411/.905 (eFG and TS of .597 and .635).

Yes, I will seriously compare them.

Just because they were both once 23 years old, doesn’t mean they are comparable players. Before Jerami signed the contract with Detroit, he averaged 12pts, 3.5rebs, while shooting 39% from 3pt and 48% from the field for Denver. The year before that in OKC he averaged 13.6pts, 5.2rebs, shot 39% from 3pt and 50% from the field. Jerami is a 6’8” athletic wing, which is the most important position in the NBA. Grant Williams is a PF listed at a generous 6’6”, who lacks athleticism and is averaging 7.8pts and only 3.5rebs in 24mins of play. They are not comparable talents.

This is such a weird hill to die on. Jerami Grant at the same age was a worse player than Grant Williams currently is. His statistical jump came with him being given twice as many shots.

Jerami Grant was averaging 10pts, 5rebs, 1.5blks his second year in the league. Grant Williams was averaging 5pts, 3rebs, 0.4blks. Who cares what each guy did at age 23, let’s look at what they did right before they were due for a new contract. These two  are in no way similar talents. Do you really think Grant Williams is ever going be a 20ppg scorer like Jerami Grant? It’s a ridiculous comparison.

I'm fairly confident that Grant Williams could put up completely worthless stats on a team that won 10 games. Averaging 10/5/1.5 on 42/24/66 shooting on one of the worst teams in history is not impressive at all, and the only ridiculousness is you trying to paint that as some lofty height that Grant would be lucky to reach.

I was trying to check if Sully (Jared Sullinger) averaged 20 points with us.

Kelly Olynyk apparently averaged 19 on the Rockets (albeit in just around 30 games).

I would have thunk Sully would pan out. Dude was so talented. But Olynyk ended up with the better career NBA-wise.

[Celtics2021]

If I'm Grant, I'm eyeing free agency, so it's on Brad to sign him to a deal that keeps him from hitting the open market. I think they sign him and I think its for an amount that will have many here screaming 'overpay'.

I think they'll have to overpay to get him to sign an extension. If I'm him, I want above my current market value or I'll see what someone else is willing to pay. 

He's got a bit of an old man's game, but he's great at it - and now that he can hit the 3, his market value skyrockets. Keep in mind Ime trusted him to guard Giannis man to man for a good part of the game last night, and he did a very good job.  His skill set is one that most teams in the league would want - not as a role player, but as one you build your team around - sixth man or starter level.

If he hits the open market he will get paid - a lot.

Marcus Smart thought the same thing when his rookie deal was up. Became a RFA and returned to Boston (4yrs/$50M). No team was willing to give him the money he was looking for And Marcus is/was a much better player than Grant.

Marcus was also coming off the worst season in his career when he missed a month by punching his hand into a hotel mirror or whatever foolish thing he did.  It was the maturity, not the basketball, that kept down his value.  Grant has shown no such maturity issues.

Also, Marcus’s deal in 2023 cap dollars would be about 4 years, $65 million.  Cap inflation is a thing — minimums, maximums, rookie scales, qualifying offers, and exceptions all rise by the same amount as the cap every year.  You need to account for it if you really want to compare the two, as you seem to want to.

[tenn_smoothie]

Grant's athletic attributes ?

The guy is strong as a bull and has shown some surprising straight-up vertical leap on some impressive shot blocks.
To me, the guy is a perfect Celtic and I hope he stays. I watched him down here all through college and even though he was SEC Player of the Year for two straight seasons, I did not think he would do this well in the pros. The 3-point shot improvement has been amazing.

He will only improve and he has a good head on his shoulders. Just doesn't seem like the type of player to demand unrealistic money. I'm also betting that he is wise enough to understand that he is in a very good situation and he will put a lot of value on that.

[pokeKingCurtis]

Grant's athletic attributes ?

The guy is strong as a bull and has shown some surprising straight-up vertical leap on some impressive shot blocks.
To me, the guy is a perfect Celtic and I hope he stays. I watched him down here all through college and even though he was SEC Player of the Year for two straight seasons, I did not think he would do this well in the pros. The 3-point shot improvement has been amazing.

He will only improve and he has a good head on his shoulders. Just doesn't seem like the type of player to demand unrealistic money. I'm also betting that he is wise enough to understand that he is in a very good situation and he will put a lot of value on that.

It's a difficult decision, cos he'd be leaving millions on the table, when there's a chance he might be injured and lose all his earning potential.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

So far, Brad Stevens has taken care of home-grown talent. His contract would kick in when Horford's comes off the books. Makes sense he would get part of that Horford contract.

Or better yet, maybe he takes another step forward this post-season and next season and finds something between Draymond Green and PJ Tucker. It'd be great to have that problem.

Give me Grant Williams over Kyle Kuzma, or similar "scoring" forwards that have meh efficiency and don't know how to defend consistently.

[terra haute]

At what point is enough money enough? Depends on player. If I'm a great fit on a contending consistent winner and still making insane money  to even wealthy normal people? Would I rather win , still have more money that  I should ever have to or need to spend and win? Can you resign yourself to playing with a couple guys making 5 time what you do? To me i'd rather stay where I fit and win , lots of exposure on a team like Celtics or go make more on a loser, that will always be a loser and I may not fit anyway?

[gouki88]

At what point is enough money enough? Depends on player. If I'm a great fit on a contending consistent winner and still making insane money  to even wealthy normal people? Would I rather win , still have more money that  I should ever have to or need to spend and win? Can you resign yourself to playing with a couple guys making 5 time what you do? To me i'd rather stay where I fit and win , lots of exposure on a team like Celtics or go make more on a loser, that will always be a loser and I may not fit anyway?

I feel like it's very difficult to try and put oneself in such a position, as I don't think any of us are multimillionaire athletes

[GreenlyGreeny]

Both Smart and Timelord are now absurdly underpaid. Major kudos to Stevens for getting those extensions in place before they soared.

If I was Stevens, I’d approach the initial conversation with Grant as “hey, we want to offer you the same extension we gave Rob last year because you’re continuing to grow, you ooze Celtic Pride and we see you as a big part of our future. What do you think?”

Worst-case, Grant says he’s going into RFA, which we respect, and we just match the best offer he gets. We obviously cannot allow Grant to walk. We’re on the path to a dynasty and Grant is that 6MOTY-caliber guy every championship team needs.

[Goldstar88]

If I'm Grant, I'm eyeing free agency, so it's on Brad to sign him to a deal that keeps him from hitting the open market. I think they sign him and I think its for an amount that will have many here screaming 'overpay'.

I think they'll have to overpay to get him to sign an extension. If I'm him, I want above my current market value or I'll see what someone else is willing to pay. 

He's got a bit of an old man's game, but he's great at it - and now that he can hit the 3, his market value skyrockets. Keep in mind Ime trusted him to guard Giannis man to man for a good part of the game last night, and he did a very good job.  His skill set is one that most teams in the league would want - not as a role player, but as one you build your team around - sixth man or starter level.

If he hits the open market he will get paid - a lot.

Marcus Smart thought the same thing when his rookie deal was up. Became a RFA and returned to Boston (4yrs/$50M). No team was willing to give him the money he was looking for And Marcus is/was a much better player than Grant.

Marcus was also coming off the worst season in his career when he missed a month by punching his hand into a hotel mirror or whatever foolish thing he did.  It was the maturity, not the basketball, that kept down his value.  Grant has shown no such maturity issues.

Also, Marcus’s deal in 2023 cap dollars would be about 4 years, $65 million.  Cap inflation is a thing — minimums, maximums, rookie scales, qualifying offers, and exceptions all rise by the same amount as the cap every year.  You need to account for it if you really want to compare the two, as you seem to want to.

He was not coming off the worst season of his career..During the 2017-2018 season, Marcus averaged 10.2pts, 4.8ast, 3.5 reb and 1.3stl. He signed the extension summer of 2018. His worst season was his rookie year where he averaged 7.8pts, 3.1ast, 3.3reb, 1.5stl and he was still more productive than Grant was this year.

[pokeKingCurtis]

At what point is enough money enough? Depends on player. If I'm a great fit on a contending consistent winner and still making insane money  to even wealthy normal people? Would I rather win , still have more money that  I should ever have to or need to spend and win? Can you resign yourself to playing with a couple guys making 5 time what you do? To me i'd rather stay where I fit and win , lots of exposure on a team like Celtics or go make more on a loser, that will always be a loser and I may not fit anyway?

I feel like it's very difficult to try and put oneself in such a position, as I don't think any of us are multimillionaire athletes

They could take care of their family for literal generations with that money

[gouki88]

At what point is enough money enough? Depends on player. If I'm a great fit on a contending consistent winner and still making insane money  to even wealthy normal people? Would I rather win , still have more money that  I should ever have to or need to spend and win? Can you resign yourself to playing with a couple guys making 5 time what you do? To me i'd rather stay where I fit and win , lots of exposure on a team like Celtics or go make more on a loser, that will always be a loser and I may not fit anyway?

I feel like it's very difficult to try and put oneself in such a position, as I don't think any of us are multimillionaire athletes

They could take care of their family for literal generations with that money

They could. Simultaneously, nobody here has the competitive streak, drive or ego that a professional athlete does. It's an impossible situation to relate to

[Androslav]

Somewhere in the 4 years, 56-64M range makes sense.

I agree, he would start on a lot of teams. This looks like a starter's pay. He is young, smart, has no injury history, and doesn't get in the trouble of the court.

[jambr380]

At what point is enough money enough? Depends on player. If I'm a great fit on a contending consistent winner and still making insane money  to even wealthy normal people? Would I rather win , still have more money that  I should ever have to or need to spend and win? Can you resign yourself to playing with a couple guys making 5 time what you do? To me i'd rather stay where I fit and win , lots of exposure on a team like Celtics or go make more on a loser, that will always be a loser and I may not fit anyway?

I feel like it's very difficult to try and put oneself in such a position, as I don't think any of us are multimillionaire athletes

They could take care of their family for literal generations with that money

They could. Simultaneously, nobody here has the competitive streak, drive or ego that a professional athlete does. It's an impossible situation to relate to

This doesn't seem true at all. There are plenty of 7-footers (for instance) that just happened to land themselves an NBA career without being all that competitive or having that much of an ego. And there are plenty of driven businessmen who have an insufferable ego.

I agree that it is very difficult to relate to the riches of a professional athlete, but not everybody is Lebron James or Tom Brady. Many of them are like you and me that were just born with incredible gifts, and were able to use those gifts to their advantage.

In Grant Williams' case, the dude definitely has a chip on his shoulder because of his size and lack of traditional athleticism, but he also seems to appreciate feeling part of a community. Of course he is going to do what is best for him and his family, but he might decide that staying in Boston competing for championships for years for $13M/yr is worth more to him than wasting away in OKC for $16M/yr. We just don't know, though.

[Goldstar88]

Somewhere in the 4 years, 56-64M range makes sense.

I agree, he would start on a lot of teams. This looks like a starter's pay. He is young, smart, has no injury history, and doesn't get in the trouble of the court.

Which teams do you think he would start on?

He’s not starting on Bucks, 76ers, Raptors, Bulls, Nets, Hawks, Cavs, Hornets, Knicks, Pistons, Magic.

Is he starting over Kuzma or Hachimura for the Wiz? I don’t think so. Pacers over Jalen Smith? Maybe. So  potentially one team in the East.

[liam]

Somewhere in the 4 years, 56-64M range makes sense.

I agree, he would start on a lot of teams. This looks like a starter's pay. He is young, smart, has no injury history, and doesn't get in the trouble of the court.

Which teams do you think he would start on?

He’s not starting on Bucks, 76ers, Raptors, Bulls, Nets, Hawks, Cavs, Hornets, Knicks, Pistons, Magic.

Is he starting over Kuzma or Hachimura for the Wiz? I don’t think so. Pacers over Jalen Smith? Maybe. So  potentially one team in the East.

Grant is an Elite 3 point shooter and strong switchable defender. He's also an elite free throw shooter and a great teammate. He's also tough as a two dollar steak. He'd start on many teams just for the spacing and defense he brings.