JT > PP

[timpiker]

Ask me again in 5 years. 

[sgrogan]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

[Moranis]

Hats off to Sam Jones there, doing it without the 3PT shot.

unless they shoot like Steph Curry the 3 point shot generally leads to less overall points scored

How so?  50% 2PT shooting is equivalent to 33.3% shooting on the same number of shots.

If your theory is right, doesn’t every team in the NBA presently have it wrong?

I went through the numbers with Lebron on here not that long ago.  Lebron would have scored significantly more points if he turned all his 3 point attempts into 2 point attempts and that doesn't account for the attempts he gets fouled on which he would get way more of on 2 pointers than 3 pointers.  Now maybe Lebron is just way different than a lot of guys because of his excellent 2 point percentage, but I suspect without the 3 point shot someone like Tatum would be well over a 50% shooter from 2 and would really just take better percentage shots. 

Role players though I think are different. They are better shooting the 3 just by the nature of their skill set.  They can't get the buckets as easily.

That's because Lebron has shot 2PTs around 60% for much of his prime.  You need to hit 3PTs at 40% to match that, even without taking into account fouls. 

Tatum isn't at that level, at least not yet.  He shoots 2PTs around 50%; 52% this season.

This is what efg% measures.
If efg% < 2P% the 3's are hurting.
This year Tatum shot a career low 3P% on career high volume, while simultaneously shooting a career high 2P%
Yet is efg% (.526) > 2P% (.524)
What is interesting is league wide, for the first time in at least 20 yrs, efg% (.532) < 2p% (.533)

but he gets fouled at a much greater frequency on 2 point attempts, getting all those extra free points at the line.  That is where the straight analysis lacks. 

[sgrogan]

Hats off to Sam Jones there, doing it without the 3PT shot.

unless they shoot like Steph Curry the 3 point shot generally leads to less overall points scored

How so?  50% 2PT shooting is equivalent to 33.3% shooting on the same number of shots.

If your theory is right, doesn’t every team in the NBA presently have it wrong?

I went through the numbers with Lebron on here not that long ago.  Lebron would have scored significantly more points if he turned all his 3 point attempts into 2 point attempts and that doesn't account for the attempts he gets fouled on which he would get way more of on 2 pointers than 3 pointers.  Now maybe Lebron is just way different than a lot of guys because of his excellent 2 point percentage, but I suspect without the 3 point shot someone like Tatum would be well over a 50% shooter from 2 and would really just take better percentage shots. 

Role players though I think are different. They are better shooting the 3 just by the nature of their skill set.  They can't get the buckets as easily.

That's because Lebron has shot 2PTs around 60% for much of his prime.  You need to hit 3PTs at 40% to match that, even without taking into account fouls. 

Tatum isn't at that level, at least not yet.  He shoots 2PTs around 50%; 52% this season.

This is what efg% measures.
If efg% < 2P% the 3's are hurting.
This year Tatum shot a career low 3P% on career high volume, while simultaneously shooting a career high 2P%
Yet is efg% (.526) > 2P% (.524)
What is interesting is league wide, for the first time in at least 20 yrs, efg% (.532) < 2p% (.533)

but he gets fouled at a much greater frequency on 2 point attempts, getting all those extra free points at the line.  That is where the straight analysis lacks.

This probably needs it own thread but...
For Tatum this may be true but...
As a developing player Tatum's FTr has increased at the same time his 3PAr has increased.
League wide over the 5-6 yrs. FTr has gone down as 3PAr has gone up. 3P% has fluctuated around 36%. 2P%, efg% and TS% have trended up.

[Big333223]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

[Who]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

[Donoghus]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

[Roy H.]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

I'd put $20 down on Marcus, just because.

I wonder what Iguodala's odds were that year he won.

EDIT:  Apparently +12500

[Donoghus]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

I'd put $20 down on Marcus, just because.

I wonder what Iguodala's odds were that year he won.

EDIT:  Apparently +12500

Sheesh.  I have to imagine he's the longest shot to ever win the award. 

It's almost always legacy and/or top star on winning team.

EDIT:  I wonder what the odds on Max in '81 would've been.

[Moranis]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

I'd put $20 down on Marcus, just because.

I wonder what Iguodala's odds were that year he won.

EDIT:  Apparently +12500

That was probably a series later as well. 

Doncic seems like the best bet, because even if the Mavs lose the Finals there is a good chance he has far superior stats to the best guy on the winning team.  Unlikely to get it when losing (I mean if Iggy can win it over Lebron that year, the odds are astronomically small), but he clearly has the best shot to win it as a loser.  More importantly, Luka is clearly winning the award if the Mavs do actually win the title.  No other team can you definitively say that about (like Bam, Klay or Dray, or Brown could all easily win if their team wins it). 

[Roy H.]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

I'd put $20 down on Marcus, just because.

I wonder what Iguodala's odds were that year he won.

EDIT:  Apparently +12500

That was probably a series later as well. 

Doncic seems like the best bet, because even if the Mavs lose the Finals there is a good chance he has far superior stats to the best guy on the winning team.  Unlikely to get it when losing (I mean if Iggy can win it over Lebron that year, the odds are astronomically small), but he clearly has the best shot to win it as a loser.  More importantly, Luka is clearly winning the award if the Mavs do actually win the title.  No other team can you definitively say that about (like Bam, Klay or Dray, or Brown could all easily win if their team wins it).

Not expecting Dinwiddie to go nuclear, eh?  Haha.

[Celtics2021]

Ask me again in 5 years.

Ask me again in 5 weeks
Its not inconceivable that Tatum could add
1st Team All-NBA
Finals MVP
Champion
to his resume.

Yeah, this question is potentially going to be even more interesting very soon. There's potential here for Tatum to complete a better individual season than Pierce ever put together. I'm eager to see how it all shakes out.

Tatum is the odds on favourite for Finals MVP right now.

24 years old.

Draftkings has the following.

Curry + +180
Tatum +220
Butler +550
Doncic ++550
Brown +1800
Klay +2000
Poole +2000
Draymond +2000
Bam +2500
Marcus +5000

Then a bunch of guys from +7000 to +30000

I'd put $20 down on Marcus, just because.

I wonder what Iguodala's odds were that year he won.

EDIT:  Apparently +12500

That was probably a series later as well. 

Doncic seems like the best bet, because even if the Mavs lose the Finals there is a good chance he has far superior stats to the best guy on the winning team.  Unlikely to get it when losing (I mean if Iggy can win it over Lebron that year, the odds are astronomically small), but he clearly has the best shot to win it as a loser.  More importantly, Luka is clearly winning the award if the Mavs do actually win the title.  No other team can you definitively say that about (like Bam, Klay or Dray, or Brown could all easily win if their team wins it).

The only time a losing player won Finals MVP was Jerry West in 1969.  Luka is going to have win the title to win the award.  Roy is right that Smart is a better bet, because the Celtics are far likelier to win than the Mavs, and Marcus plays the type of game that can drive the narrative to win an MVP without scoring, for example if he shuts down Luka or Curry while getting a reasonable number of points and assists.

I’d put my money on Tatum before Luka even with those odds, because the C’a are far more likely to win than Dallas.

[Donoghus]

I don't think you're ever gonna see a losing player win Finals MVP again. 

The concept of it is utterly stupid to begin with.

[nickagneta]

here's a fun one

how far does Tatum have to go to match Doncic

I'm 100% convinced that in the near future Luka and Tatum will be the two best players in the NBA.

I'm very high on Tatum, but I don't see him surpassing Luka / Giannis / Jokic, much less in the near future.

------------------------

Imo, Luka is on his way to become a GOAT candidate. Don't see the Bird comps tbh. He's far more ball dominant than Bird and a worse shooter. Closest comparison I can think of is a (super) rich man's Harden. Or maybe a craftier version of LeBron with better BBIQ/court vision, but without LeBron's athleticism. If he ever develops a consistent 40%+ 3pt shot, I believe he can surpass LeBron (at least peak-wise, cause LeBron's longevity is hard to be matched).

That's all said and good, but 4-5 years from now when Luka and Tatum will be 27-29 years old and have been playing in multiple NBA Finals each, I think they will be considered the two best

A dream scenario of mine? Maybe. But I think it's a very likely scenario as well. I mean, with all due respect to Embiid and Jokic, but can you be considered a top 2  NBA player if you can't get past the 2nd round of the playoffs, for the most part? They might win MVPs, but that won't make them best players in the world if two other guys are going to the Finals and winning chips and not them.

[Ed Monix]

With 26 tonight, the inaugural Larry Bird ECF MVP Jayson Tatum passed Kevin Durant and Tony Parker into 3rd on the NBA’s all-time playoff scoring list for players under the age of 25.

First among players who entered the league at 19 or older.



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Source: Sean Grande