I am surprised so many feel so good about Ayton's game. I haven't really seen much growth in his game and have watched him go into turtle mode way too many times in playoff games to be willing to throw max money at the guy.
Also, he has missed 72 of 308 regular season games. That's an availability of only 3 out of 4 games. Not very good.
Now Timelord's availability is even worse, but TL is making just $12 million per over the next 4 years and I like his game more and feel he is still growing as a player. Ayton gives me the impression he has plateaued.
I wouldn’t be so quick to judge Ayton as having plateaued. He would be far from the first player who had a disappointing fourth year after having a contentious and unsuccessful extension negotiation the prior summer. As examples we’ve seen closely, both Marcus and Rozier come quickly to mind. One resigned, one didn’t, but both took major step forwards in their new deals after having had a rough fourth year.
He hasn't really improved much since his rookie year. He did some in his sophomore season but little to none since. And as I said, he has turtled a bunch in the playoffs in important games.
He is a #1 pick and has certain expectations because of that and I don't think he is meeting those expectations.
As nebist said, there is something off about the guy. Mental approach? Toughness? Dedication to improvement? Environment? Not sure if it's those things or something else, but something is off that would make me hesitate in giving him a max deal. Rather have TL for less than half the money but almost 95% of the production.
I agree with some of this and disagree with some of this.
I'll start with disagree. The dedication to improvement. Ayton has improved considerably since coming into the league. He was one of the worst defensive centers in the league as a rookie. He was an Enes Kanter level defender. He grew into a passable defender with potential by his second year and into one of the better defensive centers in his 3rd year. That is a massive amount of improvement and it came from a firm dedication to improving his defense. He focused heavily on that.
Ayton is also known as a hard worker who is constantly working on his game and trying to grow as a player. He is the type of guy like a Jaylen Brown or a Paul Millsap who I would expect to continue showing growth for years to come.
The parts I agree with. Lack of toughness + passivity. This is a real problem for Ayton and why I doubt he ever becomes a franchise level talent despite his physical gifts and good skill-level. The passivity in particularly bothers me.
He has been far too quick to settle into a "Tyson Chandler" type role on offense. He hasn't been assertive enough in looking for his own shots. In demanding he has a place within the offense. That the need to make room for him. It can't all be CP3 & Booker. And he has been far to passive in looking for the ball despite opportunities to do so in games. Furthermore, he hasn't been assertive enough in using his physical advantages over opponents (offensively) especially on switches.
This is a real problem and why I see Ayton more as a 3rd option than the main guy or even a secondary guy. Small chance he can become a secondary guy but I wouldn't bet on it. I am happy betting on him as a 3rd guy though and I am perfectly comfortable in giving the max to a 3rd guy.
