Summer 2021 Fantasy Draft: Draft Thread

[tazzmaniac]

The Memphis Grizzlies select Serge Ibaka

[Who]

Ibaka is an awesome pick.

[theswitch]

Ibaka is an awesome pick.

Agreed...thought about him earlier. But I'd hesitate to list him at the power forward spot. I think he's a terrific backup center option who can hold up on 15-20 minutes a game health-wise, defend the interior, and spread the floor. I'm not sure he's the right backup for Randle. I'd rather play Bojan there and live with that, but I guess it might depend on the situation.

[RPGenerate]

Imo Ibaka would be a decent pick on a different team. He really can't play PF anymore. He's too slow, plus he had a bit of a down year last year in terms of three point shooting.

[Somebody]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

[tazzmaniac]

Ibaka is an awesome pick.

Agreed...thought about him earlier. But I'd hesitate to list him at the power forward spot. I think he's a terrific backup center option who can hold up on 15-20 minutes a game health-wise, defend the interior, and spread the floor. I'm not sure he's the right backup for Randle. I'd rather play Bojan there and live with that, but I guess it might depend on the situation.

Basketball-reference shows Ibaka last playing a lot of PF 3 years ago so I moved him to the center line. 

[Who]

I love it when Giannis does one of those finger roll moves on the drive. He looks so much like Dr J in the way he contort his body and finish in the lane with grace.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

The guy is a defensive turnstile with a banged up knee and on the wrong side of 30. I was ok with the Celtics trading him for a bag of chips.

[wdleehi]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

In a league like this where it is hard to hide someone on defense, does he provide enough offense to take the defensive hit?   Two years ago, definitely.   Now, the may be a lot of questions.

[Roy H.]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

The guy is a defensive turnstile with a banged up knee and on the wrong side of 30. I was ok with the Celtics trading him for a bag of chips.

Yeah.  Great guy, but I’m not expecting to see vintage Kemba except in spurts. 

[Somebody]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

The guy is a defensive turnstile with a banged up knee and on the wrong side of 30. I was ok with the Celtics trading him for a bag of chips.

Defensive turnstile who posted a positive value in most adjusted plus-minus metrics this year and still pumped out fringe All-Star value on offence (especially after he got his sea legs back) - here are Kemba's numbers after his dismal first 10 games last season:

Box stats - 20.6/+1.6% PPG to rTS, 23.6%/11.1% assist rate to TO rate
Adjusted plus-minus - +2.6 OEPM (94th percentile), +0.1 DEPM (63rd percentile), +2.7 EPM (85th percentile), +3.5 ORAPTOR (27th in the league), +0.4 DRAPTOR (tied for 16th among point guards)

Before you start nitpicking the list of names in those metrics to dismiss them as stuff made up by nerds that are infinitely worse than the basic box score in measuring a player's value, there's definitely some noise to single-year APM (it only estimates a player's situational value in that given year, which can either go wrong because of wonky lineup data or poor situation/fit for the player in question), but the fact that Kemba produced such numbers in a situation that everyone and their grandmother on this forum screamed was far from ideal speaks volumes to his quality. And before the narratives of statistics lying about how good a player is start flooding in, the numbers jive with the eye test. Kemba was still a dangerous PnR ballhandler who strains defences with his ability to pull up for three on high volume and good efficiency (he shot 37.4% on 8.5 attempts after his first 10 games), drive to the basket for layups or floaters, counter defences running him off the line and sitting in the paint with a quality in-between game and find open teammates if defences collapse on him. On defence, he's active both as a man and team defender, makes good rotations (his ability to take charges is elite) and does a decent job at staying in front of his man as a point-of-attack defender. I completely understand scepticism about him if someone drafted him to start for their team, but how many backup PGs in this format are better than Kemba Walker as a basketball player? Good offence and decent defence, what more do you want for someone to run your offence for roughly 10-15 MPG?

[Roy H.]

Surprised that people don't rate Kemba - he was still fairly good last season and I expect him to make the contract New York signed him on the best bargain deal in the NBA.

The guy is a defensive turnstile with a banged up knee and on the wrong side of 30. I was ok with the Celtics trading him for a bag of chips.

Defensive turnstile who posted a positive value in most adjusted plus-minus metrics this year and still pumped out fringe All-Star value on offence (especially after he got his sea legs back) - here are Kemba's numbers after his dismal first 10 games last season:

Box stats - 20.6/+1.6% PPG to rTS, 23.6%/11.1% assist rate to TO rate
Adjusted plus-minus - +2.6 OEPM (94th percentile), +0.1 DEPM (63rd percentile), +2.7 EPM (85th percentile), +3.5 ORAPTOR (27th in the league), +0.4 DRAPTOR (tied for 16th among point guards)

Before you start nitpicking the list of names in those metrics to dismiss them as stuff made up by nerds that are infinitely worse than the basic box score in measuring a player's value, there's definitely some noise to single-year APM (it only estimates a player's situational value in that given year, which can either go wrong because of wonky lineup data or poor situation/fit for the player in question), but the fact that Kemba produced such numbers in a situation that everyone and their grandmother on this forum screamed was far from ideal speaks volumes to his quality. And before the narratives of statistics lying about how good a player is start flooding in, the numbers jive with the eye test. Kemba was still a dangerous PnR ballhandler who strains defences with his ability to pull up for three on high volume and good efficiency (he shot 37.4% on 8.5 attempts after his first 10 games), drive to the basket for layups or floaters, counter defences running him off the line and sitting in the paint with a quality in-between game and find open teammates if defences collapse on him. On defence, he's active both as a man and team defender, makes good rotations (his ability to take charges is elite) and does a decent job at staying in front of his man as a point-of-attack defender. I completely understand scepticism about him if someone drafted him to start for their team, but how many backup PGs in this format are better than Kemba Walker as a basketball player? Good offence and decent defence, what more do you want for someone to run your offence for roughly 10-15 MPG?

I do in fact think most of those metrics are lists made up by nerds that don't really hold up.  There are so many outliers that the use of those metrics is essentially meaningless.  And, I think the "decent defence" claim strains credibility.  He played below-average defense his first few months here.  Then he hurt his knee, and he was downright bad.  I would argue sub-IT, sub-Kyrie bad.

But, those observations aside, he's a nice player to have on a team regarding his leadership and for his overall good offensive play.  But, what confidence can anybody have that he can play in back to back games, or be healthy for the playoffs?  The Celts babied him all last season, and he was still unhealthy when it counted. 

[Who]

Earlier in the summer I felt that there was a large number of folks on this site who seemed to feel that Kemba was going to be worse next season. That he was in decline and going to keep declining and possibly decline fast.

I for one was shocked that OKC bought out Kemba. I thought there was a real opportunity to rebuild his trade value by waiting and seeing if he can produce on the court. I liked Kemba's chances of doing that (he improved as the season went on last year). That OKC did not gives me pause. They pulled the plug on Kemba as fast as they could. For team famous for trying to get any type draft assets possible in return for players, that was eye popping.

Overall, I like Kemba for IRL Knicks. I am not sure what I think of him in this 12 team CB League. Competition is a lot tougher. I haven't made up my mind on him. I did have him listed as a 3rd string PG candidate rather than a rotation player on my draft board.

For your team, I am not sure what Kemba adds is that valuable given that you already have Conley and VanVleet & a playmaking wing in Jimmy Butler. That is uncertainty rather than negative or positive. I just don't have a picture in my head yet of how the team will work.

[nickagneta]

Some players, no matter there quality, have never rated well in these games and having one on your team is usually a sign you won't stand a chance of winning. Iverson was one. Monte Ellis another. Kobe another prime example. I have two such players currently on my team. I think Kyrie and Kemba have probably entered that group of players, which is too bad for Kemba because I really liked him as a Celtic, as a player, as a leader and as a person.

[Roy H.]

Some players, no matter there quality, have never rated well in these games and having one on your team is usually a sign you won't stand a chance of winning. Iverson was one. Monte Ellis another. Kobe another prime example. I have two such players currently on my team. I think Kyrie and Kemba have probably entered that group of players, which is too bad for Kemba because I really liked him as a Celtic, as a player, as a leader and as a person.

Who is your second?  Westbrook, for sure.  I know that Lebron hung at least one CrotoNat championship banner, though.  So did Kyrie. 

I think your team is going to be just fine.  I don't love Westbrook as a pick -- I think he takes away as much as he brings -- but the rest of your team is very well-constructed and fits together so well that Westbrook shouldn't drag your team down at all.

Kyrie...   He's got some negatives.  A bad reputation with teammates and coaches.  He's flaky.  He's a beta.  He's injury prone.  He plays terrible defense.  He might quit on your team.  But, when he's on, he's an offensive savant who can carry a team for weeks at a time.  How do you assess for that in a draft like that?  It's hard to say, but if a team has a strong culture, it probably helps.

Kemba, what can you say?   He's good (not great) offensively, and bad defensively.  Most importantly, though, he just can't be relied upon.  If Kemba plays 75+ games next season, he'll gain a lot of his value back.