Summer 2021 Fantasy Draft: Draft Thread

[Roy H.]

The Klay dilemma was also driving me bananas and will have me second-guessing for a while. I ended up oddly going with Roy's thought process on picking Klay that early, despite amazing fits, meant I likely would be taken out of the running -- of course I may have done that anyways with an even riskier pick 

At the end of the day, my gut is that Klay will return to where he was but it's hard to make the argument directly in this format.

I do feel that the heights he was at prior to his injury (All-NBA calibre wing imo) do make it easier to envision him still being a high impact player next year even after two devastating injuries.

I’m curious, is there any precedent with a guy suffering two back-to-back injuries so severe?

I’m sure there are several, but the only guy I can immediately think of is Boogie.

[Who]

When I was looking up Klay's return date prior to the draft, I came across this interesting article on Sky Sports.

An Achilles tear is widely considered the most devastating injury an NBA player can sustain. It has sabotaged playing careers and often ended them entirely. The injury forced Elgin Baylor and Isiah Thomas into premature retirements and hampered the final years of Patrick Ewing and Kobe Bryant in the league. Talent makes no difference.

More recently, it has completely derailed All-Star performers such as Elton Brand, [Not named draft candidate], DeMarcus Cousins as well as role players like [Not named draft candidate] and Wesley Matthews, none of whom have been able to recapture anywhere near the same level they showed before the injury.

Of 18 players who suffered major Achilles injuries between 1988 and 2011, seven of them never returned to play in the NBA. According to a report published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, analysing 47 players who suffered Achilles tears between 1970 and 2019, those who returned had shorter careers and decreased performance relative to how they played before the injury.

Typically, this was a 20 to 40 percent decrease in productivity in their first season back, with an overall return to between 80 and 85 percent of their pre-injury level. Fewer minutes are averaged, while field goal and three-point percentages also plummet.

At the elite level, that 10 to 15 percent might well be the difference between a max contract and a veteran minimum. In the history of the league, it is only Dominique Wilkins and now Durant who have managed to return to their peak levels after tearing their Achilles.

This means expectations for Thompson should still be tempered, even if, as his former teammate has shown, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

[Somebody]

The Klay dilemma was also driving me bananas and will have me second-guessing for a while. I ended up oddly going with Roy's thought process on picking Klay that early, despite amazing fits, meant I likely would be taken out of the running -- of course I may have done that anyways with an even riskier pick 

At the end of the day, my gut is that Klay will return to where he was but it's hard to make the argument directly in this format.

I do feel that the heights he was at prior to his injury (All-NBA calibre wing imo) do make it easier to envision him still being a high impact player next year even after two devastating injuries.

I’m curious, is there any precedent with a guy suffering two back-to-back injuries so severe?

I’m sure there are several, but the only guy I can immediately think of is Boogie.

*** comes to mind (he's still a really nice player nowadays - volume scorer and playmaker who can do some considerable floor-raising in lineups devoid of on-ball creation), and he tore his knee twice when the NBA was still transitioning towards what it is today (I think the medical side of the game has improved a ton since the early 2010s as well). Throw in the fact how his game is so heavily reliant on athleticism and I think there's a pretty convincing case for Klay that he can still play at a pretty high level.

[Donoghus]

The Klay dilemma was also driving me bananas and will have me second-guessing for a while. I ended up oddly going with Roy's thought process on picking Klay that early, despite amazing fits, meant I likely would be taken out of the running -- of course I may have done that anyways with an even riskier pick 

At the end of the day, my gut is that Klay will return to where he was but it's hard to make the argument directly in this format.

I do feel that the heights he was at prior to his injury (All-NBA calibre wing imo) do make it easier to envision him still being a high impact player next year even after two devastating injuries.

I’m curious, is there any precedent with a guy suffering two back-to-back injuries so severe?

I’m sure there are several, but the only guy I can immediately think of is Boogie.

Manning had 3 ACL injuries but more spaced out.

[Somebody]

When I was looking up Klay's return date prior to the draft, I came across this interesting article on Sky Sports.

An Achilles tear is widely considered the most devastating injury an NBA player can sustain. It has sabotaged playing careers and often ended them entirely. The injury forced Elgin Baylor and Isiah Thomas into premature retirements and hampered the final years of Patrick Ewing and Kobe Bryant in the league. Talent makes no difference.

More recently, it has completely derailed All-Star performers such as Elton Brand, [Not named draft candidate], DeMarcus Cousins as well as role players like [Not named draft candidate] and Wesley Matthews, none of whom have been able to recapture anywhere near the same level they showed before the injury.

Of 18 players who suffered major Achilles injuries between 1988 and 2011, seven of them never returned to play in the NBA. According to a report published in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, analysing 47 players who suffered Achilles tears between 1970 and 2019, those who returned had shorter careers and decreased performance relative to how they played before the injury.

Typically, this was a 20 to 40 percent decrease in productivity in their first season back, with an overall return to between 80 and 85 percent of their pre-injury level. Fewer minutes are averaged, while field goal and three-point percentages also plummet.

At the elite level, that 10 to 15 percent might well be the difference between a max contract and a veteran minimum. In the history of the league, it is only Dominique Wilkins and now Durant who have managed to return to their peak levels after tearing their Achilles.

This means expectations for Thompson should still be tempered, even if, as his former teammate has shown, there is plenty of cause for optimism.

I mean the game back in 2011 was vastly different from what it is today. Crazy to think that a decade can bring so much change to a sport, but it's true - the game has advanced by leaps and bounds in almost every single aspect.

[Who]

I am excited to see what happens with Klay's return. Have we had some sort of medical improvement in treating achilles injuries?

We had one for knee injuries. They used to be career enders. Then career changers. Now most guys come back at close to full strength from them.

[Somebody]

I am excited to see what happens with Klay's return. Have we had some sort of medical improvement in treating achilles injuries?

We had one for knee injuries. They used to be career enders. Then career changers. Now most guys come back at close to full strength from them.

We haven't, but we have better rehabilitation schedules/programmes that aim to improve recovery in athletes, as well as stuff like stem-cell injections if you buy that they work.

[nickagneta]

The Klay dilemma was also driving me bananas and will have me second-guessing for a while. I ended up oddly going with Roy's thought process on picking Klay that early, despite amazing fits, meant I likely would be taken out of the running -- of course I may have done that anyways with an even riskier pick 

At the end of the day, my gut is that Klay will return to where he was but it's hard to make the argument directly in this format.

I do feel that the heights he was at prior to his injury (All-NBA calibre wing imo) do make it easier to envision him still being a high impact player next year even after two devastating injuries.

I’m curious, is there any precedent with a guy suffering two back-to-back injuries so severe?

I’m sure there are several, but the only guy I can immediately think of is Boogie.

Derrick Rose comes to mind (he's still a really nice player nowadays - volume scorer and playmaker who can do some considerable floor-raising in lineups devoid of on-ball creation), and he tore his knee twice when the NBA was still transitioning towards what it is today (I think the medical side of the game has improved a ton since the early 2010s as well). Throw in the fact how his game is so heavily reliant on athleticism and I think there's a pretty convincing case for Klay that he can still play at a pretty high level.

NAMES...please filter out.

[nickagneta]

As far back as I can remember, only two players blew out their Achilles and returned at levels they played at beforehand: Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Durant. And that's going back 40-45 years or so.

I stated my evaluation process on this before the draft. If players are going to miss major time next year, up to being out all year, or are returning after being out a year or so, those teams trying to argue their health will be looked at less positively by me.

I think expecting Klay to return to his previous quality level of play after missing 2 whole seasons recuperating from 2 severe injuries is wishful thinking. Hayward broke his leg and took 1 and a half seasons of play before returning to his former self. That to me is a very realistic outcome for Klay.

[tazzmaniac]

Using any case before this decade is pretty worthless.  The medical advancement has just been so great lately. 

Embiid is an example of back-to-back severe injuries.  Breaking his foot in college and then breaking it again during the recovery.     

[nickagneta]

Using any case before this decade is pretty worthless.  The medical advancement has just been so great lately. 

Embiid is an example of back-to-back severe injuries.  Breaking his foot in college and then breaking it again during the recovery.   

Any doctor worth anything will tell you, unless the bone break is catastrophic, you will always heal faster and most likely recover to 100% capabilities faster and better than you would for major tears or ruptures of muscles and ligaments.

So Embiid isn't really relevant.

And though medicine has progressed much over the decades, when it comes to Achilles injuries, the outcome hasn't really progressed in that people don't return to 100% capabilities afterward. As I stated, really the only ones ever to return 100% are Wilkins and Durant. That's over the last 35 years and yes, includes the time span of recent medical advancements.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

If somebody is trying to “win” this draft, Klay is probably too much of a question mark.  I felt the same way about the Kawhi selection.

If the goal is to build a personally satisfying squad that somebody feels good about, then I think both are great picks.

I'm definitely not going to get caught up with making medical projections. If that puts me in the latter category, I'm in.

There seem to be a lot of strong opinions about injuries here. What analysts do you guys follow for medical reports? Is there a Stephania Bell for the NBA?

[tazzmaniac]

If somebody is trying to “win” this draft, Klay is probably too much of a question mark.  I felt the same way about the Kawhi selection.

If the goal is to build a personally satisfying squad that somebody feels good about, then I think both are great picks.

I'm definitely not going to get caught up with making medical projections. If that puts me in the latter category, I'm in.

There seem to be a lot of strong opinions about injuries here. What analysts do you guys follow for medical reports? Is there a Stephania Bell for the NBA?

I'm using  https://www.cbssports.com/nba/injuries/. 

[gouki88]

The fourth round will commence in 1 hour

[gouki88]

Let's get drafting! Indiana (wdleehi) is on the clock with back-to-back picks