To add to the earlier posts on Mo's defense, or lack there of.... this appeared in SoSH's discussion of the trade.
tl;dr - Mo maybe German, but he ain't Theis. Weak defense, loads of turnovers, and lots and lots of fouls....hmmm, maybe he is a bit like Theis.
2018 Pre-Draft Scouting Report
"Wagner's obvious draw is his solid jump shot for a near 7-footer. He made 63 threes in 39 games and shot over 39 percent from that range for the second consecutive season. Wagner made 24 pick-and-pop jumpers, though he was even more efficient when rolling to the basket, making 18 of 22 attempts. He also showed the ability to attack closeouts and score on the move, having converted 14 of 22 drives to the hoop out of spot-ups. Wagner also did a nice job of timing his cuts to the basket and finishing (25-of-32).
Offensive weaknesses
Wagner only graded out in the 38th percentile in post-ups, as he struggled against physicality. He finished in the 37th percentile out of isolation. Playing 27.6 minutes per game, he totaled 33 assists. If his jumper isn't falling, it'll most likely be an ineffective performance from Wagner. It's also easy to question if his heavier feet will prevent him from beating defenders off the dribble or finishing at the rim.
Defensive outlook
Defense could be an issue. Wagner graded in the 27th percentile when guarding the post, where opponents easily scored through him and pushed him off his ground. He wasn't much better around the perimeter (36th percentile in spot-ups). Wagner will struggle with closeouts, and he seems unlikely to be switchable in pick-and-roll coverage.
Rookie-year projectionHe could see minutes as a rookie just for his ability to stretch the floor. He'll help improve spacing and add a shot-maker to the frontcourt. He'll likely do a lot of spotting up and less post or inside work. And he won't be able to play long stretches due to his defense.
Projected role: Stretch-big reserve
Just as we saw with Kaminsky, Wagner's lack of athleticism and toughness down low will keep his ceiling in check. He won't be able to pull off some of the moves in the NBA we saw him execute in college. However, bigs who can shoot are always in demand. And though Kaminsky isn't a must-start player, he's bound to last just for his three-ball. Wagner can do the same while offering more intensity and competitiveness. "
Wizards Player Evaluations
"
Per our analytics guru, Kevin Broom, Wagner is an elite charge-drawer (I never heard this term before, but there it is). He led the league with 1.70 charges drawn per 48 minutes and was 4th in total charges drawn (27).
(Makes me think of another Wizards (#12 instead of #21) that took pride in that department until being shipped unceremoniously to Phoenix by Ernie and Tommy. I’m not saying Wagner will be traded, but it does seem likely.)
Wagner can also shoot from deep although his accuracy in the NBA hasn’t matched what he did in college.
At Michigan he averaged better than 39% on threes in his sophomore and junior years. But then his accuracy (and volume) took a hit in the NBA: about 28% in his first season, and 31% this past year (both years on 1.8 attempts/game). This is an improvement, but still far from NBA level for a player in his role (stretch 4 or backup 5).
But there are other positives in the shooting department. Wagner is a solid FT shooter at over 82% (for comparison, that’s better than Bradley Beal at the same point in his career). A lot of times, there is correlation between free throw shooting and three-point shooting, and Wagner is still young. Moreover, what I find impressive is that he improved his FT shooting in the NBA — he was a 70% FT shooter at Michigan. This does signify he is a hard worker, at least in my eyes.
When you look at Wagner’s FG% things look better: he’s shooting 54.5% compared to 41.5% in his rookie year.
Fouling, turnovers: the argument against
As the Wizards defense this year was historically bad, it may be harder to put in perspective the following stats, but they do raise red flags. According to Kevin Broom,
Fouling is a BIG issue with Wagner. He committed 8.5 fouls per 100 team possessions — 2nd most in the league among players with at least 500 minutes.Turnovers are also a problem. He was at 3.7 per 100 team possessions, 8th highest in the league among players with at least 500 minutes.
I didn’t run the numbers when Wagner did not share the floor with IT, but it probably is worth doing to get a more effective measurement of just how much these issues are big.
ConclusionInconclusive.
It’s great Tommy Sheppard brought him here (and reportedly also for draft workouts in 2018) but it’s unfortunate his development has not been too visible.
Since Wagner has another year on his contract, I don’t see him going anywhere in the near future as his trade value has plummeted. But he could potentially be part of a larger draft day trade as his salary is non-negligible. There is no doubt in my mind that he can be a solid rotation NBA player, but I have also serious doubts he can develop to that role in D.C. given the limitations and focus of Brooks."
Topic: Theis & Green to Chicago for Mo Wagner & Luke Kornet...Teague to ORL... (Read 17821 times)