Do you have faith?

[Phantom255x]

Idk, call this an extremely pessimistic take...

But would it actually be better to miss the playoffs entirely?? I mean right now they are only 1 game ahead of the current 9 seed, right in the mix with a bunch of teams around .500. Maybe then, there’ll be more urgency going into the offseason, and a bit more pressure on Ainge and Stevens.

Because right now, this team just feels like it’s filled with personnel who think they are better than everyone else, and filled with guys who seem to think they have 100% safe jobs so they don’t have to take the extra steps. And yes, I put Ainge and Stevens in that mix. It’s not just Tatum, Brown and the players.

I’m not saying you have to fire Brad and/or Ainge right now, but surely they’ve got to at least have warmer seats… right?? This is inexcusable.

We all know what’ll happen come playoff time. Maybe they win a first round series if they match up against a favorable opponent, but then lose quickly in 4 or 5 the next round to any of MIL/BKN/PHI. Hell, I think even a team like Indiana or even Charlotte FFS could beat us in a playoff series

[slamtheking]

at this point, all I have faith in is Tatum and Brown being solid cornerstones on which to build this team. 

I'm optimistic that Timelord, Pritchard, Nesmith and hopefully Romeo can become solid rotation players for us.  I'm hopeful Smart can take that final step to being a key piece for us by reducing the number of boneheaded plays he makes each game. 

I'm losing faith in GWill, TT and Theis being able to make solid contributions game in and game out.  One game one or more may play well and then we go several games with nothing good or some decent play but more mistakes than positive plays. 

I'm losing faith in Brad as a coach and Danny as a GM.  I've only gotten occasionally frustrated with Brad in prior seasons but this year he just seems to be pushing all the wrong buttons with this team to get them playing well.  This past draft Danny yet again had a multitude of picks but clearly mismanaged those assets with the trading of the Bane pick for basically nothing.  Would have been much more useful to the team than Edwards, Green or Waters.

Finally, I'm losing faith in Kemba.  I hoped he'd bounce back this year with all that rest and play like his all-star self (or close to it) but he's been a real disappointment so far.  His shooting's been bad most games.  his ball handling was always below average for a PG and he doesn't really run an offense efficiently.  this year we really needed him to step up with the loss of Hayward but he's giving us much less than he gave us last year.

[GreenWarrior]

Gosh things feel bad around this team right now.  So many factors, and they've all been explained before here and elsewhere.

I'm officially in the "blaming the coach is lazy analysis and firing the coach doesn't really solve any of your problems" camp.  I also think that, even if you can legitimately blame the coach for embarrassing, incredibly frustrating blown leads on a Sunday afternoon, it probably doesn't make sense to give that greater weight than the handful of arguably overachieving playoffs runs the coach has to his name. 

That said ... sometimes a team just needs a change and ... saying goodbye to the coach is usually the easiest one to make.

I've been an optimist about the group at the heart of this team -- Kemba, Smart, Jaylen, Jayson, Theis.  I want to still believe in them.  There are plenty of reasons / excuses for how disappointing this season has been.  Still . . .

Maybe there's just something not right and the only way it's going to get better is if something changes.

I'm kinda losing faith, is the point. 

What about you?

Start of the season I said this team is a 7 or 8 seed. The way this season is going with most teams hovering around 500 we could find ourselves in the lottery again. Yup we're that bad.

Now you say we can't legitimately blame the coach, I on the other hand see nothing but blame for the coach.

In today's game thread I mentioned that the only good thing about this team is win or lose and you can tell how this team loses games.

Then later in the game thread when the collapse was on I said this team deserves to lose this game and someone replied "even when they were up 20?" I said yes! esp. when we were up 20.

I know crazy talk right? But clearly I'm just picking on the coach this proves nothing right?

Well(and I realize I might sound like a broken record for those who have paid attention to my posts) the one constant with this team, esp. in their playoff losses the opposing team goes on a run and we go bombs away and proceed to shoot our way out of the playoffs. It was the same way with the AB teams and it's the way now.

Today's game was the absolute perfect example of what is wrong with this team.

I believe 5 of the 1st 6 shots we took we're 3's or at least jump shots. Then we went on to start hitting and the lead just kept increasing.

The only way we were going to win this game was if we continued to hit those jump shots and that wasn't going to happen because we take too many bad jump shots they just don't fall in those situations... Just like in our playoff losses.

So is it the players? I recall plenty saying when we get better players in here(during the AB yrs.) those shots will fall. I'ma go out on a limb here and say brown and tatum are better than mostly every player on those AB teams.

Or is it the coach. During the collapse in this game they listened in a time out and I won't recite everything brad said but he did say "look for great shots"...

Do these guys actually know what a great shot is because it really doesn't seem like it. It seems more like they took it as let's try to take the most difficult shots... because if we make em then they'll be great shots.

I seriously question this, during that time out or any time out brad could have easily said let's go to the basket, let's drive, anything.

This team takes too many jump shots, too many bad jump shots. And these players clearly don't see that. The coach should be able to spot this, the coach should know getting to the free throw line late in the game is how you win in this game.

The coach should be fired.

Ohh and the play that put this game away, zion drove to the basket and got an and 1. Like I said this game was the perfect example.

[Indocelts]

I agree.

Managing big leads is what Brad fails to do over his tenure here, mostly amplified during this season.

As the coach who thrives on analytics, he should have known better the law of average. When you're team is gaining big lead because the 3s going in, then the more you shoot the 3s the more likely it miss. You need to preserve the lead by taking the safer shots, closer to the basket. That's is why having a dominant center is important to be an alternative scoring options rather than keep jacking up 3s.

Imagine you're playing poker and you win big so far. Are you going to bet all of your money and risking losing it all? Or are you start playing it safe by putiing less chips in the table?

Brad has very high IQ running ATO, but he  is an idiot managing big leads.

 

[SparzWizard]

Idk, call this an extremely pessimistic take...

But would it actually be better to miss the playoffs entirely?? I mean right now they are only 1 game ahead of the current 9 seed, right in the mix with a bunch of teams around .500. Maybe then, there’ll be more urgency going into the offseason, and a bit more pressure on Ainge and Stevens.

Because right now, this team just feels like it’s filled with personnel who think they are better than everyone else, and filled with guys who seem to think they have 100% safe jobs so they don’t have to take the extra steps. And yes, I put Ainge and Stevens in that mix. It’s not just Tatum, Brown and the players.

I’m not saying you have to fire Brad and/or Ainge right now, but surely they’ve got to at least have warmer seats… right?? This is inexcusable.

We all know what’ll happen come playoff time. Maybe they win a first round series if they match up against a favorable opponent, but then lose quickly in 4 or 5 the next round to any of MIL/BKN/PHI. Hell, I think even a team like Indiana or even Charlotte FFS could beat us in a playoff series

You HAVE to fire Brad. He is not the answer to this team. This team needs a new direction and a new system. He needs to understand that these guys are not Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green of the Warriors. The offensive system has got to change.

If this team lost to guys like the Wizards, Hawks, and Pelicans....surely they'll get eaten alive by Indy or Charlotte in a 7-game series. C's lucked out with Simmons being hurt last year in the playoffs, followed-by a grueling 7-game series with the Raptors that went down to the wire.

[RodyTur10]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

A better question may be how many games we would have won if Smart was healthy and Walker was not?

A couple of examples:

LA Lakers (1 point loss), Walker: 1-12
Phoenix (9 point loss), Walker: 4-20
New Orleans (5 point loss), Walker: 5-21

[RodyTur10]

team is 5th or 6th in the East talent wise. Measure your expectations.

Eh ... really?

I guess Milwaukee has more talent just because of Giannis.

Brooklyn definitely has more talent.

Philly ... eh?  Embiid is better than our best guys. Simmons is much worse.  Tobias is better RIGHT NOW than Kemba, but is that a forever thing?  The rest of that roster is not very talented.  The Sixers have two things going for them -- their main guys have been healthy, and their supporting cast fits really well around their stars.  Neither of those things have been true for the Celtics this year, but neither of those factors is about talent.


Miami?  No, I don't think Miami is more talented.  They're deeper and more balanced, but they've been struggling even harder than the Celts so far this season.  As long as Jimmy Butler can't shoot and Tyler Herro is closer to a league average shooter than a very good one, the Heat aren't so scary.

Indiana?  I love Sabonis as much as anyone, but no.



All of that said, at this point for a variety of reasons I am kind of expecting this season to end with a first round playoff loss against the Sixers, Bucks, or Nets because the Celts end up with the 5th or 6th seed.

Brooklyn and Milwaukee are without question better and more talented.  Embiid is the best player on either team and that matters a lot.  I wouldn't say Simmons is much worse than Brown, I think they are pretty similar players.  Simmons is still an elite defender, rebounder, and passer.  All great skills for your complimentary star to have.  Harris has been playing great and the rest of the roster is finally constructed well.  They have shooting, defense, and size.  Very nice length, just a well constructed roster.  Howard has been surprisingly good backing up Embiid as well. 

Miami is 10-8 with Butler and 3-9 without him.  They've played 6 straight games on the road against the West (with 1 game left on the trip) and are 3-3 in part because Butler has been out there.  Miami is just a vastly different team with Butler than without him.  They haven't even had Dragic for this West trip either so it isn't like they are full strength.  And the thing is, Butler, Adebayo, and Dragic compare favorably with Tatum, Brown, and Walker (at least right now - given the age I'd take Boston's without much thought for the future), but the Heat are just a lot deeper with Herro, Nunn, Robinson, Olynyk, Iguodala, Achiuwa and that doesn't even account for guys like Bradley and Harkless on the deep bench.  If the two teams met healthy in the playoffs, I'd expect Miami to win just as they did last year. 

Indiana without LeVert and Warren is not better than Boston, but with those 2 it is a much more interesting discussion because that would make the Pacers so much deeper.  I definitely think Tatum is the best player in that series, but it isn't like Sabonis or Brogdon aren't both very good players.

Better and more talented are very different metrics, in my view.

I'm aware that you have always been of the opinion that the Celts are less talented than their peers

always.  come on now.  Boston hasn't had a top 5 player since KG got old.  That just quite simply matters when you are talking about winning things like championships. There is a reason there are like 3 teams in the entire history of the league that have won a title without a top 5 player.

I think the top 5 player criterium is too harsh. There are so many great players in the NBA right now.

I believe you can win a title with either James, Durant, Harden, Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Curry or Leonard as your best player. And I think you can also put Davis, Embiid, Doncic and Lillard in that group. Hell, look at what Butler did last year, throw him in as well. That's 12 players.

[Csfan1984]

Idk, call this an extremely pessimistic take...

But would it actually be better to miss the playoffs entirely?? I mean right now they are only 1 game ahead of the current 9 seed, right in the mix with a bunch of teams around .500. Maybe then, there’ll be more urgency going into the offseason, and a bit more pressure on Ainge and Stevens.

Because right now, this team just feels like it’s filled with personnel who think they are better than everyone else, and filled with guys who seem to think they have 100% safe jobs so they don’t have to take the extra steps. And yes, I put Ainge and Stevens in that mix. It’s not just Tatum, Brown and the players.

I’m not saying you have to fire Brad and/or Ainge right now, but surely they’ve got to at least have warmer seats… right?? This is inexcusable.

We all know what’ll happen come playoff time. Maybe they win a first round series if they match up against a favorable opponent, but then lose quickly in 4 or 5 the next round to any of MIL/BKN/PHI. Hell, I think even a team like Indiana or even Charlotte FFS could beat us in a playoff series

Could be like the Spurs. Just shut down Brown and Kemba. Use TPE and top ten pick to get a 4th star?

[Birdman]

Very little..see what happens at trade deadline & buyouts..Enes Katner is killing it at Portland..Stevens did not use him right

[Moranis]

team is 5th or 6th in the East talent wise. Measure your expectations.

Eh ... really?

I guess Milwaukee has more talent just because of Giannis.

Brooklyn definitely has more talent.

Philly ... eh?  Embiid is better than our best guys. Simmons is much worse.  Tobias is better RIGHT NOW than Kemba, but is that a forever thing?  The rest of that roster is not very talented.  The Sixers have two things going for them -- their main guys have been healthy, and their supporting cast fits really well around their stars.  Neither of those things have been true for the Celtics this year, but neither of those factors is about talent.


Miami?  No, I don't think Miami is more talented.  They're deeper and more balanced, but they've been struggling even harder than the Celts so far this season.  As long as Jimmy Butler can't shoot and Tyler Herro is closer to a league average shooter than a very good one, the Heat aren't so scary.

Indiana?  I love Sabonis as much as anyone, but no.



All of that said, at this point for a variety of reasons I am kind of expecting this season to end with a first round playoff loss against the Sixers, Bucks, or Nets because the Celts end up with the 5th or 6th seed.

Brooklyn and Milwaukee are without question better and more talented.  Embiid is the best player on either team and that matters a lot.  I wouldn't say Simmons is much worse than Brown, I think they are pretty similar players.  Simmons is still an elite defender, rebounder, and passer.  All great skills for your complimentary star to have.  Harris has been playing great and the rest of the roster is finally constructed well.  They have shooting, defense, and size.  Very nice length, just a well constructed roster.  Howard has been surprisingly good backing up Embiid as well. 

Miami is 10-8 with Butler and 3-9 without him.  They've played 6 straight games on the road against the West (with 1 game left on the trip) and are 3-3 in part because Butler has been out there.  Miami is just a vastly different team with Butler than without him.  They haven't even had Dragic for this West trip either so it isn't like they are full strength.  And the thing is, Butler, Adebayo, and Dragic compare favorably with Tatum, Brown, and Walker (at least right now - given the age I'd take Boston's without much thought for the future), but the Heat are just a lot deeper with Herro, Nunn, Robinson, Olynyk, Iguodala, Achiuwa and that doesn't even account for guys like Bradley and Harkless on the deep bench.  If the two teams met healthy in the playoffs, I'd expect Miami to win just as they did last year. 

Indiana without LeVert and Warren is not better than Boston, but with those 2 it is a much more interesting discussion because that would make the Pacers so much deeper.  I definitely think Tatum is the best player in that series, but it isn't like Sabonis or Brogdon aren't both very good players.

Better and more talented are very different metrics, in my view.

I'm aware that you have always been of the opinion that the Celts are less talented than their peers

always.  come on now.  Boston hasn't had a top 5 player since KG got old.  That just quite simply matters when you are talking about winning things like championships. There is a reason there are like 3 teams in the entire history of the league that have won a title without a top 5 player.

I think the top 5 player criterium is too harsh. There are so many great players in the NBA right now.

I believe you can win a title with either James, Durant, Harden, Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Curry or Leonard as your best player. And I think you can also put Davis, Embiid, Doncic and Lillard in that group. Hell, look at what Butler did last year, throw him in as well. That's 12 players.

You can think it is too harsh all you want, but that is history.  If you don't have a top 5 player and win the title it is a fluke. 

[slamtheking]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

A better question may be how many games we would have won if Smart was healthy and Walker was not?

A couple of examples:

LA Lakers (1 point loss), Walker: 1-12
Phoenix (9 point loss), Walker: 4-20
New Orleans (5 point loss), Walker: 5-21

that's a bit of a false premise - you're making the assumption that Smart doesn't have a game where he shoots that badly but we've all seen him have plenty of those games.   I do think though that with Smart in the game instead of Kemba, the defense would have been much better and theoretically reducing the score of the other team in that manner thereby enabling the C's to win

[spikelovetheCelts]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

A better question may be how many games we would have won if Smart was healthy and Walker was not?

A couple of examples:

LA Lakers (1 point loss), Walker: 1-12
Phoenix (9 point loss), Walker: 4-20
New Orleans (5 point loss), Walker: 5-21

that's a bit of a false premise - you're making the assumption that Smart doesn't have a game where he shoots that badly but we've all seen him have plenty of those games.   I do think though that with Smart in the game instead of Kemba, the defense would have been much better and theoretically reducing the score of the other team in that manner thereby enabling the C's to win

Smart is the glue. We don't lose yesterday with him on our team. If we add Harrison Barnes or a player that can score of the bench. I think we can make the ECF again. Kemba I believe will keep getting on track. Time will Tell. Embrid always seems to get hurt. If Drummond maks it to the Nets. They have the East. It won't matter. I only hope Time Lord keeps getting better but his only 6-8.

[Chief]

Not that this current team is going to win a championship. 

I think they are close though.

[Kernewek]

Idk, call this an extremely pessimistic take...

But would it actually be better to miss the playoffs entirely?? I mean right now they are only 1 game ahead of the current 9 seed, right in the mix with a bunch of teams around .500. Maybe then, there’ll be more urgency going into the offseason, and a bit more pressure on Ainge and Stevens.

Because right now, this team just feels like it’s filled with personnel who think they are better than everyone else, and filled with guys who seem to think they have 100% safe jobs so they don’t have to take the extra steps. And yes, I put Ainge and Stevens in that mix. It’s not just Tatum, Brown and the players.

I’m not saying you have to fire Brad and/or Ainge right now, but surely they’ve got to at least have warmer seats… right?? This is inexcusable.

We all know what’ll happen come playoff time. Maybe they win a first round series if they match up against a favorable opponent, but then lose quickly in 4 or 5 the next round to any of MIL/BKN/PHI. Hell, I think even a team like Indiana or even Charlotte FFS could beat us in a playoff series

You HAVE to fire Brad. He is not the answer to this team. This team needs a new direction and a new system. He needs to understand that these guys are not Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Draymond Green of the Warriors. The offensive system has got to change.

If this team lost to guys like the Wizards, Hawks, and Pelicans....surely they'll get eaten alive by Indy or Charlotte in a 7-game series. C's lucked out with Simmons being hurt last year in the playoffs, followed-by a grueling 7-game series with the Raptors that went down to the wire.

Even if they are, the Warriors made an overnight improvement when they went from Mark Jackson to Steve Kerr at the head coaching position.

I am not sure there is a coach that is a comparative upgrade available, though.

[slamtheking]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

A better question may be how many games we would have won if Smart was healthy and Walker was not?

A couple of examples:

LA Lakers (1 point loss), Walker: 1-12
Phoenix (9 point loss), Walker: 4-20
New Orleans (5 point loss), Walker: 5-21

that's a bit of a false premise - you're making the assumption that Smart doesn't have a game where he shoots that badly but we've all seen him have plenty of those games.   I do think though that with Smart in the game instead of Kemba, the defense would have been much better and theoretically reducing the score of the other team in that manner thereby enabling the C's to win

Smart is the glue. We don't lose yesterday with him on our team. If we add Harrison Barnes or a player that can score of the bench. I think we can make the ECF again. Kemba I believe will keep getting on track. Time will Tell. Embrid always seems to get hurt. If Drummond maks it to the Nets. They have the East. It won't matter. I only hope Time Lord keeps getting better but his only 6-8.

if we add Smart to who we had yesterday, I agree that we'd have won.  If we substitute him for Kemba, I'll go as far as saying we'd have probably have won but I don't think it's a sure thing.  Kemba's shots would have to go to someone else.  Smart would have taken many of them but some would have also gone to Jaylen who was also having an awful shooting game