Do you have faith?

[PhoSita]

I have zero idea what's wrong with this team. Yes, they're terrible at assisting - but they were last year too (54.2 AST% this year vs. 55.7 AST% last year). Yes, the bench can't score, but they couldn't last year either: 29th in bench scoring per possession last year vs. 30th this year. Yes, we lost Education Reform Hayward, Wanamaker, and Kanter but we didn't have Hayward most of the Playoffs, Wanamaker has been terrible this season, and I can't imagine a team dying on both ends due to the loss of Enes Kanter.

Yes, the defense is worse and the offense are worse but I don't really know why. I'm too lazy to check, but I imagine our offensive shot location is about the same: a ton of pull-up jumpers and few free-throws. I imagine defensively the same is true as well: Celtics give up more threes than average but protect the paint. And of course, I think Brad's had only one or two teams ever be in the top ten in defensive rebounding, so I doubt that's the issue too.

I almost want to blame chemistry issues, but I feel like we'd have heard whispers by now like during the Kyrie year. But to answer your question, I have faith Tatum and Brown are stars and that Timelord is a future starter with a chance to be better than that. I also have faith Stevens is a good coach. That's pretty much it.

These are really good points.



I mean, I suppose it is as simple and as unhelpful as this:


1) We have ample evidence that the five man group of Kemba - Smart - Brown - Tatum - Theis is very effective on both ends when healthy.

2) That group has pretty much never been healthy this season, and there's no reason to think they will be fully healthy anytime soon.

[RJ87]

I always thought this team was middle of the pack, so none of this is surprising. There's just not much substance outside of the Jays/Kemba/Smart with Kemba was coming off a knee injury and Smart being better served as a sixth man. We need more shooting, we need more playmaking, we need more leadership. That was all true before the season started.

This team was built as a bridge year team, not a contender (not even a puncher's chance contender).

So you watched the playoffs last summer and thought it was all just fool's gold, then?

I've been consistent in my belief that you can't lose the playmaking we've lost to date in Hayward and Horford without replacing their skill level and just be okay. The playoffs are a weird anomaly, you're playing your best guys bigger minutes and relying less on the bench. Without the Jays playing 40ish minutes per game, that's more minutes to be filled by question marks like Teague and Semi. Occasionally, those guys will surprise you but more often they won't. Heck, a strong section of our bench can't even break the rotation when we struggle.

We entered the season placing a lot of weight on Tatum and Brown to carry this team in a way they haven't had to yet. Kemba being out sped up that timeline. I think the world of the Jays, but it the writing was on that wall that there'd be growing pains and this team lacks someone on the bench who could step into the vacuum.

That's fair.  I have never been that worried about losing Hayward because at the end of the day he just wasn't healthy and available for hardly any games that mattered during his time there.  I don't think he really made any significant positive contributions to the playoff run last summer. 

You're totally correct, though, that this team lacks playmaking, especially with Kemba hobbled and Smart injured.  Jayson and Jaylen are very good, but they're still a long ways off from being able to run an offense.  That's a huge problem right now, the way this team is constructed.


I guess the question is whether that is a profound flaw that can be fixed with the kinds of moves you might imagine Ainge doing with the TPE, or with a signing the team might make using a cap exception next summer, or via the draft.  My fear is that it's not, and only a major upheaval will lead to this team performing drastically better than what we've seen lately.  Sure, health would make a huge difference, but they'd still fundamentally lack playmaking and probably struggle in crunch time.  Yet it's also hard to see what major change Ainge could make unless it's firing the coach (which to me is a desperation move that almost never works) or trading one of the core guys.

Here's my thought process: you could always throw the ball to Hayward or Horford and trust them to make the right, fundamentally sound play. They weren't flashy and sometimes those decisions didn't show up in the box score, but those two guys were the prototypes for the offense Brad seems to want to run.

Yes, I know Hayward missed the playoffs last year for the most part but again, having the Jays play 40 minutes means less of the bench guys. And by and large, the playoffs are when the cream rises to the top. In the regular season, though, the Jays just aren't natural playmakers yet. They can be at some point, I really believe that. But we're in the midst of their learning curve right now so it's going to be uneven.

I don't know if a trade will help. But if you could bring in a player who can take some of the scoring burden off of them and be a consistent release valve, it'd go a long way. Right now they're the guys that have to score and facilitate and play high level defense and when they falter, there's no one there to pick them up. That's tough.

[PhoSita]

team is 5th or 6th in the East talent wise. Measure your expectations.

Eh ... really?

I guess Milwaukee has more talent just because of Giannis.

Brooklyn definitely has more talent.

Philly ... eh?  Embiid is better than our best guys. Simmons is much worse.  Tobias is better RIGHT NOW than Kemba, but is that a forever thing?  The rest of that roster is not very talented.  The Sixers have two things going for them -- their main guys have been healthy, and their supporting cast fits really well around their stars.  Neither of those things have been true for the Celtics this year, but neither of those factors is about talent.


Miami?  No, I don't think Miami is more talented.  They're deeper and more balanced, but they've been struggling even harder than the Celts so far this season.  As long as Jimmy Butler can't shoot and Tyler Herro is closer to a league average shooter than a very good one, the Heat aren't so scary.

Indiana?  I love Sabonis as much as anyone, but no.



All of that said, at this point for a variety of reasons I am kind of expecting this season to end with a first round playoff loss against the Sixers, Bucks, or Nets because the Celts end up with the 5th or 6th seed.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I have zero idea what's wrong with this team. Yes, they're terrible at assisting - but they were last year too (54.2 AST% this year vs. 55.7 AST% last year). Yes, the bench can't score, but they couldn't last year either: 29th in bench scoring per possession last year vs. 30th this year. Yes, we lost Education Reform Hayward, Wanamaker, and Kanter but we didn't have Hayward most of the Playoffs, Wanamaker has been terrible this season, and I can't imagine a team dying on both ends due to the loss of Enes Kanter.

Yes, the defense is worse and the offense are worse but I don't really know why. I'm too lazy to check, but I imagine our offensive shot location is about the same: a ton of pull-up jumpers and few free-throws. I imagine defensively the same is true as well: Celtics give up more threes than average but protect the paint. And of course, I think Brad's had only one or two teams ever be in the top ten in defensive rebounding, so I doubt that's the issue too.

I almost want to blame chemistry issues, but I feel like we'd have heard whispers by now like during the Kyrie year. But to answer your question, I have faith Tatum and Brown are stars and that Timelord is a future starter with a chance to be better than that. I also have faith Stevens is a good coach. That's pretty much it.

These are really good points.



I mean, I suppose it is as simple and as unhelpful as this:


1) We have ample evidence that the five man group of Kemba - Smart - Brown - Tatum - Theis is very effective on both ends when healthy.

2) That group has pretty much never been healthy this season, and there's no reason to think they will be fully healthy anytime soon.

This is something I keep coming back to. Some people say that an oft-injured past doesn't mean an oft-injured future, but the Celtics have consistently struggled with significant injuries since KG's knee. That includes the current bunch. Kemba was out, then he comes back and Smart goes out, then we learn that Jaylen has knee tendonitis. Plus Rob's hip has to be closely monitored, and Romeo's two seasons thus far have been injury-riddled. I mean, good grief. So I have ZERO faith that the Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis/Smart grouping will ever be able to maintain good health for a sustained amount of time.

People keep saying, "Just wait til everyone's healthy!" But that's just it—they'll never have everyone healthy!

[PhoSita]

I have zero idea what's wrong with this team. Yes, they're terrible at assisting - but they were last year too (54.2 AST% this year vs. 55.7 AST% last year). Yes, the bench can't score, but they couldn't last year either: 29th in bench scoring per possession last year vs. 30th this year. Yes, we lost Education Reform Hayward, Wanamaker, and Kanter but we didn't have Hayward most of the Playoffs, Wanamaker has been terrible this season, and I can't imagine a team dying on both ends due to the loss of Enes Kanter.

Yes, the defense is worse and the offense are worse but I don't really know why. I'm too lazy to check, but I imagine our offensive shot location is about the same: a ton of pull-up jumpers and few free-throws. I imagine defensively the same is true as well: Celtics give up more threes than average but protect the paint. And of course, I think Brad's had only one or two teams ever be in the top ten in defensive rebounding, so I doubt that's the issue too.

I almost want to blame chemistry issues, but I feel like we'd have heard whispers by now like during the Kyrie year. But to answer your question, I have faith Tatum and Brown are stars and that Timelord is a future starter with a chance to be better than that. I also have faith Stevens is a good coach. That's pretty much it.

These are really good points.



I mean, I suppose it is as simple and as unhelpful as this:


1) We have ample evidence that the five man group of Kemba - Smart - Brown - Tatum - Theis is very effective on both ends when healthy.

2) That group has pretty much never been healthy this season, and there's no reason to think they will be fully healthy anytime soon.

This is something I keep coming back to. Some people say that an oft-injured past doesn't mean an oft-injured future, but the Celtics have consistently struggled with significant injuries since KG's knee. That includes the current bunch. Kemba was out, then he comes back and Smart goes out, then we learn that Jaylen has knee tendonitis. Plus Rob's hip has to be closely monitored, and Romeo's two seasons thus far have been injury-riddled. I mean, good grief. So I have ZERO faith that the Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis/Smart grouping will ever be able to maintain good health for a sustained amount of time.

Man, when you put it like that it does seem like a roster wide issue.  Is this a training staff problem?  Hasn't the training staff changed over the last decade plus?  Could it be that Ainge gambles too much on guys with injury issues in order to try to win on talent? 


It does seem notable to me that the last two seasons Ainge has used his draft picks on guys who missed significant time in college due to injuries.  Both guys came into their time with the team at a major disadvantage because of that lack of seasoning / injury recovery.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I have zero idea what's wrong with this team. Yes, they're terrible at assisting - but they were last year too (54.2 AST% this year vs. 55.7 AST% last year). Yes, the bench can't score, but they couldn't last year either: 29th in bench scoring per possession last year vs. 30th this year. Yes, we lost Education Reform Hayward, Wanamaker, and Kanter but we didn't have Hayward most of the Playoffs, Wanamaker has been terrible this season, and I can't imagine a team dying on both ends due to the loss of Enes Kanter.

Yes, the defense is worse and the offense are worse but I don't really know why. I'm too lazy to check, but I imagine our offensive shot location is about the same: a ton of pull-up jumpers and few free-throws. I imagine defensively the same is true as well: Celtics give up more threes than average but protect the paint. And of course, I think Brad's had only one or two teams ever be in the top ten in defensive rebounding, so I doubt that's the issue too.

I almost want to blame chemistry issues, but I feel like we'd have heard whispers by now like during the Kyrie year. But to answer your question, I have faith Tatum and Brown are stars and that Timelord is a future starter with a chance to be better than that. I also have faith Stevens is a good coach. That's pretty much it.

These are really good points.



I mean, I suppose it is as simple and as unhelpful as this:


1) We have ample evidence that the five man group of Kemba - Smart - Brown - Tatum - Theis is very effective on both ends when healthy.

2) That group has pretty much never been healthy this season, and there's no reason to think they will be fully healthy anytime soon.

This is something I keep coming back to. Some people say that an oft-injured past doesn't mean an oft-injured future, but the Celtics have consistently struggled with significant injuries since KG's knee. That includes the current bunch. Kemba was out, then he comes back and Smart goes out, then we learn that Jaylen has knee tendonitis. Plus Rob's hip has to be closely monitored, and Romeo's two seasons thus far have been injury-riddled. I mean, good grief. So I have ZERO faith that the Kemba/Brown/Tatum/Theis/Smart grouping will ever be able to maintain good health for a sustained amount of time.

Man, when you put it like that it does seem like a roster wide issue.  Is this a training staff problem?  Hasn't the training staff changed over the last decade plus?  Could it be that Ainge gambles too much on guys with injury issues in order to try to win on talent?

It does seem notable to me that the last two seasons Ainge has used his draft picks on guys who missed significant time in college due to injuries.  Both guys came into their time with the team at a major disadvantage because of that lack of seasoning / injury recovery.

I wish I knew the answer(s). I mean, I'm not sure, for example, if there's even been a 2-month period, at any point in the last 4 seasons (including this one), when all of Boston's key players were healthy. That's just absurd.

And yes, when you repeatedly draft guys with significant injury history, that throws off a lot of stuff—the development of those players is delayed, their integration with the rest of the roster is delayed, and timelines get pushed back. And in Boston's case, is Romeo ever going to be able to play even a quarter of a season without getting injured?

[PhoSita]

Here's my thought process: you could always throw the ball to Hayward or Horford and trust them to make the right, fundamentally sound play. They weren't flashy and sometimes those decisions didn't show up in the box score, but those two guys were the prototypes for the offense Brad seems to want to run.

I've felt for a while now that Al Horford is the exact piece this team has been missing, especially this year.  Horford was exactly what you describe -- a reliable, consistent fulcrum who steadied the team in tough moments and was in many respects an extension of the coach on the floor.  You could build your offense and defense around Al Horford in a way you can't build your offense or defense around either Tatum or Brown.

[hpantazo]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

[PhoSita]

I wish I knew the answer(s). I mean, I'm not sure, for example, if there's even been a 2-month period, at any point in the last 4 seasons (including this one), when all of Boston's key players were healthy. That's just absurd.

And yes, when you repeatedly draft guys with significant injury history, that throws off a lot of stuff—the development of those players is delayed, their integration with the rest of the roster is delayed, and timelines get pushed back. And in Boston's case, is Romeo ever going to be able to play even a quarter of a season without getting injured?

I would love it if somebody like Kirk Goldsberry would do a multiple season analysis of how all of the teams compare in terms of games lost due to injury.

Every team deals with injuries.  It does feel like the Celts deal with more than most.  Is that true, or is it just a feeling?

[PhoSita]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

I feel like a lot of the losses would be closer, at which point those games would have been a coin flip or close to it.

But then, this team seems to find ways to lose coin flip games more often than not, which suggests they're not really a coin flip.

[NKY fan]

Let's put it this way. Out of all the games we've lost recently, how many of them do you think we win if Smart was healthy?

1 at the most

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I wish I knew the answer(s). I mean, I'm not sure, for example, if there's even been a 2-month period, at any point in the last 4 seasons (including this one), when all of Boston's key players were healthy. That's just absurd.

And yes, when you repeatedly draft guys with significant injury history, that throws off a lot of stuff—the development of those players is delayed, their integration with the rest of the roster is delayed, and timelines get pushed back. And in Boston's case, is Romeo ever going to be able to play even a quarter of a season without getting injured?

I would love it if somebody like Kirk Goldsberry would do a multiple season analysis of how all of the teams compare in terms of games lost due to injury.

Every team deals with injuries.  It does feel like the Celts deal with more than most.  Is that true, or is it just a feeling?

I could be wrong, but I think it's true. Hayward alone missed a ton of games; then add Kemba, Romeo, Smart, Rob, Kyrie, etc. I really think they have to be among the league leaders over the past several years.

[RJ87]

I wish I knew the answer(s). I mean, I'm not sure, for example, if there's even been a 2-month period, at any point in the last 4 seasons (including this one), when all of Boston's key players were healthy. That's just absurd.

And yes, when you repeatedly draft guys with significant injury history, that throws off a lot of stuff—the development of those players is delayed, their integration with the rest of the roster is delayed, and timelines get pushed back. And in Boston's case, is Romeo ever going to be able to play even a quarter of a season without getting injured?

I would love it if somebody like Kirk Goldsberry would do a multiple season analysis of how all of the teams compare in terms of games lost due to injury.

Every team deals with injuries.  It does feel like the Celts deal with more than most.  Is that true, or is it just a feeling?

I could be wrong, but I think it's true. Hayward alone missed a ton of games; then add Kemba, Romeo, Smart, Rob, Kyrie, etc. I really think they have to be among the league leaders over the past several years.

In evaluating our training staff, you have to ask if players are suffering from fluke injuries or if issues are the result of longterm issues that weren't managed properly.

For the most part, they were flukes. The IT thing was something that could've and should've been managed better, but we cleaned house after that.

Now... The jury's still out. How do we manage Timelord's hip soreness? Or Jaylen's knee tendinitis? These are things that athletes can and do play through with a proper treatment plans in place.

[MikeB12]

I had questions about this team from the beginning.  I was hopeful Walker would be a great addition however this has not turned out to be the case.  17 pts per game just isn't enough.

Smart getting injured has really hurt, but even so losing recently to terrible teams with losing records is very disappointing.

Boston would be in 8th-10th place in the West (haven't checked lately) - I thought the Celtics could end up with the 4th best record in the East, but I didn't think the Celtics would have a .500 record at this point. 

Losing games recently to the bottom feeders of the East is going to hurt the Celtics final seeding in the East.  Instead of 15-15, the Celtics should be 18-12, even with Smart out.

It looks like this is going to be a long season for Celtics fans.  The question is can DA bring in enough talent to make a significant improvement for next season.

[Ed Monix]

Celtics lose for just the seventh time in the last 25 years, including playoffs, when holding a 24-point lead (261-7).

I believe, at least, something like this wouldn’t have happened if Smart is on the court.