Bill Simmons says 2020 Lakers would beat 2008 Celtics

[Roy H.]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

[Moranis]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

[Roy H.]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

Well, you cited the stat, not me. You said Davis had significant leads in WS and Off/Def Eff.  That’s just not true.  Having a small edge in WS/48 when your usage is 50% higher really isn’t impressive.

[Moranis]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

Well, you cited the stat, not me. You said Davis had significant leads in WS and Off/Def Eff.  That’s just not true.  Having a small edge in WS/48 when your usage is 50% higher really isn’t impressive.

You posted the comparison of them.  I said Davis was better pretty much across the board, which he is (and that was a better year for Pau than he had in 08).  And despite playing in 19 less games, Davis actually has a higher DWS at 4.4 vs. 4.2 to Gasol.  And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.  And usage has almost nothing to do with WS as they account for everything you do on the court. 

I'm not the one that is claiming Pau Gasol is in the same league as Anthony Davis as a player.  That would have been you, which is just crazy nonsense. 

[johnnygreen]

I’m not sure we can look at the stats of KG, Pierce, and Allen from 2008 as much of an indicator. Their primary goal that season was to win the title. They each sacrificed individual numbers for the betterment of the team. KG’s minutes per game during the regular season went from 39.4 in ’06-07 down to 32.8 in ’07-08. Pierce 37.0 down to 35.9. Allen 40.3 down to 35.9.

The thought of KG starting his decline with the Celtics is ridiculous. The guy was playing almost 7 minutes per game less than the season before. From what I recall, Doc was monitoring his minutes during the regular season, with the idea of making a long playoff run.

Fast forward to 2020, and LeBron. Would the Lakers and LeBron won the title if it wasn’t for the long layoff due to COVID? I’m not sure. As I recall, LeBron seemed gassed by the time he was facing Golden State in the Finals in 2017 and 2018. There is no way an even older LeBron doesn’t succumb to the same fate against Miami. Let’s also not forget the timing of those Miami injuries, which greatly affected the series.

BTW, has anyone mentioned the coaching mismatch in favor of the Celtics? Tom Thibodeau was also an assistant coach on that Celtics team, who contributed to making them a defensive monster that year.

As I mentioned before, I think the Atlanta and Cleveland series each going 7 games, seems to hurt in hind sight of just how good that Celtics team was. Once they reached the Eastern Conference Finals, I feel like they regained their regular season swagger back again, and they would no longer be denied no matter who they faced.

[Kernewek]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

Well, you cited the stat, not me. You said Davis had significant leads in WS and Off/Def Eff.  That’s just not true.  Having a small edge in WS/48 when your usage is 50% higher really isn’t impressive.

You posted the comparison of them.  I said Davis was better pretty much across the board, which he is (and that was a better year for Pau than he had in 08).  And despite playing in 19 less games, Davis actually has a higher DWS at 4.4 vs. 4.2 to Gasol.  And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.  And usage has almost nothing to do with WS as they account for everything you do on the court. 

I'm not the one that is claiming Pau Gasol is in the same league as Anthony Davis as a player.  That would have been you, which is just crazy nonsense.

Not so sure they're terribly far off, not only because Gasol was/is quite underrated but also because Davis has been tasked to do a lot more as his team's focal point on him throughout his career, which will reflect in the box score and advanced stats.

[Moranis]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

Well, you cited the stat, not me. You said Davis had significant leads in WS and Off/Def Eff.  That’s just not true.  Having a small edge in WS/48 when your usage is 50% higher really isn’t impressive.

You posted the comparison of them.  I said Davis was better pretty much across the board, which he is (and that was a better year for Pau than he had in 08).  And despite playing in 19 less games, Davis actually has a higher DWS at 4.4 vs. 4.2 to Gasol.  And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.  And usage has almost nothing to do with WS as they account for everything you do on the court. 

I'm not the one that is claiming Pau Gasol is in the same league as Anthony Davis as a player.  That would have been you, which is just crazy nonsense.

Not so sure they're terribly far off, not only because Gasol was/is quite underrated but also because Davis has been tasked to do a lot more as his team's focal point on him throughout his career, which will reflect in the box score and advanced stats.

Gasol was the #1 option in Memphis and never came close to producing like Davis.  I mean Gasol on a 49 win team led his teams in ppg, rpg, was like 0.1 off of apg, and bpg.  Of course that was like 20/9/4.5/2.2.  Very good numbers, maybe even great (the bpg certainly was elite), but not top 5 player in the league great.  And that was 25 year old, 5th year prime Gasol before he got hurt the next season and lost some of the athleticism.  Though he was stronger and more savvy in LA, and really played center a lot more boosting his rebounding a great deal (though still no where near AD), he lost some of the speed and hop.

Gasol was a great HOF level player, but he was never a MVP candidate.  He never even made 1st Team All NBA (and hit 2nd team just twice).  He was never considered a top 5 talent or a top 5 player.  He just isn't in the same class of player that AD is.  It isn't that close either. 

[GreenFaith1819]

Regarding Kevin Garnett and Pau Gasol....

I'm seeing comparisons on here of the two and I think some of us may be forgetting KG's "Emotional Quotient" for our team while he suited up in Green....



Not many players - in the history of the game - had that FIRE that KG has....and never will, unfortunately.

Here he is recuperating after his TERRIBLE injury in Utah in 2008 - on the SIDELINES in his crisp, clean suit - getting up in the grill of Hot-shooting Ben Gordon and whispering Sweet Nothings to him to try and get him off his game, LOL.............

And just LOOK at the effect it's having on our Scalabrine.....

Could Pau do that? Bring that SAME EMOTION that can oftentimes move the needle for a team 'MENTALLY"? Make them perform better.....help them get FOCUSED and make SCRAPPY PLAYS?

I love Pau Gasol and he was a GREAT PF / BIG back in the day but listen here -

Swap out KG for Pau with Los Angeles...give Kobe Bean Bryant KG in summer of 2007 and give us Pau.

Kobe Bryant BEATS BOS in 2007-08, with KG......quote me on this.

Pau, Paul Pierce and Ray come up short...I believe this, too.

Pau - while a GREAT player - does NOT make Kendrick Perkins a better player....a better defender.



Kevin Garnett's WILL POWER makes teams BETTER....this is oftentimes not talked about enough. This is why when we do our Historical Drafts on here he is an EARLY pick because Kevin Garnett is like Peanut Butter....

You can place Peanut Butter on MANY THINGS and make it better....apples...celery...bread...jelly.....bananas.......

Kevin Garnett makes TEAMS better. He made BOS better....made MINNY better.....made BKN better........

Heck, let's do some Historical Draft Front Lines RIGHT NOW -

Kareem - KG......Bill Russell - KG.....Moses Malone - KG.........Wilt Chamberlin - KG........Hakeem - KG.......Bill Walton(Healthy) - KG.........Shaquille O'Neal - KG.......Tim Duncan - KG.......David Robinson - KG.......

I'd even place KG at PF next to KEVIN MCHALE in the 80s........

AGAIN - I love Pau Gasol but he just doesn't have that SAME EFFECT on a team like KG does....DID.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wGVZpKQUsU

Look, laugh if you want to but THIS IS KG............................this stuff RUBS OFF ON TEAMS...MAKES them BETTER................

I am GRATEFUL for KG coming to BOSTON and Danny Ainge in keeping his eyes on him for those years......Kevin Garnett was MADE for BOS and I don't believe ANYONE ELSE could've taken his place with the SAME RESULTS from 2008-2012.

And YES - Our Boston Celtics 2007-08 STILL BEATS 2020 LAL.....Kevin Garnett wears down AD mentally and locks him up defensively and provides just enough of a barrier defensively to hamper LeBron's drives to the basket.

2007-08 BOS 4 games to 2020 LAL 2 games at best.

[GreenFaith1819]

Also - KG's fibbing LOOL............no way he is "just" 6'11"........dude every bit of 7'0" or taller................or Perk is "just" 6'9".

KG lied all these years but I forgive him.

[Kernewek]

Hot take:  Pau Gasol on the Lakers and Anthony Davis were closer than KG vs. Davis

That’s not even a knock on Davis.  Gasol was that good. 

https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Anthony+Davis&player_id1_select=Anthony+Davis&player_id1=davisan02&idx=bbr__players&p1yrfrom=2020&player_id2_hint=Pau+Gasol&player_id2_select=Pau+Gasol&player_id2=gasolpa01&idx=bbr__players&p2yrfrom=2009

(Note, the above uses Gasol’s stats from 2009, since basketball-reference sold out and ruined all of their tools.  I can’t link to just Gasol’s Lakers numbers in 2008).

Pau was at least even in rebounding and passing, he had higher efficiency and fewer turnovers.  His ORtg / DRtg compare favorably.  There’s a big gap in scoring, but there’s also a gigantic difference in usage (Davis’ is almost 50% higher).

Gasol was better in 09 than he was in 08, but even then all of the advanced metrics favor Davis and some of them favor Davis pretty significantly, you know things like BPM, VORP, WS, efficiencies (especially the defensive ones), etc.  Gasol was a fine player (and I think he should have been the Finals MVP in 10), but he was never anywhere close to a top 5 player in the league, something Davis actually is.

Both OWS and DWS favor Gasol, despite having the gigantic gap in usage.  Pau’s ORtg was better by 5 points, and his DRtg was 2 points letter, meaning his net rating was better.

Pau wasn’t better, but it was closer between him and Davis than it was between KG and Davis.  The real separation factor between Pau and Brow was usage.

win shares are correlated to games played and actual team wins.  Comparing players with 19 games difference in games doesn't tell that picture well at all. something like WS/48 tells a different story and is far more accurate to actual value.

Well, you cited the stat, not me. You said Davis had significant leads in WS and Off/Def Eff.  That’s just not true.  Having a small edge in WS/48 when your usage is 50% higher really isn’t impressive.

You posted the comparison of them.  I said Davis was better pretty much across the board, which he is (and that was a better year for Pau than he had in 08).  And despite playing in 19 less games, Davis actually has a higher DWS at 4.4 vs. 4.2 to Gasol.  And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.  And usage has almost nothing to do with WS as they account for everything you do on the court. 

I'm not the one that is claiming Pau Gasol is in the same league as Anthony Davis as a player.  That would have been you, which is just crazy nonsense.

Not so sure they're terribly far off, not only because Gasol was/is quite underrated but also because Davis has been tasked to do a lot more as his team's focal point on him throughout his career, which will reflect in the box score and advanced stats.

Gasol was the #1 option in Memphis and never came close to producing like Davis.  I mean Gasol on a 49 win team led his teams in ppg, rpg, was like 0.1 off of apg, and bpg.  Of course that was like 20/9/4.5/2.2.  Very good numbers, maybe even great (the bpg certainly was elite), but not top 5 player in the league great.  And that was 25 year old, 5th year prime Gasol before he got hurt the next season and lost some of the athleticism.  Though he was stronger and more savvy in LA, and really played center a lot more boosting his rebounding a great deal (though still no where near AD), he lost some of the speed and hop.

Gasol was a great HOF level player, but he was never a MVP candidate.  He never even made 1st Team All NBA (and hit 2nd team just twice).  He was never considered a top 5 talent or a top 5 player.  He just isn't in the same class of player that AD is.  It isn't that close either.

That he was never considered a top 5 talent or a top 5 player would seem to me to suggest he was, indeed, underrated.

However, what the discussion seems to be about is whether Gasol is close to Davis, and we obviously have differing opinions on that closeness. I would say they are comparable, but I have to rush so apologies for not breaking out the metrics.

[Roy H.]

And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.

Interesting.

Lebron 2008: .242 WS/48

Lebron 2020: .204 WS/48

That’s a .38 differential.  That conclusively proves that 2008 LeBron is massively better than 2020 LeBron.  And we all saw what the Celts defense did to 2008 Lebron.

[Roy H.]

Also - KG's fibbing LOOL............no way he is "just" 6'11"........dude every bit of 7'0" or taller................or Perk is "just" 6'9".

KG lied all these years but I forgive him.

Yeah, I think the true measurement was 7’1”

[Donoghus]

Also - KG's fibbing LOOL............no way he is "just" 6'11"........dude every bit of 7'0" or taller................or Perk is "just" 6'9".

KG lied all these years but I forgive him.

Yeah, I think the true measurement was 7’1”

Oh, he was definitely 7 feet (at least).

[Moranis]

And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.

Interesting.

Lebron 2008: .242 WS/48

Lebron 2020: .204 WS/48

That’s a .38 differential.  That conclusively proves that 2008 LeBron is massively better than 2020 LeBron.  And we all saw what the Celts defense did to 2008 Lebron.

I'm not sure why I'm really debating this since you are pulling off your classic deflect and pull things out of context, but why not look at the playoff WS/48 you know since Lebron coasts all season now (and didn't nearly as much back then)?  Anything with Lebron's regular seasons the last 6 years or so just doesn't paint an accurate picture of Lebron because everyone knows he coasts for such large portions of the season and then he locks it in and takes it to another level in the playoffs. 

[Roy H.]

And a .027 WS/48 difference is quite large.

Interesting.

Lebron 2008: .242 WS/48

Lebron 2020: .204 WS/48

That’s a .38 differential.  That conclusively proves that 2008 LeBron is massively better than 2020 LeBron.  And we all saw what the Celts defense did to 2008 Lebron.

I'm not sure why I'm really debating this since you are pulling off your classic deflect and pull things out of context, but why not look at the playoff WS/48 you know since Lebron coasts all season now (and didn't nearly as much back then)?  Anything with Lebron's regular seasons the last 6 years or so just doesn't paint an accurate picture of Lebron because everyone knows he coasts for such large portions of the season and then he locks it in and takes it to another level in the playoffs.

I’m guessing that 2008 Lebron’s win shares were negatively affected by having to play a historically great defense in the second round, no?  I’m sure his WS would look a lot better if he played the easy schedule Lebron saw in the playoffs.