Author Topic: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season  (Read 4239 times)

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Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #60 on: October 09, 2020, 05:47:51 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I do think that his best role was the one he played in 2018-19, so if he can somehow return to that level of play I don't really see why we should ever move him. All-NBA 1st team defence, locker-room leader and game changer. You don't trade guys like that for pennies on the dime.


I'm not sure there was much different about Smart in the 18-19 season vs the 19-20 season.

The main difference I think is that he no longer had Horford to run pick and roll with him.  He and Horford developed a pretty sweet two man game in certain lineups in the 18 and 19 seasons.
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Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #61 on: October 09, 2020, 06:07:22 PM »

Online gouki88

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I do think that his best role was the one he played in 2018-19, so if he can somehow return to that level of play I don't really see why we should ever move him. All-NBA 1st team defence, locker-room leader and game changer. You don't trade guys like that for pennies on the dime.


I'm not sure there was much different about Smart in the 18-19 season vs the 19-20 season.

The main difference I think is that he no longer had Horford to run pick and roll with him.  He and Horford developed a pretty sweet two man game in certain lineups in the 18 and 19 seasons.
I think a +4.3FGA and +2.3 3PA increase alongside a -4.7FG% and a -1.7 3P% decrease, as well a +4.5MPG increase are all huge differences for a guy of his skill. His USG% was considerably higher, his defence was slightly worse and the better efficiency stats (TS and EFG) were considerably down.

I think those are significant differences if I'm honest. His role on offence was too big for someone with his limitations and he was playing too many minutes. Might have just been a result of injuries to Hayward, Kemba and Brown though

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #62 on: October 09, 2020, 06:28:33 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I do think that his best role was the one he played in 2018-19, so if he can somehow return to that level of play I don't really see why we should ever move him. All-NBA 1st team defence, locker-room leader and game changer. You don't trade guys like that for pennies on the dime.


I'm not sure there was much different about Smart in the 18-19 season vs the 19-20 season.

The main difference I think is that he no longer had Horford to run pick and roll with him.  He and Horford developed a pretty sweet two man game in certain lineups in the 18 and 19 seasons.
I think a +4.3FGA and +2.3 3PA increase alongside a -4.7FG% and a -1.7 3P% decrease, as well a +4.5MPG increase are all huge differences for a guy of his skill. His USG% was considerably higher, his defence was slightly worse and the better efficiency stats (TS and EFG) were considerably down.

I think those are significant differences if I'm honest. His role on offence was too big for someone with his limitations and he was playing too many minutes. Might have just been a result of injuries to Hayward, Kemba and Brown though


Yeah.  I won't argue with the numbers you cite, but my perception of Smart this year is that he was pretty much just doing Smart stuff out there.  I think you're right that he was probably too often the main creator on the floor due to injuries / lack of bench depth. That probably accounts for a large part of the increase in shots that he took.

Ideally Smart should always have someone else on the floor with him who can take on the scoring load.  If you put him out there with a big man he can work with to run pick and roll / throw alley oops etc, so much the better.
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Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #63 on: October 09, 2020, 09:33:54 PM »

Offline GreenlyGreeny

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 09:49:06 PM by GreenlyGreeny »

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #64 on: October 09, 2020, 09:49:08 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Sign Boogie Cousins.

I mean, why not?
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Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #65 on: October 09, 2020, 10:53:57 PM »

Offline Somebody

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I do think that his best role was the one he played in 2018-19, so if he can somehow return to that level of play I don't really see why we should ever move him. All-NBA 1st team defence, locker-room leader and game changer. You don't trade guys like that for pennies on the dime.


I'm not sure there was much different about Smart in the 18-19 season vs the 19-20 season.

The main difference I think is that he no longer had Horford to run pick and roll with him.  He and Horford developed a pretty sweet two man game in certain lineups in the 18 and 19 seasons.
I think a +4.3FGA and +2.3 3PA increase alongside a -4.7FG% and a -1.7 3P% decrease, as well a +4.5MPG increase are all huge differences for a guy of his skill. His USG% was considerably higher, his defence was slightly worse and the better efficiency stats (TS and EFG) were considerably down.

I think those are significant differences if I'm honest. His role on offence was too big for someone with his limitations and he was playing too many minutes. Might have just been a result of injuries to Hayward, Kemba and Brown though
Yeah.  I won't argue with the numbers you cite, but my perception of Smart this year is that he was pretty much just doing Smart stuff out there.  I think you're right that he was probably too often the main creator on the floor due to injuries / lack of bench depth. That probably accounts for a large part of the increase in shots that he took.

Ideally Smart should always have someone else on the floor with him who can take on the scoring load.  If you put him out there with a big man he can work with to run pick and roll / throw alley oops etc, so much the better.
I think Smart actually improved this year, his passing has hit another level (I actually think that he's one of our best passers rn) while his defence has held steady - it only regressed very slightly because he had to play more and shoulder a heavier offensive load. Smart carried an offensive load that he shouldn't really be carrying in an ideal situation this season, but it doesn't mean that he regressed.
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 11:02:20 PM by Somebody »

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #66 on: October 09, 2020, 10:56:24 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

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Sign Boogie Cousins.

I mean, why not?
Because he’s washed up and coming off crippling injuries.

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #67 on: October 09, 2020, 11:47:33 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
I'd tell Denver and Utah to dream on if they wanted to trade Mitchell or Murray for Brown tbh. It's relatively easy to find All-Starry floor raisers and not so easy to find "complementary All-Stars" who're ceiling raisers.

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #68 on: October 09, 2020, 11:55:35 PM »

Online gouki88

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Sign Boogie Cousins.

I mean, why not?
Because he’s washed up and coming off crippling injuries.
For a vet-min it's pretty high reward low risk. If he's even half as good as he was at GS then he's basically as good as Kanter (better scorer and passer, worse rebounder) and for next to nothing

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #69 on: October 09, 2020, 11:58:09 PM »

Offline Somebody

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
And there is a chance that a lottery pick in this draft will turn into an MVP candidate :laugh:

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #70 on: October 10, 2020, 12:26:46 AM »

Online gouki88

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
And there is a chance that a lottery pick in this draft will turn into an MVP candidate :laugh:
I don't think that's near as likely as Tatum making that leap into MVP calibre to be honest. From February onward he averaged 27PPG on really good shooting percentages, and had started to improve his playmaking. In the playoffs he made huge leaps as a rebounder and passer, but his efficiency took a dip. That being said, Durant's first two playoff series' were much more inefficient than Tatum's most recent.

I think when you look at 09-11 KD and the Tatum we saw over the second half of the season and in the playoffs it's a fairly reasonable comparison.
The main thing KD has in his favour is his willingness and ability to draw fouls. Tatum made strides in that regard, particularly in the playoffs, but Durant is next-level when it comes to drawing fouls.
However, Tatum is a much better volume 3PT shooter and a better defender. I think Tatum's passing shown in the playoffs is better than any passing Durant displayed until around 2012-13 as well.
Tatum holds a slight edge in terms of EFG, but because of Durant's aforementioned insane FT drawing ability his TS% is way higher than JT's.

I think the main difference is MPG really. Brad doesn't let guys play much more than 34MPG in the regular season, whereas Durant played 39MPG from his sophomore season until his injury. The offensive advanced metrics for the most part are in KD's favour, as makes sense because he was an MVP level offensive force by then. But my point is more I don't think Tatum is actually that far off. Not that he's on KD's level, or that he will be as a scorer, but I'm not as harsh on JT as you. I think he could legitimately average 26/9/5 next season, alongside his typical efficiency and good defence.

All the stats I used to compare them are in the below link:

https://stathead.com/tiny/NbQly

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #71 on: October 10, 2020, 12:59:16 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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Tatum is already at a point where he'd be in the MVP conversation if the Celts won 55-60 games and got the 1 seed
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Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #72 on: October 10, 2020, 02:09:14 AM »

Offline Somebody

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
And there is a chance that a lottery pick in this draft will turn into an MVP candidate :laugh:
I don't think that's near as likely as Tatum making that leap into MVP calibre to be honest. From February onward he averaged 27PPG on really good shooting percentages, and had started to improve his playmaking. In the playoffs he made huge leaps as a rebounder and passer, but his efficiency took a dip. That being said, Durant's first two playoff series' were much more inefficient than Tatum's most recent.

I think when you look at 09-11 KD and the Tatum we saw over the second half of the season and in the playoffs it's a fairly reasonable comparison.
The main thing KD has in his favour is his willingness and ability to draw fouls. Tatum made strides in that regard, particularly in the playoffs, but Durant is next-level when it comes to drawing fouls.
However, Tatum is a much better volume 3PT shooter and a better defender. I think Tatum's passing shown in the playoffs is better than any passing Durant displayed until around 2012-13 as well.
Tatum holds a slight edge in terms of EFG, but because of Durant's aforementioned insane FT drawing ability his TS% is way higher than JT's.

I think the main difference is MPG really. Brad doesn't let guys play much more than 34MPG in the regular season, whereas Durant played 39MPG from his sophomore season until his injury. The offensive advanced metrics for the most part are in KD's favour, as makes sense because he was an MVP level offensive force by then. But my point is more I don't think Tatum is actually that far off. Not that he's on KD's level, or that he will be as a scorer, but I'm not as harsh on JT as you. I think he could legitimately average 26/9/5 next season, alongside his typical efficiency and good defence.

All the stats I used to compare them are in the below link:

https://stathead.com/tiny/NbQly
Oh I was exaggerating a bit, but to me saying that Tatum is going to be the next Durant is definitely a real stretch, he's quite far away offensively.

I had a post that adjusted for pace and relative league strength for both players and Tatum looks considerably worse in scoring volume and relative efficiency before you factor in that what Durant did was more impressive because he assumed primacy in an OKC offence where there wasn't much to work with from 09-11 while Tatum has really good pieces around him in Kemba, Hayward, Jaylen and Smart. Add in that +/- stats don't quite view Tatum as that next level offensive force (he makes up quite some ground defensively in this family of metrics but I'm talking about offence here) while they were in love with Durant as soon as he exploded back then and I think it's safe to say that while Tatum's box numbers are gaudy in a great situation, he's quite far off from being on Durant's level.

Btw I think that slash line is certainly realistic for Tatum, but basic slash lines are just so misleading and inaccurate when it comes to rating the quality of a player that I don't think it's fair to equate Tatum's 26/9/5 as "hey it's close to Durant's 30/8/3!".
« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 02:19:34 AM by Somebody »

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #73 on: October 10, 2020, 02:09:54 AM »

Offline Somebody

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Tatum is already at a point where he'd be in the MVP conversation if the Celts won 55-60 games and got the 1 seed
And that would be narrative-driven instead of being a true reflection of his ability.

Re: Map Out Your Ideal, Quasi-Realistic Off-season
« Reply #74 on: October 10, 2020, 02:41:45 AM »

Offline GreenlyGreeny

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Smart is our glue guy, the hustler, the lock-down-D guy. He’s the number three guy no matter who becomes our one-two punch in our next Big 3. He is indispensable. The only way you ever even consider trading him is a situation where in return we get Giannis on a 4-5 year contract in 2020.

Tatum and Brown are both exceptional number twos already, and there is a chance that Tatum will develop into the next Durant, so you do not trade Tatum under any circumstance, even if it means Giannis for 4-5 years.

Kemba is one of the most popular individuals among the league’s players, and he was our marquee free agent last year. You do not trade him under any circumstances in 2020-2022 due to the damage it would do to our brand among future free agents.

Everyone else, including Jaylen, are tradable in multiple scenarios. Mind you, I’d only include Jaylen in a trade for Giannis (100%), Kawhi (100%), maybe Harden (50%), definitely Doncic (but dream on), definitely Embiid (but dream on), definitely Jokic (but dream on), definitely Murray (but dream on), definitely Mitchell (but dream on), maybe Zion (99% but seems incredibly unlikely), and that’s about it.

So the way I see it, there are two players we could maybe get via trading Brown this offseason: Giannis and Harden. Kawhi and Zion are long shots to demand a trade, but not 100% definite they could not be had for Brown, Langford and six first-round picks. If you get Kawhi onboard with being a Celtic, you do it. Zion would be high-risk/high-reward (could become an injury bust, albeit on a cost-controller contract, but could also become the next LeBron). That’s it. Would definitely pull the trigger on Giannis and Kawhi; almost surely take Zion; most likely pass on Harden.
And there is a chance that a lottery pick in this draft will turn into an MVP candidate :laugh:

We’ve been hearing that for seven years now. We got that already with Tatum. Nobody is going to get so lucky to get two of them in the draft in the same era. Not even the Warriors who, yes, drafted Curry and Klay, but did not have two MVPers until getting Durant. And the Lakers got two MVPers through a forced trade (we need to get on that trend) and free agency. We just gotta trade to get that elite superstar, all-NBA first teamer, because there’s no guarantee it’s going to be Tatum and we can’t sit by and watch the Lakers with LeBron pass us for 18 because we want to keep hoping we get incredibly lucky in the draft.

If only we had picked Giannis instead of Olynyk. But now we can possibly get Giannis, give us the future we should have had, albeit with Brown, Langford and six first-round picks not being part of the picture. Giannis was unanimous All-NBA first teamer and reigning back-to-back MVP. Of course it’s going to cost us to outbid everyone else, but the guy wants to be in a big market with a winning championship franchise, so let’s get it done with the supermax and the big trade before he instead leaves the Bucks in 2021 and signs somewhere that can afford him via free agency (Miami, NYK or LAC or, God forbid, LAL)
« Last Edit: October 10, 2020, 02:48:57 AM by GreenlyGreeny »