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Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #60 on: February 21, 2020, 12:44:30 PM »

Offline wiley

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For what it's worth, 538's season projections have Memphis with just an 8% chance of making the playoffs. The Pelicans are at 56% and the Trailblazers are at 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/
I could easily live with that.  suggests that both would catch and pass Memphis pushing the pick to 12 from its current spot at 17.   would love to see SA catch them too.

Given where we've been, the 12th pick would be grand. The only worry then is that they land 12th or 13th and then win the lottery to get the #1 or 2 pick. While it's theoretically possible they won't make the playoffs next year when the pick is unprotected I wouldn't rate that very likely.  Their very young core should improve, they'd have a top new talent to plug in as a role player (at least), and they've got cap money for veteran role players.

plus a healthy Winslow...
(I do think they could miss the playoffs next year, even with additions, unless they really nab an excellent free agent...  Golden State will be back in the playoffs next year...and Portland should rebound).

Anyhow, Pick 14, or 13, would be grand compared to pick 17.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #61 on: February 21, 2020, 01:22:36 PM »

Offline saltlover

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For what it's worth, 538's season projections have Memphis with just an 8% chance of making the playoffs. The Pelicans are at 56% and the Trailblazers are at 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/
I could easily live with that.  suggests that both would catch and pass Memphis pushing the pick to 12 from its current spot at 17.   would love to see SA catch them too.

Given where we've been, the 12th pick would be grand. The only worry then is that they land 12th or 13th and then win the lottery to get the #1 or 2 pick. While it's theoretically possible they won't make the playoffs next year when the pick is unprotected I wouldn't rate that very likely.  Their very young core should improve, they'd have a top new talent to plug in as a role player (at least), and they've got cap money for veteran role players.

This isn’t a worry.

Firstly, I absolutely would trade #12 this year for #17 next year.  It eases the ability of the Celtics to get under the tax next year.  We also have two other firsts and a mid-second, and 12 players with guaranteed money next year, three of whom were just drafted in June.  This doesn’t even count Waters.  We don’t need three firsts this year.  Yeah, the pick gets worse by 5 spots, but even if the quality of the the drafts are identical (and they aren’t!) that’s made up in actually being able to develop the picks we do have and maintaining long-run financial flexibility.

Secondly, Memphis is now capped this summer, so they’re not adding any vets other than with the MLE.  The top of draft is Not considered to be one that will provide a player with immediate impact, and its really unclear how several of the top prospects would even fit in Memphis (neither Ball nor Anthony Edwards would seem to be complimentary with Morant, for instance). In a world where Memphis misses the playoffs, they’d have to leapfrog 3-4 teams to make next year’s postseason, while not being passed by anyone behind them (Golden State being the most logical candidate consider).  It is very likely that Memphis would finish in the same range next year, meaning we’d get something in the 10-14 range with a small chance of lottery luck.

If Memphis missed the playoffs and jumped in the lottery, the downside would be #17, the most likely pick would be around 12, and there would be a small chance that we could get a top 4 pick.  And as I said in the first paragraph, I think the downside is at best a wash and perhaps an improvement over pick 12 this year.

A different way to look at it — if, on draft night, Ainge traded #12 for an unprotected 2021 pick from any of the teams that currently have a losing record, would you be upset?  I know I’d think he made out like a bandit.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #62 on: February 21, 2020, 03:50:48 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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For what it's worth, 538's season projections have Memphis with just an 8% chance of making the playoffs. The Pelicans are at 56% and the Trailblazers are at 30%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/
I could easily live with that.  suggests that both would catch and pass Memphis pushing the pick to 12 from its current spot at 17.   would love to see SA catch them too.

Given where we've been, the 12th pick would be grand. The only worry then is that they land 12th or 13th and then win the lottery to get the #1 or 2 pick. While it's theoretically possible they won't make the playoffs next year when the pick is unprotected I wouldn't rate that very likely.  Their very young core should improve, they'd have a top new talent to plug in as a role player (at least), and they've got cap money for veteran role players.

This isn’t a worry.

Firstly, I absolutely would trade #12 this year for #17 next year.  It eases the ability of the Celtics to get under the tax next year.  We also have two other firsts and a mid-second, and 12 players with guaranteed money next year, three of whom were just drafted in June.  This doesn’t even count Waters.  We don’t need three firsts this year.  Yeah, the pick gets worse by 5 spots, but even if the quality of the the drafts are identical (and they aren’t!) that’s made up in actually being able to develop the picks we do have and maintaining long-run financial flexibility.

Secondly, Memphis is now capped this summer, so they’re not adding any vets other than with the MLE.  The top of draft is Not considered to be one that will provide a player with immediate impact, and its really unclear how several of the top prospects would even fit in Memphis (neither Ball nor Anthony Edwards would seem to be complimentary with Morant, for instance). In a world where Memphis misses the playoffs, they’d have to leapfrog 3-4 teams to make next year’s postseason, while not being passed by anyone behind them (Golden State being the most logical candidate consider).  It is very likely that Memphis would finish in the same range next year, meaning we’d get something in the 10-14 range with a small chance of lottery luck.

If Memphis missed the playoffs and jumped in the lottery, the downside would be #17, the most likely pick would be around 12, and there would be a small chance that we could get a top 4 pick.  And as I said in the first paragraph, I think the downside is at best a wash and perhaps an improvement over pick 12 this year.

A different way to look at it — if, on draft night, Ainge traded #12 for an unprotected 2021 pick from any of the teams that currently have a losing record, would you be upset?  I know I’d think he made out like a bandit.

I understand why you don't want to exercise the pick this year, and so if there aren't any better trades to be made by moving the 12th pick this year it's not so bad for the pick to roll into next year.

But I would expect us to be moving to a lower spot, and I've read enough reviews about the quality of each year's draft class to bring a lot of skepticism to the claims they make.

There were so many stories telling us that the 2016 class was weaker than the 2017 class. Here are the best ten players chosen in the 2016 draft: Simmons, Siakam, Jaylen, Ingram, Sabonis, J. Murray, M.Brodgon, B. Hield, D. Murray, LaVert.
Now 2017: Tatum, Mitchell, Fox, Adebayo, Kuzma, Markkanen, Collins, Allen, Ball, Isaac. Tatum is great, but after that? I'm definitely not seeing 2017 as clearly better than 2016, espeically at positions 5-10. All else equal (which it might not be!) I'd rather give the Cs' front office a higher draft position to choose in and see what they can do.

What I especially remember about 2017 was that this class was "stacked" with franchise-altering point guards: Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Frank Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr., Malik Monk, DeAaron Fox. Well, at least Fox is really good. The rest? https://www.theringer.com/2016/9/22/16077298/2017-nba-draft-point-guards-markelle-fultz-dennis-smith-jr-ef66c2bf3653


Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #63 on: February 21, 2020, 04:41:24 PM »

Offline mef730

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Is 2021 the “double draft,” i.e. college and high school players? That would make next year’s pick that much more valuable.

Mike

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #64 on: February 22, 2020, 10:35:42 AM »

Offline GreenShooter

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Ugh! Let's not compare '16 draft and '17 draft to the '20 draft and '21 draft. Next year will be one of the best in a while. This year is not grand (some "good" prospects but nothing special) after the top 3 or so. I've been banging the drum for next year's draft all year and I will until next year. Too bad we are highly unlikely to pick in the top 12. That is how deep ("at least" 8 deep) it will be.

Also, the HS seniors are eligible for the '22 "double" draft.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #65 on: February 22, 2020, 11:31:12 AM »

Offline footey

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Is 2021 the “double draft,” i.e. college and high school players? That would make next year’s pick that much more valuable.

Mike

I think it's 2022.  Not sure if it's official yet.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #66 on: February 22, 2020, 11:41:13 AM »

Offline footey

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I'm starting to think we should be looking for a point guard in this coming draft; someone who can eventually replace Kemba, whose durability has to be concerning.

I like Waters as a future back up, but not starter. 

Kid I love is Kilian Hayes, 6'5" PG out of France.  Has sweet handle, great court vision.  Would work well in our offensive and defensive schemes. We should focus on a PG who can guard multiple positions. 

Currently slated to go 12 in ESPN Mock.  We can trade up with our extra 1st round picks to grab him.



Another PG is Theo Maledon, also from Europe. In fact, wouldn't surprise me if Celtics draft one of those two guys (Hayes or Maledon) and ask them to stay abroad for a year.



« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 12:01:58 PM by footey »

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #67 on: February 22, 2020, 11:41:57 AM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Is 2021 the “double draft,” i.e. college and high school players? That would make next year’s pick that much more valuable.

Mike

It’s not, they pushed it back past 2021 for sure iirc

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #68 on: February 27, 2020, 10:17:12 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Standings as of 2/27/20 -  will try to update weekly

Memphis pick tied #17—  (last playoff spot in the West) (protected top 6 )
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
New Orleans            3                     25                   24               6-4
Portland                  2.5                   26                   23               4-6
Orlando                   2                     26                    24              5-5
Brooklyn                 1.5                   26                    25              5-5
Memphis               ---                    28                    24              4-6

—>  Memphis coming back down to earth a bit.  they have the most difficult remaining schedule.  the teams chasing them in the West for that playoff spot have much easier schedules and the bottom of the Eastern playoff teams do as well so this pick can quite possibly jump to #12 or even #11 by the end of the season.  No realistic risk of this pick getting worse than it is right now.

Boston Pick #27
                   Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Clippers             2                      39                      24              6-4
Denver                   1                      40                      24              7-3
Boston                  ---                    41                      24              8-2
Toronto                 +1                     42                       24              8-2

-->C's putting real distance between themselves and the rest of the Eastern team below them and gaining on the Raptors.  Quite possible the pick worsens to 28 by the end of the year (would happily take pick #29 if it meant having a better record than the Lakers)

Bucks Pick #30   -- (protected  top 7) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee                  —                      50                     24                9-1

-->  no change.  I’m just going to post the Bucks for this pick until someone gets within hailing distance of them. 

Second Rounders:
Boston 57 (protected 31-53)  — C’s now losing the pick

Brooklyn 46 (least favorable of Brooklyn/Knicks — currently Brooklyn)

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #69 on: February 27, 2020, 10:53:44 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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Standings as of 2/27/20 -  will try to update weekly

Memphis pick tied #17—  (last playoff spot in the West) (protected top 6 )
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
New Orleans            3                     25                   24               6-4
Portland                  2.5                   26                   23               4-6
Orlando                   2                     26                    24              5-5
Brooklyn                 1.5                   26                    25              5-5
Memphis               ---                    28                    24              4-6

—>  Memphis coming back down to earth a bit.  they have the most difficult remaining schedule.  the teams chasing them in the West for that playoff spot have much easier schedules and the bottom of the Eastern playoff teams do as well so this pick can quite possibly jump to #12 or even #11 by the end of the season.  No realistic risk of this pick getting worse than it is right now.

Boston Pick #27
                   Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Clippers             2                      39                      24              6-4
Denver                   1                      40                      24              7-3
Boston                  ---                    41                      24              8-2
Toronto                 +1                     42                       24              8-2

-->C's putting real distance between themselves and the rest of the Eastern team below them and gaining on the Raptors.  Quite possible the pick worsens to 28 by the end of the year (would happily take pick #29 if it meant having a better record than the Lakers)

Bucks Pick #30   -- (protected  top 7) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee                  —                      50                     24                9-1

-->  no change.  I’m just going to post the Bucks for this pick until someone gets within hailing distance of them. 

Second Rounders:
Boston 57 (protected 31-53)  — C’s now losing the pick

Brooklyn 46 (least favorable of Brooklyn/Knicks — currently Brooklyn)
TP for the update!

If Memphis continues to struggle I could see all the teams you listed moving ahead of them. I am hopeful that Memphis can still drop down to 13. With the draft being weak at the top maybe the Celtics could package 13, 27 and 30 to move into the top 10.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #70 on: February 27, 2020, 11:11:24 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Standings as of 2/27/20 -  will try to update weekly

Memphis pick tied #17—  (last playoff spot in the West) (protected top 6 )
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
New Orleans            3                     25                   24               6-4
Portland                  2.5                   26                   23               4-6
Orlando                   2                     26                    24              5-5
Brooklyn                 1.5                   26                    25              5-5
Memphis               ---                    28                    24              4-6

—>  Memphis coming back down to earth a bit.  they have the most difficult remaining schedule.  the teams chasing them in the West for that playoff spot have much easier schedules and the bottom of the Eastern playoff teams do as well so this pick can quite possibly jump to #12 or even #11 by the end of the season.  No realistic risk of this pick getting worse than it is right now.

Boston Pick #27
                   Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Clippers             2                      39                      24              6-4
Denver                   1                      40                      24              7-3
Boston                  ---                    41                      24              8-2
Toronto                 +1                     42                       24              8-2

-->C's putting real distance between themselves and the rest of the Eastern team below them and gaining on the Raptors.  Quite possible the pick worsens to 28 by the end of the year (would happily take pick #29 if it meant having a better record than the Lakers)

Bucks Pick #30   -- (protected  top 7) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee                  —                      50                     24                9-1

-->  no change.  I’m just going to post the Bucks for this pick until someone gets within hailing distance of them. 

Second Rounders:
Boston 57 (protected 31-53)  — C’s now losing the pick

Brooklyn 46 (least favorable of Brooklyn/Knicks — currently Brooklyn)
TP for the update!

If Memphis continues to struggle I could see all the teams you listed moving ahead of them. I am hopeful that Memphis can still drop down to 13. With the draft being weak at the top maybe the Celtics could package 13, 27 and 30 to move into the top 10.
hoping that by my post next week SA joins the pack gaining on Memphis.  Sac is tied with SA at 3.5 behind Memphis but I'm not as optimistic on their chances.  SA should not be as bad as they are this year.

Ideally, the last West playoff spot is taken by either NO or Portland pushing Memphis into the lottery.  also, whichever of those two misses the playoffs also passes Memphis in addition to SA getting it together down the stretch.  won't have to worry about the bottom of the eastern playoff teams messing with the lottery spot so best case is Memphis falls behind 2 other non-playoff teams in the West to end up at 12.  I'd like to hope Sac also gets hot and passes Memphis but I just don't see that happening.  Closest Eastern non-playoff team is Wash and they're 6.5 games behind and they're just not going to catch Memphis in just over 20 games left no matter how much they could possibly get it together.


Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #71 on: February 27, 2020, 11:23:13 AM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

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I like the Memphis pick getting better, but I really hope Danny can either roll the Boston and Bucks picks forward. Either trade them together or separately to a team/s that doesn’t have a pick this year for a future pick, or trading them and 1 (or more) of our bench players for a solid bench big.

Bundling them to move up or drafting and stashing a Euro are probably less likely, but anything would be better than having 4 more rookies, 3 with guaranteed contracts as 1st rounders, going into camp next year.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #72 on: February 27, 2020, 11:33:56 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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upcoming week of games with implications for the Memphis Pick:

Memphis: Sac, Lakers, @ Atl, @Brooklyn
NO: Cle, Lakers, Minny, @Dal
Portland: @Indy, @ Atl, @ Orl, Wash
SA: Orl, Indy, @Cha
Sac: @OKC, @Mem, Det, Wash

absolute best case, Memphis loses all 4 games, NO, Portland, Sac win their 4 and SA wins their 3 but we know that's not happening.

Most reasonable results:
Mem: 1-3 with a win over Sac.  could go 2-2 depending on how Atl plays.
NO: 2-2 with losses to Lakers and Dallas but considering how they've improved, 4-0 or 3-1 wouldn't shock me.
Portland: 1-3 with the only bankable win against Wash.  Portland's a hot mess but who know, they could go 4-0 or 3-1.  Only real tough team is Indy. 
SA: 3-0.   anything less is a real disappointment. 
Sac: 2-2.  figure they lose on the road and win at home.

All but Portland figure to gain some ground on Memphis this coming week based on reasonable outcomes but that's why they play the games.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #73 on: February 27, 2020, 11:40:08 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I like the Memphis pick getting better, but I really hope Danny can either roll the Boston and Bucks picks forward. Either trade them together or separately to a team/s that doesn’t have a pick this year for a future pick, or trading them and 1 (or more) of our bench players for a solid bench big.

Bundling them to move up or drafting and stashing a Euro are probably less likely, but anything would be better than having 4 more rookies, 3 with guaranteed contracts as 1st rounders, going into camp next year.
My personal speculation is either the Celtic or Bucks pick is used in a deal to unload Poirier's contract for next season.  Might cost us Edwards too depending on what we can get back in terms of either a useful bench guy or future first rounder. 

I wouldn't be adverse to trading all of the picks and some of the lower end of the roster to get a couple of decent low-cost vets for the bench next year either.  no one in this draft is jumping out at me for where we'll be picking.  The assumption is that Hayward and Kanter return, possibly Semi returning depending on what we can do in trades/FA signings, and that the team sees next year as the time to move to real contender status with the development of Tatum and Brown this season.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #74 on: February 27, 2020, 12:08:02 PM »

Offline gift

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Ugh! Let's not compare '16 draft and '17 draft to the '20 draft and '21 draft. Next year will be one of the best in a while. This year is not grand (some "good" prospects but nothing special) after the top 3 or so. I've been banging the drum for next year's draft all year and I will until next year. Too bad we are highly unlikely to pick in the top 12. That is how deep ("at least" 8 deep) it will be.

Also, the HS seniors are eligible for the '22 "double" draft.

I'm loving the '21 draft so far.