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Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« on: January 02, 2020, 02:14:23 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Back again with my (almost annual) thread on tracking the C's picks for this coming draft. 
Link to last year's thread below:
https://forum.celticsstrong.com/index.php?topic=98568.0

Standings as of 1/2/20 -  will try to update weekly

Memphis pick tied #11--  (tied with Phoenix and Chicago) (protected top 6 ) 
                   Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Sacramento             1.0                  12                     48                1-9
Detroit                    1.0                  12                     48                2-8
Charlotte                 1.0                  13                     46                 3-7
Minnesota                0.5                  12                     49                2-8
Memphis                ---                   13                     48                 5-5
Phoenix                    ---                   13                     48                 2-8
Chicago                   ---                   13                     48                 5-5
Portland                  +0.5                 14                     47                 4-6

-->  tie with 2 other teams gives them a tie at 11.  Pick would convey to us this year.  Figure the pick will probably climb a few spots before the end of the season but not into the top 6 to be protected pre-lottery drawing.

Boston Pick #27  -- Tie with Miami
                   Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
LA Clippers               1.0                  24                     47                6-4
Denver                    1.0                   23                     49                8-2
Boston                    ---                   23                     51                7-3
Miami                      ---                    24                     49                7-3

-->C's pick could get a bit worse if Denver, Houston and the Clips get their acts together and the C’s falter a bit. 

Bucks Pick #30   -- (protected  top 7) 
                        Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Milwaukee                  —                    31                     46                  8-2

-->  Bucks pick looking pretty secure as the last pick in the first round this year.  would really have to fall off for this pick to climb.  no way this pick isn’t conveying this year.


Second Rounders:
Boston 58 (protected 31-53)  — fair chance the C’s get to keep this pick

Brooklyn 47 (least favorable of Brooklyn/Knicks — currently Brooklyn)

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2020, 02:14:53 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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double post

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2020, 02:30:31 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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You’re back!!! TP

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2020, 10:17:03 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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You’re back!!! TP
TP back at ya.  love an appreciative audience   ;D

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2020, 01:02:00 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Man, Blazers are broken.
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2020, 01:36:57 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Memphis should be tanking hard now to start their rebuild this year, instead of next, but I'm not sure what they can do.

I guess contender teams would happily take Crowder for a rental, maybe Anderson.

Not sure who would kick the tyes on Valancuinas, or even have space...
"Gimme the ball, gimme the ball". Freddy Quimby, 1994.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2020, 08:37:14 AM »

Offline dannyboy35

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Memphis should be tanking hard now to start their rebuild this year, instead of next, but I'm not sure what they can do.

I guess contender teams would happily take Crowder for a rental, maybe Anderson.

Not sure who would kick the tyes on Valancuinas, or even have space...

   I think they’d rather give up the pick this year. I expect that pick lands somewhere between 10-13 for the Celtics. There’s just too many deliberate tankers. Last year’s draft I thought was s killer for us. I wanted it to convey LAST year in the 10 range.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2020, 09:40:46 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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Memphis should be tanking hard now to start their rebuild this year, instead of next, but I'm not sure what they can do.

I guess contender teams would happily take Crowder for a rental, maybe Anderson.

Not sure who would kick the tyes on Valancuinas, or even have space...

   I think they’d rather give up the pick this year. I expect that pick lands somewhere between 10-13 for the Celtics. There’s just too many deliberate tankers. Last year’s draft I thought was s killer for us. I wanted it to convey LAST year in the 10 range.
I think it's a tough call for them.  I can see where they wouldn't want to instill a culture of losing with their young players so tanking wouldn't necessarily be embraced --> playing well enough for the pick to convey this year with so many bad teams may be to their best advantage.   Next year, some of this year's crappy teams figure to be better and Memphis may be only slightly better or possibly worse since it's not a FA destination -- very possibly playing themselves into a pretty good pick in 2021

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2020, 09:51:59 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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Memphis should be tanking hard now to start their rebuild this year, instead of next, but I'm not sure what they can do.

I guess contender teams would happily take Crowder for a rental, maybe Anderson.

Not sure who would kick the tyes on Valancuinas, or even have space...

   I think they’d rather give up the pick this year. I expect that pick lands somewhere between 10-13 for the Celtics. There’s just too many deliberate tankers. Last year’s draft I thought was s killer for us. I wanted it to convey LAST year in the 10 range.

I think that's the bind they're in. There are enough good young players on Memphis, and enough truly terrible teams, that it's going to be hard for them to tank hard enough to protect their pick. They'd want to at least land fifth worst, arguably they need to be bottom 4 to be comfortably protected against leapfrogging in the lottery.  That isn't easy if they keep their core. (Worst possible outcome for them is they trade away some vets to tank hard, land fifth, and then end up conveying the 7th pick to Boston because of bad lottery luck.)

On the flip side, they're only two games out of the playoffs right now and their cap sheet is going to be wide open next year. Maybe they should make small moves if they can to reach the playoffs. Establish a culture of winning and try to attract a good FA to play with their promising young core.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2020, 10:00:25 AM by Sophomore »

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2020, 09:52:01 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Even the last two weeks when Memphis was .500 or so they're profiling as the 20th team by point differential and for the entire year they are 24th.

I think they're going to be right at the line where they could deliberately tank in the last two months to likely secure the pick (newly flat lottery odds make it impossible to be sure). (ala the Warriors with the pick that became Harrison Barnes)

A lot comes down to if the Knicks/Pelicans/Wolves/Detroit pull themselves together a bit more. Memphis and about 5 or 6 teams all seem about the same quality so it could end up being like a 5 coin flip tie or something crazy.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2020, 10:07:14 AM »

Offline SDceltGuy

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I would be nice if we could bundle these picks and get one premium pick, too bad it doesn't work like the NFL.  What would we even do with 3 more mediocre guys? 

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2020, 10:16:52 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I would be nice if we could bundle these picks and get one premium pick, too bad it doesn't work like the NFL.  What would we even do with 3 more mediocre guys?
I mean it does, but much like the NFL usually trading up is a bad idea. Trades like the Doncic for Trae/Reddish are the exception.

Typically you get stuff like OJ Mayo for Love. Or Garry Harris/Jusuf Nurkic for Doug McDermott.

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2020, 10:28:18 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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tp for the work that went into the post and thread. many thanks.

what is interesting right now is how closely packed the teams are from #7 to #12. there are EIGHT teams in 6 slots.

who knows how this will shake out by seaon's end. it also make it hard to know who to root for on any given night.  ::)
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Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2020, 10:40:23 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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I would be nice if we could bundle these picks and get one premium pick, too bad it doesn't work like the NFL.  What would we even do with 3 more mediocre guys?
I mean it does, but much like the NFL usually trading up is a bad idea. Trades like the Doncic for Trae/Reddish are the exception.

Typically you get stuff like OJ Mayo for Love. Or Garry Harris/Jusuf Nurkic for Doug McDermott.
If it becomes clearer that the Memphis conveys, I would anticipate Danny moving the C's and Bucks' picks for either a higher single pick or for future picks.   I could see him taking high risk/high reward swings with the second rounders to see if he can find an overlooked gem.

Team is loaded with young players.  I can't see bringing in 3 more guaranteed rookies and 2 second rounders for next year.   only player who's only signed through this year is Wanamaker who I would anticipate getting a better deal elsewhere.  I'd pencil Waters into his slot for next year.  Kanter and Hayward have player options.  I'm confident Hayward will stay.  I think Kanter may term his deal for better money elsewhere.  Semi is on a team option.  not sure if the C's will keep him -- he's cheap, plays D and seems to be a good locker room guy but is that enough to keep him with GWill developing? 

Add in Theis not being on a fully guaranteed deal but I'd expect that to be picked up.  Green's not fully guaranteed next year either (or this year) but he's looked good when he's played so I think he'll be kept.

not a lot of room left for rookies.  sure, a 7-10 pick would be welcomed but 2 picks at the tail end of the first round owed guaranteed money and roster spots -- not so much

Re: Celtics 2020 Draft picks
« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2020, 11:43:12 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I just don't think Memphis is conveying the pick this year unless they hit on the lottery.  There are just too many awful teams and too many bad teams, especially in the East.  The Hawks, Cavs, Knicks, and Wizards are just atrocious.  They all will probably start selling off veterans soon.  I think Detroit is going to sell off anyone they can as the current group obviously doesn't work.  Charlotte is just bad and I do think the Hornets might finally decide to go full on tank.  The Bulls are just young, but are terrible.  Now the west is a bit different as the Warriors should get better if Curry comes back (though maybe he doesn't come back).  The Pelicans should be better with Zion, but they also might go into selling mode and finally move Jrue (among others), which might counteract Zion's bump.  The Kings, Suns, and Wolves are all just bad teams.  Memphis could easily finish better than all of them. 

Of course, as I said in another thread, the Grizzlies probably win the lottery, take Wiseman and then make the playoffs next year with Wiseman, Jackson, and Morant as their core.   That would be the C's luck.
Historical Draft - Portland Trailblazers
PG - Magic Johnson, Tony Parker
SG - Clyde Drexler, Dennis Johnson, Alvin Robertson
SF - James Worthy, Alex English
PF - Charles Barkley, Ben Wallace
C - Moses Malone, George Mikan, Brad Daugherty