Siakam 4 year max deal

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

Sorry but the math is fine. You are not accounting for the future allstars or border line allstars that were drafted already in that range .

My assumption is that to meet that criteria you have to better at some point in your career ( could be in the future) that Avery Bradley at his best. He was the most valuable contract at some point but not borderline all star.
To make the math easy if 5 players meet the criteria out of 30 that is 83.3% chance you miss each time you draft.
0.8333^14 is 7.8% chance of missing 14 times.

Wow. That is (quite literally) the broadest definition of "borderline all star" you could have without giving any credit to Ainge. I don't think anyone would agree with that definition (outside of using it to bash Ainge's drafting)

Yes I made an intentional cut of at Bradley’s best year as that’s the best player he’s drafted in the 10-40 range in the last 12 years.
What my assumption is saying is that Bradley will be just outside the best 60 players drafted 10-40 since 2007.

[hwangjini_1]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

just eyeballing this site below, but on average, roughly 30% (or less) of all players chosen in the nba draft range of picks by ainge are able to make it beyond being bench players. if this is so, then ainge is not what you are making him out to be as a drafter.

https://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

besides, missing the secret star in the draft? by definition such players are missed by virtually all GMs arent they? so ainge would not be alone.

i once looked at San Antonio draft history based upon "they could have drafted X who turned out better than the player they drafted" and found SA to have a "poor record" with lots of "misses." are we to suppose their management is filled with baboons who dont know how to draft?

no. the point here is that looking at someone's drafting ability by solely focusing upon "they missed x later in the draft and he became a star" is a flawed and misleading approach.

we keep showing how the same points on this and other topics ("doc never played rookies!") are flawed, and yet they reappear. perhaps it is the nature of blogs such as this that institutional memories are largely absent.

[Moranis]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

No, they probably aren't. You're severely, severely over rating the #15 guys on other teams - some of them are actually pretty decent, but most of them are just as bad or worse than the guys you listed. And over 20 years? There's been plenty more than 50 completely useless stiffs that got drafted and made rosters

Any source on that 10-15% of picks 10-40 being all stars/borderline all stars? That would give you 3-5 from that range in every draft, which is not at all the case (I just took a quick look at a 10 draft span [2006-2015], and I found 14 all stars in that period [well, 13+Gobert, but he's made all-nba so I'll count it], one of which was drafted by Ainge. That gives you just under 5%, a far cry from the 10-15% you gave. You could argue that "borderline all star" makes up another 5-10% there, but you'd have to have a pretty broad category of borderline all stars for that [I would say there were about 7 definite borderline all stars, and 7 that you could make some sort of argument for]). Based on what I just looked at, 7-9% seems more accurate, but even then it's closer to the lower end, and definitely nowhere near 15%. You would expect Ainge to have one in the past 11-14 years, which is about what he has (Rondo in 2006)

Players taken 10-40 from 2008 on that were all stars or borderline all stars

2008 - 3 All Stars (Lopez, Hibbert, Jordan) - 4 borderline (Ibaka, Batum, Hill, Peckovic) - Dragic went 45
2009 - 2 All Stars (Holiday, Teague) - 0 borderline
2010 - 1 All Star (George) - 2 borderline (Bledsoe, Whiteside) - Bradley and Stephenson had decent hype
2011 - 4 All Stars (Thompson, Leonard, Vucevic, Butler) - 3 Borderline (Harris, Mirotic, Parsons) - Thomas went 60, Faried in that Bradley category
2012 - 2 All Stars (Green, Middleton) - 0 borderline
2013 - 1 All Star (Giannis) - 2 borderline (McCollum, Gobert) - Adams, Covington, and Schroder in that next tier down

Doesn't make a lot of sense to keep going given the age.  So in those 6 drafts there were 13 all stars, 11 borderline all stars, 6 guys just below borderline, and 2 all stars drafted after 40.  That is a lot of very good players, though a lot of those players were drafted in the teens.  There were very few in the 20's or later.

[NKY fan]

Another way of looking at his drafting:
He is probably the GM made the most draft picks in the last 40 or so years. Sam hinkie would have surpassed him but he only lasted 2-3 years as a GM.. spurs GM might be ahead of him but they only make 2 selections per draft.
I assume he has made close to 50 selections so far in his GM career.
16 seasons times 3 (could be more he was rebuilding 2 times) on average per draft.
Draft selection should include picks he traded for on draft night and subtract the ones he traded away on draft night.

So far he has delivered only one all star and that is Rondo.

You could argue he is working usually in the high teens to late fifties and that’s legitimate but it still looks bad.

 It is not any individual pick that was bad although I pointed to 7 picks that were really bad ... it is the Accumulation of all his picks in a league where stars matter more than any league ... which is a significant number that makes it look bad.

[liam]

A major flaw in the "What if" drafting is that players would all turn out as they have no matter who drafted them. I think the prime example is players drafted by the Suns. Would some of these players have turned out totally different if the Suns hadn't drafted them? A large amount of Celtics drafted in Ainge's time as GM never got to play. E'twaun Moore is a good example as he was let go of early and still managed to land in a good spot. Ainge should also get a ton of credit for drafting Tatum over Fultz. What if-ing is a slippery slope...

[hwangjini_1]

your ever moving responses now must assume that GMs that pick stars late in the draft do so knowing they are picking stars while other GMs miss because they dont recognize stars. so, not drafting a star, who are of course rare at the range, must be a function of poor judgement, not luck.

this is a weak basis for your argument.

[NKY fan]

A major flaw in the "What if" drafting is that players would all turn out as they have no matter who drafted them. I think the prime example is players drafted by the Suns. Would some of these players have turned out totally different if the Suns hadn't drafted them? A large amount of Celtics drafted in Ainge's time as GM never got to play. E'twaun Moore is a good example as he was let go of early and still managed to land in a good spot. Ainge should also get a ton of credit for drafting Tatum over Fultz. What if-ing is a slippery slope...

I Totally gave credit to ainge for his drafting late in the draft.
I guess my argument is ainge is definitely not above average drafter. He has had a ton of draft picks in the teens and 20s.. he should have traded those picks for big men help or backup point guards when we needed that. Instead he just makes all these picks sometimes 3-4 in the 10-40 range and gets very little return on those picks for various reasons.

[NKY fan]

your ever moving responses now must assume that GMs that pick stars late in the draft do so knowing they are picking stars while other GMs miss because they dont recognize stars. so, not drafting a star, who are of course rare at the range, must be a function of poor judgement, not luck.

this is a weak basis for your argument.

I have been pretty consistent in my criticism of ainge’s drafting in the 10-40 range. I have expressed my opinions in other treads in the last year or so. I think there is a trend there and it is backed by the numbers it just depends how you quantify the quality of his drafting in that range.