Siakam 4 year max deal

[hwangjini_1]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

[liam]

Siakam is overrated

Foolish move by Masai

Could have got away with 20-25 million per season

Whats next, max for van vleet?

My guess would be Lowry gets traded in summer VanVleet becomes the starting PG...

However Siakam is miles ahead of Tatum and Brown... The man dropped a 35 bomb in the NBA finals on 80% shooting game 1 and just opened the season with 34/5/18 he's an NBA champion and could make All NBA, All Star and All Defense a lot of idiots making dumb money aka John Wall cough... But Siakam isn't one of them.

Anyways we'll find out tomorrow night I guess Celtics hosting Raptors.

Siakam is years ahead of Tatum and Brown, literally...

[Sophomore]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

[liam]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Some that are still playing in the 10-40 range since 2008: Avery Bradley, E-Twaun Moore, Terry Rozier, Abdel Nader, Zizic, Semi, and Timelord. before 2008 you also have Rondo, Gerald Green, Tony Allen, Al Jefferson, Delonte West,

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Some that are still playing in the 10-40 range since 2008: Avery Bradley, E-Twaun Moore, Terry Rozier, Abdel Nader, Zizic, Semi, and Timelord.

Moore and Nader were drafted in the 50s ... Danny ainge’s drafting is actually sneaky good in the 40-60 range
The thing is that picks that late can be purchased for a million dollars or less.. the picks in in the 10-40 range maybe should have been used to trade for big men help... something he’s neglected to do in the last 12 years. Robin Lopez from the suns was available the year before melo and sully were drafted ... they were asking for a late first and Danny refused to do it. We got murdered in the paint that year.

[nickagneta]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

[liam]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Some that are still playing in the 10-40 range since 2008: Avery Bradley, E-Twaun Moore, Terry Rozier, Abdel Nader, Zizic, Semi, and Timelord.

Moore and Nader were drafted in the 50s ... Danny ainge’s drafting is actually sneaky good in the 40-60 range
The thing is that picks that late can be purchased for a million dollars or less.. the picks in in the 10-40 range maybe should have been used to trade for big men help... something he’s neglected to do in the last 12 years. Robin Lopez from the suns was available the year before melo and sully were drafted ... they were asking for a late first and Danny refused to do it. We got murdered in the paint that year.

Oh, and I forgot Powe and Big Baby...

[BitterJim]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

No, they probably aren't. You're severely, severely over rating the #15 guys on other teams - some of them are actually pretty decent, but most of them are just as bad or worse than the guys you listed. And over 20 years? There's been plenty more than 50 completely useless stiffs that got drafted and made rosters

Any source on that 10-15% of picks 10-40 being all stars/borderline all stars? That would give you 3-5 from that range in every draft, which is not at all the case (I just took a quick look at a 10 draft span [2006-2015], and I found 14 all stars in that period [well, 13+Gobert, but he's made all-nba so I'll count it], one of which was drafted by Ainge. That gives you just under 5%, a far cry from the 10-15% you gave. You could argue that "borderline all star" makes up another 5-10% there, but you'd have to have a pretty broad category of borderline all stars for that [I would say there were about 7 definite borderline all stars, and 7 that you could make some sort of argument for]). Based on what I just looked at, 7-9% seems more accurate, but even then it's closer to the lower end, and definitely nowhere near 15%. You would expect Ainge to have one in the past 11-14 years, which is about what he has (Rondo in 2006)

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

Sorry but the math is fine. You are not accounting for the future allstars or border line allstars that were drafted already in that range .

My assumption is that to meet that criteria you have to better at some point in your career ( could be in the future) that Avery Bradley at his best. He was the most valuable contract at some point but not borderline all star.
To make the math easy if 5 players meet the criteria out of 30 that is 83.3% chance you miss each time you draft.
0.8333^14 is 7.8% chance of missing 14 times.

[BitterJim]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

My one critique would be that the last few drafts are probably a bit early to tell on as far as All Star appearances go (I was even a bit worried that 2015 would be too recent in my analysis, but it actually seems about right). Despite that, though, we got a similar number of borderline all stars, and a pretty close overall result. TP

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

No, they probably aren't. You're severely, severely over rating the #15 guys on other teams - some of them are actually pretty decent, but most of them are just as bad or worse than the guys you listed. And over 20 years? There's been plenty more than 50 completely useless stiffs that got drafted and made rosters

Any source on that 10-15% of picks 10-40 being all stars/borderline all stars? That would give you 3-5 from that range in every draft, which is not at all the case (I just took a quick look at a 10 draft span [2006-2015], and I found 14 all stars in that period [well, 13+Gobert, but he's made all-nba so I'll count it], one of which was drafted by Ainge. That gives you just under 5%, a far cry from the 10-15% you gave. You could argue that "borderline all star" makes up another 5-10% there, but you'd have to have a pretty broad category of borderline all stars for that [I would say there were about 7 definite borderline all stars, and 7 that you could make some sort of argument for]). Based on what I just looked at, 7-9% seems more accurate, but even then it's closer to the lower end, and definitely nowhere near 15%. You would expect Ainge to have one in the past 11-14 years, which is about what he has (Rondo in 2006)

I might have exaggerated a little on the 7 worst players .. I admit I have exaggerated before lol.
I will take the time sometime to check which players clocked in the lowest minutes played from the last 15 drafts. And get back here

[BitterJim]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

Sorry but the math is fine. You are not accounting for the future allstars or border line allstars that were drafted already in that range .

My assumption is that to meet that criteria you have to better at some point in your career ( could be in the future) that Avery Bradley at his best. He was the most valuable contract at some point but not borderline all star.
To make the math easy if 5 players meet the criteria out of 30 that is 83.3% chance you miss each time you draft.
0.8333^14 is 7.8% chance of missing 14 times.

Wow. That is (quite literally) the broadest definition of "borderline all star" you could have without giving any credit to Ainge. I don't think anyone would agree with that definition (outside of using it to bash Ainge's drafting)

[BitterJim]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

No, they probably aren't. You're severely, severely over rating the #15 guys on other teams - some of them are actually pretty decent, but most of them are just as bad or worse than the guys you listed. And over 20 years? There's been plenty more than 50 completely useless stiffs that got drafted and made rosters

Any source on that 10-15% of picks 10-40 being all stars/borderline all stars? That would give you 3-5 from that range in every draft, which is not at all the case (I just took a quick look at a 10 draft span [2006-2015], and I found 14 all stars in that period [well, 13+Gobert, but he's made all-nba so I'll count it], one of which was drafted by Ainge. That gives you just under 5%, a far cry from the 10-15% you gave. You could argue that "borderline all star" makes up another 5-10% there, but you'd have to have a pretty broad category of borderline all stars for that [I would say there were about 7 definite borderline all stars, and 7 that you could make some sort of argument for]). Based on what I just looked at, 7-9% seems more accurate, but even then it's closer to the lower end, and definitely nowhere near 15%. You would expect Ainge to have one in the past 11-14 years, which is about what he has (Rondo in 2006)

I might have exaggerated a little on the 7 worst players .. I admit I have exaggerated before lol.
I will take the time sometime to check which players clocked in the lowest minutes played from the last 15 drafts. And get back here

One tip for that, Wikipedia's pages for NBA drafts highlights players that have played 0 nba minutes in gray, you may want to take advantage of that to either 1. grab 15 of the or 2. discount them since they never actually played.

For some reference, there seems to be about as many guys that never play as guys that make all star teams

[NKY fan]

Raptors are going as far as Siakam and Lowry can bring them...

a top 5 team in the East.

Siakam is the real deal. Wish we had him. Nobody knew he will develop this good.

i liked him at draft time. but never in my wildest imagination did i think he would turn out this good. it just shows how difficult it is to judge talent in the draft.

Danny took Yabu and Zizic over Siakam that year.

(I'm not an Ainge-basher on the draft - a *lot* of GMs missed on that one! Just one of those painful what-ifs. Not quite on the level of taking Kelly over Giannis, but not too far down; Kelly was at least an NBA player....)

Danny has made 14 draft selections in the 10-40 range in the period 2008-2018
7 of those are probably in the worst 50 players to be on an nba roster in the last 20 years.
Jr Giddens - 30th pick
Jajuan Johnson - 27th pick
Fab melo (rip) - 22nd pick
James young - 17th pick
RJ Hunter - 28th pick
Jordan Mickey - 33rd pick
Guershon Yabusele - 16th pick

2 busts:
 sullinger (weight) and zizic (can’t get much playing time on the worst team in nba)

Timelord May join them as well..

 this is really depressing given that the chance of drafting an all star or borderline allstar in the 10-40 range is probably 10-15% or 3-5 players in that range that meet the criteria in any given draft...

 and Danny is 0 of 14 in the last 12 years. If you’re just randomly drafting players and make 14 selections you have 6-7% chance of doing that bad..

Hate bad math.

There have been 12 All-Stars chosen since 2008 in the 10-40 range. That's 3.33% chance at landing an All-Star any given year. Borderline All-Star is too subjective a term to measure. But let's assume there are at least 6 guys that everyone agrees are "borderline" All-Stars.  That's 18 in 12 years or 5% chance to land one of those players in any one year.

And in order to go 0 for 14. You have to remember for each year there is only a 5% chance to land a player. So there is a 95% chance you don't or get a 0. So to go 0 for 14 you have to multiple .95 by itself 14 times, which means you have a 48.7% chance to go 0 for 14.

Sorry but the math is fine. You are not accounting for the future allstars or border line allstars that were drafted already in that range .

My assumption is that to meet that criteria you have to better at some point in your career ( could be in the future) that Avery Bradley at his best. He was the most valuable contract at some point but not borderline all star.
To make the math easy if 5 players meet the criteria out of 30 that is 83.3% chance you miss each time you draft.
0.8333^14 is 7.8% chance of missing 14 times.

Wow. That is (quite literally) the broadest definition of "borderline all star" you could have without giving any credit to Ainge. I don't think anyone would agree with that definition (outside of using it to bash Ainge's drafting)

I am bashing ainge’s drafting in the last 12 years. Absolutely!
Since he delivered the title in 2008 he has been given freedom to do whatever he wants ..
I as an actuary often use data to prove a point and to isolate trends in some line of business.. I’m using the data to figure how good or bad he’s done drafting in the 10-40 range... those are the picks he has been very stingy with at the trade deadline... the only one I can think of is the IT trade for a late pick. So trades like that he should have done more proactively 🤷🏻‍♂️