Jermaine O'Neal- "I am going to try and talk Sheed into coming back "

[StealthB]

I am amazed that everyone thinks JO is going to stay healthy the entire season and Perk is going to be 100% after the all-star break.  We need another big man for insurance and I don't think Erden is that big man right now.  If JO goes down for extended time Erden is the only other guy to step in really.  KG and baby can't split time at the 4 and 5 positions for 48 minutes. Even if Eren does play I don't think Doc will look for more than 10 minutes a night.  I know we really need a wing, but I think I would rather have Sheed come back and back up JO at the 5 and let KG and Baby play the 4. We need the length. 

Moreover, given the current wings that are available there isn't much to trade Sheed's contract for that is willing to come to Boston.  I don't believe Barnes is coming here, nor Josh Howard who probably won't be available at the beginning of the season anyhow.

We should definitely try and get a solid wing as our number 1 priority to back up Pierce and another guard to spell Allen, but we shouldn't throw out the idea of keeping Sheed just for the mere fact that JO is injury prone and I wouldn't want to be stuck with Erden as a starting center for an extended period of time. 

[GreenFaith1819]

I laughed to myself when I saw this thread. I love Sheed, but the only way I would welcome him back is if he played the same way throughout the regular season as he did in that Game 7. Lord knows we needed him during the regular season last yr, but we'd need him even moreso this time.

I just don't know if he is healthy enough to do that, or willing. Sure - I did a lot of defending for the man, but with Perk being out, we would need Sheed 150% to fill his role.

I just don't know if Sheed is ready to do that. But Man, it would be nice - imagine Game 7 Sheed doing that for us in the regular season.

Either way, we still need a wing, but that's old news. I believe Danny won't let us down, though...we still have what, 2 months before training camp?

that's right, and we have 6 or 7 months before the trading deadline, so Danny is fine

Haha - yes, that is an option, too...but I hope we can get something done wing-wise before then. It won't be pretty for the C's if Pierce (Or Ray) are playing more than 35 min a game.

[Jon]

I am amazed that everyone thinks JO is going to stay healthy the entire season and Perk is going to be 100% after the all-star break.  We need another big man for insurance and I don't think Erden is that big man right now.  If JO goes down for extended time Erden is the only other guy to step in really.  KG and baby can't split time at the 4 and 5 positions for 48 minutes. Even if Eren does play I don't think Doc will look for more than 10 minutes a night.  I know we really need a wing, but I think I would rather have Sheed come back and back up JO at the 5 and let KG and Baby play the 4. We need the length. 

Moreover, given the current wings that are available there isn't much to trade Sheed's contract for that is willing to come to Boston.  I don't believe Barnes is coming here, nor Josh Howard who probably won't be available at the beginning of the season anyhow.

We should definitely try and get a solid wing as our number 1 priority to back up Pierce and another guard to spell Allen, but we shouldn't throw out the idea of keeping Sheed just for the mere fact that JO is injury prone and I wouldn't want to be stuck with Erden as a starting center for an extended period of time. 

But it really doesn't matter if JO misses 5, 10, or even 15 regular season games.  This team is fully capable of winning 50 games and being a top 4 seed even if that happens.  All that matters is that he's healthy for the playoffs.  And if he and/or Perk aren't, we probably aren't going to win it all anyway, so this whole Sheed business is really meaningless. 

And my point about Perk is that he doesn't necessarily have to be the old Perk for us to win it: he can be the 4th big if BBD, JO, and KG all step up.  And the 4th big probably needs to play fewer than 10 mpg during the playoffs. 

[drza44]

Right now, the C's have 3 rotation quality big men.  They have 2 rotation quality wings.  You can more than make due with 3 big men in the playoffs, you cannot with only 2 wings.  So I think wing is the bigger need right now.

And looking at the vet minimum free agent options, I think there are much better options as a 4th big man than as a 3rd wing.  Guys like Kurt Thomas, Kwame Brown, Juwan Howard, Craig Smith, Josh Boone, Rasho Nesterovic, or Fabricio Oberto would be better options as 4th big man then any of the vet free agent options would be as 3rd wing.  

I disagree about the scarcity and need for this team.  I have no doubt we could come out with a Posey/Daniels caliber 3rd (and possibly) 4th wing before the season begins, and I'd be conten with that.  And of the players on your list, I'm actually fine with a Rasho or a Kwame in that slot (centers that can and have played starter minutes and can contribute).

But the overarching lesson I got from the way last year played out is that this team absolutely has to have length up front.  That game 7 loss was more about the fact that Baby just isn't long enough to compete with the Lakers frontline than anything else.  When KG and Sheed were in the game, we were ok.  But when they got in foul trouble, it was a problem.  Similarly, this year, in order to beat the Heat we need our big man advantage.

For this Celtic team, my hierarchy of necessity would be:

1) Big man defense
2) Effective initiation of the offense
3) Wing scoring

If any of our main guys get injured it hurts.  But I don't buy the 3 bigs vs 2 wings on roster argument, because we really only have 2 bigs that can play the way we need to for the team to be at it's best.  If either KG or O'Neal go down for any extended period, we need another 7-footer on hand to keep our defense tight.  If that's a Rasho-type, that's fine.  But to me it's a bigger issue than whoever we could get to back up Paul and Ray.  

With healthy bigs, healthy Rondo/Nate, and either a healthy Pierce or Allen along with a couple of other replacement-caliber wings they could still play Celtics basketball at a near championship level.  With healthy Rondo/Nate, healthy wings, and only one starting caliber 7-footer on the roster this team would be in a world of hurt as the defense is still their bread and butter.

You mean Posey right now?  Or Posey in 2008?  Because I do not see anyone close to Posey in 2008 available for the vet minimum.

And let's be 100% clear about something.  If Perkins is not back to close to 100% by the playoffs, this team does not stand a chance to win a title.  They also will not sniff a title if they do not have an exceptional wing off the bench.  So, if Perkins is not going to be back, they need to trade him.  Otherwise, they need to find a way to hold down the fort until he returns, and that means not having huge holes.

I agree.  The wing spot is going to be far harder to fix with the minimum than merely adding one more big. 

I also don't understand this "if KG or O'Neal goes down" business.  What do you mean?  If either goes down for 5-10 games during the regular season, it doesn't matter: this team will make the playoffs with Mikki Moore starting 10 games. 

If it's the playoffs, we're not going to win the title if either goes down for the season.  So planning some sort of contingency plan is sort of pointless. 

Exactly.  This team cannot win a championship (or even come very close), unless they are near 100%.  They had remarkable luck with injuries last year, and they need them again this year.  They really cannot contend with any of their top 7-8 players injured. 

So, instead, you need to plan for the best case scenario with this team.  Build the strongest team you can if they are 100%, and then start worrying about filling in depth behind the top 9 guys after that. 

I disagree with both of you.  If KG, Rondo, at least one of Pierce and Allen, and their role players have the sufficient requirements (i.e. size and role-wise) then they are contenders.  And depending on how Robinson looks as he fully integrates in, a healthy big 3 + Robinson and sufficient role players could be as well.

This team isn't nearly as fragile as they are made out to be because they have redundancy at several levels.  The things they have that can't be replaced are KG's effect (mainly defensive) and Rondo's ability to run the team (again, keep an eye on Robinson).  And they need to have at least one big-scoring wing with 3-point range, as well as the size up-front to run their defensive schemes against the Lakers and Heat.  With those things in place, they can contend even if one or two players get injured in the postseason. 

But for that to work, they need quality depth at their positions of biggest need.  Baby isn't that.  He just isn't, because he's not a long, defensive player.  I appreciate what Baby does give, but he can't be a starter in the playoffs for this team.  O'Neal can.  If he gets healthy (which I don't want to have to depend on, but I can hope for) Perk can.  Sheed could.  Maybe even a Rasho or Kwame Brown could, not sure.  But Baby can't.

Put another way, I'd feel more comfortable with 4 healthy starters + Quisy going against the contenders than I would 4 healthy starters + Baby.  We can hide a lesser wing that at least can defend.  We can't easily hide an undersized/defensively challenged center...not anymore, against the Lakers and Heat of the world.

[drza44]

Right now, the C's have 3 rotation quality big men.  They have 2 rotation quality wings.  You can more than make due with 3 big men in the playoffs, you cannot with only 2 wings.  So I think wing is the bigger need right now.

And looking at the vet minimum free agent options, I think there are much better options as a 4th big man than as a 3rd wing.  Guys like Kurt Thomas, Kwame Brown, Juwan Howard, Craig Smith, Josh Boone, Rasho Nesterovic, or Fabricio Oberto would be better options as 4th big man then any of the vet free agent options would be as 3rd wing. 

But the overarching lesson I got from the way last year played out is that this team absolutely has to have length up front.  That game 7 loss was more about the fact that Baby just isn't long enough to compete with the Lakers frontline than anything else.  When KG and Sheed were in the game, we were ok.  But when they got in foul trouble, it was a problem.  Similarly, this year, in order to beat the Heat we need our big man advantage.

First let me say they need to add another big.  A vet min guy would suffice.

But, I just can't see where you came to conclusion.  There were infinite more reasons why the C's lost.  Primarily not scoring enough points.  When you hold a team on their own court to 83 in game 7 you should win with ease.  We struggled to score and BBD was actually one of our main scorers.  Look to Ray not hitting the side of the barn and KG getting 1 rb and you have your reason for the loss.  JOs added length will more replace Wallace.  You seem be to be shoehorning an opinion by using a misconception that is pretty far off base IMO. 

There are always more than one reason for a loss, but a glaring one was that they were lacking another 7-footer when KG and Sheed were in foul trouble.  No matter who Baby was on, it seemed like a mismatch that forced the defense to collapse more, led to even more Laker FTs and left rebounders open, especially in the late 3rd/4th quarter.

Put another way, we can't legislate many of the problems we had in that loss.  No matter who we add this offseason, they aren't going to be on the court over Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in the 4th quarter nor will they have a direct effect on what KG can and can't physically do.  But the big that we can (and should) add very well could be the one that ends up on the court in crunch-time of game 7.  You say that O'Neal is Sheed's replacement, but the whole tenet of this thread is that Sheed would be back.  That's what I'm hoping for, because I see O'Neal as more Perk replacement than Sheed replacement (and I'll continue to feel that way until I see Perk back and healthy, which I hope is sooner but for now I'd rather we plan that it's later).

[drza44]

I am amazed that everyone thinks JO is going to stay healthy the entire season and Perk is going to be 100% after the all-star break.  We need another big man for insurance and I don't think Erden is that big man right now.  If JO goes down for extended time Erden is the only other guy to step in really.  KG and baby can't split time at the 4 and 5 positions for 48 minutes. Even if Eren does play I don't think Doc will look for more than 10 minutes a night.  I know we really need a wing, but I think I would rather have Sheed come back and back up JO at the 5 and let KG and Baby play the 4. We need the length. 

Moreover, given the current wings that are available there isn't much to trade Sheed's contract for that is willing to come to Boston.  I don't believe Barnes is coming here, nor Josh Howard who probably won't be available at the beginning of the season anyhow.

We should definitely try and get a solid wing as our number 1 priority to back up Pierce and another guard to spell Allen, but we shouldn't throw out the idea of keeping Sheed just for the mere fact that JO is injury prone and I wouldn't want to be stuck with Erden as a starting center for an extended period of time. 

But it really doesn't matter if JO misses 5, 10, or even 15 regular season games.  This team is fully capable of winning 50 games and being a top 4 seed even if that happens.  All that matters is that he's healthy for the playoffs.  And if he and/or Perk aren't, we probably aren't going to win it all anyway, so this whole Sheed business is really meaningless. 

And my point about Perk is that he doesn't necessarily have to be the old Perk for us to win it: he can be the 4th big if BBD, JO, and KG all step up.  And the 4th big probably needs to play fewer than 10 mpg during the playoffs. 

I think this ties in to what I've been trying to rebut (it can get a bit convoluted in thread conversations): if O'Neal is injured for the playoffs (which, let's face it, is probably the highest likelihood among our 5 starters) this team can still compete if Sheed is there to step in for him with Baby (or better still Perk, but won't bank on) as the 3rd big.  That's my big reason for wanting to see Wallace back...neither Baby nor Quisy are ideal 3rd options at their positions, but this team could IMO survive and thrive more with Quisy thrust into the line-up than they could with Baby.  Especially with what they're likely to face in this postseason.

[Chris]

With Daniels returning, I feel a lot more comfortable with this team's wing situation.  However, I still do not have any confidence in Sheed being able to come back and be even what he was last season.  His back is in rough shape, and I can't imagine he is getting any better.

But, what I do feel comfortable with is them holding on to Sheed until the trade deadline.  There are two benefits to that.

First, it allows them to get a much clearer picture of their needs.  They should know by then whether Perk will be able to return this season.  There also could be other injuries that open up a new need. 

Second, Sheed's contract is going to have even more value at that point.  Right now, teams are still trying to sell tickets, and don't want to be selling.  However, but January, a lot of teams are going to have given up on the season, and teams are going to be looking to get under the luxury tax, and save some cash in general.  The C's will be able to choose from a much larger pool of players, and can choose a guy who fits whatever they see as their needs at that time.

[Brendan]

With Daniels returning, I feel a lot more comfortable with this team's wing situation.  However, I still do not have any confidence in Sheed being able to come back and be even what he was last season.  His back is in rough shape, and I can't imagine he is getting any better.

But, what I do feel comfortable with is them holding on to Sheed until the trade deadline.  There are two benefits to that.

First, it allows them to get a much clearer picture of their needs.  They should know by then whether Perk will be able to return this season.  There also could be other injuries that open up a new need. 

Second, Sheed's contract is going to have even more value at that point.  Right now, teams are still trying to sell tickets, and don't want to be selling.  However, but January, a lot of teams are going to have given up on the season, and teams are going to be looking to get under the luxury tax, and save some cash in general.  The C's will be able to choose from a much larger pool of players, and can choose a guy who fits whatever they see as their needs at that time.

I think there is a chance that's true... but there are also years where not much happens. What I do like about waiting is Nate may become a valuable commodity to some other team, while a luxury to us. Or Daniels. In either of those cases, we may have more salary for trading, which means more flexibility in who we can get.

[Jon]

With Daniels returning, I feel a lot more comfortable with this team's wing situation.  However, I still do not have any confidence in Sheed being able to come back and be even what he was last season.  His back is in rough shape, and I can't imagine he is getting any better.

But, what I do feel comfortable with is them holding on to Sheed until the trade deadline.  There are two benefits to that.

First, it allows them to get a much clearer picture of their needs.  They should know by then whether Perk will be able to return this season.  There also could be other injuries that open up a new need. 

Second, Sheed's contract is going to have even more value at that point.  Right now, teams are still trying to sell tickets, and don't want to be selling.  However, but January, a lot of teams are going to have given up on the season, and teams are going to be looking to get under the luxury tax, and save some cash in general.  The C's will be able to choose from a much larger pool of players, and can choose a guy who fits whatever they see as their needs at that time.

A few points:

1) Is that even legal under the CBA?  It's one thing to play that game now when no one can really prove what Rasheed is going to do.  But if Rasheed is home playing with his kids until February, then is traded, and miraculously retires the minute he lands in said destination, will the league call foul?  

2) By waiting, we diminish our trading partners savings, thus making the deal less appealing.  If a team trades a 7 million dollar player for Sheed now, they can conceivably save 7 million.  If they wait until the deadline when more than 1/2 the season is past, they will be lucky to save 3 million, and that's only if buying him out, etc., doesn't cost anything to them.  

[Kane3387]

With Daniels returning, I feel a lot more comfortable with this team's wing situation.  However, I still do not have any confidence in Sheed being able to come back and be even what he was last season.  His back is in rough shape, and I can't imagine he is getting any better.

But, what I do feel comfortable with is them holding on to Sheed until the trade deadline.  There are two benefits to that.

First, it allows them to get a much clearer picture of their needs.  They should know by then whether Perk will be able to return this season.  There also could be other injuries that open up a new need. 

Second, Sheed's contract is going to have even more value at that point.  Right now, teams are still trying to sell tickets, and don't want to be selling.  However, but January, a lot of teams are going to have given up on the season, and teams are going to be looking to get under the luxury tax, and save some cash in general.  The C's will be able to choose from a much larger pool of players, and can choose a guy who fits whatever they see as their needs at that time.

A few points:

1) Is that even legal under the CBA?  It's one thing to play that game now when no one can really prove what Rasheed is going to do.  But if Rasheed is home playing with his kids until February, then is traded, and miraculously retires the minute he lands in said destination, will the league call foul?  

2) By waiting, we diminish our trading partners savings, thus making the deal less appealing.  If a team trades a 7 million dollar player for Sheed now, they can conceivably save 7 million.  If they wait until the deadline when more than 1/2 the season is past, they will be lucky to save 3 million, and that's only if buying him out, etc., doesn't cost anything to them.  

Jon,

A team would save money on the years after this year assuming we land a guy with a multi-year contract...

[Jon]

With Daniels returning, I feel a lot more comfortable with this team's wing situation.  However, I still do not have any confidence in Sheed being able to come back and be even what he was last season.  His back is in rough shape, and I can't imagine he is getting any better.

But, what I do feel comfortable with is them holding on to Sheed until the trade deadline.  There are two benefits to that.

First, it allows them to get a much clearer picture of their needs.  They should know by then whether Perk will be able to return this season.  There also could be other injuries that open up a new need. 

Second, Sheed's contract is going to have even more value at that point.  Right now, teams are still trying to sell tickets, and don't want to be selling.  However, but January, a lot of teams are going to have given up on the season, and teams are going to be looking to get under the luxury tax, and save some cash in general.  The C's will be able to choose from a much larger pool of players, and can choose a guy who fits whatever they see as their needs at that time.

A few points:

1) Is that even legal under the CBA?  It's one thing to play that game now when no one can really prove what Rasheed is going to do.  But if Rasheed is home playing with his kids until February, then is traded, and miraculously retires the minute he lands in said destination, will the league call foul?  

2) By waiting, we diminish our trading partners savings, thus making the deal less appealing.  If a team trades a 7 million dollar player for Sheed now, they can conceivably save 7 million.  If they wait until the deadline when more than 1/2 the season is past, they will be lucky to save 3 million, and that's only if buying him out, etc., doesn't cost anything to them.  

Jon,

A team would save money on the years after this year assuming we land a guy with a multi-year contract...

True.  But they'd still save 4 million or so less if it was at the deadline. 

And no one has still been able to answer my question about whether we can even let him sit at home for 7 months "unretired" and then trade him and have him magically decide to "retire" the minute he arrives to his new team. 

I'm getting the feeling more and more that this is like the Simmons' Paul proposal: it sounds good, but can't actually happen under the CBA. 

[Chris]

1) Is that even legal under the CBA?  It's one thing to play that game now when no one can really prove what Rasheed is going to do.  But if Rasheed is home playing with his kids until February, then is traded, and miraculously retires the minute he lands in said destination, will the league call foul?

 

Absolutely.  The league has no rules against it, and shadier things are done all the time.  If teams are allowed to sign and trade guys who have been out of the league for years, they are not going to have a problem with the C's actually paying Sheed to sit on his butt for a few months, in order to trade him. 

2) By waiting, we diminish our trading partners savings, thus making the deal less appealing.  If a team trades a 7 million dollar player for Sheed now, they can conceivably save 7 million.  If they wait until the deadline when more than 1/2 the season is past, they will be lucky to save 3 million, and that's only if buying him out, etc., doesn't cost anything to them.  

This is true...however, it doesn't really matter.  Right now, teams are not looking to save every penny.  They can't, because it will kill their ticket sales.  They need to at least give the season a try before they start selling off players for nothing.  However, at the trade deadline, the fans are much more willing to buy into a team selling off players, particularly if they are in a lottery race. 

Not to mention, the luxury tax is based on the team salary at the end of the season.  So if a team is over the threshold through february, but then trades to get under it by taking on Sheed's contract, its as if they were under the threshold all season long.  So it is very appealing.