Author Topic: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five  (Read 13571 times)

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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #60 on: October 04, 2018, 12:34:55 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I am not a fan of basic +/- stats as I think they have way too much noise in them as they are a factor of who the player was playing with. A ton of times I have seen Smart have horrible +/- in games but be a dominating, winning force in a game. On the other hand, I have seen Horford with great +/- stats and play horrible.

I thought Baynes played Embiid as well as anyone can in last year's playoffs. Embiid didn't shoot as well as he did in the regular season and didn't score as much per shot as the regular season. He only scored as much per game as he did in the regular season. He was basically held in check.

Is that all because of Baynes? Of course not. But Baynes did play Embiid as good as most good to great defensive players in the league could. That +/- number is more a testament of Embiid's resiliency to produce even when being defended well than it is a factor of how well Baynes played against Embiid.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #61 on: October 04, 2018, 12:43:36 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #62 on: October 04, 2018, 01:17:46 AM »

Offline playdream

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.
We have much different impression lol
They put Baynes on Embiid and dare him to take every shot under random flash/double noise in the post and competently took out the 3 by stick like glue because none of them can really drive, Embiid took lots of shots with low efficiency and wore down while their pride shooters became a competently disaster
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 01:25:27 AM by playdream »

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #63 on: October 04, 2018, 01:28:44 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.
We have much different impression lol
They put Baynes on Embiid and dare him to take every shot under random flash/double noise in the post and competently took out the 3 , Embiid took lots of shots with low efficiency and wore down while their pride shooters became a competently disaster
I don't remember it that way at all. I remember the C's packing it in to stop Simmons drives and doing the double team underneath on Embiid. The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes with late closeouts. They dared Philly to beat them from three and Philly couldn't do it.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #64 on: October 04, 2018, 02:02:51 AM »

Offline playdream

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.
We have much different impression lol
They put Baynes on Embiid and dare him to take every shot under random flash/double noise in the post and competently took out the 3 , Embiid took lots of shots with low efficiency and wore down while their pride shooters became a competently disaster
I don't remember it that way at all. I remember the C's packing it in to stop Simmons drives and doing the double team underneath on Embiid. The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes with late closeouts. They dared Philly to beat them from three and Philly couldn't do it.
No lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydy-pzs5uCA&app=desktop
Even in this video you can see the intention to stick to the outside shooters and let Embiid going to work, their shooter were never open

The very first play Smart guarded reddick way outside the 3 arc, how does that looks "leaving everyone else open for threes" is beyond me

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #65 on: October 04, 2018, 03:47:43 AM »

Offline playdream

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.
We have much different impression lol
They put Baynes on Embiid and dare him to take every shot under random flash/double noise in the post and competently took out the 3 , Embiid took lots of shots with low efficiency and wore down while their pride shooters became a competently disaster
I don't remember it that way at all. I remember the C's packing it in to stop Simmons drives and doing the double team underneath on Embiid. The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes with late closeouts. They dared Philly to beat them from three and Philly couldn't do it.
No lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydy-pzs5uCA&app=desktop
Even in this video you can see the intention to stick to the outside shooters and let Embiid going to work, their shooter were never open

The very first play Smart guarded reddick way outside the 3 arc, how does that looks "leaving everyone else open for threes" is beyond me
From an article from philly.com of all places:

http://www2.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/sixers-celtics-76ers-nba-playoffs-score-recap-offseason-ben-simmons-joel-embiid-20180509.html

Quote
It starts with Simmons, who made things look easy enough throughout the regular season that it was fair to wonder whether he would fool himself into thinking that's how easy they are. More than anything, his performance this postseason should lay to rest any such notion. This was somewhat true in the first series, but in the second there was no doubt. The Celtics spent all five games walling him off in the transition game, and packing the lane in the half-court. They dared him to shoot, and he didn't, and the result was one of the game's most electric rookies looking too much like a bystander in too many possessions.

So even Philly reporters see it my way.
No one is arguing we let Simmons open to shoot but you are talking about the shooters?
"the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters"
"The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes"



Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #66 on: October 04, 2018, 06:29:05 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better.
Again that's not how numbers works, as someone showed the video you can see Baynes physically and mentally wear Embiid down when they matched up, so others were having a much easier time
I guess people see different things when they watch the same thing but i'm glad we have Brad Stevens as our coach
come on, that video showed Embiid backing Baynes down and getting off any shot he wanted at any time.  That was a C's highlight so they showed Embiid's misses, but he took Baynes off the dribble constantly because, as I said, Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard someone like Embiid.  This really shouldn't be a discussion, it only is, because I have a contrarian reputation and the same handful of people follow me around and make more out of my posts then are necessary.
So who do you propose guard Embiid?
I was fine with how last year went.  Probably would have played Baynes a bit less overall, but was generally fine.  The series, though, showed that Baynes really can't guard Embiid and against Philly they should go with the smaller starting 5, especially with Hayward and Irving being able to carry the offensive load so Horford doesn't need to be as fresh and can bang a bit more with Embiid.
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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #67 on: October 04, 2018, 06:53:22 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Probably would have played Baynes a bit less overall, but was generally fine.  The series, though, showed that Baynes really can't guard Embiid and against Philly they should go with the smaller starting 5, especially with Hayward and Irving being able to carry the offensive load so Horford doesn't need to be as fresh and can bang a bit more with Embiid.


We won the series 4-1 that is pretty dominant.  I think your making a mountain into a molehill.   As one can see below Embiid only scored 23 points on 42 post ups.    Embiid is going to get his but he was far less successful against us than others.

Quote
Simmons can still get the Sixers into their offense, but it’s frequently felt like their best options are players not named Simmons and Embiid. When Sixers fans are yelling on Twitter for T.J. McConnell to be in the game over the past two no. 1 picks, it’s a problem. When you think maybe a flare screen set for Belinelli is a better option than an Embiid post-up, it’s a problem.

Embiid has logged 42 post-ups against the Celtics and the Sixers have scored only 23 points on those plays, or a poor 0.55 points per possession, per Synergy.

The single coverage has baited Embiid into low-percentage hook shots 8 feet from the rim and contested pull-ups, and it’s taken away passing lanes for cuts. Stevens made a smart call deciding to double Embiid only when it was late in the clock:

Embiid has improved significantly in the post since he was a raw freshman at Kansas. But he has been challenged against two stellar defenders in Horford and Baynes. To make the leap from good to great as a post scorer, Embiid must become a player who demands a double-team by expanding his moves and mastering his existing ones.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/7/17326080/brad-stevens-celtics-sixers

Our memories can be pretty faulty.   Another things didn't Baynes]s threes make Embiid have to guard on the outside thereby negating a lot of his defensive presence?  He shot close to 44% from down town this series.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2968439/year/2018/aron-baynes


Sp rather than change his players, CBS used them in a way that negated some Embiid's considerable talent.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2018, 07:00:41 AM by Celtics4ever »

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #68 on: October 04, 2018, 08:52:11 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Probably would have played Baynes a bit less overall, but was generally fine.  The series, though, showed that Baynes really can't guard Embiid and against Philly they should go with the smaller starting 5, especially with Hayward and Irving being able to carry the offensive load so Horford doesn't need to be as fresh and can bang a bit more with Embiid.


We won the series 4-1 that is pretty dominant.  I think your making a mountain into a molehill.   As one can see below Embiid only scored 23 points on 42 post ups.    Embiid is going to get his but he was far less successful against us than others.

Quote
Simmons can still get the Sixers into their offense, but it’s frequently felt like their best options are players not named Simmons and Embiid. When Sixers fans are yelling on Twitter for T.J. McConnell to be in the game over the past two no. 1 picks, it’s a problem. When you think maybe a flare screen set for Belinelli is a better option than an Embiid post-up, it’s a problem.

Embiid has logged 42 post-ups against the Celtics and the Sixers have scored only 23 points on those plays, or a poor 0.55 points per possession, per Synergy.

The single coverage has baited Embiid into low-percentage hook shots 8 feet from the rim and contested pull-ups, and it’s taken away passing lanes for cuts. Stevens made a smart call deciding to double Embiid only when it was late in the clock:

Embiid has improved significantly in the post since he was a raw freshman at Kansas. But he has been challenged against two stellar defenders in Horford and Baynes. To make the leap from good to great as a post scorer, Embiid must become a player who demands a double-team by expanding his moves and mastering his existing ones.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/5/7/17326080/brad-stevens-celtics-sixers

Our memories can be pretty faulty.   Another things didn't Baynes]s threes make Embiid have to guard on the outside thereby negating a lot of his defensive presence?  He shot close to 44% from down town this series.

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2968439/year/2018/aron-baynes


Sp rather than change his players, CBS used them in a way that negated some Embiid's considerable talent.
Boston had no choice, but I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes, caused Boston to double team Embiid a lot more, which not surprisingly led to Philly playing better overall when Baynes was in the game.  Last year, Boston couldn't just let Horford ride on Embiid for the whole series, because Boston absolutely needed Horford on offense and the other option to play was Morris, who is a player of similar caliber to Baynes.  That won't be the case this year.  Irving and Hayward significantly increase the overall offense, allowing Horford to play a lot more in a support role.  Thus he won't need to be as fresh offensively and can work more defensively.  In addition, Hayward or Tatum is the other option instead of Baynes, and they are both significant upgrades. 

Now opening night I wouldn't be surprised to see Baynes out there, especially if Hayward is still looking hesitant and tentative (and game 2 being Toronto which should be a Baynes game, Boston might want to keep that consistency early on), but should those teams meet in the playoffs again, I would absolutely expect to see very limited minutes from Baynes. 
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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #69 on: October 04, 2018, 06:52:11 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes

This is true only in your mind.  Embiid is very good and clearly better than Baynes but CBS liked what Baynes did and he helped us win the series, no matter how you twist it....

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #70 on: October 04, 2018, 07:51:00 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes

This is true only in your mind.  Embiid is very good and clearly better than Baynes but CBS liked what Baynes did and he helped us win the series, no matter how you twist it....
Yeah, that is a complete rewriting of history. Embiid clearly got upset with Baynes’ physicality at stages, particularly near the end of the series
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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #71 on: October 04, 2018, 09:45:46 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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What I remember of the defense against Embiid last year was that the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters and when Embiid got the ball low the Celtics flashed or committed the double team almost every single time. They dared Philly to beat them from three without Embiid taking a shot. Baynes role was to hold off Embiid until the double came and in that part of the defensive scheme, he did his job.
We have much different impression lol
They put Baynes on Embiid and dare him to take every shot under random flash/double noise in the post and competently took out the 3 , Embiid took lots of shots with low efficiency and wore down while their pride shooters became a competently disaster
I don't remember it that way at all. I remember the C's packing it in to stop Simmons drives and doing the double team underneath on Embiid. The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes with late closeouts. They dared Philly to beat them from three and Philly couldn't do it.
No lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydy-pzs5uCA&app=desktop
Even in this video you can see the intention to stick to the outside shooters and let Embiid going to work, their shooter were never open

The very first play Smart guarded reddick way outside the 3 arc, how does that looks "leaving everyone else open for threes" is beyond me
From an article from philly.com of all places:

http://www2.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/sixers-celtics-76ers-nba-playoffs-score-recap-offseason-ben-simmons-joel-embiid-20180509.html

Quote
It starts with Simmons, who made things look easy enough throughout the regular season that it was fair to wonder whether he would fool himself into thinking that's how easy they are. More than anything, his performance this postseason should lay to rest any such notion. This was somewhat true in the first series, but in the second there was no doubt. The Celtics spent all five games walling him off in the transition game, and packing the lane in the half-court. They dared him to shoot, and he didn't, and the result was one of the game's most electric rookies looking too much like a bystander in too many possessions.

So even Philly reporters see it my way.
No one is arguing we let Simmons open to shoot but you are talking about the shooters?
"the Celtics backed off Philly's outside shooters"
"The Celtics were leaving everyone else: Simmons, Covington, Saric, Reddick,  McConnell, etc open for threes"

Yeah, that's obviously not how it went. The plan was to let Embiid get his, sag off Simmons, and stick to all of heir shooters which included switching on off-action screens.

After game 1 here is the recap:
The  Celtics rarely sent double team help toward Aron Baynes in the post, which left him one-on-one with Embiid. Not surprisingly, Embiid went for 31 points on 12-for-21 shooting.

The reason for leaving Baynes all by his lonesome was that the Sixers are just too freaking good on the perimeter. The issue is that Embiid is good enough to negate that strategy all by himself. Stevens is willing to live with that, to a point.

“When we’re up 12,” Stevens said. “You’re just going to have to balance that as the series goes on. He can get 31 in isolation or whatever. If you’re doubling him are you giving up 33 because you’re leaving shooter? It’s a thin line. It’s what makes it really hard to play these guys because they’re so talented.”

The Sixers shot 30.9% from 3's (JJ 34%, Marco 31%, Ersan 21%, and Covington 25%), which is obviously not happening if they're leaving them open for 3's.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #72 on: October 05, 2018, 08:52:33 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes

This is true only in your mind.  Embiid is very good and clearly better than Baynes but CBS liked what Baynes did and he helped us win the series, no matter how you twist it....
Yeah, that is a complete rewriting of history. Embiid clearly got upset with Baynes’ physicality at stages, particularly near the end of the series
Sure he got upset that the fouls were harder then Embiid felt they needed to be.  But they were still fouls and they still put Embiid on the line.  If Baynes wasn't getting beat all the time, maybe he wouldn't have needed to foul Embiid at all.
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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #73 on: October 05, 2018, 09:08:41 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes

This is true only in your mind.  Embiid is very good and clearly better than Baynes but CBS liked what Baynes did and he helped us win the series, no matter how you twist it....
Yeah, that is a complete rewriting of history. Embiid clearly got upset with Baynes’ physicality at stages, particularly near the end of the series
Sure he got upset that the fouls were harder then Embiid felt they needed to be.  But they were still fouls and they still put Embiid on the line.  If Baynes wasn't getting beat all the time, maybe he wouldn't have needed to foul Embiid at all.

No, Embiid got upset because Baynes held him to an atrocious 1.12 points per shot after he put up 1.4 points per shot in the regular season. Unlike your plus minus metrics, this stat actually measures Baynes effect on Embiid, not Embiids effect on the Sixers / Celtics. It’s really not that difficult.
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Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #74 on: October 05, 2018, 09:30:35 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't think it is a coincidence that Embiid being able to do whatever he wanted against Baynes

This is true only in your mind.  Embiid is very good and clearly better than Baynes but CBS liked what Baynes did and he helped us win the series, no matter how you twist it....
Yeah, that is a complete rewriting of history. Embiid clearly got upset with Baynes’ physicality at stages, particularly near the end of the series
Sure he got upset that the fouls were harder then Embiid felt they needed to be.  But they were still fouls and they still put Embiid on the line.  If Baynes wasn't getting beat all the time, maybe he wouldn't have needed to foul Embiid at all.

No, Embiid got upset because Baynes held him to an atrocious 1.12 points per shot after he put up 1.4 points per shot in the regular season. Unlike your plus minus metrics, this stat actually measures Baynes effect on Embiid, not Embiids effect on the Sixers / Celtics. It’s really not that difficult.
Did you actually analyze Embiid's shots when being guarded by Baynes?  Like watch video of every possession to see when Baynes was on Embiid and when Embiid was being guarded by others.  Did that analysis include end of the shot clock type shots verse normal offense shots both with and without Baynes?  Did that analysis account for double teams and if so how did it account for double teams?  Just because Embiid had 1.12 points per shot, doesn't mean Baynes held him to that, especially since Embiid was in the game a lot without Baynes even being on the floor.  Of course, as indicated Embiid and the Sixers were a lot more effective on the scoreboard (the only thing that really matters) when Baynes was in the game then when Baynes wasn't in the game. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner