Author Topic: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five  (Read 13571 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #45 on: October 03, 2018, 04:01:23 PM »

Offline Bobshot

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2055
  • Tommy Points: 141
I'd like to see Stevens get more minutes out of that starting 5 pre-season instead of tinkering with the lineup--which changes with matchups anyways. 15 minutes isn't enough, especially with two guys coming back from injuries. Hayward and Irving are not 100% condition-wise , and they need the work.

I see no need to play all these secondary guys right now. The 15 are pretty much set. One or two might wind up in the D league. Kids like Williams. But certainly 10-12 guys are set in the rotation.

The priority right now should be to get that starting rotation going, so they can get off to a fast start in the season. The focus should be on the top 10. Get them sharp and ready.

I see they're back to about 30 3s, which is about right. Now they should focus on who should be taking them. Some of those guys should not be shooting 3s. If you can't shoot 33%, don't shoot them. 2s are better.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #46 on: October 03, 2018, 04:42:20 PM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34680
  • Tommy Points: 1603
Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #47 on: October 03, 2018, 05:14:00 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20105
  • Tommy Points: 1331
Forgive me, if I trust CBS more than the bloggers here.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #48 on: October 03, 2018, 05:33:13 PM »

Offline Eddie20

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8497
  • Tommy Points: 975
Forgive me, if I trust CBS more than the bloggers here.

Basically what Moranis is insinuating is that Stevens made a colossal mistake by mirroring Baynes' minutes with Embiid's. It's a miracle we won in 5 with such a tactful blunder. 

In the video below can Moranis kindly point out Baynes' inability to cover Embiid?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydy-pzs5uCA

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #49 on: October 03, 2018, 05:45:46 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20105
  • Tommy Points: 1331
Quote
Basically what Moranis is insinuating is that Stevens made a colossal mistake by mirroring Baynes' minutes with Embiid's. It's a miracle we won in 5 with such a tactful blunder. 

We won that series pretty easily, much easier than the Bucks series.  4 and 1 was the record, no.  I am sticking with CBS.     

Embiid is a big talent who is going to his to some degree, regardless.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #50 on: October 03, 2018, 05:58:43 PM »

Offline AshyLarry

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 679
  • Tommy Points: 177
  • Ashy To Classy, baby.
I'm stuck somewhere between wanting Hayward to come off the bench while he gets his legs under him (no horrible bad joke intended I swear) and wanting him to play as many minutes as possible.

But above all else, in Brad I trust.
My pic is now, and will be Fab Melo until he posts his first official NBA dbl-dbl. This may be permanent.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2018, 08:56:02 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4673
  • Tommy Points: 1043
I'd like to see Stevens get more minutes out of that starting 5 pre-season instead of tinkering with the lineup--which changes with matchups anyways. 15 minutes isn't enough, especially with two guys coming back from injuries. Hayward and Irving are not 100% condition-wise , and they need the work.

I see no need to play all these secondary guys right now. The 15 are pretty much set. One or two might wind up in the D league. Kids like Williams. But certainly 10-12 guys are set in the rotation.

The priority right now should be to get that starting rotation going, so they can get off to a fast start in the season. The focus should be on the top 10. Get them sharp and ready.

I see they're back to about 30 3s, which is about right. Now they should focus on who should be taking them. Some of those guys should not be shooting 3s. If you can't shoot 33%, don't shoot them. 2s are better.

I think he didn’t play them in the second half because they looked like they didn’t care at all.

No point in playing them if they are just going through the motions out there.

I wouldn’t be too worried about the starters, we know who they are and they will get plenty of reps together. It may take some games for Hayward to shake off the rust and get his conditioning up to NBA standards, but once he does they will gel nicely.
CELTICS 2024

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #52 on: October 03, 2018, 09:53:21 PM »

Offline jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13756
  • Tommy Points: 2061
  • Sometimes there's no sane reason for optimism
I'm stuck somewhere between wanting Hayward to come off the bench while he gets his legs under him (no horrible bad joke intended I swear) and wanting him to play as many minutes as possible.

But above all else, in Brad I trust.

Put me in the 'Hayward as 6th man' group. I don't necessarily want Baynes starting every game as I think a case can be made for Smart or even Rozier in some cases, but Hayward looks to have a much longer way back than I think all of us had hoped.

Tatum and Brown are far too talented to be playing in an injured Hayward's shadow right now. Hayward could be the Horford of the 2nd unit, while also being a primary scorer. If he continues to get better, then he can be eased back with the starters, but Tatum and Brown are our future and I don't want them taking a back seat to anybody except maybe Irving at this point in their careers.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #53 on: October 03, 2018, 10:15:37 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48121
  • Tommy Points: 8800
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
I'm stuck somewhere between wanting Hayward to come off the bench while he gets his legs under him (no horrible bad joke intended I swear) and wanting him to play as many minutes as possible.

But above all else, in Brad I trust.

Put me in the 'Hayward as 6th man' group. I don't necessarily want Baynes starting every game as I think a case can be made for Smart or even Rozier in some cases, but Hayward looks to have a much longer way back than I think all of us had hoped.

Tatum and Brown are far too talented to be playing in an injured Hayward's shadow right now. Hayward could be the Horford of the 2nd unit, while also being a primary scorer. If he continues to get better, then he can be eased back with the starters, but Tatum and Brown are our future and I don't want them taking a back seat to anybody except maybe Irving at this point in their careers.
I am of the opinion that Hayward needs as much time possible playing with Horford, Brown, Tatum and Irving as possible since it's that quintet that will be leading the Celtics to post season glory. If it causes the Celtics  to lose a bunch of extra games early in the season, who cares. This team is built for the playoffs and that is what matters most, getting the starters time together, getting everyone comfortable in their roles and getting the rotations down. Gotta think long term, not short term to earn some extra wins.

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #54 on: October 03, 2018, 10:39:19 PM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34680
  • Tommy Points: 1603
Forgive me, if I trust CBS more than the bloggers here.

Basically what Moranis is insinuating is that Stevens made a colossal mistake by mirroring Baynes' minutes with Embiid's. It's a miracle we won in 5 with such a tactful blunder. 

In the video below can Moranis kindly point out Baynes' inability to cover Embiid?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydy-pzs5uCA
I didn't insinuate that at all and last year Hayward wasn't on the team.  If the choice was between Morris or Baynes, Baynes is the better choice.  If the choice was Baynes or Hayward/Tatum, that is an entirely different discussion.  But that series absolutely confirmed that Baynes couldn't effectively guard Embiid, which is all I said.
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #55 on: October 03, 2018, 10:44:20 PM »

Offline playdream

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1665
  • Tommy Points: 88
I'm stuck somewhere between wanting Hayward to come off the bench while he gets his legs under him (no horrible bad joke intended I swear) and wanting him to play as many minutes as possible.

But above all else, in Brad I trust.

Put me in the 'Hayward as 6th man' group. I don't necessarily want Baynes starting every game as I think a case can be made for Smart or even Rozier in some cases, but Hayward looks to have a much longer way back than I think all of us had hoped.

Tatum and Brown are far too talented to be playing in an injured Hayward's shadow right now. Hayward could be the Horford of the 2nd unit, while also being a primary scorer. If he continues to get better, then he can be eased back with the starters, but Tatum and Brown are our future and I don't want them taking a back seat to anybody except maybe Irving at this point in their careers.
I am of the opinion that Hayward needs as much time possible playing with Horford, Brown, Tatum and Irving as possible since it's that quintet that will be leading the Celtics to post season glory. If it causes the Celtics  to lose a bunch of extra games early in the season, who cares. This team is built for the playoffs and that is what matters most, getting the starters time together, getting everyone comfortable in their roles and getting the rotations down. Gotta think long term, not short term to earn some extra wins.
Basically this, patience and no short-sighted is the path to success

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #56 on: October 03, 2018, 10:50:30 PM »

Offline playdream

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1665
  • Tommy Points: 88
Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better.
Again that's not how numbers works, as someone showed the video you can see Baynes physically and mentally wear Embiid down when they matched up, so others were having a much easier time
I guess people see different things when they watch the same thing but i'm glad we have Brad Stevens as our coach

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #57 on: October 03, 2018, 10:57:57 PM »

Online Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 34680
  • Tommy Points: 1603
Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better.
Again that's not how numbers works, as someone showed the video you can see Baynes physically and mentally wear Embiid down when they matched up, so others were having a much easier time
I guess people see different things when they watch the same thing but i'm glad we have Brad Stevens as our coach
come on, that video showed Embiid backing Baynes down and getting off any shot he wanted at any time.  That was a C's highlight so they showed Embiid's misses, but he took Baynes off the dribble constantly because, as I said, Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard someone like Embiid.  This really shouldn't be a discussion, it only is, because I have a contrarian reputation and the same handful of people follow me around and make more out of my posts then are necessary. 
2025 Historical Draft - Cleveland Cavaliers - 1st pick

Starters - Luka, JB, Lebron, Wemby, Shaq
Rotation - D. Daniels, Mitchell, G. Wallace, Melo, Noah
Deep Bench - Korver, Turner

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #58 on: October 03, 2018, 11:06:18 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9020
  • Tommy Points: 583
Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better.
Again that's not how numbers works, as someone showed the video you can see Baynes physically and mentally wear Embiid down when they matched up, so others were having a much easier time
I guess people see different things when they watch the same thing but i'm glad we have Brad Stevens as our coach
come on, that video showed Embiid backing Baynes down and getting off any shot he wanted at any time.  That was a C's highlight so they showed Embiid's misses, but he took Baynes off the dribble constantly because, as I said, Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard someone like Embiid.  This really shouldn't be a discussion, it only is, because I have a contrarian reputation and the same handful of people follow me around and make more out of my posts then are necessary.
So who do you propose guard Embiid? 

Re: Baynes needs to be part of the starting five
« Reply #59 on: October 03, 2018, 11:21:56 PM »

Offline playdream

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1665
  • Tommy Points: 88
Against Toronto, sure absolutely.  Baynes makes a lot of sense against that lineup going against Jonas while Horford takes on Ibaka.  Against Philadelphia, nope, Baynes has no real shot at guarding Embiid over the long haul and Tatum would do fine on Saric. 

So, sure a few matchups (and it is a few) it makes sense to start Baynes, but against most teams, Tatum will be the better start and better fit.

Someone didn't watch round 2 of the playoffs.
23/14/3.6, man Embiid sure was shut down.

How about these +- numbers.

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Embiid btw had the best +- of the Sixers starters (Redick was near him, no one else was close). 

No matter how you slice it, Boston won in spite of Baynes, not because of Baynes.  He was awful in that series because he can't guard Embiid.  Not at all.

Who cares about +/- team metrics when Embiid shot a measley 44% from the floor in the series and put up (gasp!) 1.12 points per shot and lost 4 of 5 games to half the Celtics team.

I mean, 1.12 points per shot from a center?? That's worse than Kyrie!  Given how much you rely on points per shot to grade good players, it looks like this debate is a wrap, eh?
+- absolutely matters when discussing a players value to the team.  There is absolutely no question at all that Boston was significantly better in that series when Baynes was on the bench.  Embiid was also Philly's best player in that series.

Your plus/minus analysis is overly simplistic.   I just went back and looked at the plus-minus logs for that series.

In that series, Baynes was on the floor only when Embiid was always also on the floor.   But when Baynes was off the court, Embiid was sometimes on and sometimes off.

This means that the Celtics w/o Baynes were against a PHI w/o Embiid for a huge share of those minutes.

Your analysis probably says less about Baynes effectiveness than it does about Embiid's overall impact on Philly's effectiveness.

EDIT:  I see smokeablount already made the same point.
Ah, but what was Embiid in that series and those games.

So again here is Baynes

Game 1 - Baynes -1 in 29 minutes, Boston +17 in the other 19 minutes
Game 2 - Baynes -16 in 21 minutes, Boston +21 in the other 27 minutes
Game 3 - Baynes -8 in 23 minutes, Boston +11 in the other 25 minutes
Game 4 - Baynes -9 in 19 minutes, Boston -2 in the other 29 minutes
Game 5 - Baynes -6 in 25 minutes, Boston +8 in the other 23 minutes

Here are Embiid's +- in the series

Game 1 -6, 35 minutes
Game 2 -8, 37 minutes
Game 3 +6, 41 minutes
Game 4 +22, 35 minutes
Game 5 +3, 39 minutes

So if you are correct that Baynes only played when Embiid was in the game, this is the breakdown of Embiid's +- with and without Baynes.

Game 1 - against Baynes +1, 29 minutes - against others -7, 6 minutes
Game 2 - against Baynes +16, 21 minutes - against others -24, 16 minutes
Game 3 - against Baynes +8, 23 minutes - against others -2, 18 minutes
Game 4 - against Baynes +9, 19 minutes - against others +13, 16 minutes
Game 5 - against Baynes +6, 25 minutes - against others -3, 14 minutes

Only in the game 4 Sixers win was Baynes more effective against Embiid then when others were in the game. 

I watched the series.  When Baynes was playing the Sixers as a team were far more effective then when Baynes was on the bench.  The stats bear out what you could actually see watching the game.  There is a specific type of player that Baynes is effective against, Embiid is not that type of player.  Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard the more athletic and mobile players like Embiid.  He can't effectively cover someone out at the 3 point line for any period of time.  Playing a center like Drummond and Baynes should be out there, but not Embiid.  Horford is much more effective against Embiid because he can stay with him a lot better.
Again that's not how numbers works, as someone showed the video you can see Baynes physically and mentally wear Embiid down when they matched up, so others were having a much easier time
I guess people see different things when they watch the same thing but i'm glad we have Brad Stevens as our coach
come on, that video showed Embiid backing Baynes down and getting off any shot he wanted at any time.  That was a C's highlight so they showed Embiid's misses, but he took Baynes off the dribble constantly because, as I said, Baynes doesn't have the speed or quickness to guard someone like Embiid.  This really shouldn't be a discussion, it only is, because I have a contrarian reputation and the same handful of people follow me around and make more out of my posts then are necessary.
With Baynes it will be "doesn't have the speed or quickness", that is true, but with others it will be "BBQ Chikens" because they got zero chance