Is Horford a Hall of Fame lock?

[Eddie20]

Let's not forget that the HOF is all basketball (international, collegiate, etc.) and not simply NBA performance. That said, when you combine Horford's collegiate succcess (back-to-back national titles) and his NBA accomplishments (5x All-Star) isn't it safe to say that he's already basically assured of enshrinement? This will only be solidified the next few seasons, even with the anticipated regression. Considering that Laettner is in the HOF primarily on his accomplishments at Duke, my opinion is that Horford's overall body of work (including longevity) is superior.

[greece66]

Bball ref gives him a 10.8%

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

[Who]

No -- but he is getting closer all the time.

Being an integral member of a few championships here in Boston would get him in.

[mmmmm]

For the less-well-known National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame in Kansas City, he's probably a lock.

For the "Basketball Hall of Fame" in Springfield, he's probably going to end up in there (based on his combined college and NBA overall) but I wouldn't call it a lock yet.

If he wins a title with this team, then he'll probably become a lock.

[Surferdad]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

[greece66]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Yeah.  Making All NBA teams, All Star teams, and winning awards matter far more than titles do for making the HOF.  Titles are nice, but they don't really predict the HOF all that well, other than the simple reality that the better players tend to lead title winning teams (and the better players have the awards anyway).  Now if Horford was the unquestioned leader of a title winning team, that would hold some merit, but if he was the unquestioned leader he would also be getting MVP votes, DPOY votes, etc. so he would be getting the awards anyway.

Now Horford winning two collegiate titles definitely boosts his case since the HOF includes that, but right now I don't think he has done enough in the NBA to get there yet. 

[moiso]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

[johnnygreen]

If he puts up similar numbers over the next 4-5 years, then he is most likely in. He has been a model of consistency since day one. There is not one thing the guy can’t do, and has even adjusted his game to become a highly effective 3 point shooter over the last 3 seasons.

I understand the idea of also including a players college career. However, Laettner was on a totally different level in college. He is arguably one of the top 10 men’s college basketball players of all time. At the time (1988-1992), a team could play a maximum of 6 games in each NCAA tournament. Laettner played in 23 NCAA tournament games. As good as Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley were, Laettner was the team’s best player. He was so well accomplished and thought of, that he was also picked for the 1992 dream team over Shaq for the lone college player.

[Surferdad]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team. 

[Eddie20]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

And yet there's Mo Cheeks, who was the 4th or 5th best player on those good Sixers teams, and he just got into the HOF with career averages of 12.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.7 APG, and 4 career all-star appearances.

[fairweatherfan]

Not remotely a lock but he's piecing a case together. Needs more playoff success since All-NBA teams are very unlikely and even All-Star appearances are probably getting unlikely with all the young talent around him.

One thing he has going for him beyond the college rings is that he's VERY well regarded by other players, which would boost his chances with the Veteran's Committee. But I think he needs a ring to have a solid case, and even then he wouldn't be a lock.

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

And yet there's Mo Cheeks, who was the 4th or 5th best player on those good Sixers teams, and he just got into the HOF with career averages of 12.1 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 6.7 APG, and 4 career all-star appearances.

Sure, 25 years after he was done playing (and thus barely got in).  Mo also has 5 All NBA Defensive teams.  Mo is 5th all time steals and 13th all time in assists, so has some stats going for him.