Is Horford a Hall of Fame lock?

[blink]

If Al makes a couple more all star games and manages to win at least one title with the C's I feel he probably makes it. 

If not, I dunno.  I mean as much as I like Al on our team, if he is all around good at everything but not top 5 nba at anything ever and isn't a major contributor to winning a title how can you say he is better than a lot of multi year all stars that don't get in?

Mo Cheeks is a good comparison, because he was a great team player for those philly teams.  But that team made the finals 3 times and won a ring.  If they don't win a ring, does Cheeks get in the hall of fame?  Doubtful right?

[GreenShooter]

If Al makes a couple more all star games and manages to win at least one title with the C's I feel he probably makes it. 

If not, I dunno.  I mean as much as I like Al on our team, if he is all around good at everything but not top 5 nba at anything ever and isn't a major contributor to winning a title how can you say he is better than a lot of multi year all stars that don't get in?

Mo Cheeks is a good comparison, because he was a great team player for those philly teams.  But that team made the finals 3 times and won a ring.  If they don't win a ring, does Cheeks get in the hall of fame?  Doubtful right?

He WAS a great team player. He also shot well over 50% from the field for Philly, except for his last two years there, where his FG% "dipped" to 49% and 48%. That is exceptional for a point guard. He wasn't a great outside shooter but deadly within 18 feet. And he was a terror on defense. That kind of 2-way player should certainly be considered for the HOF. There are worse players than him that have made it in there.
As for Al, I'm not sure he'll make it. Love what he does for this team but those voter-geeks won't see it that way once his time comes. He's not exceptional at any one thing that stands out about him. I voted no in this poll.

[mmmmm]

I think that folks need to slow down a bit with the hard conclusions here.  As I said earlier, he's not a "lock" at this point.  But his case for the HoF is probably going to be a lot stronger than some I think are saying.  And it's not as if his career is anywhere near over yet.

For one thing, if we remember that this is the Basketball (not NBA) Hall of Fame, then it is important to note that his two NCAA championships, where he was the best player on that team, probably carries some significant weight with some committee members.

Second, while Horford has never been a big 'stats' player, he nevertheless has been very consistent and durable and in particular, has managed to get to the playoffs all but one season of his career and has played rather well when he's been on that stage.   

Assuming he gets to at least 3-4 more playoff runs before he retires (something that seems _very_ achievable) and acrues just his career per-season-average numbers in each appearance, Al will likely retire in the top 30 all time in playoff rebounds, top 20 in playoff defensive rebounds, top 50 in playoff assists.  If he gets deep playoff runs similar to or deeper than these last two years (18 & 19 games), then he'll blow past those thresholds.   That will put him in the company of some very big names.

No guarantee any of that happens, of course.  Injuries happen, etc., etc.  But if healthy and the Cs do as well as we all hope, then he  likely hits those marks pretty easily.    Combine that with his NCAA record and his incredibly strong 'respect' cache around the league and I think he'll have no problem getting in.  Especially if he gets a title.

But all that just points out that his career is far from over and no, he's not a "lock".   But he's almost certainly a much stronger candidate than any numeric model like the bb-ref predictor implies.

[Sophomore]

For one thing, if we remember that this is the Basketball (not NBA) Hall of Fame, then it is important to note that his two NCAA championships, where he was the best player on that team, probably carries some significant weight with some committee members.

Agree in general, mmmmm, and think the college point is a good one. Separates him a little from other bubble candidates. A title or two in the NBA and continued high-level play would make a pretty solid case.

For what it's worth, when basketball reference lists his comps by win share, the closest player is Marc Gasol (still playing) followed by three guys who are now in the Hall - Clyde Lovellette, Alonzo Mourning, Dave Cowens.

[KGs Knee]

I wouldn't call him a lock, but given that the standard of admittance to the basketball HOF is pretty weak already, it's very possible Horford gets in.

[BitterJim]

I think that folks need to slow down a bit with the hard conclusions here.  As I said earlier, he's not a "lock" at this point.  But his case for the HoF is probably going to be a lot stronger than some I think are saying.  And it's not as if his career is anywhere near over yet.

For one thing, if we remember that this is the Basketball (not NBA) Hall of Fame, then it is important to note that his two NCAA championships, where he was the best player on that team, probably carries some significant weight with some committee members.

Second, while Horford has never been a big 'stats' player, he nevertheless has been very consistent and durable and in particular, has managed to get to the playoffs all but one season of his career and has played rather well when he's been on that stage.   

Assuming he gets to at least 3-4 more playoff runs before he retires (something that seems _very_ achievable) and acrues just his career per-season-average numbers in each appearance, Al will likely retire in the top 30 all time in playoff rebounds, top 20 in playoff defensive rebounds, top 50 in playoff assists.  If he gets deep playoff runs similar to or deeper than these last two years (18 & 19 games), then he'll blow past those thresholds.   That will put him in the company of some very big names.

No guarantee any of that happens, of course.  Injuries happen, etc., etc.  But if healthy and the Cs do as well as we all hope, then he  likely hits those marks pretty easily.    Combine that with his NCAA record and his incredibly strong 'respect' cache around the league and I think he'll have no problem getting in.  Especially if he gets a title.

But all that just points out that his career is far from over and no, he's not a "lock".   But he's almost certainly a much stronger candidate than any numeric model like the bb-ref predictor implies.

Never being on a team that missed the playoffs in his career (he hasn't missed them yet, and depending on how long his career goes/how long he stays with us he has a strong case for that continuing) should also help his case. It's not like he was a bench warner on those squads; he started nearly every game he played each year, make 5 all star games (so far) and you could argue that he was the best player on his team some years.

[gouki88]

I voted yes, more than anything because I have quite lofty expectations for the team over the next 4-5 years (being the remainder of Al's career, or so I expect). I believe we will win at least one ring, with Al playing a key role in it.

I see him retiring with 1 NBA championship, 2 NCAA championships, 5x All-Star appearances, 1x All-NBA Third Team, so far 1x Defensive Team (I could see him getting one more), never participating in a losing season and his rookie team appearance.
Add in an AmeriCup medal and two Centrobasket medals playing for the Dominican Republic, and I think he gets in.

[Surferdad]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

Nobody here is saying that titles don't matter. They matter quite a lot. It's just that individual awards matter more. As Moranis pointed out, admission to the HoF is an individual honour, and by this logic individual awards and performance matter more. Sorry I just don't see the logic except in a semantic sense.  This is a team sport.  Winning matters more to me.

As for Chamberlain, I'm surprised you say this. He's part of any HoF GOAT conversation I've seen online, and several NBA players (Pippen, Walt Frazier) consider him as the best ever.
I'm glad you corrected yourself.  Yes, he's always in the conversation but is rarely chosen as GOAT, from what I've seen.  I only brought up Wilt as a limiting case of huge individual accomplishment but less winning than you would expect.  That's why he's not my GOAT but obviously a HOFer and one of my 10 best all-time.
Even if you disagree with Pippen on Chamberlain, I don't see how this is a relevant point in discussing inclusion in the HoF. There are lots of HOFers who never won a ring - their names are so well known, it's not worth repeating them.

edit in strikethrough

Clearly you misunderstood me.  See comments in red above.

[BitterJim]

I voted yes, more than anything because I have quite lofty expectations for the team over the next 4-5 years (being the remainder of Al's career, or so I expect). I believe we will win at least one ring, with Al playing a key role in it.

I see him retiring with 1 NBA championship, 2 NCAA championships, 5x All-Star appearances, 1x All-NBA Third Team, so far 1x Defensive Team (I could see him getting one more), never participating in a losing season and his rookie team appearance.
Add in an AmeriCup medal and two Centrobasket medals playing for the Dominican Republic, and I think he gets in.

Just one note, although Horford's teams have never missed the playoffs, there have been "losing seasons".  His Hawks in 2013-14 made the playoffs despite being 38-44 (he tore his pec that year, and missed more than half the season plus the playoffs)

[gouki88]

I voted yes, more than anything because I have quite lofty expectations for the team over the next 4-5 years (being the remainder of Al's career, or so I expect). I believe we will win at least one ring, with Al playing a key role in it.

I see him retiring with 1 NBA championship, 2 NCAA championships, 5x All-Star appearances, 1x All-NBA Third Team, so far 1x Defensive Team (I could see him getting one more), never participating in a losing season and his rookie team appearance.
Add in an AmeriCup medal and two Centrobasket medals playing for the Dominican Republic, and I think he gets in.

Just one note, although Horford's teams have never missed the playoffs, there have been "losing seasons".  His Hawks in 2013-14 made the playoffs despite being 38-44 (he tore his pec that year, and missed more than half the season plus the playoffs)

Oh yeah, definitely something to note. However, being a starter on winning teams in I think 8/10 NBA seasons, including a 60 win team and multiple 50 win teams, is pretty good

[greece66]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

Nobody here is saying that titles don't matter. They matter quite a lot. It's just that individual awards matter more. As Moranis pointed out, admission to the HoF is an individual honour, and by this logic individual awards and performance matter more. Sorry I just don't see the logic except in a semantic sense.  This is a team sport.  Winning matters more to me.

As for Chamberlain, I'm surprised you say this. He's part of any HoF GOAT conversation I've seen online, and several NBA players (Pippen, Walt Frazier) consider him as the best ever.
I'm glad you corrected yourself.  Yes, he's always in the conversation but is rarely chosen as GOAT, from what I've seen.  I only brought up Wilt as a limiting case of huge individual accomplishment but less winning than you would expect.  That's why he's not my GOAT but obviously a HOFer and one of my 10 best all-time.
Even if you disagree with Pippen on Chamberlain, I don't see how this is a relevant point in discussing inclusion in the HoF. There are lots of HOFers who never won a ring - their names are so well known, it's not worth repeating them.

edit in strikethrough

Clearly you misunderstood me.  See comments in red above.

Thanks for correcting my text in red. It's one of these feelings I've missed since finishing 6th grade.

[greece66]

Interesting question is - does he have a better or worse chance than Rondo?

Rondo has

4x All-Star
1x All-NBA (3rd)
4x All-Defense (2x 1st, 2x 2nd)
3x league leader in assists
1x league leader in steals
1x Ring
2x Finals
3x ECFs
0x College Rings

Al has

5x All-Star
1x All-NBA (3rd)
1x All-defense (2nd)
0x league leader in a major stat
0x Ring
0x Finals
3x ECFs
2x College Rings

The big advantage Al has is being regarded as a much better teammate, but this plus Rondo's gaudier counting stats, which Al has never excelled at, means Rajon's probably closer to the front of line, right? And I don't think he's got a great chance either. Just some perspective.

I like this comparison. If both finished their career now, Rondo would be more likely to enter the HoF. Leading the league three times in assists and once in steals is quite an achievement.
But by the time they end their careers, I believe Horford's chances will have improved. Obv has more chances to enter ASG's being a better player now, and playing in the EC.

I might edit this post to add more tomorrow, as it requires some research.

[Surferdad]

...

Thanks for correcting my text in red. It's one of these feelings I've missed since finishing 6th grade.

I detect a hint of sarcasm, but it's well-founded.  My job is all about documentation, the written words and accurate written communication.  It's just a reflex for me to mark up your term paper in red font.   

[SHAQATTACK]

if he can win a ring and play out his career in relatively good heath and production he should.

[Moranis]

He needs to win some awards.  He really isn't all that decorated at this point and given his age, he doesn't have much time.  If he wins a DPOY in the next couple of seasons, for example, that would help him immensely, especially if he picks up a title or two with Boston when he is still a starter and integral reason why.

Needs to win at least one NBA title much more than winning any individual awards.

It's just one example but I'd take Robert Horry over Carmelo Anthony or Vince Carter.  I'm not saying something like this would be the norm.

Individual awards matter more.

Think of it this way, if you had to choose between a player who has 7 nba titles but no ASGs and a players with no nba title but 7 ASGs, whom would you take?

This is also reflected in bball ref's model.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

Of course I immediately thought of Robert Horry too.  However, it's the wrong argument.  Al Horford already have 5 all-star appearances.  In his case, I don't see how individual awards matter as much as titles.  How anyone can argue that a title is less important than a DPOY award for him is beyond me.

Because the HOF is an individual honor same as a DPOY, while a title is not, that is a team honor, especially as is the case with Horford he will be perceived at best as the 3rd best player on that team.

I disagree.  HOF honor is given to an individual, but that doesn't mean it is only about individual performance, it is about both.

Why isn't Wilt considered GOAT based on his individuals stats?  Then there's the opposite case:
 For many years, I considered Bill Russell to be GOAT, full-stop, because of the 11 titles.  I have changed my thinking because that thinking excludes individual performance.  You have to consider both individual and team success.  (BTW, if pressed I would go with MJ as GOAT).

Nobody here is saying that titles don't matter. They matter quite a lot. It's just that individual awards matter more. As Moranis pointed out, admission to the HoF is an individual honour, and by this logic individual awards and performance matter more. Sorry I just don't see the logic except in a semantic sense.  This is a team sport.  Winning matters more to me.

As for Chamberlain, I'm surprised you say this. He's part of any HoF GOAT conversation I've seen online, and several NBA players (Pippen, Walt Frazier) consider him as the best ever.
I'm glad you corrected yourself.  Yes, he's always in the conversation but is rarely chosen as GOAT, from what I've seen.  I only brought up Wilt as a limiting case of huge individual accomplishment but less winning than you would expect.  That's why he's not my GOAT but obviously a HOFer and one of my 10 best all-time.
Even if you disagree with Pippen on Chamberlain, I don't see how this is a relevant point in discussing inclusion in the HoF. There are lots of HOFers who never won a ring - their names are so well known, it's not worth repeating them.

edit in strikethrough

Clearly you misunderstood me.  See comments in red above.

He actually didn't misunderstand you at all.  You just weighed your own personal preference over what is in fact the reality.  The HOF is much more about individual accolades than team accolades.  You may not agree with that, but that is reality. 

And as has been pointed out, Wilt was widely regarded as the greatest player ever until Jordan.  The same Jordan who has the same statistical dominance that Wilt has, especially when compared to his peers.  Just because you put team wins ahead of personal accomplishments, doesn't mean most of society did that also.