Logic - from what we can gather thus far from the minimal leaks involving the Celtics package, one thing is clear: Griffin highly values Tatum as the ultimate prize for AD. Per reports, we could probably get away with a package of something like Tatum, Smart, salary filler, and #14 pick for AD at this point, which for AD is a pretty great deal.
Let's imagine that Danny has a pretty good idea that Kyrie is going to Brooklyn, yet he still says screw it and decides he is going for it now. He then puts the ultimatum back on Griffin and says, "Fine, if you want Tatum and the Memphis pick, then I want Jrue back along with AD." While NOLA is not actively shopping Jrue, I think they would seriously consider trading him under these conditions. So a couple of assumptions first:
Assumption 1 - NOLA would trade Jrue alongside AD in the right package, even though they currently aren't actively searching for a trade.
Assumption 2 - Horford is willing to opt-in to the final year of his contract and be traded to another contender, specifically the Rockets. This has been floated about a lot in the media as a plan B option if the C's go young, so I think it's fairly plausible, especially to Houston since they were high on his list in free agency. This would give Horford and Houston a serious shot to come out of the West.
Assumption 3 - Rozier is willing to sign a $60M/4 Year deal in NOLA. I think this is also fairly plausible, as this would allow him a starting position (which is his first priority), alongside a really young and talented group. I also don't think this contract is unreasonable if Griffin still thinks he can replicate something at least close to "2018 Playoff Terry" with a bigger role and more touches. That said, Smart can easily take Rozier's place in this trade if this assumption wouldn't play out, as the money would still work (I believe).
The Trade:
Boston: AD, Holiday, Hartenstein (Non-guaranteed salary filler)
NOLA: Capela, Rozier, Gordon (possible further trade bait for NOLA), Tatum, 2020 Memphis pick, 2019 # 20 pick
Houston: Horford, Moore, 2019 #22 pick
Here's the salary breakdown that I think I have right and which works:
Pelicans Out: Pelicans In:
Jrue - $26,131,111 Rozier - $15,000,000
AD - $27,093, 019 Tatum - $7,830,000
Moore - $8,664,928 Gordon - $14,057,730
Total - $61,889,058 Capela - $16,896,552
Total - $53,784,282
Boston Out: Boston In:
Rozier - $15,000,000 ($7.5M outgoing) AD - $27,093, 019
Tatum - $7,830,000 Jrue - $26,131,111
Horford - $30,123,015 Hartenstein - $1,416,852
Total - $45,453,015 Total - $54,640,982
Houston Out: Houston In:
Capela - $16,896,552 Horford - $30,123,015
Gordon - $14,057,730 Moore - $8,664,928
Hartenstein - $1,416,852 Total - $38,787,943
Total - $32,321,134
Why for NOLA - This gets them their single prize to pair with Zion (Tatum), the Memphis pick and another first round pick this year, alongside two young vets with solid starting potential who also pair well with the rest of the roster. That's a really good haul for those two players given the context. Further, a young core of Zion, Tatum, Capela, Rozier, #22 pick, and the Memphis pick in 2020/2021 is super exciting and fits really well together as a fast-paced, athletic running team. They would definitely become prime time NBA League Pass material.
Why for Houston - It has already been reported that Morey is ready and willing to trade anyone and everyone not named Harden in order to improve the squad to be a more realistic threat this year. In the playoffs, Capela really struggled trying to guard GS's perimeter guys on switches, and he doesn't look to be the kind of offensive fit that they need to really come out of the West given his limited offensive game and lack of spacing. Horford, on the other hand, is an excellent fit in that offense and would make them so much deadlier offensively with his spacing and passing, while still being able to be an anchor defensively. And while they do lose Gordon in the deal, they get back Moore (an even more efficient three point shooter who would thrive in D'Antoni's system) and the number 22 pick in this draft.
Why for Boston - This move would allow Boston to compete for a title this year and for the foreseeable future if we convinced AD to stay, as Holiday is a pretty underrated borderline All-Star player in his prime that plays at a high-level on both sides of the ball. If we resigned Mook to a deal somewhere around $50M/4 years, that would leave us with the following roster before considering any other free agents:
PG: Holiday, Wanamaker
SG: Brown, Smart
SF: Hayward, Semi
PF: Morris, Theis, Yabusele
C: Davis, Baynes, Williams
That's a contending roster that is very, very good on both sides of the ball and would have to be favored to come out of the East, so long as Hayward has made some improvements over the summer being farther away from the injury. Further, while we do lose a bit of youth with Tatum, we actually get younger with Davis (26) and Holiday (29) instead of having Horford, who potentially could be starting to lose a step or two. Add a rotation player with the draft pick and someone like an Ariza and/or Rubio/Beverly, and that roster is stacked. It's also a good mix of vets entering/in their prime and younger guys still improving - Holiday (29), Brown (22), Hayward (29), Morris (29), Davis (26), Smart (25), Baynes (32), Semi (24), Yabusele (23), Theis (27), Williams (21).
What's even better about this is that you would significantly increase your chances of keeping AD. First, AD and Holiday are very close and really bonded as teammates, so that gives him another incentive to stay if the team succeeds. Further, by paying Morris you build up a bit of good will with Rich Paul, which while technically not supposed to matter in any AD decision, it will definitely go a long way toward making him less hostile to resigning in Boston.
So what do you say to this kind of deal if you're Danny and have a strong suspicion that Kyrie is Brooklyn-bound? Who says no?
Poll
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