Can Brad Stevens help Kyrie Irving become a top 5-10 NBA player? Still improving

[Roy H.]

For Kyrie to take that 'next leap' he's going to have to realize a jump in numbers, either scoring more per game or in assisting more per game or both.

This is not the case, unless by numbers you also broadly meant to include advanced defensive metrics.  Which I assume you didn't, because if you did, saying 'a jump in numbers' means that you basically said 'for kyrie to get better, he's going to have to get better.'

ESPN rated Kyrie as top 16 last year and #25 this year, despite making major strides between those rankings coming out.  Let's meet in the middle and say he's #20.  How much better would Kyrie be if he became just a slightly above average defender?

Well, ESPN had Jimmy Butler at #11.  The same Jimmy Butler who played on all star team with the league MVP and DPOY... and IIRC they didn't make the conference finals a single time in a multi-year span, playing in the worst conference in history.  The same Jimmy Butler that put up great stats, but played on a #8 seed in the East and got outplayed in the clutch by the 3rd best player on our team, a guy who never has been and probably never will be an all star.

Butler is well above 'above average' at defense, but less offensively talented and much less accomplished in the playoffs than Kyrie... and we're only talking about Kyrie making a leap on D and considering nothing else...

So yeah, if Jimmy Butler can be considered a top 11 player, then CBS can help Kyrie become a top 10 player.  Will it happen?  Not sure.  Can it happen?  100% it can happen.

I agree becoming an above average defender (while maintaining his offense and leading a winning team) would lead to a big leap.

At the same time, I'm not sure that he's capable.  I don't think it's simply a matter of effort or commitment.

I would agree if I didn't watch him guard Steph Curry, one of the toughest guys to D up of my lifetime, about as well as I've seen anyone do it. Yes it was only about a week or work and if you're going to do it the finals would definitely be the time, but to me it offers hope.

The same guy got absolutely torched by Shaun Livingston, though. He played the worse defense (statistically) of any starter in the 2016 Finals, allowing opponents to shoot 8 percentage points above their normal FG%.

It is fair to criticize Kyrie's effort, but I think it's more than that. Playing defense against NBA players is very hard and requires high level skills.

Shaun Livingston is 6'7" who can post up.  That is not a good example.

Why not? Shaun Livingston is tall, but he's pretty average; he shouldn't be abusing anybody.  He also shot 59% from mid-range; he's not much of a post threat.

Anyway, his defense was atrocious in that series. It makes sense, because his defense has been atrocious every year of his career, and across his playoff career as a whole.

That series makes sense to look at, though, because many claim he played good defense in the series (he didn't, at least results-wise) and because folks claim that Kyrie's poor defense is due to effort. Unless Kyrie was putting in lazy effort in the Finals, the results suggest that the problem is more fundamental than trying harder.

It seems that calling Kyrie's D atrocious has become a mission of yours. I think I get it now- you don't think he plays good defense.

Harden isn't a great defender and neither is IT, but both were top 10 players last year.

It would have been hard to predict IT's season last year. It's also not going to be easy to predict what Kyrie will do on a different team with a different philosophy and a different role.

I'm going to predict that he will be a borderline top 10 player that won't score as much as IT, but will play better D.

Did you read the context of the exchange? Because your post is non-responsive to it.

I believe this has been mentioned multiple times, but rather than respond to what you think a poster's mission is, respond to their argument or not at all.

[smokeablount]

This trade is a can't lose move.

What if Kyrie is just the same player he's been for the first 6 years of his career? What if Kyrie gets seriously injured (something that's happened many times before)? What if Isaiah returns to the level he played at last year? What if the Cavs win the lottery? What if Kyrie leaves in 2 years? There are many, many ways for this to be a "lose" move.

Ok, but how likely are these things?  Better yet, name a single guard in his 20's that we acquired from another team or via free agency who served as a distributor for us, and didn't get better.  Not saying there isn't one, but Jordan Crawford, Evan Turner, and IT make me feel pretty [dang] confident that Kyrie's game is going to improve as early as this year.

One of these things occurring, which would be enough to sink the trade, is pretty likely. But that's beside the point. I was taking issue with the idea that the trade is a "can't lose." There are countless ways for us to lose the trade.

Ah my bad, got ahead of myself there, makes sense. I think Kyrie not taking his game up a notch has a reasonable expectation but IMO the other options don't seem super likely. But certainly possible, and the trade certainly wasn't 'can't lose' as you say.

[smokeablount]

For Kyrie to take that 'next leap' he's going to have to realize a jump in numbers, either scoring more per game or in assisting more per game or both.

This is not the case, unless by numbers you also broadly meant to include advanced defensive metrics.  Which I assume you didn't, because if you did, saying 'a jump in numbers' means that you basically said 'for kyrie to get better, he's going to have to get better.'

ESPN rated Kyrie as top 16 last year and #25 this year, despite making major strides between those rankings coming out.  Let's meet in the middle and say he's #20.  How much better would Kyrie be if he became just a slightly above average defender?

Well, ESPN had Jimmy Butler at #11.  The same Jimmy Butler who played on all star team with the league MVP and DPOY... and IIRC they didn't make the conference finals a single time in a multi-year span, playing in the worst conference in history.  The same Jimmy Butler that put up great stats, but played on a #8 seed in the East and got outplayed in the clutch by the 3rd best player on our team, a guy who never has been and probably never will be an all star.

Butler is well above 'above average' at defense, but less offensively talented and much less accomplished in the playoffs than Kyrie... and we're only talking about Kyrie making a leap on D and considering nothing else...

So yeah, if Jimmy Butler can be considered a top 11 player, then CBS can help Kyrie become a top 10 player.  Will it happen?  Not sure.  Can it happen?  100% it can happen.

I agree becoming an above average defender (while maintaining his offense and leading a winning team) would lead to a big leap.

At the same time, I'm not sure that he's capable.  I don't think it's simply a matter of effort or commitment.

I would agree if I didn't watch him guard Steph Curry, one of the toughest guys to D up of my lifetime, about as well as I've seen anyone do it. Yes it was only about a week or work and if you're going to do it the finals would definitely be the time, but to me it offers hope.

In the playoff year in which Curry was injured and clearly playing hobbled.  Yes.

And Curry _still_ scored at an elite 58.0% TS% efficiency in that series.

TP, that's a fair point. Regarding Brad and PGs, I just think he puts guys in a position to play to their strengths and so they don't have to overthink things. We'll have to agree to disagree about their performance here vs. elsewhere, but that's fine. I just think Kyrie has upside from what he's done so far in his career, and it's not necessarily all about his stats. Defense, better passing, leadership, better efficiency- even if only 1-2 of those things actually improve, I think they all could be in play.

It also looks like you may have quoted my rough draft of my response about PGs, which was definitely harsh so I revised it as soon as possible. Didn't mean to be a jerk.

[smokeablount]

For Kyrie to take that 'next leap' he's going to have to realize a jump in numbers, either scoring more per game or in assisting more per game or both.

This is not the case, unless by numbers you also broadly meant to include advanced defensive metrics.  Which I assume you didn't, because if you did, saying 'a jump in numbers' means that you basically said 'for kyrie to get better, he's going to have to get better.'

ESPN rated Kyrie as top 16 last year and #25 this year, despite making major strides between those rankings coming out.  Let's meet in the middle and say he's #20.  How much better would Kyrie be if he became just a slightly above average defender?

Well, ESPN had Jimmy Butler at #11.  The same Jimmy Butler who played on all star team with the league MVP and DPOY... and IIRC they didn't make the conference finals a single time in a multi-year span, playing in the worst conference in history.  The same Jimmy Butler that put up great stats, but played on a #8 seed in the East and got outplayed in the clutch by the 3rd best player on our team, a guy who never has been and probably never will be an all star.

Butler is well above 'above average' at defense, but less offensively talented and much less accomplished in the playoffs than Kyrie... and we're only talking about Kyrie making a leap on D and considering nothing else...

So yeah, if Jimmy Butler can be considered a top 11 player, then CBS can help Kyrie become a top 10 player.  Will it happen?  Not sure.  Can it happen?  100% it can happen.

I don't think Kyrie becoming an average or even slightly above average defender really moves the needle much.

It's a positional thing.  Defense for scoring guards just isn't nearly as important in the game today as it is for wings and bigs.   Harden, Curry, Westbrook - these guys are not elite, MVP caliber players because of their defense.  And even though Chris Paul is a pretty good defender, that's not why he's an elite PG either.

You can see this reality in games that match up elite defensive guards like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart against elite scoring guards like Curry, Lowry, and yes, Irving.   Yes, the great defender will win a highlight reel play here and there.  But overall, they just get torched just the same as all the 'bad' defensive guards.   What slows those guys down is superior defense in the paint _behind_ the guards.

The way the rules are enforced (no hand-checking, zone defenses) the prevalence of the pick & roll (forcing switches onto slower bigs) and the importance of the 3PT shot has basically made this the modern reality.  Defense in perimeter guards is simply not as important as it was in the days of guys like Dennis Johnson an Reggie Lewis.

I disagree with some of the emphasis you've put on gauging Kyries improvement with stats, but I think these are really strong points you just made. But I have to ask... if that's the case, how is it fair to downgrade Kyrie as a player because his D isn't up to par?

I'm not saying you've done that, because from what I can tell you frequently emphasize what would have to happen on the court for his stats to make a jump, but I'd like your take.

[Roy H.]

For Kyrie to take that 'next leap' he's going to have to realize a jump in numbers, either scoring more per game or in assisting more per game or both.

This is not the case, unless by numbers you also broadly meant to include advanced defensive metrics.  Which I assume you didn't, because if you did, saying 'a jump in numbers' means that you basically said 'for kyrie to get better, he's going to have to get better.'

ESPN rated Kyrie as top 16 last year and #25 this year, despite making major strides between those rankings coming out.  Let's meet in the middle and say he's #20.  How much better would Kyrie be if he became just a slightly above average defender?

Well, ESPN had Jimmy Butler at #11.  The same Jimmy Butler who played on all star team with the league MVP and DPOY... and IIRC they didn't make the conference finals a single time in a multi-year span, playing in the worst conference in history.  The same Jimmy Butler that put up great stats, but played on a #8 seed in the East and got outplayed in the clutch by the 3rd best player on our team, a guy who never has been and probably never will be an all star.

Butler is well above 'above average' at defense, but less offensively talented and much less accomplished in the playoffs than Kyrie... and we're only talking about Kyrie making a leap on D and considering nothing else...

So yeah, if Jimmy Butler can be considered a top 11 player, then CBS can help Kyrie become a top 10 player.  Will it happen?  Not sure.  Can it happen?  100% it can happen.

I don't think Kyrie becoming an average or even slightly above average defender really moves the needle much.

It's a positional thing.  Defense for scoring guards just isn't nearly as important in the game today as it is for wings and bigs.   Harden, Curry, Westbrook - these guys are not elite, MVP caliber players because of their defense.  And even though Chris Paul is a pretty good defender, that's not why he's an elite PG either.

You can see this reality in games that match up elite defensive guards like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart against elite scoring guards like Curry, Lowry, and yes, Irving.   Yes, the great defender will win a highlight reel play here and there.  But overall, they just get torched just the same as all the 'bad' defensive guards.   What slows those guys down is superior defense in the paint _behind_ the guards.

The way the rules are enforced (no hand-checking, zone defenses) the prevalence of the pick & roll (forcing switches onto slower bigs) and the importance of the 3PT shot has basically made this the modern reality.  Defense in perimeter guards is simply not as important as it was in the days of guys like Dennis Johnson an Reggie Lewis.

I disagree with some of the emphasis you've put on gauging Kyries improvement with stats, but I think these are really strong points you just made. But I have to ask... if that's the case, how is it fair to downgrade Kyrie as a player because his D isn't up to par?

I'm not saying you've done that, because from what I can tell you frequently emphasize what would have to happen on the court for his stats to make a jump, but I'd like your take.

I actually agree with your original point, and disagree with mmmm to some extent.

There are multiple ways for Kyrie to become elite, but they all relate to net points produced.

How those net points are achieved doesn't matter much. He can create more points for himself (so long as doing so doesn't harm the team). He can create points for others. Or, he can take points away from the opponents.

A spike in one of these areas, or a modest improvement across all three, would probably lead to the top-10 leap people are hoping for.

[tarheelsxxiii]

Would any one argue that Damian Lillard could be a top 5-10 player in the league?  I don't recall any prior discussions here about Kyrie being among the 5-10 best players in the NBA. 

[mmmmm]

I don't think Kyrie becoming an average or even slightly above average defender really moves the needle much.

It's a positional thing.  Defense for scoring guards just isn't nearly as important in the game today as it is for wings and bigs.   Harden, Curry, Westbrook - these guys are not elite, MVP caliber players because of their defense.  And even though Chris Paul is a pretty good defender, that's not why he's an elite PG either.

You can see this reality in games that match up elite defensive guards like Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart against elite scoring guards like Curry, Lowry, and yes, Irving.   Yes, the great defender will win a highlight reel play here and there.  But overall, they just get torched just the same as all the 'bad' defensive guards.   What slows those guys down is superior defense in the paint _behind_ the guards.

The way the rules are enforced (no hand-checking, zone defenses) the prevalence of the pick & roll (forcing switches onto slower bigs) and the importance of the 3PT shot has basically made this the modern reality.  Defense in perimeter guards is simply not as important as it was in the days of guys like Dennis Johnson an Reggie Lewis.

I disagree with some of the emphasis you've put on gauging Kyries improvement with stats, but I think these are really strong points you just made. But I have to ask... if that's the case, how is it fair to downgrade Kyrie as a player because his D isn't up to par?

I'm not saying you've done that, because from what I can tell you frequently emphasize what would have to happen on the court for his stats to make a jump, but I'd like your take.

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I personally do NOT downgrade Kyrie as a player for being a poor  defender (although I do think it is silly when people laud his defensive 'potential' versus Thomas' defense as an advantage of the trade).

To me, players like this are overwhelmingly about their offensive value.  Which is why in my opinion, if we are expecting KI to take his game to 'the next level', he's going to have to do that with his offensive efficiency.

[chambers]

Good discussion.
Let's assume Kyrie takes more threes and makes the same %. Right now he's at 6 attempts a game. Another 2 attempts a game, with the total volume of his looks being even more wide open than in Cleveland's often stagnant offense- there's serious hope for even more  improvement and efficiency.

eg: catch and shoot jumpshots made up only 3% of his total offense, yet he shoots 48% on catch and shoots. What do we think Brad's going to run?

eg: He was in the 100th percentile on dribble handoffs in the playoffs, yet they made up less than 10% of his total shot attempts.
Brad's going to be all over this. He had so much success in dribble hand offs with IT and the dribble handoff basically turned IT into a playmaking machine once he knew where his team mates were going to be after driving into the paint.

It's understated how beneficial playing with Al Horford will be for Irving and the spacing in the paint it will provide. Tristan Thompson was like parked truck in the paint for the Cavs- and if he wasn't in the paint, his man could sag off without any consequences- Horford's defenders MUST go out to him and stop the 3.

While Kyrie won't have Lebron on the wing commanding attention (who often just watches and waits after giving Kyrie the ball), but he'll have Hayward shooting 40% from 3, and Al Horford screening and popping out rather than Tristan Thompson screening and rolling (clogging up the paint) every single time.

He's going to have so much more space in the paint to operate, and once he gets comfortable knowing where his team mates will be on each play, his assists will increase.

It's my bold prediction that he's going to be a certified, undeniable top 10 player in the NBA by his 2nd season under Brad Stevens.

[Celts Fan 508]

Top 5-10?  No

Top 3?  Absolutely

[SHAQATTACK]

Buttttttttt......Team best player in the world  LeBron did the best he could .......being GM , defacto owner.  coach and sometimes player (when it suits him) occupies a mans time . 

[moiso]

Would any one argue that Damian Lillard could be a top 5-10 player in the league?  I don't recall any prior discussions here about Kyrie being among the 5-10 best players in the NBA.

Exactly.  It's so weird.  And all the other players such as Curry, Westbrook, Paul, and Harden have the ability to pass the ball.  We have a one dimensional ballhog on our hands and every Celticsblogger thinks he's a superstar.

[Somebody]

Would any one argue that Damian Lillard could be a top 5-10 player in the league?  I don't recall any prior discussions here about Kyrie being among the 5-10 best players in the NBA.

Exactly.  It's so weird.  And all the other players such as Curry, Westbrook, Paul, and Harden have the ability to pass the ball.  We have a one dimensional ballhog on our hands and every Celticsblogger thinks he's a superstar.

I don't think Kyrie is a superstar; he needs to improve on his offense (yes I said it, he needs to be more efficient), his passing and his defense at least to make the trade worth. Dude needs to have a Harden level season with average defense to make me feel okay with the trade, much less happy.

[Celtics4ever]

I don't think Kyrie is a superstar; he needs to improve on his offense (yes I said it, he needs to be more efficient), his passing and his defense at least to make the trade worth. Dude needs to have a Harden level season with average defense to make me feel okay with the trade, much less happy.

Do you think IT is a superstar?

 I don't.

Kyrie Irving Career NBA Highlights

NBA champion (2016)
4× NBA All-Star (2013–2015, 2017)
NBA All-Star Game MVP (2014)
All-NBA Third Team (2015)
NBA Rookie of the Year (2012)
NBA All-Rookie First Team (2012)
NBA Rising Stars Challenge MVP (2012)
NBA Three-Point Shootout champion (2013)
USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year (2014)
FIBA World Cup MVP (2014)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyrie_Irving

Isaiah Thomas Career NBA Highlights

2× NBA All-Star (2016, 2017)
All-NBA Second Team (2017)
NBA All-Rookie Second Team (2012)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaiah_Thomas_(basketball)

I would think most would concede that Kyrie is closer to being a superstar than IT.   But we know their stats are close.   Time will tell who is right....

I think that he may be more productive without LeBron dominating the ball so much but time will tell.   We have great ball movement but like IT he is going to be one of our main guys when the clock is winding down both IT and Kyrie can shoot with guys in their face and make shots.  Both are great one on one players.

I don't think Kyrie is a superstar; he needs to improve on his offense (yes I said it, he needs to be more efficient), his passing and his defense at least to make the trade worth. Dude needs to have a Harden level season with average defense to make me feel okay with the trade, much less happy.

Will still feel this way if IT is out for an extended time?   My guess is no, at least if you're being honest about how it affects our basketball performance.   Separate being a fan for a moment from your basketball logic.   

This was the logical move, given the Brinks truck comments and the injury affecting IT's career.  It was a cold heartless trade by Ainge, but it was a rational one.   No one wanted his horde of picks when he tried to trade them and folks that did asked too much.   We get a player who is almost the same statistically, who is a more ideally sized.   Hayward is a better player than Crowder but the media is already starting to love Jae more now he has left Boston.

Now the question will being better on paper translate on the court.   We all know that sometimes it does not ....

[Tr1boy]

He already is

Espn ranking is a joke

AHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Oh, you're serious?

AHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Who has played better in the finals

Kyrie or Curry?

Who has played better in the playoffs

RW or Kyrie?

Harden or Kyrie?

Kyrie is a top 2-3 closer in the league. Tested at the highest stress level (finals).  That is worth a ton

Cant be overlooked

[chambers]

Would any one argue that Damian Lillard could be a top 5-10 player in the league?  I don't recall any prior discussions here about Kyrie being among the 5-10 best players in the NBA.

Exactly.  It's so weird.  And all the other players such as Curry, Westbrook, Paul, and Harden have the ability to pass the ball.  We have a one dimensional ballhog on our hands and every Celticsblogger thinks he's a superstar.

So you think Lilliard is better than Irving? Because I'd strongly disagree. Lilliard is also almost 2 years older than Irving.

You sound like a strong Kyrie hater if you're going to insist that 'every celticsblogger thinks he's a superstar' because the whole topic is about if he can become a bonafied NBA superstar under Stevens at age 25.

You're calling him a one dimensional ball hog but you're not considering that he's going to think about the game in a different way under Brad Stevens as his coach, talking to him, teaching him, living and breathing basketball on the bus/plane/practice court/breakfast.

He wants to understand the game more- it's why he wanted guys like Popovic and Stevens- to expand his game and continue to get better. The kid is hungry- yes he's somewhat egotistical but he's hungry and he knows he's not beating the Warriors (or Lebron) without getting better.

To call him a ball hog is pretty rude considering he's a scoring guard ala Isaiah Thomas and Steph Curry. Just because he's on the shorter side doesn't mean he has play the facilitating point guard. Jesus he had the same assist average as IT last season AND Lilliard- in a very high isolation % offense. One less assist per game than Steph Curry. So what if he's had high usage- the ball doesn't move as much with Lebron on the team as the main facilitator- he's playing off ball and it's either Lebron, Kyrie or Love isolations or basic pick and roll with Thompson clogging up the paint and hurting spacing.

Anyway, I don't think you're giving him enough credit. There's nothing ridiculous about discussing the notion that he could actually be a top 10 NBA player, perhaps even better considering his age, skillset, 'killer' instinct/mental toughness and experience at such an age.

He's gotta be the most decorated NBA player age 25 or under right? Other than Anthony Davis?
Why can't get better with a genius coach like we have? With the right attitude and open mind (which he seems to be an extremely open minded guy), why can't he be a superstar?