IT4 believes he's due a MAX contract

[green_bballers13]

I've been pretty consistent that I don't think Boston pays IT a max contract because it will be a bad contract that will likely cause Boston to lose a young player for a team that isn't a real contender.  Now if Boston acquires another player this summer or at the deadline that vaults Boston into true contender status, then signing Thomas makes a lot of sense as it keeps the team at that high level.

What young player are you most concerned about?  Jaylen hits restricted free agency during the year that Horford's contract ends.  That immediately removes the strain of 1 max contract.  Tatum would hit restricted free agency the year that Haywards contract ends.  The only dilemma might be regarding the luxury tax and resigning Gordon Hayward.  We don't know what the cap will be but I suppose an IT max could cost us Hayward.  If Tatum reaches his potential then there is no way Hayward stands in the way of bringing him back.  At the end of the day our franchise is fine if Jaylen, Tatum, and future draft picks turn into Stars.

I think you guys are vastly underestimating the cap and more importantly tax implications. 

Boston has under contract for the 2018/19 season right now
Hayward - 31 million
Horford - 29 million
Crowder - 7 million
Tatum - 7 million
Morris - 5 million
Brown - 5 million
Rozier - 3 million
Zizic - 2 million
Yabu - 3 million
BKN - 6-7 million
LAL - 5-6 million
BOS - 2 million

So those 12 contracts are 105-7 million, which is already over the cap.  That doesn't include Thomas or Smart.  Assuming Thomas gets a max at 30 million.  That puts the team at 135 million which is well into luxury tax range and doesn't have Smart.  So Smart is likely gone next summer because I can't see Boston paying him 15-20 million in salary, when every single penny of that is luxury tax. 

So then Boston enters the 19-20 season with 94 million tied up in Thomas, Horford, and Hayward.  Brown, Tatum, and Crowder are another 22 million.  The 3 18 rookies add another 19 million.  So that is 134 million, which will again be over the luxury tax and that is just 9 players and doesn't count Zizic or Yabu (6 million or so) or Boston's 19 pick (3 million).  So that puts the roster at 143 million with 12 players.  Rozier will be a free agent.  No way he is kept.  Boston also loses Morris, who presumably is the starting PF.  Maybe Tatum or one of the 18 rookies is ready to be a starting NBA PF, but maybe not.  So what do you do with that position.

So entering the summer of 2020 when Horford comes off the books, Boston will be a two time luxury tax player on a team that realistically hasn't won a title.  Brown will be due for his  raise that summer and likely replaces much of Horford's salary.  Crowder also comes off the books and Hayward has a player option (which he likely opts out of and then will look for a 10 year vet max contract).  Now maybe a team of Thomas, Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Zizic, Yabu, and the 3 18 rookies is ready to compete for a title, but I think the odds of that are low. Boston may be able to avoid the tax that summer, but it means Horford and Crowder are gone and Boston isn't bring any high paid vets and if Boston can't avoid the tax (because of Hayward's raise and Brown's new contract) that puts Boston into repeater tax range and the team still hasn't realistically competed for a title to that point (though might finally have that team as a result of all the young players).

The repeater tax is nasty.  It is unlikely that Boston will want to pay the repeater tax, but then that means Hayward is gone and it will be hard to keep all of Brown, Tatum, BKN, LAL, Zizic, Bos 18, Bos 19, etc. going forward.


Maxing Thomas next summer just doesn't make financial sense unless Boston is a realistic contender.  I don't see Boston as a realistic contender without acquiring another top level player (which will require some of the prime assets).  So if Boston doesn't trade for that player, I don't expect them to keep Thomas if Thomas really wants a max.  Even a 3 year max won't fix the luxury tax problems the team will have.

I think they fully expect to contend for the title as soon as this season but definitely next season.

No they don't.  There is a reason Wyc said they were 2 players away, because they were 2 players away.  They added Hayward, meaning they are still 1 player away.  That player isn't on the roster for this season and probably next (maybe Brown or Tatum gets there, maybe not). 

And let's think about this logically, there is no way Thomas, Hayward, and Horford with really young players and guys like Crowder and Morris are a team that is going to win a title with that core group.  Even if the Cavs implode next summer, Boston isn't better than any number of western teams and who knows maybe the Sixers or Bucks take a big leap this season and enter the 19 season as the best team in the East. 

Boston isn't winning a title with Thomas, Hayward, and Horford as the core of the team.  Sadly that team just isn't good enough.  And you can't keep all 3 and expect the young players to really develop into a contender for the tax reasons I outlined.  It would be great if those guys could all be around and be bench players on a team led by Brown, Tatum, Porter, Bamba, etc. but financially it just isn't going to work.

Well, we were clearly the 4th best team last season (GSW, SAS, CLE). We undoubtedly got better. I love AB, but Hayward is a better player. We got bigger and more talented. We added Tatum, who by all accounts is an NBA-ready scorer. We added Morris, who is a solid player in his own right. We can expect Brown to be improved.

So the question remains how much better? Nobody knows yet. But I'm sure the other top teams are certainly watching us. They know we have the current roster and future assets to make a move to the very top.


As for the salaries, I wouldn't worry too much about them, especially 2-3'years down the road. We see how teams can dump bad contracts if they add a little sweetener to the deal. We can give any GM in the league a mouthful of cavities if we really had to. Ainge and Wyc seem to be very cohesive in the deals being made. You're not signing Horford, then Hayward, only to let IT walk. Who thought he would only be asking for $15M a season? The guy is the best bargain off a rookie deal in the entire NBA. He deserves to get paid now. We will do it, and Ainge will continue adding talent to this team until we raise our next banner.

Houston had more wins than Boston did last year as well and then proceeded to add one of the best PG's in basketball history.  Boston barely beat Washington and if not for a Rondo injury might have lost to Chicago.  Sure Boston was in the ECF, but they got absolutely shellacked by a team that went on to lose the Finals in 5 games.  Hayward, Tatum and Morris are collectively better than Bradley, Olynyk, and Johnson, so the gap has closed a bit, but not nearly enough.  If Boston was in the west it would probably be the 5th seed this season behind GS, SA, Houston, and OKC.  Cleveland is still clearly a better team (though Boston will probably have more regular season wins).  A team that is at its best the 6th best team in the game is not a contender and ownership isn't going to pay crazy luxury taxes for a team that isn't a contender.

Just about the time that I was getting excited about the Celtics future, I read this post. Barely beat Washington and should have lost to Chicago? That is definitely one view. Another view: they overcame adversity showing resilience.

Everyone knows they're not the most talented team, but let us not pretend that talent alone wins championships. It is a combination of talent + coaching  + chemistry (look at how SA won so many times). This is the model that the Celtics are following.

Am I expecting a ring before 2020? No.

I am expecting a lot of competitive, entertaining basketball though.

[ConnerHenry]

Based on what Hardaway got from the Knicks, IT4 has every reason to feel this way

[PAOBoston]

Considering some of the scrubinos that got paid last year and this year, it's hard to say IT does not deserve max money.

That being said,  I would not offer him max years. I'd gladly overpay in dollars per year to limit his term in years (something like the Lowry deal).

[Moranis]

Considering some of the scrubinos that got paid last year and this year, it's hard to say IT does not deserve max money.

That being said,  I would not offer him max years. I'd gladly overpay in dollars per year to limit his term in years (something like the Lowry deal).

The problem is all those guys did get paid so there are going to be very few teams that even have the ability to offer Thomas a max contract and how many of those teams actually would (they may have a PG, they may be rebuilding, etc.).  It would take a really unique situation for Thomas to get offered a max contract next year, and I wouldn't bet on that situation coming to fruition.

[PAOBoston]

Considering some of the scrubinos that got paid last year and this year, it's hard to say IT does not deserve max money.

That being said,  I would not offer him max years. I'd gladly overpay in dollars per year to limit his term in years (something like the Lowry deal).

The problem is all those guys did get paid so there are going to be very few teams that even have the ability to offer Thomas a max contract and how many of those teams actually would (they may have a PG, they may be rebuilding, etc.).  It would take a really unique situation for Thomas to get offered a max contract next year, and I wouldn't bet on that situation coming to fruition.

Don't really disagree. My initial thought a couple of months ago was let him hit FA and see what offers are out there. My gut tells me he won't find the type of deals he is expecting (from good teams at least; there's always dumb teams like the Knicks or Brooklyn). I still don't believe the C's would offer him a 5 year deal. As I said earlier, less years but more money per year. Gets paid like a max player but only for a few years. And that way, you don't have the worry about long term durability etc

[SHAQATTACK]

Considering some of the scrubinos that got paid last year and this year, it's hard to say IT does not deserve max money.

That being said,  I would not offer him max years. I'd gladly overpay in dollars per year to limit his term in years (something like the Lowry deal).

The problem is all those guys did get paid so there are going to be very few teams that even have the ability to offer Thomas a max contract and how many of those teams actually would (they may have a PG, they may be rebuilding, etc.).  It would take a really unique situation for Thomas to get offered a max contract next year, and I wouldn't bet on that situation coming to fruition.

i agree with all your post.   i don't see anybody offering IT a max contract .  He has a problem with his hip that might cost him 30-40 million eventually.  If he fails to deliver because of his hip or misses most of the season or playoffs .....then im done .....he had an opportunity to repair his hip. They do not repair themselfs .   i got a bad feeling about his hip actually being better,  i bet the swelling and pain return in no time.   Nobody is going to pay squat for IT ..if that hip goes out again ...5 ' 7 " guy with a bad hip ...thats a max deal for sure.....and he'll be a year older with a rehab ....smh ....and our trade value goes to peanuts as well.   We will. see. I hope DA has a contingency plan .....which i hoped was Fultz....oh well.

his brinks truck ....might be a hospital ambulance......if that hip tear ....gets worse or aggrevated .

[PaulP34]

Isaiah is not getting a Max deal. I will keep it simple. 3 reasons why IT dont get a max deal by Ainge.

#1 Haywards arival helps Horford and Crowder more and hurts Isaiahs % of getting to the basket. Call it perfect timing if u want but IT value drops this year.

#2 his hip will slow him down and he will lose a step. That type of injury, even at its most mild stage, will slow him down. After he refused the surgery, he may still play at a good pace but expect his buckets to go down and his assists to go up. This supose to be a contract year for him, wont match last years accomplishments.

#3 Danny Ainge is a smart man. He knows adding Hayward will help Crowder and Horfords numbers go up and Isaiahs numbers to go down. Its a business and Ainge cant have more then 2 max deals on this team and keep his core and bench intact and be a contender. IT will be offered a fair amount but not a max. IT will have to sign or walk. Danny can replace IT with a facilitator especially if he puts weapons around it. Like he did with Rondo.

No Max for Isaiah n i will put $ on that

[jambr380]

No way IT gets 5 years - let's just start with that. No other team can offer him 5 years so we won't either.

I am also in the camp of letting him test the market. It will be interesting to see what really matters to him moving forward. I am sure a team like BKN may go 4 year full max, but will that be worth it to him? What other teams really need a PG and are willing to build their entire team around his lack of defense?

IT will definitely get his Brinks truck to the tune of $20M+/yr from the Cs over at least 3 years, but he will have to make a decision whether competing for a championship really matters to him or not because I see no way Danny does a full 5 year (or 4 year) max. No way.

[nickagneta]

Ainge has already jokingly talked about fans that worry about where the Celtics are going to get the money to pay players in the future. Paraphrasing he said let him and ownership worry about how much they pay the players.

I think IT is a 4 year max contract guy. I think ownership is going to pay IT unless they are worried about long term health. As for luxury tax...they have been making loads of money the last few years while rebuilding and simultaneously going to the playoffs and being right around the salary cap. I could see ownership easily paying two years of tax to take a shot at the Finals.

[mutineer33]

As with most things in life ...... buy low, sell high.

IT has earned a max contract based on how he has performed over the past few years.  You really have to respect what he has accomplished on the court plus the way he made himself the face of the team with his unbridled enthusiasm and over achiever status. He DESERVES to be paid.

Now on to the cold hard reality of running a (Hopefully) championship caliber franchise:

He will be 29 years old by the time his new contact begins. He is a player who relies almost exclusively on his quickness as his most useful physical asset.  Quickness is the physical trait that deteriorates the fastest in the NBA.  He has a lingering hip injury which was serious enough to bounce him from the playoffs.  He is a very small player by NBA standards and take a physical beating.  He is already a big defensive liability.

Ainge will look at how IT's contributions project over the life of any new contract.   IT might have a couple years of peak basketball left but this is a risky assumption. If you look at the career arc of PGs 6'1" and under, the results are pretty bleak in terms of rapid decline. Smaller PGs tend to peak at age 26 then rapidly decline.  Larger PGs peak at age 30. Great article here: Scroll half way downhttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs.

Simply put,  a max deal for IT seemss to be a terrible investment looking forward. 

As much as his past performance might have "earned" him a visit from the brinks truck, Ainge will be looking forward.  In the best case for IT, he is a $20 million a year player moving forward. He probably projects better later in any new contract as an "instant offense" 6th man, rather than the almost MVP level player he was last year.  The wildcard is IT's  hip injury.  This is very unfortunate timing for him and could depress his value lower.

We will just have to see how this has all played out by the end of next season.  Ainge will not look to trade him, as it would be far too disruptive to the team this year, not to mention how depressed trade value will be due to the injury.

Somewhere over the course of the year, we will know if he needs surgery or if the injury is eroding his performance. Ainge and IT will then sit down and talk business. 

If IT's injury concerns remain,  he still might be resigned on a fan favorite discount.  If he has another big year he still will not get a max from Boston, because all the metrics indicate that would be foolish for a team looking to be a perrenial championship contender. A this point IT will need to move on if  he wants anything close to a max. A desperate team needing a high profile player as a face to their franchise, just might offer it.

[OldSchoolDude]

Ainge has already jokingly talked about fans that worry about where the Celtics are going to get the money to pay players in the future. Paraphrasing he said let him and ownership worry about how much they pay the players.

I think IT is a 4 year max contract guy. I think ownership is going to pay IT unless they are worried about long term health. As for luxury tax...they have been making loads of money the last few years while rebuilding and simultaneously going to the playoffs and being right around the salary cap. I could see ownership easily paying two years of tax to take a shot at the Finals.

They're not paying the tax for just a chance to make it to the finals.
I believe they went into the tax with Pierce and KG to try and win again, with a really good chance.  There not paying the tax to get smoked by the GSW.  They need a real chance and this team isn't good enough.  Either Curry or Clay will rain 3's down over IT all series long.  If we play GSW with IT in the finals who is IT going to guard.   

We have other people who can score and play defence now, so despite all that IT achived last year he actually hurts us more than he helps us now.  This team has changed a lot and it's not done changing.  Think about it, we are changing about 2/3 of our team this summer.  As badly as we needed IT last year and the year before, we don't need him as bad this year.  Can we use his scoring, sure we can.  But is his scoring going to out weigh his defence, I don't think it does this year and into the future. 

I believe IT is skipping surgery because he is afraid that if he doesn't come back until December and isn't full strength until say January, everyone will realize that this year the team is better off without him. 

[CelticSince83]

As with most things in life ...... buy low, sell high.

IT, has earned a max contract based on how he has performed over the past few years.  You really have to respect what he has accomplished on the court plus the way he made himself the face of the team with his unbridled enthusiasm and over achiever status. He DESERVES to be paid.

Now on to the cold hard reality of running a (Hopefully) championship caliber franchise:

He will be 29 years old by the time his new contact begins. He is a player who relies almost exclusively on his quickness as his most useful physical asset.  Quickness is the physical trait that detioriates the fastest in the NBA.  He has a lingering hip injury which was serious enough to bounce him from the playoffs.  He is a very small player by NBA standards and take a physical beating.  He is already a big defensive liability.

Ainge will look at what his team projects IT's contributions to be over the life of any new contract.   IT might have a couple years of peak basketball left but this is a a risky assumption. If you look at the career arc of PGs 6'1" and under, the results are pretty bleak in terms of rapid decline. Smaller PGs tend to peak at age 26 then rapidly decline.  Larger PGs peak at age 30. Great article here: Scroll half way downhttp://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19525455/kevin-pelton-weekly-mailbag-including-point-guard-career-arcs.

Simply put,  a max deal for IT seemss to be a terrible investment looking forward. 

As much as his past performance might have "earned" him a visit from the brinks truck, Ainge will be looking forward.  In the best case for him, he is a $20 million a year player moving forward. He probably projects better later in any new contract as an "instant offence" 6th man, rather than the almost MVP level player he was last year.  The wildcard is IT's  hip injury.  This is very unfortunate timing for him and could depress his value lower.

We will just have to see how this has all played out by the end of next season.  Ainge will not look to trade him, as it would be far too disruptive to the team this year, not to mention his depressed trade value will be due to the injury.

Somewhere over the course of the year, we will know if he needs surgery or is the injury eroding his performance. Ainge and IT will then sit down and talk business. 

If IT's injury concerns remain,  he might be resigned on a fan favorite discount.  If he has another big year he still will not get a max from Boston, because all the metrics indicate that would be foolish for a team looking to be a perrenial championship contender. A this point IT will need to move on if  he wants anything close to a max.

Finally. 

[Sketch5]

Isaiah is not getting a Max deal. I will keep it simple. 3 reasons why IT dont get a max deal by Ainge.

#1 Haywards arival helps Horford and Crowder more and hurts Isaiahs % of getting to the basket. Call it perfect timing if u want but IT value drops this year.

#2 his hip will slow him down and he will lose a step. That type of injury, even at its most mild stage, will slow him down. After he refused the surgery, he may still play at a good pace but expect his buckets to go down and his assists to go up. This supose to be a contract year for him, wont match last years accomplishments.

#3 Danny Ainge is a smart man. He knows adding Hayward will help Crowder and Horfords numbers go up and Isaiahs numbers to go down. Its a business and Ainge cant have more then 2 max deals on this team and keep his core and bench intact and be a contender. IT will be offered a fair amount but not a max. IT will have to sign or walk. Danny can replace IT with a facilitator especially if he puts weapons around it. Like he did with Rondo.

No Max for Isaiah n i will put $ on that

People keep bringing this up with certainty with out knowing the injury or where he's at with it. And ACL much worse to come back from. If the end of his hip bone is miss shaped, most likely this would have happened sooner, if it's slightly miss shaped, some surgery will be needed, but that should have been seen in the MRI unless there was too much swelling, then is should be seen with the one coming up.

What most likely happened is  that IT hurt or tweeked his hip at some point and instead of taking a couple weeks off, he kept playing. Problem with this the joint is all tissue, and swelling wont go down with out popper rest and is extremely painful. if it swells too much the bone starts to rub and tern into it, and that causes more pain and swelling. He played months like that until his body said no more and forced the shut down. Because he didn't take care of it sooner, it became a bigger issues.

Since he's young, it shouldn't effect his play long term as long as he does exactly what the Docs tell him to do, which is keep it shut down until all the swelling is gone. The tissue that is inflamed and teared isn't like an ACL that is a stabilizer, it helps keep the hop bone in place but not connected. Kinda like foam packaging. Has very little to do with strength of the leg, so his movement should be fine.

Now if there is an issue with the bone, there will be some set back, mostly from the actual surgery, not what the surgery is fixing. They'd have to round out the bone, and some muscles and tendons may get stretched during this, and thats were you may have a slight decrease in movement, because a lot of surgeries tend to do this from the healing factor. Don't always come out 100% from it.

So if the bone is good, no surgery unless the tear isn't healing like is should for some reason. So unless thats the case, the injury isn't anything worse long term than a sprained ankle.

[Th3M2n]

There is literally 0 chance we give IT the max....zero, zilch, nada...not a chance in hell.

[Sketch5]

There is literally 0 chance we give IT the max....zero, zilch, nada...not a chance in hell.

That's a big statement. You can speculate, or have a feeling, or opinion that they won't give him max. But I have a felling you don't work in the front office, so you literary don't know that.

Scal said he could get max dollars, but not max years. They'll time Horrors,Hayward, and IT's contracts when they have to reup Brown, Tatum, and the 2018pick contracts.

Also, its going to depend on cap. What IT would have gotten over the last two years may not happen next. Might be way less than guys are getting noe. But I wouldn't be surprised at around 25mill for 3years.