Data Dive: As FA Option #3, Paul Millsap better than we think?

[obnoxiousmime]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?

It's hard to know because we don't know what years/salary each player will command. The preference is to sign someone worthy of a max deal. Then you look at the secondary players and hope they're not all getting massively overpaid. Flexibility is the most important to me - players who have been overpaid are hard to unload in case you need to make a deal.

The Amir Johnson signing a couple years back is a good example of a reasonable, flexible deal for a solid, average player. I know that's not exciting but I think the top names right below the "stars" are all going to be given big deals, like JaMychal Green, Ilyasova, Monroe, those types.

If we strike out on Hayward and Green and other B-level free agents are too expensive, I'd be willing to go back to Millsap and see if he'd sign a two-year deal at a discount for a chance to play for a "contender" (or as close as you can be in the LeBron/Warriors era).

[smokeablount]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?

It's hard to know because we don't know what years/salary each player will command. The preference is to sign someone worthy of a max deal. Then you look at the secondary players and hope they're not all getting massively overpaid. Flexibility is the most important to me - players who have been overpaid are hard to unload in case you need to make a deal.

The Amir Johnson signing a couple years back is a good example of a reasonable, flexible deal for a solid, average player. I know that's not exciting but I think the top names right below the "stars" are all going to be given big deals, like JaMychal Green, Ilyasova, Monroe, those types.

If we strike out on Hayward and Green and other B-level free agents are too expensive, I'd be willing to go back to Millsap and see if he'd sign a two-year deal at a discount for a chance to play for a "contender" (or as close as you can be in the LeBron/Warriors era).

Let me rephrase. Among the 2017 free agents, who besides Hayward and Blake is more worthy of a max than Paul Millsap. I know that we want a worthy max guy. I'm asking you who that is.

[crimson_stallion]

Absolutely not.

Under no circumstances do I have any interest whatsoever in paying over $30M a year for a 30+ year old 6'7" PF who does not move the needle, and who never has on any team he's ever played for.

Can we move on, please?

[crimson_stallion]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?

It's hard to know because we don't know what years/salary each player will command. The preference is to sign someone worthy of a max deal. Then you look at the secondary players and hope they're not all getting massively overpaid. Flexibility is the most important to me - players who have been overpaid are hard to unload in case you need to make a deal.

The Amir Johnson signing a couple years back is a good example of a reasonable, flexible deal for a solid, average player. I know that's not exciting but I think the top names right below the "stars" are all going to be given big deals, like JaMychal Green, Ilyasova, Monroe, those types.

If we strike out on Hayward and Green and other B-level free agents are too expensive, I'd be willing to go back to Millsap and see if he'd sign a two-year deal at a discount for a chance to play for a "contender" (or as close as you can be in the LeBron/Warriors era).

Let me rephrase. Among the 2017 free agents, who besides Hayward and Blake is more worthy of a max than Paul Millsap. I know that we want a worthy max guy. I'm asking you who that is.

If you do not have a max-worthy guy on the market, then you do not throw out a max deal at the next best guy just "because you can".

If there is a max-worthy guy on the market who also fits your teams needs, and it's direction, then you pay a max to that guy. 

Millsap is not that guy.  He's a good player, but he's not good enough to be worth a max contract, he doesn't fit our team needs (size, rebounding), and he doesn't fit our team direction (too old). 

Let somebody else cripple themselves for this ageing semi-star, please.

[obnoxiousmime]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?

It's hard to know because we don't know what years/salary each player will command. The preference is to sign someone worthy of a max deal. Then you look at the secondary players and hope they're not all getting massively overpaid. Flexibility is the most important to me - players who have been overpaid are hard to unload in case you need to make a deal.

The Amir Johnson signing a couple years back is a good example of a reasonable, flexible deal for a solid, average player. I know that's not exciting but I think the top names right below the "stars" are all going to be given big deals, like JaMychal Green, Ilyasova, Monroe, those types.

If we strike out on Hayward and Green and other B-level free agents are too expensive, I'd be willing to go back to Millsap and see if he'd sign a two-year deal at a discount for a chance to play for a "contender" (or as close as you can be in the LeBron/Warriors era).

Let me rephrase. Among the 2017 free agents, who besides Hayward and Blake is more worthy of a max than Paul Millsap. I know that we want a worthy max guy. I'm asking you who that is.

Oh. Besides Hayward, I don't think anybody is worth the max. It's OK to not be able to find someone worth that money, you just have to spend it on multiple players instead, making sure that each contract is not a bad one that would hurt you in the future.

[Somebody]

I think Griffin is worth a 3+1 max deal if our medical staff clears him.

[LilRip]

Millsap is like Horford. Hes an all star level glue guy who does everything well and makes guys better. You'd love to have a guy like that on your team. Problem is, we already have Horford who fills that role. You don't want 2 guys like that on your team (unless you had unlimited resources).

[smokeablount]

I don't think anybody questions his fit at all. The entire concern is due to his age. This is the last time we will have cap space for awhile and people want a player who is not just ready to contribute now but will be in the next couple years when LeBron is older. Millsap doesn't work with that timetable.

The other thing is, due to his age he would be less tradeable through the course of his contract. If we signed someone younger like Hayward, at the very least we'd always be able to deal him for something coming back (remember, we are going to be over the cap soon). With Millsap you aren't going to get anything back, this is his last big deal. When his next contract expires he'll probably be close to retirement age.

He is basically the same age (within 40 days) as LeBron. If you think we are ready to beat the Cavs and Warriors the next couple seasons, then signing Millsap is a good move. Otherwise, it's best to sign someone who will still be in their peak 3, 4, 5 seasons down the line when LeBron will be 35, 36, and 37 years old.

Yes, obviously we'd rather have Hayward.  And maybe Griffin.  That was in the original post.  So besides those 2 guys, who do you target before Millsap if Plan A&B fall through?

It's hard to know because we don't know what years/salary each player will command. The preference is to sign someone worthy of a max deal. Then you look at the secondary players and hope they're not all getting massively overpaid. Flexibility is the most important to me - players who have been overpaid are hard to unload in case you need to make a deal.

The Amir Johnson signing a couple years back is a good example of a reasonable, flexible deal for a solid, average player. I know that's not exciting but I think the top names right below the "stars" are all going to be given big deals, like JaMychal Green, Ilyasova, Monroe, those types.

If we strike out on Hayward and Green and other B-level free agents are too expensive, I'd be willing to go back to Millsap and see if he'd sign a two-year deal at a discount for a chance to play for a "contender" (or as close as you can be in the LeBron/Warriors era).

Let me rephrase. Among the 2017 free agents, who besides Hayward and Blake is more worthy of a max than Paul Millsap. I know that we want a worthy max guy. I'm asking you who that is.

Oh. Besides Hayward, I don't think anybody is worth the max. It's OK to not be able to find someone worth that money, you just have to spend it on multiple players instead, making sure that each contract is not a bad one that would hurt you in the future.

Ok, that's fair.  I gotcha.

[smokeablount]

Absolutely not.

Under no circumstances do I have any interest whatsoever in paying over $30M a year for a 30+ year old 6'7" PF who does not move the needle, and who never has on any team he's ever played for.

Can we move on, please?

By that logic, IT doesn't move the needle cuz Millsap made the ECF 2 years ago, Hayward doesn't move the needle cuz he's never made a conference finals and is prolly less of an upgrade over Jaylen/Jae/AB than Millsap over Amir... and there's maybe 5 players that move the needle.

I may be biased as a season ticket holder, but if it doesn't cripple the team financially or sacrifice the future, I'd like to see them add an A- player for free the only year they can do so. 

If we could get Millsap for 2-3 years, <22 million per, so he came off the books with Horford and Crowder (our next and only soon chance at a max guy besides this year)- what then?

[mmmmm]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin.

Like I said, it's only a slight decline and it may have as much to do with sharing the court with Dwight Howard every night. But he did post his lowest rebounding average in 4 years and the worst FG% of his career and, to my eye, he's slowed down a tick. And he's 32. This is when these things happen.

Both his offensive rebound rate and his FG% dropped as direct result of playing so much with Howard.  Howard plays almost exclusively in the paint, though forcing Millsap to play farther from the basket.

Millsap had been rock-steady over the prior 6 seasons at shooting some 34-37% of his shots within 3 feet of the hoop.  With Howard on board, he shot only 25.4% of his shots within that range.  He took his highest share of shots from 3PT range ever.  So it is only natural that both his FG% and offensive rebound rates would drop.

He still maintained a very good 54.2% TS% and 48.1% eFG%.  And his _defensive_ rebounding rate stayed pretty much the same as it has been for most of his career.  19.5% is pretty much a negligible change from his 20.3% career rate.

I don't want to go all-out and pay a full max for Millsap, but he is worth a lot and would be a huge upgrade to our front-court.

[snively]

I would be very happy with Millsap.

Good short term option to put alongside Horford, IT, Bradley and Crowder. Let Jaylen, Fultz, Smart, Yabusele and Zizic grow off the bench.

Strong team in the here and now with a bright future ahead of it as well.

Why spend so much money on aging players who have proven to be no match for Cleveland? Why not start giving more responsibility to the guys that are the team's future?

Using elite prospects as peripheral bench help would make sense if we had a real contender a la Detroit w/ Darko, but we're not a real heavyweight. I think it's better to fast-forward Fultz and Brown's development and spend some of the FA money on a piece that won't be falling apart as they are coming into their own.

I see the issue with paying IT and Bradley because Fultz needs to start.

I don't see one with Millsap though. The Celtics are short on talent at PF and Yabusele looks a long term project to my eyes (due to his bad defense). Also, I think Millsap would be a great mentor to Yabusele.

I don't see Crowder as an issue because he can move to the bench once Jaylen is ready to start. Probably at least another year away from that.

-------------------------------

In terms of Cleveland ... I would just keep slogging away. Keep trying to improve the talent base piece by piece. Try to close the gap.

That gap could close further in a lot of ways. Development of young talent. Decline or injuries to Cleveland leaving Boston as beast of the East. Or a big trade further down the line.

Just try to maximize the talent base. The team is already so far along and has fantastic flexibility to challenge for titles down the road with or without further rebuilding (trading vets to provide more opportunity for youngsters).

I think the choices with the frontcourt and backcourt are linked. If we go Millsap, the temptation will be to resign AB and IT (bad not just because it blocks Fultz but because it cements our tininess across the board with an already badly undersized frontline). Going into 2018 with a 21 year old Fultz, still with some growing pains, leading a frontcourt tandem of mid-30's ex-All-Stars just seems like an awkward fit.

If we're willing to make the right choices on AB or IT then I'm okay with Millsap.

[Rosco917]

Hayward IMO is the important goal. 27 years old, still has more upside to give, he really creates his own offense well. He has nice size. No health issues. He'll still be young as Fultz hopefully matures.     

The IT/PG question will have to be answered sooner or later. But in the mean time I'd also like to be getting some normal, quality positional size. The C's need the ability to play small, and big, and do both well.

I'd like to get a true center, and use Horford as a stretch 4.



 

[Big333223]

Millsap is an undersized PF already in decline (or maybe that's just from playing with Dwight Howard) at age 32. This is his last chance at getting a big money deal and there are enough teams with enough money out there that someone will offer it. Does anyone really want the Celtics to be the team that's paying Paul Millsap $30 million a year when he's 35 years old, averaging 14 and 6 and there's another whole year left on his contract?

No thanks.

Explain how he's in decline when he just posted career highs in points, assists, free throw rate, and free throw attempts (and nearly %).  He's the best player on a top 5 team in the East. 

Are you dismissing all that because his percentages dropped a bit for a single year?  Or citing his defense because it dropped off from arguably being #1 in the world according to win shares?

I'd really like to know how he's on the decline, and who's gonna pay him 30mm/year. 

You know who the stats and eye test actually says is on the decline?  Blake Griffin.

Like I said, it's only a slight decline and it may have as much to do with sharing the court with Dwight Howard every night. But he did post his lowest rebounding average in 4 years and the worst FG% of his career and, to my eye, he's slowed down a tick. And he's 32. This is when these things happen.

As for who is going to pay him $30 mil? For context, the Hornets are paying Nic Batum $24 mil a year for 5 years. The Grizzlies paid Chandler Parsons $25 mil a year for 4 years even though they knew there was a good chance his knees were toast. Bench players like Bismack Biyombo, Timofey Mozgov, and Evan Turner got long term deals in the neighborhood of $17 mil a year.

This summer, the cap is going up again. There are debates about whether or not Otto Porter is a max player. Would I pay Millsap $30 mil a year for 4 years? Obviously I wouldn't. But the state of the NBA right now makes me think someone will.

I get where you're coming from but of all the guys you mentioned, how old is the oldest one, and how old is the second oldest?

Mozgov is 30, ET, Parsons, and Batum are all 28. Biyombo is (allegedly) 24. And you can also throw in Luol Deng who is 31 and got signed for $18 mil a year.

I read cap was actually going down next season.

The cap for next year is probably going to be a little lower than it was originally projected to be but it's still going to be higher than it was this past year. Maybe that's what you read.